Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 30, 2022 7:46:44 GMT
Well, I’m surprised that those Rossendale results were quite good for the Tories. There were possibly quite a lot of postals cast before the mini budget? Plus, of course the possibility of local issues... |
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Post by matureleft on Sept 30, 2022 7:49:41 GMT
It looks like another week for, “these are local elections”. From Andrew’s description of the Rossendale wards these are places that put some emphasis on Local (a bit like the League of Gentlemen) and candidate selection would mean a lot. It’s a Labour council and that can be a help, or a hindrance - in this case? That said, it suggests, as I suspect most of us know, that, in spite of polls, we are nowhere near 1995-7 territory.
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Sept 30, 2022 8:01:13 GMT
andrewteale clearly believes that Rossendale is a very peculiar place, from all those references to B**** in the preview. Andrew, what is it about Bacup that means you did this?
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Post by thirdchill on Sept 30, 2022 8:14:29 GMT
It looks like another week for, “these are local elections”. From Andrew’s description of the Rossendale wards these are places that put some emphasis on Local (a bit like the League of Gentlemen) and candidate selection would mean a lot. It’s a Labour council and that can be a help, or a hindrance - in this case? That said, it suggests, as I suspect most of us know, that, in spite of polls, we are nowhere near 1995-7 territory. Probably the change of control to labour is a factor. It's certainly a bit of a turnaround from the last couple of election cycles where the conservatives had underperformed rather badly (due to splits etc). That said, the county councillor for Whitworth & Bacup (which contains this ward) could also have developed a personal vote, and it was the county councillor who stood as the conservative candidate. Doesn't always apply, maybe it did in this case. On the polls, I agree with you. Don't tend to trust polls taken immediately after events, as they tend to exaggerate either the positive or the negative. Seeing what happens over the coming weeks is more important. At the moment, it has the feeling of labour winning with a working but not landslide majority, but that's only for the moment. |
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Post by thirdchill on Sept 30, 2022 8:18:00 GMT
andrewteale clearly believes that Rossendale is a very peculiar place, from all those references to B**** in the preview. Andrew, what is it about Bacup that means you did this? Parts of Rossendale feel quite insular. And that's nothing new, when my partner lived in Stacksteads quite a number of years ago he said it felt very insular then. This won't apply to the whole of the borough but definitely applies to some of it (Bacup definitely). Not helped by relatively poor transport connections. |
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Post by rockefeller on Sept 30, 2022 9:16:24 GMT
it isn't Red Wall though, it has been a Tory seat since 2010 & was never safe Labour (though some think it should have been) There's a different band of seats that were Labour in 1992 and Tory in 2010 - Cannock, Carlisle, Crewe, Dewsbury, Ipswich, Kingswood*, Nuneaton, Pembroke**, Rossendale, Sherwood, Thurrock, Warwickshire N, Weaver Vale(?) etc. *Unsure on this one due to boundary changes **not sure what the successor seat is here |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 30, 2022 9:19:14 GMT
Well, I’m surprised that those Rossendale results were quite good for the Tories. Two things to remember about this week's results - campaigning suspended for getting on to a fortnight, and postal votes. How the Tories might be doing in these contests a month from now, who knows. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 30, 2022 9:20:18 GMT
it isn't Red Wall though, it has been a Tory seat since 2010 & was never safe Labour (though some think it should have been) There's a different band of seats that were Labour in 1992 and Tory in 2010 - Cannock, Carlisle, Dewsbury, Ipswich, Kingswood*, Nuneaton, Pembroke**, Rossendale, Sherwood, Thurrock, Warwickshire N etc. *Unsure on this one due to boundary changes **not sure what the successor seat is here The 1992 version of Kingswood was a very different animal and on those boundaries it would probably be a Labour seat now, conversely Kingswood on current boundaries would have been Tory in 1992 |
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Post by rockefeller on Sept 30, 2022 9:24:21 GMT
There's a different band of seats that were Labour in 1992 and Tory in 2010 - Cannock, Carlisle, Dewsbury, Ipswich, Kingswood*, Nuneaton, Pembroke**, Rossendale, Sherwood, Thurrock, Warwickshire N etc. *Unsure on this one due to boundary changes **not sure what the successor seat is here The 1992 version of Kingswood was a very different animal and on those boundaries it would probably be a Labour seat now, conversely Kingswood on current boundaries would have been Tory in 1992 Cheers. What's the closest successor to Pembroke? |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 30, 2022 9:27:38 GMT
