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Post by therealriga on Sept 25, 2022 16:12:43 GMT
Latvia has its parliamentary election for the 100 members of the unicameral Saeima this weekend. 5% threshold open list PR. The election obviously takes place against the backdrop of the Ukraine war and cost of living crisis. As ever, the party system has fragmented a bit since the last election, with both the largest parties last time splitting, the 3rd party seemingly below the threshold and in danger of wipeout. Two other coalition parties are doing fine though, with the expected result being a continuation of much of the existing government.
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Post by therealriga on Sept 25, 2022 17:12:06 GMT
This was the latest poll, though nearly a quarter surveyed were undecided, with the provisional seats in brackets and some quick notes on the parties. New Unity 21.4% (29 seats) - centre/centre right. Were the 7th (and smallest) party in parliament last time but managed to retain the PM role as part of a compromise. The current PM Karins is often criticised for being indecisive so it's not certain he'll continue. Currently 11 deputies gaining 3 defectors and it looks like they'll substantially increase that. National Alliance 11.3 (16) - Latvian. Strongly anti-Russian. Socially right wing but state interventionist on measures to help families, students etc. Currently 13 deputies. United List 8.4 (12) - Regionalist, Green, Conservative. Currently 4 deputies. Split from Greens and Farmers due to disquiet with that party's oligarch leader. Often opposes a "Riga metropolitan elite" Harmony 7.3 (10) - Russian minority, social democratic, tends left on economics, right on social issues. Opposes Ukraine war calling for negotiated end. Currently largest party with 18 seats. Most of the Latvian parties refused to work with them even before this year so it's highly likely they'll remain in opposition. Greens Farmers 11.6 (16) - Agrarian, conservative. Currently 7 deputies. Led by controversial oligarch Aivars Lembergs. The name is a misnomer as the Green part left to form United List. Lembergs' presence means most other parties refuse to work with them so they're unlikely to be part of any coalition. Progressives 7.6 (10) - left/centre left on both economics and social issues. Development/For 5.2 (7) - Latvian, liberal, centre, pro-Europe. Currently has 14 seats. Largest party on Riga city council. Their lead candidate Pabriks has been suggested as a possible compromise PM candidate. -------------------- For Each and Every One 4.3 - Right wing populist. One of several successors to Who Owns The State? Led By Aldis Gobzems a controversial figure who was 2nd choice to be PM last time but who was even refused security clearance amidst corruption allegations. Open to working with Russian parties. Previous polls had them around 3.5% so this is the highest. Latvia First 4.3 - Right wing populist, led by veteran oligarch and one time Deputy PM Ainars Slesers who previously formed coalition with the Russian Harmony party in Riga and 2 of its founding deputies were from Harmony but they split when the party opted to strongly support Ukraine. Currently 2 deputies. Opposed all Covid measures. Previous polls showed them 4.0 - 4.8% range so they've a chance. Stability 4.1 - Russian minority, split from Harmony. Populist, opposed Covid measures and has been quiet on the Ukraine war which has been interpreted as pro-Kremlin. Previous polls had them just over the 5% threshold. Latvian Russian Union 4.0 - Russian minority, the most unapologetically pro Kremlin on the ballot. Earlier polls had them in the 4.8-5.2% range. Conservatives 3.3 - Conservative, pro-European. Currently 2nd largest party and their leader was expected to be Prime Minister last time but couldn't get the support. Collapsed due to making no headway on an anti-corruption agenda and National Alliance covers the same base. Sovereign Power 1.5 - Christian right, both its 2 deputies were previously in Harmony. Leader Stepanenko has been vocal on "traditional family values." Republicans (<1.5) Centrist, constitutional reform. One of many splinter parties from Who Owns The State. Currently 1 deputy who will very likely be unemployed soon For a Humane Latvia (<1.5) Conservative, right wing populist. 1 deputy previously in Who Owns The State. No chance of getting back in. There's more detail on all those and another 4 parties who are below the 1.5% and have no deputies here: eng.lsm.lv/article/politics/election/saeima-elections-2022-all-the-parties-part-1.a471458/eng.lsm.lv/article/politics/election/saeima-elections-2022-all-the-parties-part-2.a472204/eng.lsm.lv/article/politics/election/saeima-elections-2022-all-the-parties-part-3.a472293/eng.lsm.lv/article/politics/election/saeima-elections-2022-all-the-parties-part-4.a472417/ |
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Post by John Chanin on Sept 25, 2022 17:45:17 GMT
That is serious fragmentation, plus much upheaval. What do you think the likely outcome is in terms of ruling coalition and prime minister?
