Local Council by-elections 11th August 2022

[Tony Otim]

Got a few of these to catch up on, which I'm hoping to do in next few days. Here's the first one:

BRIDGEND UA; Bridgend Central (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
CURRAN, Edward Benjamin (Liberal Democrat)
DWYER, Thomas Joseph (Conservative)
EASTERBROOK, Steven (Independent)
EVANS, Ceri Elizabeth (Labour)
JOHN, Paul Hopkin (Green)

2022: Ind 1159, 1072, 1048; Lab 1112; 1043, 980; Con 324, 310, 297

Steven Easterbrook (Ind) was the unsuccessful indy in May with 1048 votes, Ceri Evans was the second placed Labour candidate (1043 votes) and Thomas Dwyer was the top Conservative.

Bridgend Central was formed from the previous electoral wards of Morfa and Newcastle. In 2017 Morfa elected 2 Labour councillors (including the Labour councillor elected for Central this year, who has now resigned) and Newcastle elected 1 Labour and 1 Conservative. The 2 independents elected this year, both stood unsuccessfully in 2017, 1 in Morfa and and 1 in Newcastle.

Current Council: Lab 26; Bridgend County Ind 12; Democratic Alliance 8 (3 Ind; 3 LLynfi Independents, 2 PC); Ind 3; Con 1; 1 vacancy



SPELTHORNE DC; Laleham & Shepperton Green (Ind Spelthorne Grp elected as Con died)
Candidates:
COUCHMAN, Paul Dennis (TUSC)
HOWKINS, Karen Leigh (Conservative)
THESIGER, John Still (Liberal Democrat)

May 22by: Grn 903; Con 775; TUSC 69
2019: Con 911, 764, 731; Grn 555; LD 417, 399; UKIP 374; Lab 361
2015: Con 1922, 1586, 1529; UKIP 1321; SIP 966, 959; Lab 675, 581, 249; LD 640; TUSC 100, 95, 68
2011: Con 1123, 1021, 798; LD 934, 856, 668; UKIP 590
Oct 09 by: Con 814; LD 742; UKIP 154; Ind 142; Lab 77
2007: Con 1083, 1077, 1057; LD 465, 451, 402; Lab 307
2003: Con 1009, 978, 949; LD 398, 344, 299; Lab 361

So clear signs of an agreement between the Greens and Lib Dems here, I would suggest. The TUSC and Conservative candidates are the same from May’s by-election, whilst John Thesiger was the top Lib Dem candidate in 2019.

Current Council: Con 14; LD 7; United Spelthorne 4; Grn 3; Lab 3; Breakthrough 2; Ind Spelthorne Grp 2; Ind (affiliated to Con Grp) 1; Ind (affiliated to Grn Grp) 1; Ind (affiliated to LD Grp) 1;



WYCHAVON DC; Dodderhill (Con vacancy)
Candidates:
DELLER, Rick (Conservative)
HOWARTH, Susan Gail (Green)
LITTLECHILD, John David (Liberal Democrat)

2019: Con unopp
2015: Con 902; LD 445
2011: Con 542; LD 203
2007: Con 527; LD 242
2003: Con 393; LD 176

Sue Howarth contested Ombersley division (Worcs CC, which contains this ward) last May for the Greens.

Current Council: Con 34; LD 6; Grn 3; Ind 1; 1 vacancy

[batman]

in Spelthorne there is an agreement between the Greens, Lib Dems and Labour. The Greens were given a free run in this ward in the May by-election, with Labour & the LDs not standing, and Labour were given a free run earlier this year in a by-election in Stanwell North & Stanwell Moor with no LDs or Greens standing. In both cases the non-Tory candidate who wasn't TUSC (it's that candidate's 3rd by-election this year) was elected.

[shadsy]

Bridgend Central odds:
smarkets.com/event/42850855/politics/uk/by-elections/2022/08/11/21-00/bridgend-central-by-election

[phil156]

Wychavon counts on Friday the other two are Thursday

[The Bishop]

Aug 8, 2022 16:36:32 GMT shadsy said:

Bridgend Central odds:
smarkets.com/event/42850855/politics/uk/by-elections/2022/08/11/21-00/bridgend-central-by-election

Yes, will be a major surprise if the Independents don't win - especially given the cause of the vacancy. A book on the Spelthorne contest might have been better.

[michaelarden]

Aug 9, 2022 11:40:45 GMT The Bishop said:

Aug 8, 2022 16:36:32 GMT shadsy said:

Bridgend Central odds:
smarkets.com/event/42850855/politics/uk/by-elections/2022/08/11/21-00/bridgend-central-by-election

Yes, will be a major surprise if the Independents don't win - especially given the cause of the vacancy. A book on the Spelthorne contest might have been better.

