Local Council by-elections 29th September 2022

[Tony Otim]

ARGYLL & BUTE UA; Kintyre & the Islands (Ind died)
Candidates:
AGEER, Gopi (Labour)
MacKENZIE, Kenny (Liberal Democrat)
MacQUARRIE, Lachie (SNP)
REDMAN, Alastair John (Independent)
SKINNER, Tom (Green)
STEWART, Hamish (Conservative)

2022: SNP 863; Ind 680 (McAlpine), 474 (Redman); LD 474; Con 276; Lab 122
2017: SNP 821; Con 648 (Redman); LD 626; Ind 411(McAlpine);Lab 160; Grn 134
2012: SNP 610; Ind 584 (McAlpine); Con 553 (Redman); LD 540; Lab 225; Grn 73; Ind 19
2007: LD 1131; Ind 608 (McAlpine), 342, 190; SNP 482; Con 300; Lab 219

Since the introduction of STV, of the 3 seats in this ward 1 has been held continuously by Robin Currie for the Lib Dems, one has always been held by the SNP and the other has usually been won by John McAlpine as an independent. The exception was 2017, when Alastair Redman took the seat for the Conservatives. He narrowly missed out on holding it this May as an independent (at the expense of Currie for the Lib Dems) and has another go in the by-election. Lachie MacQuarrie was the unsuccessful SNP candidate in Cowal in May.

Current Council: SNP 12; Con 10; Ind 6; LD 5; Grn 1; Lab 1; 1 vacancy



HARBOROUGH DC; Logan (LD resigned)
Candidates:
CUTSFORTH, Robin James (Conservative)
LAMBERT, Robin Andrew (Independent)
PANTER, Maria (Labour)
WHITMORE, Geraldine (Liberal Democrat)

2019: LD 774, 635; Con 587; Grn 389; Ind 242; Lab 198

Robin Lambert was the independent who stood in 2019.

Current council: Con 22; LD 10; Lab 1; 1 vacancy



NEWARK & SHERWOOD DC; Edwinstowe & Clipstone (Con died)
Candidates:
BOOTH, Nigel Jeremy (Conservative)
FREEMAN, Andrew (Labour)

2019:Con 989, 969, 949; Lab 983, 946, 931
2015: Lab 2327, 2264, 2123; Con 1682, 1475, 1389; Ind 814, 752, 479

Current Council: Con 29; Lab 6; LD 2; Ind 1; 1vacancy



OXFORD DC; Hinksey Park (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
GLASS WOODIN, Deborah (Independent)
JOYCE, Callum (TUSC)
POWELL, Alex (Green)
RAILTON, Anna (Labour)
SAUNDERS, Jennifer (Conservative)
TANNER, Rick (Liberal Democrat)

2022: Lab 1118; Grn 369; LD 211; Con 109
2021: Lab 1273, 986; Ind 321; Grn 310, 195; LD 244, 137; Con 128, 122

Vacancy for the 2021-2024 term. Deborah Glass Woodin is the independent who came 3rd last year. Rick Tanner has contested the last two elections here for the Lib Dems. The TUSC, Green and Conservative candidates all stood in other wards in May (Barton & Sandhills, Rose Hill & iffley and Churchill respectively)

Current council: Lab 31; LD 9; Grn 6; Ind 1; 1 vacancy



RHONDDA CYNON TAF UA; Ynysybwl (PC died)
Candidates:
BAXTER, Jeffrey Lee (Green)
EVANS, Paula (Plaid Cymru)
FLOWERDEW, Richard John (Labour)
GRIFFITHS, Lloyd (Conservative)
O’DONOVAN, Jessica Joan (Gwlad)

2022: PC 629, 581; Lab 392, 372; Gwlad 112, 92; Con 70

Richard Flowerdew was the top Labour candidate in May and Jessica O’Donovan was the second Gwlad candidate. The Green stood in Treforest in May and the Conservative in Ferndale & Maerdy.

