The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 30, 2022 15:00:41 GMT
Just for the record, this is the first poll to put the Tories below 20% since Sunak became PM.
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Post by carolus on Dec 30, 2022 15:29:00 GMT
I suppose one advantage of polling on 28 December is that your chances of getting a weird result to attract some headlines are enhanced. Given who's behind this company, I suspect chance had very little to do with it.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 31, 2022 10:57:22 GMT
Well unlike the US we do have some polling standards, and People Polling is a member of the BPC. So there are hopefully limits to what you know who can get up to.
(though I do note there have been a few quite blatant push poll questions with this lot!)
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Post by batman on Dec 31, 2022 12:07:59 GMT
If you mean Reform, I guess their particularly strong anti-Conservative attitude at the moment is born of a desire to replace the Conservative Party as the principal party of the right in the country. If so it's a pipe dream. The Conservative Party will absolutely remain in that position and not break asunder like for example the Italian Christian Democrats.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 31, 2022 12:18:13 GMT
If you mean Reform, I guess their particularly strong anti-Conservative attitude at the moment is born of a desire to replace the Conservative Party as the principal party of the right in the country. If so it's a pipe dream. The Conservative Party will absolutely remain in that position and not break asunder like for example the Italian Christian Democrats. I wonder? A party can survive short to medium term external dislike and revulsion by the electorate, until the party in power runs out of steam or loses popularity; but it may not survive internal disgust and revulsion by its own core members as well. The post-Brexit period has tried the patience of core conservatives well past many trigger points, and the post-Covid period has been well beyond dire. Many of us feel the same about the Conservative Party today as we felt about the C of E a few decades ago. Why should the result not be the same? Disapproval leading to distrust, leading to digust, leading to revulsion, and then to mass rejection?
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Dec 31, 2022 13:35:48 GMT
2 thoughtful posts above. My own feeling is I can't see the Conservatives fading away like the Liberals did as they seem remarkably resilient, ok there might be a period out of office with poor seats tallies a la 1997-2010 but long term i feel a lot of folk see them as 'nurse'. This last line of carlton43's post seems 'very Labour' 'Disapproval leading to distrust, leading to digust, leading to revulsion, and then to mass rejection?' and I do think Labour need to pull themselves together on cultural issues and obsessing over them
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nodealbrexiteer
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non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Dec 31, 2022 13:38:11 GMT
Just for the record, this is the first poll to put the Tories below 20% since Sunak became PM. Combined Con/Lab share of 64%,66.7% in 2010 being the post war low
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Post by aargauer on Dec 31, 2022 13:44:17 GMT
Just for the record, this is the first poll to put the Tories below 20% since Sunak became PM. Combined Con/Lab share of 64%,66.7% in 2010 being the post war low Its quite clearly a ridiculous poll in a number of ways, not just the Con % which is too low even for today. Green plus reform at 17% is just stupid. 7% would be pushing it. Personally I am ignoring the results from this pollster.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 31, 2022 16:04:10 GMT
People Polling stands out because of the Conservative share but in other respects it is not so far out of line with others - in particular YouGov is also showing Reform UK on the edge of double figures.
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Post by london(ex)tory on Dec 31, 2022 21:37:52 GMT
If you mean Reform, I guess their particularly strong anti-Conservative attitude at the moment is born of a desire to replace the Conservative Party as the principal party of the right in the country. If so it's a pipe dream. The Conservative Party will absolutely remain in that position and not break asunder like for example the Italian Christian Democrats. I wonder? A party can survive short to medium term external dislike and revulsion by the electorate, until the party in power runs out of steam or loses popularity; but it may not survive internal disgust and revulsion by its own core members as well. The post-Brexit period has tried the patience of core conservatives well past many trigger points, and the post-Covid period has been well beyond dire. Many of us feel the same about the Conservative Party today as we felt about the C of E a few decades ago. Why should the result not be the same? Disapproval leading to distrust, leading to digust, leading to revulsion, and then to mass rejection? Three years ago I would never have imagined it was possible for me to feel the way about the Conservative Party as I do now. All through the UKIP years I remained a loyal and tribal Tory. Not now though, and unless something pretty radical changes in the next couple of years I know I’m not alone.
