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Post by afleitch on Oct 7, 2022 14:09:09 GMT
Again, interesting to see that the 'wow' polls haven't reverted or indeed have slight increases in Labour's lead.
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Post by Penddu on Oct 7, 2022 15:19:23 GMT
I would love to see the Welsh & Scottish subsamples on this... |
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msc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 910 
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Post by msc on Oct 7, 2022 15:27:47 GMT
I would love to see the Welsh & Scottish subsamples on this... Scotland - SNP 40 Lab 27 Tory 7 Lib Dem 5 Green 3 Reform 1 Other 1 Dont Know/Refuse to say 15 Midlands and Wales - Lab 39 Tory 18 Lib 6 Plaid 2 SNP 1 Reform 3 Green 5 Don't Know/Refuse 25 Probably just me being grumpy but the Midlands and Wales is a stupid subsample which tells you very little. One would assume the Tory vote higher in the Midlands at least, both higher in Wales, and 2% for Plaid over a region they only stand in 40 out of what, 150 seats, tells feck all. The SNP isn't a typo. Big moves for them in Neil Kinnock's Welsh constituency, so I hear. (TM, Rik Mayall) |
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Post by bjornhattan on Oct 7, 2022 16:28:16 GMT
I would love to see the Welsh & Scottish subsamples on this... Scotland - SNP 40 Lab 27 Tory 7 Lib Dem 5 Green 3 Reform 1 Other 1 Dont Know/Refuse to say 15 Midlands and Wales - Lab 39 Tory 18 Lib 6 Plaid 2 SNP 1 Reform 3 Green 5 Don't Know/Refuse 25 Probably just me being grumpy but the Midlands and Wales is a stupid subsample which tells you very little. One would assume the Tory vote higher in the Midlands at least, both higher in Wales, and 2% for Plaid over a region they only stand in 40 out of what, 150 seats, tells feck all. The SNP isn't a typo. Big moves for them in Neil Kinnock's Welsh constituency, so I hear. (TM, Rik Mayall)In fairness, Midlands and Wales presumably includes Corby... |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,451
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Post by iain on Oct 13, 2022 19:56:53 GMT
No full numbers yet, but the scores for the big two (ha)
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2022 20:01:27 GMT
No full numbers yet, but the scores for the big two (ha) In a TV drama that would be enough for the PM to resign and/or call a general election. |
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Post by woollyliberal on Oct 13, 2022 20:55:07 GMT
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Post by batman on Oct 13, 2022 21:05:42 GMT
I had always thought that the Tories' absolute core, would-never-not-vote-Conservative-come-what-may vote was at least in the high 20s, probably the very early 30s percentage-wise. It seems that that is no longer the case, if it was, and that is a very deep worry indeed for the Conservatives. I think they will change leader now as they are just sunk with Truss. Whether they will end up with a better leader remains to be seen.
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Oct 13, 2022 21:44:17 GMT
I had always thought that the Tories' absolute core, would-never-not-vote-Conservative-come-what-may vote was at least in the high 20s, probably the very early 30s percentage-wise. It seems that that is no longer the case, if it was, and that is a very deep worry indeed for the Conservatives. I think they will change leader now as they are just sunk with Truss. Whether they will end up with a better leader remains to be seen. Their actual unwavering core vote is in the single digits (see the Europeans elections in 2019). Of course, general elections when the party isn’t hideously unpopular will probably see them break 30%, but the ever falling levels of partisan attachment mean they can sink well below that in polling and perhaps elections if they try hard enough. My guess is that even under current conditions they would probably get high 20s in a general election as the Con-2019 to Undecided voters will mostly (but not completely!) begrudgingly go back home. Of course, that wouldn’t be much comfort in absolute terms or relative to Labour (where almost all the actual switchers are going in droves). |
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Post by aidypiez on Oct 13, 2022 21:48:25 GMT
That's last week's poll, already posted above |
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Post by andrewp on Oct 13, 2022 22:06:33 GMT
I had always thought that the Tories' absolute core, would-never-not-vote-Conservative-come-what-may vote was at least in the high 20s, probably the very early 30s percentage-wise. It seems that that is no longer the case, if it was, and that is a very deep worry indeed for the Conservatives. I think they will change leader now as they are just sunk with Truss. Whether they will end up with a better leader remains to be seen. I still think that is their core when crosses are put in boxes, rather than answers given to pollsters. |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 13, 2022 22:07:36 GMT
That's last week's poll, already posted above There’s this tucked away behind the Telegraph’s paywall: “Elsewhere, the polling revealed that the Conservative share of the vote has collapsed to 19 per cent. Labour’s lead has widened to 34 points – twice what they need for a majority in their own right, pointing towards a Conservative election wipeout.” (I think it’s a poll for GB News but there are only so many Tweets with Nigel Farage gurning at me that’s healthy). |
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Post by london(ex)tory on Oct 21, 2022 6:49:08 GMT
Jesus, Mary and the wee donkey!
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Post by willpower3 on Oct 21, 2022 6:58:27 GMT
Jesus, Mary and the wee donkey! 14% is a stunning performance in the circumstances and speaks volumes about the survivalist capacities of the Conservative Party. |
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Post by mrhell on Oct 21, 2022 7:32:26 GMT
Though a few months of Truss, and 26% might seem generous. (please note everybody, this is not an actual prediction) Indeed. |
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Post by nobodyimportant on Oct 21, 2022 7:36:47 GMT
Putting that poll into Electoral calculus (with no tactical voting or anything like that) gives the Tories 0 seats.
Obviously wouldn't actually happen even if these %s were born out at a general election, but I think every poll before has at least left them with a few seats
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Post by aidypiez on Oct 21, 2022 7:49:24 GMT
Second place here we come 😜
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Post by afleitch on Oct 21, 2022 8:12:01 GMT
Jesus, Mary and the wee donkey! Never thought I'd see the Tories as low as 14%. I think that's the lowest share ever in a published poll. Which wasn't in the 1992-1997 period. People forget the 'wacky races' period after the 2019 Euros, where their lowest share was only a few points higher than Labours, but those were somewhat exceptional circumstances. |
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Post by nobodyimportant on Oct 21, 2022 8:17:35 GMT
Lowest Tory poll in 92-97 was 18.5%
Lowest Tory poll in 2019 was 17%
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Post by islington on Oct 21, 2022 8:24:37 GMT
Never thought I'd see the Tories as low as 14%. I think that's the lowest share ever in a published poll. Which wasn't in the 1992-1997 period. People forget the 'wacky races' period after the 2019 Euros, where their lowest share was only a few points higher than Labours, but those were somewhat exceptional circumstances. I sincerely hope the current circumstances are also exceptional, I can't bear much more of this. |
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