Current Council: Lab 59; PC 7; Ind 6; Con 2; 1 vacancy



ROSSENDALE DC; Facit & Shawforth (Con resigned)
Candidates:
CHIPPENDALE, Caitlin Louise (Labour)
OLAOLU, Kim Valerie (Independent)
SMITH, Scott (Conservative)
VIJATOV, Alex (Green)

2021: Ind 425; Con 310; Lab 255
2019: Con 425; Lab 346
2016: Lab 381; Con 304; UKIP 200
2015: Con 602; Lab 565; UKIP 436; Community First 207
2012: Ind 512; Con 238; LD 115
2011: Lab 526; Con 429; Grn 148
2008: Con 336; LD 298; BNP 218; Ind 185; Lab 121
2007: Lab 431; LD 393; Con 251
2004: Con 660; Lab 533
2003: Con 422; Lab 372
2002: Lab 550, 527; Con 378, 290

Vacancy is for the 2019-2023 term. Scott Smith stood here for the Conservatives in 2021. He is also county councillor for Whitworth and Bacup division (which contains this ward).


ROSSENDALE DC; Helmshore (Con resigned)
Candidates:
BROCKBANK, Katrina (Green)
HODGKISS, Ann (Conservative)
LOOKER, Neil Anthony (Labour)
NELSON, Steve (Liberal Democrat)
STANSFIELD, David (Independent)

2022: Con 892; Lab 701; Grn 219; Ind 101
2021: Con 1081; Lab 673; Ind 333
2019: Con 1115; Lab 687
2018: Con 1188; Lab 911
2016: Con 1003; Lab 700; Ind 236
2015: Con 1894; Lab 1049; UKIP 423; Grn 175
Oct 14by:Con 771; Lab 444; UKIP 364
2014: Con 1109; Lab 675
2012: Con 674; Lab 566; Ind 548
2011: Con 1167; Lab 846
2010: Con 1969; Lab 1212
Jun 09b: Con 1015; LD 490; Lab 389
2008: Con 975; Lab 320; LD 181; Ind 145
2007: Con 859; Lab 434; LD 244
2006: Con 897; Lab 549; LD 275
2004: Con 1084; Lab 633; LD 500
2003: Con 694; Lab 473; LD 244
2002: Con 763, 748, 666; Lab 716, 714, 627; Ind 405

Vacancy is for the 2019-2023 term. The Green candidate is the same as in May. David Stansfield was the Conservative elected in 2016, who stood unsuccessfully as an independent in 2021 and 2022. He was also county councillor for Rossendale West division (which contains this ward) from 2013-2021, elected as a Conservative and came 3rd as an independent trying to defend the seat last year.

Current Council: Lab 19; Con 9; Ind 3; Community First 2; Grn 1; 2 vacancies



WARRINGTON UA; Grappenhall (2 X LD both resigned)
Candidates:
BROWN, Mark Damen (Liberal Democrat)
DOLAN, Moira (Conservative)
FORD, Philip Martin (Conservative)
HARRIS, Denise Jane (Green)
MATTHEWS, Denis James Thomas (Labour)
SPEED, Helen (Liberal Democrat)

2021: LD 1335, 1136; Con 1052, 803; Lab 261, 258; Grn 194
2016: LD 1306, 1119; Con 565, 421; Lab 380

Current Council: Lab 37; Con 10; LD 6;Ind 3; 2 vacancies

[greenhert]

Sept 5, 2022 14:04:08 GMT Tony Otim said:

ARGYLL & BUTE UA; Kintyre & the Islands (Ind died)
Candidates:
AGEER, Gopi (Labour)
MacKENZIE, Kenny (Liberal Democrat)
MacQUARRIE, Lachie (SNP)
REDMAN, Alastair John (Independent)
SKINNER, Tom (Green)
STEWART, Hamish (Conservative)

