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Post by batman on Sept 16, 2022 8:25:37 GMT
The Rumworth result is very eye-catching. It's the latest in a long line of poor Labour municipal results in Bolton, but I strongly suspect it's not for the same reasons as some of the others. It seems very likely that for whatever reason the local mosque(s) expressed some level of support for the Conservative candidate and that their views prevailed. Without being a member of a local mosque it would be pretty hard to speculate what those reasons might be. It may simply be that the Conservative candidate is a well-known figure in Muslim community circles and that the Labour candidate isn't. The Tories have had surprising local successes in Muslim-influenced wards in Bolton before, even in the New Labour days, when they have stood candidates prominent in the local Muslim community. Does it have wider significance? It's hard to tell. Is there any evidence that, partly related to Labour's increasingly strong links with mainstream Jewish organisations, Labour is now being seen as Islamophobic? It certainly is a very worrying result for Labour, but for all we know it could be a purely Bolton phenomenon. We just don't know at this stage.
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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 16, 2022 9:17:34 GMT
In case anyone likes the results percentaged
From Britain Elects
Last night's Rumworth (Bolton) council by-election result:
CON: 55.0% (+44.1)
LAB: 37.6% (-35.2)
GRN: 5.3% (-2.6)
LDEM: 1.2% (-0.8)
REF: 0.8% (+0.8)
No UKIP (-6.3) as prev.
Chgs. w/ 2019
Last night's Bolney (Mid Sussex) council by-election result:
CON: 50.6% (+1.2)
LDEM: 27.4% (+8.3)
LAB: 11.1% (+4.6)
MRLP: 5.0% (+5.0)
GRN: 4.7% (-8.8)
IND: 1.2% (+1.2)
Votes cast: 595
Conservative HOLD.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 16, 2022 9:17:36 GMT
Regarding the Rumworth result - ISTR that a sitting Labour councillor in the ward defected to the Tories earlier this year.
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 16, 2022 9:24:51 GMT
Very low turnouts, no campaigns and obvious local trending going on too.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 16, 2022 9:28:49 GMT
A strange week with low turnouts, but obviously that is the Conservatives best week for quite a while. The stop on campaigning clearly made it harder for the LibDems to do their usual thing in Sussex. That the Labour share went up is surely a tell there. |
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timmullen1
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Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 16, 2022 9:35:08 GMT
If anyone’s interested, the City of London results were:
ALDERMANIC
Bishopsgate
Henry Paul KNAPMAN (Ind) 108
Kawsar ZAMAN (Ind) 118
Turnout 28%
Cripplegate
Jeremy Paul MAYHEW (Ind) 141
Susan Jane PEARSON (Ind) 584
Turnout 38%
COURT OF COMMON COUNCIL
Cordwainer
Karina DOSTALOVA (Ind) 15
Amy Alice HORSCROFT (Ind) 54
Angelika WAGNER (Ind) 5
Turnout 26%
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 16, 2022 9:37:35 GMT
The Rumworth result is very eye-catching. It's the latest in a long line of poor Labour municipal results in Bolton, but I strongly suspect it's not for the same reasons as some of the others. It seems very likely that for whatever reason the local mosque(s) expressed some level of support for the Conservative candidate and that their views prevailed. Without being a member of a local mosque it would be pretty hard to speculate what those reasons might be. It may simply be that the Conservative candidate is a well-known figure in Muslim community circles and that the Labour candidate isn't. The Tories have had surprising local successes in Muslim-influenced wards in Bolton before, even in the New Labour days, when they have stood candidates prominent in the local Muslim community. Does it have wider significance? It's hard to tell. Is there any evidence that, partly related to Labour's increasingly strong links with mainstream Jewish organisations, Labour is now being seen as Islamophobic? It certainly is a very worrying result for Labour, but for all we know it could be a purely Bolton phenomenon. We just don't know at this stage. So they voted for an even more Islamophobic party in protest? Whatever the reasons, I somewhat doubt that is a prominent one. |
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mattb
Lib Dem
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Member is Online