Not convinced Spelthorne is any more interesting either.

[batman]

in what sense? It is only recently that the Tories lost it. Unless you think it's a foregone conclusion they'll lose it again.

[minionofmidas]

Aug 9, 2022 13:47:58 GMT michaelarden said:

Aug 9, 2022 11:40:45 GMT The Bishop said:

Yes, will be a major surprise if the Independents don't win - especially given the cause of the vacancy. A book on the Spelthorne contest might have been better.

Not convinced Spelthorne is any more interesting either.

Wychavon then. (Not exactly spoiled for choice this week.)

[Adam in Stroud]

Aug 9, 2022 17:20:26 GMT minionofmidas said:

Aug 9, 2022 13:47:58 GMT michaelarden said:

Not convinced Spelthorne is any more interesting either.

Wychavon then. (Not exactly spoiled for choice this week.)

In casein helps, it is. nice part of the country. Ombersley is rather lovely, but I don't think I've passed through Doddershill. 

[John Chanin]

My turn to post Andrew’s preview

medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-three-council-by-elections-of-11th-august-2022-41782e0a903a

[batman]

In his contribution to previous print editions of the Almanac of British Politics, Robert Waller mentioned Inkberrow in Worcestershire (in the Redditch constituency) as a likely model for Ambridge.

[Chris from Brum]

Aug 11, 2022 14:24:41 GMT batman said:

In his contribution to previous print editions of the Almanac of British Politics, Robert Waller mentioned Inkberrow in Worcestershire (in the Redditch constituency) as a likely model for Ambridge.

That has often been suggested, along with Hanbury as an alternative. There are probably elements of both places in the mix.

[andrewp]

Aug 11, 2022 14:24:41 GMT batman said:

In his contribution to previous print editions of the Almanac of British Politics, Robert Waller mentioned Inkberrow in Worcestershire (in the Redditch constituency) as a likely model for Ambridge.

Quite odd to think of the Archers voting in Redditch constituency.

I doubt many people in Inkberrow are chuffed with being linked to Redditch either

[maxque]

Aug 11, 2022 17:25:29 GMT andrewp said:

Aug 11, 2022 14:24:41 GMT batman said:

In his contribution to previous print editions of the Almanac of British Politics, Robert Waller mentioned Inkberrow in Worcestershire (in the Redditch constituency) as a likely model for Ambridge.

Quite odd to think of the Archers voting in Redditch constituency.

I doubt many people in Inkberrow are chuffed with being linked to Redditch either

And the current proposal insanely puts Dodderhil in Redditch, despite being between Droitwich and Bromsgrove and despite the ward having no road links to the rest of the constituency (all in the name of misguided "minimal change").

[John Chanin]

Aug 11, 2022 19:07:27 GMT maxque said:

Aug 11, 2022 17:25:29 GMT andrewp said:

Quite odd to think of the Archers voting in Redditch constituency.

I doubt many people in Inkberrow are chuffed with being linked to Redditch either

And the current proposal insanely puts Dodderhil in Redditch, despite being between Droitwich and Bromsgrove and despite the ward having no road links to the rest of the constituency (all in the name of misguided "minimal change").

Well the sensible way to top up Redditch is to add Studley, which is effectively a suburb of the town, but is also over the border in Warwickshire.  The second best solution is to add the commuter villages between Redditch and Birmingham, linked by the railway, but this means Bromsgrove constituency would no longer be coterminous with the District.  Since the BCE won’t do either of these things, you are stuck with this sub-optimal solution.

[redtony]

When did Labour last contest Ambridge

[john07]

Aug 11, 2022 20:38:45 GMT redtony said:

When did Labour last contest Ambridge

They were going to stand but Eddie Grundy declined the nomination.

[listener]

If I recall correctly, Jill Archer was elected to South Borsetshire District Council in 1973, during the reorganisation elections, and proceeded to have a run in with one of the aldermen on the council. Aldermen had been abolished under the Local Government Act 1972, but were still serving in Greater London and The Isles of Scilly. It was unclear whether South Borsetshire came under Greater London or The Isles of Scilly.

[andrewp]

Bridgend Central

Ind 716
Lab 590
Con 150
Green 40
LD 34

[Rutlander]

Aug 11, 2022 22:14:45 GMT listener said:

If I recall correctly, Jill Archer was elected to South Borsetshire District Council in 1973, during the reorganisation elections, and proceeded to have a run in with one of the aldermen on the council. Aldermen had been abolished under the Local Government Act 1972, but were still serving in Greater London and The Isles of Scilly. It was unclear whether South Borsetshire came under Greater London or The Isles of Scilly.

Mark Hebden (Shula's husband, a solicitor) won the "canning factory ward" (an unofficial ward name, I think) for the SDP in the mid-80s