People Polling

[willpower3]

Oct 21, 2022 7:36:47 GMT nobodyimportant said:

Putting that poll into Electoral calculus (with no tactical voting or anything like that) gives the Tories 0 seats.

Obviously wouldn't actually happen even if these %s were born out at a general election, but I think every poll before has at least left them with a few seats

*If* they polled 14% nationally then it could happen. Scottish Labour went down to one seat with a much higher share of the vote.

[stb12]

Oct 21, 2022 9:02:58 GMT willpower3 said:

Oct 21, 2022 7:36:47 GMT nobodyimportant said:

Putting that poll into Electoral calculus (with no tactical voting or anything like that) gives the Tories 0 seats.

Obviously wouldn't actually happen even if these %s were born out at a general election, but I think every poll before has at least left them with a few seats

*If* they polled 14% nationally then it could happen. Scottish Labour went down to one seat with a much higher share of the vote.

Much smaller number of seats with much less geographic diversity to consider there though

[YL]

The Election Maps UK map based on this poll has the Tories holding Boston & Skegness, South Holland & the Deepings, Maldon, Brentwood & Ongar and Meon Valley.

[The Bishop]

Oct 21, 2022 7:32:26 GMT mrhell said:

Aug 26, 2022 10:45:52 GMT The Bishop said:

Though a few months of Truss, and 26% might seem generous.

(please note everybody, this is not an actual prediction)

Indeed.

It wasn't a prediction, but it was

And yes, 14% is the lowest the Tories have ever scored in some 80 years of UK polling.

[afleitch]

Oct 21, 2022 9:08:46 GMT stb12 said:

Oct 21, 2022 9:02:58 GMT willpower3 said:

*If* they polled 14% nationally then it could happen. Scottish Labour went down to one seat with a much higher share of the vote.

Much smaller number of seats with much less geographic diversity to consider there though

It's worse though.

Labour have a 39 point lead which in itself is 2.8 times the Tory vote share.

The SNPs vote lead in 2015 was 26 points over Labour but that was only 1.1 times it's vote share.

Demographic and geographic diversity doesn't shield a party from that level of collapse when another party is dominant.

It's entirely possible that such as a result could result in a range of seat outcomes that are effectively single figures. Which also includes 0 seats.

[arnieg]

Oct 21, 2022 9:21:18 GMT YL said:

The Election Maps UK map based on this poll has the Tories holding Boston & Skegness, South Holland & the Deepings, Maldon, Brentwood & Ongar and Meon Valley.

Assuming no Reform candidates? I imagine Reform (or similar) would find these seats attractive targets under such circumstances,

[mattbewilson]

Will we see a permanent political shift? Liberals usurp Tories. Portugal style politics

[finsobruce]

Oct 21, 2022 12:19:17 GMT mattbewilson said:

Will we see a permanent political shift? Liberals usurp Tories. Portugal style politics

I think that is vanishingly unlikely, but the Tories do seem to be doing their best to make it happen.

[LDCaerdydd]

Oct 21, 2022 9:41:18 GMT arnieg said:

Oct 21, 2022 9:21:18 GMT YL said:

The Election Maps UK map based on this poll has the Tories holding Boston & Skegness, South Holland & the Deepings, Maldon, Brentwood & Ongar and Meon Valley.

Assuming no Reform candidates? I imagine Reform (or similar) would find these seats attractive targets under such circumstances,

Reform are presumably about to wake up

[andrewp]

Oct 21, 2022 12:19:17 GMT mattbewilson said:

Will we see a permanent political shift? Liberals usurp Tories. Portugal style politics

It seems really unlikely. Whenever any of the progressive alliance lot of Twitter hope for the end of the Conservative party, I always want to remind them that at least 30% of the electorate will be a market for a right of centre  option.

If there was no Conservative party it seems to me either or both of  1) you would end up with a Reform type right wing party, or 2) those right wing voters would mean either the Lib Dems or Labour are influenced by those voters and drift significantly to the right. 

[Merseymike]

Oct 21, 2022 12:35:20 GMT andrewp said:

Oct 21, 2022 12:19:17 GMT mattbewilson said:

Will we see a permanent political shift? Liberals usurp Tories. Portugal style politics

It seems really unlikely. Whenever any of the progressive alliance lot of Twitter hope for the end of the Conservative party, I always want to remind them that at least 30% of the electorate will be a market for a right of centre  option.

If there was no Conservative party it seems to me either or both of  1) you would end up with a Reform type right wing party, or 2) those right wing voters would mean either the Lib Dems or Labour are influenced by those voters and drift significantly to the right. 

This is fantasy. No-one sensible thinks there would not be a Conservative party. There would, indeed, be at least two right of centre parties. The issue is that they would be unlikely to govern alone.

[mattbewilson]

Oct 21, 2022 12:35:20 GMT andrewp said:

Oct 21, 2022 12:19:17 GMT mattbewilson said:

Will we see a permanent political shift? Liberals usurp Tories. Portugal style politics

It seems really unlikely. Whenever any of the progressive alliance lot of Twitter hope for the end of the Conservative party, I always want to remind them that at least 30% of the electorate will be a market for a right of centre  option.

If there was no Conservative party it seems to me either or both of  1) you would end up with a Reform type right wing party, or 2) those right wing voters would mean either the Lib Dems or Labour are influenced by those voters and drift significantly to the right. 

I think the latter seems possible

[jamesdoyle]

There needs to be a right of centre party, but there are different possible options for which (one, two or more) actually exist. The Conservatives used to subsume all of those and hold them together - but now they are incapable of being all of them at once, so there are many reasons for any given voter not to vote Con - too far to the right, too far to the left, not socially conservative enough, not progressive enough. The Cons are going to have to choose which one of the options they are, and it's not going to be a painless process.