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Post by mattb on Sept 16, 2022 9:55:22 GMT
The Rumworth result is very eye-catching. It's the latest in a long line of poor Labour municipal results in Bolton, but I strongly suspect it's not for the same reasons as some of the others. It seems very likely that for whatever reason the local mosque(s) expressed some level of support for the Conservative candidate and that their views prevailed. Without being a member of a local mosque it would be pretty hard to speculate what those reasons might be. It may simply be that the Conservative candidate is a well-known figure in Muslim community circles and that the Labour candidate isn't. The Tories have had surprising local successes in Muslim-influenced wards in Bolton before, even in the New Labour days, when they have stood candidates prominent in the local Muslim community. Does it have wider significance? It's hard to tell. Is there any evidence that, partly related to Labour's increasingly strong links with mainstream Jewish organisations, Labour is now being seen as Islamophobic? It certainly is a very worrying result for Labour, but for all we know it could be a purely Bolton phenomenon. We just don't know at this stage. Surely most Patels are Hindu? (I have no idea in either case here) |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 16, 2022 9:58:06 GMT
So it’s between Ayyub Patel and Kristy Adams as the first Tory winners of the Truss era. I doubt we can be sure of which unless anyone is pedantic enough to check declaration times with the respective councils. Which almost invites it…. Thought that I had seen that name in a Tory context before - and yes, she was their previous (and totally disastrous) candidate for Hove in 2017. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 16, 2022 9:58:10 GMT
The Rumworth result is very eye-catching. It's the latest in a long line of poor Labour municipal results in Bolton, but I strongly suspect it's not for the same reasons as some of the others. It seems very likely that for whatever reason the local mosque(s) expressed some level of support for the Conservative candidate and that their views prevailed. Without being a member of a local mosque it would be pretty hard to speculate what those reasons might be. It may simply be that the Conservative candidate is a well-known figure in Muslim community circles and that the Labour candidate isn't. The Tories have had surprising local successes in Muslim-influenced wards in Bolton before, even in the New Labour days, when they have stood candidates prominent in the local Muslim community. Does it have wider significance? It's hard to tell. Is there any evidence that, partly related to Labour's increasingly strong links with mainstream Jewish organisations, Labour is now being seen as Islamophobic? It certainly is a very worrying result for Labour, but for all we know it could be a purely Bolton phenomenon. We just don't know at this stage. Purely Bolton or purely Rumworth. These kind of results are familiar enough as you say and are entirely to do with local Asian politics with little relevance to the wider borough let alone the country. I remember in 1995 of all years the Conservatives gained (I think) Toller ward in Bradford on a similar swing to the one recorded here. I don't think I'd be particularly worried about this if I was a Labour supporter, less so than some of the apparent movement occuring with Hindu voters in Leicester and elsewhere which may be more systemic. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 16, 2022 10:00:01 GMT
The Rumworth result is very eye-catching. It's the latest in a long line of poor Labour municipal results in Bolton, but I strongly suspect it's not for the same reasons as some of the others. It seems very likely that for whatever reason the local mosque(s) expressed some level of support for the Conservative candidate and that their views prevailed. Without being a member of a local mosque it would be pretty hard to speculate what those reasons might be. It may simply be that the Conservative candidate is a well-known figure in Muslim community circles and that the Labour candidate isn't. The Tories have had surprising local successes in Muslim-influenced wards in Bolton before, even in the New Labour days, when they have stood candidates prominent in the local Muslim community. Does it have wider significance? It's hard to tell. Is there any evidence that, partly related to Labour's increasingly strong links with mainstream Jewish organisations, Labour is now being seen as Islamophobic? It