2022: SNP 863; Ind 680 (McAlpine), 474 (Redman); LD 474; Con 276; Lab 122
2017: SNP 821; Con 648 (Redman); LD 626; Ind 411(McAlpine);Lab 160; Grn 134
2012: SNP 610; Ind 584 (McAlpine); Con 553 (Redman); LD 540; Lab 225; Grn 73; Ind 19
2007: LD 1131; Ind 608 (McAlpine), 342, 190; SNP 482; Con 300; Lab 219

Since the introduction of STV, of the 3 seats in this ward 1 has been held continuously by Robin Currie for the Lib Dems, one has always been held by the SNP and the other has usually been won by John McAlpine as an independent. The exception was 2017, when Alastair Redman took the seat for the Conservatives. He narrowly missed out on holding it this May as an independent (at the expense of Currie for the Lib Dems) and has another go in the by-election. Lachie MacQuarrie was the unsuccessful SNP candidate in Cowal in May.

Current Council: SNP 12; Con 10; Ind 6; LD 5; Grn 1; Lab 1; 1 vacancy



HARBOROUGH DC; Logan (LD resigned)
Candidates:
CUTSFORTH, Robin James (Conservative)
LAMBERT, Robin Andrew (Independent)
PANTER, Maria (Labour)
WHITMORE, Geraldine (Liberal Democrat)

2019: LD 774, 635; Con 587; Grn 389; Ind 242; Lab 198

Robin Lambert was the independent who stood in 2019.

Current council: Con 22; LD 10; Lab 1; 1 vacancy



NEWARK & SHERWOOD DC; Edwinstowe & Clipstone (Con died)
Candidates:
BOOTH, Nigel Jeremy (Conservative)
FREEMAN, Andrew (Labour)

2019:Con 989, 969, 949; Lab 983, 946, 931
2015: Lab 2327, 2264, 2123; Con 1682, 1475, 1389; Ind 814, 752, 479

Current Council: Con 29; Lab 6; LD 2; Ind 1; 1vacancy



OXFORD DC; Hinksey Park (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
GLASS WOODIN, Deborah (Independent)
JOYCE, Callum (TUSC)
POWELL, Alex (Green)
RAILTON, Anna (Labour)
SAUNDERS, Jennifer (Conservative)
TANNER, Rick (Liberal Democrat)

2022: Lab 1118; Grn 369; LD 211; Con 109
2021: Lab 1273, 986; Ind 321; Grn 310, 195; LD 244, 137; Con 128, 122

Vacancy for the 2021-2024 term. Deborah Glass Woodin is the independent who came 3rd last year. Rick Tanner has contested the last two elections here for the Lib Dems. The TUSC, Green and Conservative candidates all stood in other wards in May (Barton & Sandhills, Rose Hill & iffley and Churchill respectively)

Current council: Lab 31; LD 9; Grn 6; Ind 1; 1 vacancy



RHONDDA CYNON TAF UA; Ynysybwl (PC died)
Candidates:
BAXTER, Jeffrey Lee (Green)
EVANS, Paula (Plaid Cymru)
FLOWERDEW, Richard John (Labour)
GRIFFITHS, Lloyd (Conservative)
O’DONOVAN, Jessica Joan (Gwlad)

2022: PC 629, 581; Lab 392, 372; Gwlad 112, 92; Con 70

Richard Flowerdew was the top Labour candidate in May and Jessica O’Donovan was the second Gwlad candidate. The Green stood in Treforest in May and the Conservative in Ferndale & Maerdy.