It looks like another week for, “these are local elections”. From Andrew’s description of the Rossendale wards these are places that put some emphasis on Local (a bit like the League of Gentlemen) and candidate selection would mean a lot. It’s a Labour council and that can be a help, or a hindrance - in this case? That said, it suggests, as I suspect most of us know, that, in spite of polls, we are nowhere near 1995-7 territory. Well perhaps, but maybe some are now over-emphasising the "Starmer isn't Blair" aspect - if we also have a Tory PM who is far worse than Major..... |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 30, 2022 9:40:34 GMT
There's a different band of seats that were Labour in 1992 and Tory in 2010 - Cannock, Carlisle, Dewsbury, Ipswich, Kingswood*, Nuneaton, Pembroke**, Rossendale, Sherwood, Thurrock, Warwickshire N etc. *Unsure on this one due to boundary changes **not sure what the successor seat is here The 1992 version of Kingswood was a very different animal and on those boundaries it would probably be a Labour seat now, conversely Kingswood on current boundaries would have been Tory in 1992 It was; we were a Tory target seat in 1992 (to the extent of them having a full time worker in the constituency) IIRC Roger Berry had a 5% swing to gain the seat by 2000-ish, but it was recorded by the BBC as a Labour win in 97 so presumably the boundary changes made it notionally Conservative. By Pembroke I assume you mean Pembrokeshire as there hasn’t been a Pembroke since 1885, if so it was split between the current Preseli Pembrokeshire and Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire. EDIT NOTE: A section of this post has been removed by the moderation team as it appears to have been factually incorrect. We have no reason to believe that the statement was posted in anything other than good faith but do not wish to place the poster or the forum in a difficult position, nor to publish a false statement regarding a forum member. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 30, 2022 10:06:10 GMT
The 1992 version of Kingswood was a very different animal and on those boundaries it would probably be a Labour seat now, conversely Kingswood on current boundaries would have been Tory in 1992 IIRC Roger Berry had a 5% swing to gain the seat by 2000-ish, but it was recorded by the BBC as a Labour win in 97 so presumably the boundary changes made it notionally Conservative .Yes the 1997 boundary changes removed the two St George's wards and added more suburban territory from the former Kingswood district which had been in Wansdyke. The 2010 boundary changes removed the other two Bristol wards and added the remainder of suburban parts the former Kingswood district (Warmley) as well as removing one of the grottier areas of Kingswood itself (Staple Hill). So cumulatively the two sets of boundary changes make it a very different seat |
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Post by robert1 on Sept 30, 2022 12:11:01 GMT
Deleted as requested.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Sept 30, 2022 12:29:34 GMT
Rhondda, Ynysbwl PC 59% (+6.7) Lab 33.4% (+0.8) Con 4.6% (-1.2) Gwlad 1.9% (-7.4) Green 1.1% Have we had a Gwlad result where they had contested the previous election before? |
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r34t
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Post by r34t on Sept 30, 2022 12:34:21 GMT
It looks like another week for, “these are local elections”. From Andrew’s description of the Rossendale wards these are places that put some emphasis on Local (a bit like the League of Gentlemen) and candidate selection would mean a lot. It’s a Labour council and that can be a help, or a hindrance - in this case? That said, it suggests, as I suspect most of us know, that, in spite of polls, we are nowhere near 1995-7 territory. Well perhaps, but maybe some are now over-emphasising the "Starmer isn't Blair" aspect - if we also have a Tory PM who is far worse than Major..... or a chancellor so ... different ... from Ken Clarke ....... |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 30, 2022 12:36:05 GMT
Kintyre & The Islands is an independent win. No figures as yet
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 30, 2022 12:57:00 GMT
Kintyre & The Islands is an independent win. No figures as yet I don't suppose you are very surprised by either of those statements  |
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Post by kevinf on Sept 30, 2022 13:21:24 GMT
Rhondda, Ynysbwl PC 59% (+6.7) Lab 33.4% (+0.8) Con 4.6% (-1.2) Gwlad 1.9% (-7.4) Green 1.1% Have we had a Gwlad result where they had contested the previous election before? — I think we can confidently predict their imminent collapse.. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 30, 2022 13:25:26 GMT
Kintyre & The Islands is an independent win. No figures as yet I don't suppose you are very surprised by either of those statements Not particularly - it seemed likely to me that there would be enough anti-SNP votes to stop them and the independent seemed the only realistic challenger. I did think that predictions which saw the Lib Dems significantly improving on the performance of a very well-established incumbent with decades of service who had hung on through very low points when they were fielding a new candidate from outside the ward as... optimistic, shall we say. Of course, the full figures will probably show I'm talking absolute nonsense here |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 30, 2022 13:34:45 GMT
Redman 591
SNP 525
LD 265
Con 194
Grn 176
Lab 55
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