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Post by therealriga on Sept 26, 2022 6:35:26 GMT
That is serious fragmentation, plus much upheaval. What do you think the likely outcome is in terms of ruling coalition and prime minister? It is unfortunately standard. 45 of the 100 seats at the last election were won by parties unrepresented in the previous Saiema. In 2014 it was 15 seats and in 2011 it was 22 seats. Latvia and Lithuania lead the way in party system instability. /photo/1 |
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Post by therealriga on Sept 26, 2022 6:46:02 GMT
As for likely outcome, the 2 largest parties in polls, Unity and National Alliance continue in government and then it depends on how many the others get. Development/For is the most likely coalition partner and part of the current coalition too. However it depends how many seats they get. Given the instability in parties, coalitions generally want to be closer to late 50s in terms of seats.
Conservatives would be included if they pass the 5% but that's looking doubtful. United List probably next likely, though some of their members are not fans of Unity and may make ditching the current PM Karins the price of cooperation. Progressives possible, but would make uncomfortable bedfellows with National Alliance due to their social liberalism.
A four-party coalition of Unity, National Alliance, United List and Development/For would be my best guess. Karins probably continues as PM but would not surprise if he was replaced either just after the election or midway through the term.
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 1, 2022 18:32:43 GMT
The Elec.Commission will release numbers not before midNight. An exitPoll conducted in pollingStations and relying on nearly 6.500 voters came to this:  |
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Post by therealriga on Oct 1, 2022 19:47:33 GMT
Harmony (Saskana) missing out would be a surprise and not good since they were relatively speaking the most anti-Kremlin of the Russian parties.
Seats based on that would be
Unity 29
United List 15
Greens Farmers 14
National Alliance 11
Progressives 11
For Stability 7
Latvia First 7
Development/For 6
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Post by rcronald on Oct 2, 2022 3:54:58 GMT
Results with 71% in
JV-25
ZZS-17
AS-14
NA-13
S!-12
P-10
LPV-9
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Post by rcronald on Oct 2, 2022 5:33:30 GMT
Almost all of the remaining vote is in Riga, and I don't think that Development/For is going to end up above the threshold, as they have 5.03% in the national vote and 3.8% in Riga. Harmony on the other hand...
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 2, 2022 6:26:39 GMT
As they belong unfortunately to that group of countries, where the counting is not conducted openly with results permanently streaming in, something else - the nationality of candidates:  |
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Post by therealriga on Oct 2, 2022 7:29:13 GMT
Almost all of the remaining vote is in Riga, and I don't think that Development/For is going to end up above the threshold, as they have 5.03% in the national vote and 3.8% in Riga. Harmony on the other hand... The remaining "Riga vote" will mostly be the expat vote which is counted in the Riga district. That will break somewhat differently from how people resident in Riga vote. Last time, Development/For did slightly better with that vote, but it's touch and go with them on 5.02%. Harmony did very badly with that vote last time getting 6.45% compared to 19.8% overall, so I can't see it bringing them up as they would need nearly 12% of it to get them above the threshold. The populist KPV did well with that vote last time, so it may help other populists gain a seat. 2018 results abroad: sv2018.cvk.lv/pub/ElectionResults?locationId=OsZ8k8LdxvFTNYno4Tf1Ww%3D%3D2018 results from Riga residents: sv2018.cvk.lv/pub/ElectionResults?locationId=kSwjKtzrn9aN0T%2FgZmP4mA%3D%3D |
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Post by therealriga on Oct 2, 2022 7:41:42 GMT
Incidentally, Unity (JV) topping the poll with, currently, 18.9%. I believe that would be the lowest winning percentage not only in a national parliamentary election in Latvia, but in the entire EU/EEA 30 this century. The other lows I can find where the winning party/grouping had below 20% are Slovakia 2002 with 19.5%, Lithuania 2008 with 19.7% and Latvia 2018 with 19.9%.
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Post by therealriga on Oct 2, 2022 11:36:12 GMT
Almost all of the remaining vote is in Riga, and I don't think that Development/For is going to end up above the threshold, as they have 5.03% in the national vote and 3.8% in Riga. Harmony on the other hand... Now 98.6% counted and Attīstībai/Par! (Development/For) have declined as the expat vote has been counted, now 13 votes below the threshold. It does look like they're going to miss out. They had the health ministry last term but the Health Minister has lost his seat anyway even if they pass the 5%. Other cabinet casualties: Conservatives lost all their seats so Jānis Bordāns (Deputy PM, Justice Minister) Anita Muižniece (Education and science) Gatis Eglītis (Welfare) Tālis Linkaits (Transport) Unity Janis Reirs (Finance) finished 4th in Zemgale where they won 3 seats. Under threat if they miss 5% Development/For Artis Pabriks (Deputy PM, Defence) Marija Golubeva (Interior) Artūrs Toms Plešs (Environment and Regional Development) So 6 cabinet members out of 14 definitely out, with 3 more likely. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 2, 2022 12:29:29 GMT
Does this mean that a plurality of Russian speakers probably chose non-Russophone parties?