Current Council: Lab 59; PC 7; Ind 6; Con 2; 1 vacancy



ROSSENDALE DC; Facit & Shawforth (Con resigned)
Candidates:
CHIPPENDALE, Caitlin Louise (Labour)
OLAOLU, Kim Valerie (Independent)
SMITH, Scott (Conservative)
VIJATOV, Alex (Green)

2021: Ind 425; Con 310; Lab 255
2019: Con 425; Lab 346
2016: Lab 381; Con 304; UKIP 200
2015: Con 602; Lab 565; UKIP 436; Community First 207
2012: Ind 512; Con 238; LD 115
2011: Lab 526; Con 429; Grn 148
2008: Con 336; LD 298; BNP 218; Ind 185; Lab 121
2007: Lab 431; LD 393; Con 251
2004: Con 660; Lab 533
2003: Con 422; Lab 372
2002: Lab 550, 527; Con 378, 290

Vacancy is for the 2019-2023 term. Scott Smith stood here for the Conservatives in 2021. He is also county councillor for Whitworth and Bacup division (which contains this ward).


ROSSENDALE DC; Helmshore (Con resigned)
Candidates:
BROCKBANK, Katrina (Green)
HODGKISS, Ann (Conservative)
LOOKER, Neil Anthony (Labour)
NELSON, Steve (Liberal Democrat)
STANSFIELD, David (Independent)

2022: Con 892; Lab 701; Grn 219; Ind 101
2021: Con 1081; Lab 673; Ind 333
2019: Con 1115; Lab 687
2018: Con 1188; Lab 911
2016: Con 1003; Lab 700; Ind 236
2015: Con 1894; Lab 1049; UKIP 423; Grn 175
Oct 14by:Con 771; Lab 444; UKIP 364
2014: Con 1109; Lab 675
2012: Con 674; Lab 566; Ind 548
2011: Con 1167; Lab 846
2010: Con 1969; Lab 1212
Jun 09b: Con 1015; LD 490; Lab 389
2008: Con 975; Lab 320; LD 181; Ind 145
2007: Con 859; Lab 434; LD 244
2006: Con 897; Lab 549; LD 275
2004: Con 1084; Lab 633; LD 500
2003: Con 694; Lab 473; LD 244
2002: Con 763, 748, 666; Lab 716, 714, 627; Ind 405

Vacancy is for the 2019-2023 term. The Green candidate is the same as in May. David Stansfield was the Conservative elected in 2016, who stood unsuccessfully as an independent in 2021 and 2022. He was also county councillor for Rossendale West division (which contains this ward) from 2013-2021, elected as a Conservative and came 3rd as an independent trying to defend the seat last year.

Current Council: Lab 19; Con 9; Ind 3; Community First 2; Grn 1; 2 vacancies



WARRINGTON UA; Grappenhall (2 X LD both resigned)
Candidates:
BROWN, Mark Damen (Liberal Democrat)
DOLAN, Moira (Conservative)
FORD, Philip Martin (Conservative)
HARRIS, Denise Jane (Green)
MATTHEWS, Denis James Thomas (Labour)
SPEED, Helen (Liberal Democrat)

2021: LD 1335, 1136; Con 1052, 803; Lab 261, 258; Grn 194
2016: LD 1306, 1119; Con 565, 421; Lab 380

Current Council: Lab 37; Con 10; LD 6;Ind 3; 2 vacancies

For those of you who do not know, Deborah Glass Woodin is the widow of former Green Party Principal Speaker and Oxford councillor Mike Woodin, and she herself was a Green councillor in Oxford from 2000-2002.

[iang]

How come she's standing as am Independent rather than Green then? Is that a recent thing or a longer term one?

[carolus]

Sept 9, 2022 21:06:07 GMT greenhert said:

For those of you who do not know, Deborah Glass Woodin is the widow of former Green Party Principal Speaker and Oxford councillor Mike Woodin, and she herself was a Green councillor in Oxford from 2000-2002.

As well as county councillor for Isis 2005-2009.

[phil156]

They all count on Thursday evening except of course Argyll & Bute which is Friday morning

[jamesdoyle]

From the desk of Andrew Teale:

link.medium.com/iCVVbowBItb

[YL]

In the Campbeltown Courier article Andrew links to in his preview for Kintyre & the Islands, the SNP candidate, apparently trying to reinforce his local credentials, says "I can travel to the area quicker than candidates from Islay." What's he trying to say here, given that Islay is a rather large part of the ward in question?