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Post by woollyliberal on Dec 31, 2022 21:57:21 GMT
I wonder? A party can survive short to medium term external dislike and revulsion by the electorate, until the party in power runs out of steam or loses popularity; but it may not survive internal disgust and revulsion by its own core members as well. The post-Brexit period has tried the patience of core conservatives well past many trigger points, and the post-Covid period has been well beyond dire. Many of us feel the same about the Conservative Party today as we felt about the C of E a few decades ago. Why should the result not be the same? Disapproval leading to distrust, leading to digust, leading to revulsion, and then to mass rejection? Three years ago I would never have imagined it was possible for me to feel the way about the Conservative Party as I do now. All through the UKIP years I remained a loyal and tribal Tory. Not now though, and unless something pretty radical changes in the next couple of years I know I’m not alone. What is it that got you? The Tories have turned full UKIP. The moderates have gone. Left or driven out. Brexit has been delivered, and a fairly hard one too. They've done what UKIP was all about. What is it that they've become that you can't stand?
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Post by london(ex)tory on Dec 31, 2022 22:12:13 GMT
Three years ago I would never have imagined it was possible for me to feel the way about the Conservative Party as I do now. All through the UKIP years I remained a loyal and tribal Tory. Not now though, and unless something pretty radical changes in the next couple of years I know I’m not alone. What is it that got you? The Tories have turned full UKIP. The moderates have gone. Left or driven out. Brexit has been delivered, and a fairly hard one too. They've done what UKIP was all about. What is it that they've become that you can't stand? Nothing to do with Brexit - otherwise I would have been tempted by UKIP before. It’s the self-destructive triple combo of lockdown, high tax and net zero that makes this government easily the most left wing of my lifetime, and in doing so is making people (including me and my family) poorer and colder as a deliberate policy choice.
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Post by woollyliberal on Dec 31, 2022 22:24:13 GMT
What is it that got you? The Tories have turned full UKIP. The moderates have gone. Left or driven out. Brexit has been delivered, and a fairly hard one too. They've done what UKIP was all about. What is it that they've become that you can't stand? Nothing to do with Brexit - otherwise I would have been tempted by UKIP before. It’s the self-destructive triple combo of lockdown, high tax and net zero that makes this government easily the most left wing of my lifetime, and in doing so is making people (including me and my family) poorer and colder as a deliberate policy choice. If you swap lockdown for furlough, I'd agree with you. Add in to that vast quantities of money thrown away on dodgy PPE. Boris made a choice to spend his way out of a crisis. We'll have high taxes for years to pay back the borrowed money. Net Zero though? That's not particularly expensive, though I can see it being uncomfortable with people who don't like change. What about inflation? Partly driven by tariffs because reverting from a full free trade deal to a much smaller one plus WTO terms. They've driven up the cost of imports and driven down our foreign trade. The loss of trade has caused the pound to shrink, further pushing up prices. Part of the Tory high tax story is because we've traded prices for soverignty. Furlough and loss of free trade are the biggest drivers of inflation and high taxes. (The Russian war has added to that on fuel, wheat and sunflower oil). What about their general ineptness? They're not just incompetent, they're clueless. Is that part of it too?
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jan 1, 2023 0:34:41 GMT
What about inflation? Partly driven by tariffs because reverting from a full free trade deal to a much smaller one plus WTO terms. They've driven up the cost of imports and driven down our foreign trade. The loss of trade has caused the pound to shrink, further pushing up prices. Part of the Tory high tax story is because we've traded prices for soverignty. Furlough and loss of free trade are the biggest drivers of inflation and high taxes. (The Russian war has added to that on fuel, wheat and sunflower oil). What about their general ineptness? They're not just incompetent, they're clueless. Is that part of it too? That part is particularly frustrating. Time was Conservative politicians would have the business nouse to use the freedom of WTO trading to *remove* tarrifs, and the political nouse to bribe the electorate with cheap goods, this lot have imposed tarrifs and made goods more expensive. Inept, incompetent, clueless.