certainly is a very worrying result for Labour, but for all we know it could be a purely Bolton phenomenon. We just don't know at this stage. Purely Bolton or purely Rumworth. These kind of results are familiar enough as you say and are entirely to do with local Asian politics with little relevance to the wider borough let alone the country. I remember in 1995 of all years the Conservatives gained (I think) Toller ward in Bradford on a similar swing to the one recorded here. I don't think I'd be particularly worried about this if I was a Labour supporter, less so than some of the apparent movement occuring with Hindu voters in Leicester and elsewhere which may be more systemic. Yes, that came to mind for me too (IIRC they were a handful of votes from taking another normally safe Labour seat as well) |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 16, 2022 10:03:12 GMT
The Rumworth result is very eye-catching. It's the latest in a long line of poor Labour municipal results in Bolton, but I strongly suspect it's not for the same reasons as some of the others. It seems very likely that for whatever reason the local mosque(s) expressed some level of support for the Conservative candidate and that their views prevailed. Without being a member of a local mosque it would be pretty hard to speculate what those reasons might be. It may simply be that the Conservative candidate is a well-known figure in Muslim community circles and that the Labour candidate isn't. The Tories have had surprising local successes in Muslim-influenced wards in Bolton before, even in the New Labour days, when they have stood candidates prominent in the local Muslim community. Does it have wider significance? It's hard to tell. Is there any evidence that, partly related to Labour's increasingly strong links with mainstream Jewish organisations, Labour is now being seen as Islamophobic? It certainly is a very worrying result for Labour, but for all we know it could be a purely Bolton phenomenon. We just don't know at this stage. Surely most Patels are Hindu? (I have no idea in either case here) Not necessarily. There aren't very many Hindus in this ward but there is a substantial Indian population - as in Blackburn a large Indian origin muslim population. Obviously originally Indian muslims were converts from Hinduism so have retained the name Patel |
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 16, 2022 10:08:04 GMT
The Rumworth result is very eye-catching. It's the latest in a long line of poor Labour municipal results in Bolton, but I strongly suspect it's not for the same reasons as some of the others. It seems very likely that for whatever reason the local mosque(s) expressed some level of support for the Conservative candidate and that their views prevailed. Without being a member of a local mosque it would be pretty hard to speculate what those reasons might be. It may simply be that the Conservative candidate is a well-known figure in Muslim community circles and that the Labour candidate isn't. The Tories have had surprising local successes in Muslim-influenced wards in Bolton before, even in the New Labour days, when they have stood candidates prominent in the local Muslim community. Does it have wider significance? It's hard to tell. Is there any evidence that, partly related to Labour's increasingly strong links with mainstream Jewish organisations, Labour is now being seen as Islamophobic? It certainly is a very worrying result for Labour, but for all we know it could be a purely Bolton phenomenon. We just don't know at this stage. Surely most Patels are Hindu? (I have no idea in either case here) Most are. But it's a Gujerati name and Muslims in Gujerat can also be Patel's. I believe Rumworth is a Gujerati area so could well be Gujerati Muslim by heritage. |
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Post by John Chanin on Sept 16, 2022 10:35:07 GMT
The Patels were a giveaway that they were Indian muslims, most of whom in Britain are Gujerati. Entirely different from the Pakistani/Kashmiri Punjabi communities in Birmingham and Bradford. But equally impenetrable to outsiders in their politics.
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 16, 2022 12:07:26 GMT
Patel means village headman. It only became a surname with English acculturation or even emigration.
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Post by batman on Sept 16, 2022 12:20:53 GMT
both Patels in that by-election are Muslims. You can usually tell from first names. It's not that uncommon to find Mohammed Patels.