[greenhert]

Oct 21, 2022 12:19:17 GMT mattbewilson said:

Will we see a permanent political shift? Liberals usurp Tories. Portugal style politics

Unlikely. A 1931-style drubbing for the Conservatives is likely but it is important to remember that even in 1931, Labour still remained the main opposition party (although a split in the Liberals indirectly helped them slightly). The Conservatives are still likely to end up with Official Opposition status, albeit with a rump of less than 100 seats (Labour only retained 52 in 1931, counting unofficial Labour MPs including those from the ILP).

[mattbewilson]

Oct 21, 2022 18:16:46 GMT greenhert said:

Oct 21, 2022 12:19:17 GMT mattbewilson said:

Will we see a permanent political shift? Liberals usurp Tories. Portugal style politics

Unlikely. A 1931-style drubbing for the Conservatives is likely but it is important to remember that even in 1931, Labour still remained the main opposition party (although a split in the Liberals indirectly helped them slightly). The Conservatives are still likely to end up with Official Opposition status, albeit with a rump of less than 100 seats (Labour only retained 52 in 1931, counting unofficial Labour MPs including those from the ILP).

though there was a 50 strong nationalist block like in Canada when the conservatives collapsed. Irish nationalists block had succeeded and Scottish nationalists didn't exist as political force yet

[aargauer]

Oct 21, 2022 18:16:46 GMT greenhert said:

Oct 21, 2022 12:19:17 GMT mattbewilson said:

Will we see a permanent political shift? Liberals usurp Tories. Portugal style politics

Unlikely. A 1931-style drubbing for the Conservatives is likely but it is important to remember that even in 1931, Labour still remained the main opposition party (although a split in the Liberals indirectly helped them slightly). The Conservatives are still likely to end up with Official Opposition status, albeit with a rump of less than 100 seats (Labour only retained 52 in 1931, counting unofficial Labour MPs including those from the ILP).

I don't really see it being likely that the tories will get under 100 seats. We saw these kind of figures in reverse in 2008, and labour naturally recovered. And before that in 1994/5 with the recovery by the conservatives.

At least if Sunak gets in i would be willing to bet the house on it.

[nodealbrexiteer]

Oct 21, 2022 18:39:36 GMT aargauer said:

Oct 21, 2022 18:16:46 GMT greenhert said:

Unlikely. A 1931-style drubbing for the Conservatives is likely but it is important to remember that even in 1931, Labour still remained the main opposition party (although a split in the Liberals indirectly helped them slightly). The Conservatives are still likely to end up with Official Opposition status, albeit with a rump of less than 100 seats (Labour only retained 52 in 1931, counting unofficial Labour MPs including those from the ILP).

I don't really see it being likely that the tories will get under 100 seats. We saw these kind of figures in reverse in 2008, and labour naturally recovered. And before that in 1994/5 with the recovery by the conservatives.

At least if Sunak gets in i would be willing to bet the house on it.

I appreciate anything could happen in a freak result but it is hard to imagine either main party under 150 seats-but never say never!

[r34t]

In the mid 90s the Tories were a similar number of % points down, that was reflected in council by-election results. That’s not happening atm, so my guess is that it’s the parliamentary leadership is driving the polls, not the ‘brand’. I can see a similar result to 97, but not an extinction level event,

Maybe.

But never discount this current showers ability to really f**k things up. I was talking to the previous local council leader this week, a Tory who lost his seat at the last set of elections. He is despairing of the party atm.

[Adam in Stroud]

Oct 21, 2022 12:35:20 GMT andrewp said:

Oct 21, 2022 12:19:17 GMT mattbewilson said:

Will we see a permanent political shift? Liberals usurp Tories. Portugal style politics

It seems really unlikely. Whenever any of the progressive alliance lot of Twitter hope for the end of the Conservative party, I always want to remind them that at least 30% of the electorate will be a market for a right of centre  option.

If there was no Conservative party it seems to me either or both of  1) you would end up with a Reform type right wing party, or 2) those right wing voters would mean either the Lib Dems or Labour are influenced by those voters and drift significantly to the right. 

I can readily imagine both of those things simultaneously, in which case the drift to the right would probably be less pronounced due to the existence of Big Reform sucking up the nativist right and the LDs and Labour tending to fight over the centre-right.

In that scenario I think any Labour shift right-ward would tend to be somewhat Johnsonian/Blairite, with nods to patriotism, Laura Norder and maybe a hint of protectionism, while I'd expect a LD shift to be more on economics. Again, not impossible for both to occur simultaneously.

(All wild speculation at this point, but quite fun).

[mattbewilson]

Oct 21, 2022 20:31:44 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Oct 21, 2022 12:35:20 GMT andrewp said:

It seems really unlikely. Whenever any of the progressive alliance lot of Twitter hope for the end of the Conservative party, I always want to remind them that at least 30% of the electorate will be a market for a right of centre  option.

If there was no Conservative party it seems to me either or both of  1) you would end up with a Reform type right wing party, or 2) those right wing voters would mean either the Lib Dems or Labour are influenced by those voters and drift significantly to the right. 

I can readily imagine both of those things simultaneously, in which case the drift to the right would probably be less pronounced due to the existence of Big Reform sucking up the nativist right and the LDs and Labour tending to fight over the centre-right.

In that scenario I think any Labour shift right-ward would tend to be somewhat Johnsonian/Blairite, with nods to patriotism, Laura Norder and maybe a hint of protectionism, while I'd expect a LD shift to be more on economics. Again, not impossible for both to occur simultaneously.

(All wild speculation at this point, but quite fun).

I don't see protectionism as a right wing shift and I'd generally be in favour of it