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Post by aargauer on Jan 1, 2023 7:28:38 GMT
Three years ago I would never have imagined it was possible for me to feel the way about the Conservative Party as I do now. All through the UKIP years I remained a loyal and tribal Tory. Not now though, and unless something pretty radical changes in the next couple of years I know I’m not alone. What is it that got you? The Tories have turned full UKIP. The moderates have gone. Left or driven out. Brexit has been delivered, and a fairly hard one too. They've done what UKIP was all about. What is it that they've become that you can't stand? Theres no vision, no plan for growth. Taxes have been raised and bands frozen at a time of 10% inflation. The nation was hugely indebted by arm flapping and panicking in 2020/2021, and unnecessary draconian limits set on basic freedoms by an allegedly conservative government. Im not an immigration hawk (although perhaps more so on asylum), but the situation at the border is an embarrassment, and attempts to fix it have been cheap publicity stunts. There's been zero real reform of an unworkable healthcare model and there's no new grammar schools. That amounts to a significant failure in my eyes, why would we vote Tory? Even more unsettling in my view is high levels of public support for many of the stupider things the tories have done, (the extent of) lockdowns, windfall taxes, the latest being this logic-free restriction on Chinese citizens. Ive never felt so depressed by democracy as a model.
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Post by woollyliberal on Jan 1, 2023 9:20:22 GMT
What about inflation? Partly driven by tariffs because reverting from a full free trade deal to a much smaller one plus WTO terms. They've driven up the cost of imports and driven down our foreign trade. The loss of trade has caused the pound to shrink, further pushing up prices. Part of the Tory high tax story is because we've traded prices for soverignty. Furlough and loss of free trade are the biggest drivers of inflation and high taxes. (The Russian war has added to that on fuel, wheat and sunflower oil). What about their general ineptness? They're not just incompetent, they're clueless. Is that part of it too? That part is particularly frustrating. Time was Conservative politicians would have the business nouse to use the freedom of WTO trading to *remove* tarrifs, and the political nouse to bribe the electorate with cheap goods, this lot have imposed tarrifs and made goods more expensive. Inept, incompetent, clueless. I could see that a party of free trade would want to reduce tariffs, not put them up. Even eliminate some of them. Not all mind. If we got rid of tariffs on steel, the remainder of our steel industry would be destroyed by "dumping". Tariffs are sometimes necessary. Free trade deals are preferable. WTO rules on tariffs are strict. It's odd that a self styled party of business would choose WTO tariffs over free trade.
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Post by woollyliberal on Jan 6, 2023 8:44:03 GMT
Probably the definition of mixed emotions for GB News. The polls they commission show Reform UK doing better than with other pollsters (at the expense of the Tories), but show Rejoin doing consistently better than Stay Out.
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Post by batman on Jan 6, 2023 11:34:23 GMT
It's fairly clear that the Tory figure was too low in the previous poll. This is therefore a reversion to something closer to a real position although the other 2 polls out today have the Tory vote a little higher than this. The Labour share is identical in all 3 polls at 46%.
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Post by woollyliberal on Jan 6, 2023 11:38:07 GMT
It's fairly clear that the Tory figure was too low in the previous poll. This is therefore a reversion to something closer to a real position although the other 2 polls out today have the Tory vote a little higher than this. The Labour share is identical in all 3 polls at 46%. People Polling seem to have a house effect where they poll the Tories lower than other pollsters and Reform higher. When they do a poll that is at the low end of *their* margin of error, it looks like an outlier. I wonder if other pollsters do some reallocating of Tory Don't Knows back to the Tories, where People Polling just show the data in the raw.
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Post by batman on Jan 13, 2023 12:06:04 GMT
Latest poll, sampled January 11 :
Lab 48 ( + 2 from Jan 4) C 21 ( -1 ) LD 8 ( +1 ) Green 7 (unchanged) RefUK 7 ( -1 ) SNP 5 (unchanged) Others 4
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