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Post by oldhamexile on Sept 16, 2022 14:26:42 GMT
The Rumworth result is very eye-catching. It's the latest in a long line of poor Labour municipal results in Bolton, but I strongly suspect it's not for the same reasons as some of the others. It seems very likely that for whatever reason the local mosque(s) expressed some level of support for the Conservative candidate and that their views prevailed. Without being a member of a local mosque it would be pretty hard to speculate what those reasons might be. It may simply be that the Conservative candidate is a well-known figure in Muslim community circles and that the Labour candidate isn't. The Tories have had surprising local successes in Muslim-influenced wards in Bolton before, even in the New Labour days, when they have stood candidates prominent in the local Muslim community. Does it have wider significance? It's hard to tell. Is there any evidence that, partly related to Labour's increasingly strong links with mainstream Jewish organisations, Labour is now being seen as Islamophobic? It certainly is a very worrying result for Labour, but for all we know it could be a purely Bolton phenomenon. We just don't know at this stage. Purely Bolton or purely Rumworth. These kind of results are familiar enough as you say and are entirely to do with local Asian politics with little relevance to the wider borough let alone the country. I remember in 1995 of all years the Conservatives gained (I think) Toller ward in Bradford on a similar swing to the one recorded here. I don't think I'd be particularly worried about this if I was a Labour supporter, less so than some of the apparent movement occuring with Hindu voters in Leicester and elsewhere which may be more systemic. And of course there was Tiger Patel's famous Tory gain in Audley ward, Blackburn in 2021. In Oldham we even had some Asian candidates and activists who had been associated with militant leftists in anti-Labour splits following Blair's war, but who ended up as Tories. It rarely translates into parliamentary elections, unless one of the major parties is prepared to strike cynical deals with local powerbrokers. Even then you are talking about one-off situations. I don't think Starmer will be at all worried about this, though some of the Corbynite left online will fantasise that his grovelling to the Zionist lobby will cost him seats. |
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Post by evergreenadam on Sept 16, 2022 17:26:09 GMT
The Rumworth result is very eye-catching. It's the latest in a long line of poor Labour municipal results in Bolton, but I strongly suspect it's not for the same reasons as some of the others. It seems very likely that for whatever reason the local mosque(s) expressed some level of support for the Conservative candidate and that their views prevailed. Without being a member of a local mosque it would be pretty hard to speculate what those reasons might be. It may simply be that the Conservative candidate is a well-known figure in Muslim community circles and that the Labour candidate isn't. The Tories have had surprising local successes in Muslim-influenced wards in Bolton before, even in the New Labour days, when they have stood candidates prominent in the local Muslim community. Does it have wider significance? It's hard to tell. Is there any evidence that, partly related to Labour's increasingly strong links with mainstream Jewish organisations, Labour is now being seen as Islamophobic? It certainly is a very worrying result for Labour, but for all we know it could be a purely Bolton phenomenon. We just don't know at this stage. Purely Bolton or purely Rumworth. These kind of results are familiar enough as you say and are entirely to do with local Asian politics with little relevance to the wider borough let alone the country. I remember in 1995 of all years the Conservatives gained (I think) Toller ward in Bradford on a similar swing to the one recorded here. I don't think I'd be particularly worried about this if I was a Labour supporter, less so than some of the apparent movement occuring with Hindu voters in Leicester and elsewhere which may be more systemic. What’s the trend in Leicester? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 16, 2022 17:36:20 GMT
Purely Bolton or purely Rumworth. These kind of results are familiar enough as you say and are entirely to do with local Asian politics with little relevance to the wider borough let alone the country. I remember in 1995 of all years the Conservatives gained (I think) Toller ward in Bradford on a similar swing to the one recorded here. I don't think I'd be particularly worried about this if I was a Labour supporter, less so than some of the apparent movement occuring with Hindu voters in Leicester and elsewhere which may be more systemic. What’s the trend in Leicester? There have been one or two defections of Labour councillors from the Hindu commuminity, one or two by-election reverses. Obviously there was a big swing in Leicester East in 2019 though that was largely due to poor candidate choice by Labour. It's tentative and reversible but along with the more sustained swing of Gujerati Hindus in Harrow, does suggest a wider trend than is indicated by the kind of result in Bolton last night which as has been noted has been replicated many times in wards with that demographic profile. Even so, the trends in Harrow haven't spread to any great extent even to neigbouring boroughs like Brent and Ealing so it is as I say tentative and stems partly from the alliance of the Labour left with political Islam which may be less of a factor now Corbyn has been replaced. |
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Post by batman on Sept 17, 2022 8:38:20 GMT
well yes although the result in Queensbury ward in Brent was similar. Having said that Labour still won Northwick Park ward very easily, which in days gone by would not have happened.
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