[Robert Waller]

Sept 29, 2022 13:28:07 GMT jamesdoyle said:

From the desk of Andrew Teale:

link.medium.com/iCVVbowBItb

Well done as ever, Andrew, I must say that these are a particularly fascinating set of elections - certainly from my own point of view.
My parents were both from Rossendale, I spent 12 years in Oxford including doing a thesis on the inter-war Nottinghamshire mining villages focusing on both Edwinstowe and Clipstone, I've recently written something on George Orwell (Jura), and just finished a Vote UK Almanac profile on the valleys (and did indeed think of Leighton Rees but of course couldn't transfer Ynysybwl to the Rhondda!)
Oh, and my mother's maiden name was Warrington.

All that means that I am absolutely certain to crash and burn in this week's prediction competition.

[timmullen1]

Plaid HOLD in Rhondda Cynon Taff

[andrewp]

Rhondda, Ynysbwl

PC 59% (+6.7)
Lab 33.4% (+0.8)
Con 4.6% (-1.2)
Gwlad 1.9% (-7.4)
Green 1.1%

[andrewp]

Edwinstowe and Clipstone, Newark and Sherwood

Lab 804
Con 540

[batman]

Lab 59.82%
C 40.18%

[andrewp]

Harborough, Logan

LD 582
Con 382
Lab 250
Ind 60

[Robert Waller]

Market Harborough — Logan (Harborough) council by-election result:

LDEM: 45.7% (+2.7)
CON: 30.0% (-2.6)
LAB: 19.6% (+8.6)
IND: 4.7% (-8.7)

Votes cast: 1,274

Liberal Democrat HOLD.

[andrewp]

Sept 29, 2022 22:35:10 GMT Robert Waller said:

Market Harborough — Logan (Harborough) council by-election result:

LDEM: 45.7% (+2.7)
CON: 30.0% (-2.6)
LAB: 19.6% (+8.6)
IND: 4.7% (-8.7)

Votes cast: 1,274

Liberal Democrat HOLD.

If the result at the top of this thread is right, I think the Con share is up.

[melthamhd94nn]

That looks like a swing from Con to Lib Dem and Ind to Lab. Probably more complicated than that but Lib Dems need to be wary of increased Lab vote.

[ricmk]

Sept 29, 2022 22:39:58 GMT melthamhd94nn said:

That looks like a swing from Con to Lib Dem and Ind to Lab. Probably more complicated than that but Lib Dems need to be wary of increased Lab vote.

Yep, although I thought that was a banana skin as the previous Cllr moved to Surrey, and only resigned his seat after public pressure to do so.   I've seen big swings against the incumbent at many by-elections with that story.  So maybe the Lab vote is a small backlash?  Something to watch in LD:Con contests, if the Lab vote is up across the board then that's definitely a problem. 

[batman]

Well it is & it isn't. If voters are switching from Con to Lab, as many are, and the LD vote stays solid it can help the LDs in many areas. Just as it did in Portsmouth South in 1997 for example

[andrewp]

Sept 29, 2022 22:45:56 GMT batman said:

Well it is & it isn't. If voters are switching from Con to Lab, as many are, and the LD vote stays solid it can help the LDs in many areas. Just as it did in Portsmouth South in 1997 for example

Even if Labour polled 50%, I doubt there would be ‘that’  many Con- Lab switchers in eg Taunton where I live.  I bet There would be a lot more Con- LD switchers even if Labour did poll 50% nationally. I just don’t think many people would make a Con- Lab switch in Somerset.

[batman]

Depends. In the rural areas, probably not. In Taunton, bit more plausible. In Bridgwater, more plausible still. Once a party has momentum of this kind some counter-intuitive things are bound to happen somewhere.