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Post by WJ on Oct 2, 2022 12:31:35 GMT
Or chose not to vote at all. What was turnout like this time?
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 2, 2022 13:40:11 GMT
Or chose not to vote at all. What was turnout like this time? 58% |
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Post by Merseymike on Oct 2, 2022 13:44:35 GMT
Or chose not to vote at all. What was turnout like this time? 58% Low, then. I did wonder, looking at the description of the different parties, why so many who appeared to have very little difference between them, were needed. |
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Post by therealriga on Oct 2, 2022 15:26:37 GMT
Does this mean that a plurality of Russian speakers probably chose non-Russophone parties? No, absolutely not. In the population there are 24.4% Russians and 3.1% Belarusians who would be the main market for Russophones. However those in the "Latvian non-citizenship passport" who are basically older Russians who haven't passed language tests, make up 9.6% of the population and can't vote. Last time Saskana (Harmony) and the Latvian Russian Union got 23.14%. This time those two plus Stability and Sovereign Power Suverēnā vara got 18.4%. If anything it looks like the overwhelming majority of Russophones voted for those parties both last time and this time, but Latvian speakers who voted for those parties switched. The latter group includes people who voted for Harmony because they had a more left of centre economic policy and older Latvians who grew up mainly in the USSR are suspicious of the west and buy into the idea that the Ukraine situation is all the fault of the US/NATO. Looking at turnout, on the contrary Russophones seem to have turned out more than last time. In more ethnically Russian towns turnout increased from 51.6% to 67% in Rezekne, 41.7% to 57% in Daugavpils and 41.9% to 53.7% in Ludza county. Many of those who changed from the Russophone parties will have switched, paradoxically as it sounds, to Latvia First, as their leader Ainars Slesers previously worked in coalition with Harmony on Riga council and spent much of the previous term positioning himself with anti-vaxxers, a tendency favoured by Russians here more than Latvians. |
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Post by therealriga on Oct 2, 2022 15:33:15 GMT
Low, then. I did wonder, looking at the description of the different parties, why so many who appeared to have very little difference between them, were needed. Yes, but 58.7% this time compared to 54.6% last time, so an increase. You're right on the other point, there are several who cover broadly similar ground. The only reason I can think of is that parties who get 2% of the vote qualify for state funding, which acts to preserve vanity vehicles in some cases. |
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Post by Merseymike on Oct 2, 2022 15:35:27 GMT
Does this mean that a plurality of Russian speakers probably chose non-Russophone parties? No, absolutely not. In the population there are 24.4% Russians and 3.1% Belarusians who would be the main market for Russophones. However those in the "Latvian non-citizenship passport" who are basically older Russians who haven't passed language tests, make up 9.6% of the population and can't vote. Last time Saskana (Harmony) and the Latvian Russian Union got 23.14%. This time those two plus Stability and Sovereign Power Suverēnā vara got 18.4%. If anything it looks like the overwhelming majority of Russophones voted for those parties both last time and this time, but Latvian speakers who voted for those parties switched. The latter group includes people who voted for Harmony because they had a more left of centre economic policy and older Latvians who grew up mainly in the USSR are suspicious of the west and buy into the idea that the Ukraine situation is all the fault of the US/NATO. Looking at turnout, on the contrary Russophones seem to have turned more than last time. In more ethnically Russian towns turnout increased from 51.6% to 67% in Rezekne, 41.7% to 57% in Daugavpils and 41.9% to 53.7% in Ludza county. Many of those who changed from the Russophone parties will have switched, paradoxically as it sounds, to Latvia First, as their leader Ainars Slesers previously worked in coalition with Harmony on Riga council and spent much of the previous term positioning himself with anti-vaxxers, a tendency favoured by Russians here more than Latvians. 10% of the population - and that would be a higher proportion of the electorate - cannot vote. Sounds like they have effectively been made stateless. It's really hard to look upon this as democratic, in the same way that Ukraine is at best an emerging democracy. |
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