andrea
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Post by andrea on Sept 25, 2022 22:49:05 GMT
New projection by RAI. Things are pretty stable
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Post by rcronald on Sept 25, 2022 22:50:48 GMT
New projection by RAI. Things are pretty stable Which one is more reliable, RAI or La7? |
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 25, 2022 22:53:17 GMT
Is there already a proJection of the seats per party out?
As long as the 3 parties suffer no major deFections Noi Moderati won't be needed (and will anyWay not get any MPs?).
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Post by rcronald on Sept 25, 2022 22:54:17 GMT
Is there already a proJection of the seats per party out? As long as the 3 parties suffer no major deFections Noi Moderati won't be needed (and will anyWay not get any MPs?). Yes, but there is going to be an update in a couple of minutes, so I would wait. |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Sept 25, 2022 22:57:20 GMT
New projection by RAI. Things are pretty stable Which one is more reliable, RAI or La7? It varies from election to election. |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 25, 2022 23:06:51 GMT
Is there already a proJection of the seats per party out? As long as the 3 parties suffer no major deFections Noi Moderati won't be needed (and will anyWay not get any MPs?). Sky News projection: Centre Right: 238 Fdl - 116 Lega - 64 FI - 50 Noi Mod - 8 Centre Left: 83 PD - 66 Verdi/Sin - 13 +E - 3 Imp.civ - 1 M5S : 49 IV : 19 SVP: 3 Abroad : 8 |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Sept 25, 2022 23:11:15 GMT
La7 projections based on first counting Coalition Right 43.3% PD and allies 25.4% M5S 17 Calenda/Renzi 7.9 FdI 26 Lega 8.4 Forza Italia 7.0 Noi moderati 1 PD 18.1 Green Left 3.6 +Europe 3.1 Di Maio 0.6 M5S 17 Renzi-Calenda 7.9 Updated projection Coalition Right 43.8% PD and allies 25.8% M5S 16.6 Calenda/Renzi 7.8 FdI 26 Lega 8.7 Forza Italia 8.2 Noi moderati 0.9 PD 18.3 Green Left 3.7 +Europe 3.1 Di Maio 0.8 New projection on la7 FdI 26.1 Lega 8.8 Forza Italia 8.2 Noi moderati 0.9 PD 18.7 Green Left 3.6 +Europe 3.1 Di Maio 0.6 I missed M5S and Calenda. |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Sept 25, 2022 23:28:02 GMT
La7 seats projection for Senate
Right 109-119
PD and friends 38-48
M5S 22-32
Calenda 9-11
Majority is at 101
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Post by rcronald on Sept 25, 2022 23:33:51 GMT
La7 seats projection for Senate Right 109-119 PD and friends 38-48 M5S 22-32 Calenda 9-11 Majority is at 101 Projection by %? |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Sept 25, 2022 23:40:56 GMT
La7 seats projection for Senate Right 109-119 PD and friends 38-48 M5S 22-32 Calenda 9-11 Majority is at 101 Projection by %? they didn't update the previous one (44 to 26%). They just updated the seats count because the situation in some FPTP constituencies is becoming clearer. |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 25, 2022 23:44:41 GMT
they didn't update the previous one (44 to 26%). They just updated the seats count because the situation in some FPTP constituencies is becoming clearer. It seems odd that they have the right winning a larger share of the popular vote then RAI and Sky but give them a lower seat count. |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Sept 26, 2022 0:03:50 GMT
they didn't update the previous one (44 to 26%). They just updated the seats count because the situation in some FPTP constituencies is becoming clearer. It seems odd that they have the right winning a larger share of the popular vote then RAI and Sky but give them a lower seat count. IIRC La7 have Noi Moderato at 0.9. So it wouldn't be counted (parties below 1% are not counted in the coalition totals) bringing R down to 43.1. So basically the same. Probably they are modeling distribution a bit differently (Senate PR seats are allocated at regional level rather than national) |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Sept 26, 2022 0:06:25 GMT
Di Maio out of the Parliament. He is losing Napoli Fuorigrotta constituency to former M5S minister Costa.
Looks like Casini is going to survive in Bologna
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Post by rcronald on Sept 26, 2022 0:15:40 GMT
Di Maio out of the Parliament. He is losing Napoli Fuorigrotta constituency to former M5S minister Costa. Looks like Casini is going to survive in Bologna I would have been very surprised if Casini lost. |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Sept 26, 2022 0:40:31 GMT
Final projection for the Senate by La7
FDI 26,1%
PD 19,2%
M5S 15,5%
LEGA 8,9%
FI 8,2%
Calenda/Renzi 7,6%
Green/Left 3,6%
+EU 3%
ITALEXIT 1,8%
UP 1,3%
NOI MODERATI 0,9%
Di Maio thing 0,6%
I go to sleep
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Post by rcronald on Sept 26, 2022 4:07:29 GMT
First fully counted competitive constituency, and Aosta Valley split its ticket once again:
Senate: Centre Right win by 0.42%
CoD: Centre Left win by 8.83%
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Post by rcronald on Sept 26, 2022 5:21:21 GMT
The right was clearly underestimated in the red belt and north and overestimated in the south |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 26, 2022 5:24:31 GMT
These are the closest Camera-races according to Sondaggi BiDiMedia:  The right winning Livorno would be something….. Bloody hell, they actually won Livorno….. Edit: In a significantly bigger upset, the right has won Ravenna by 49 votes…. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Sept 26, 2022 5:33:49 GMT
Looks like Sud Chiama Nord won Messina. Was that expected in any way?
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Post by rcronald on Sept 26, 2022 5:55:39 GMT
Looks like the left has held on to Carpi and Imola by the skin of its teeth, winning Carpi by 0.78% and Imola by 2.54%, combined with their surprise lose in Ravenna (all models showed it as a safe Dem seat) and disastrous night in Tuscany (only winning 2 seats out of 9 and losing the region outright for the first time since 1958), the left is clearly in a downward spiral in the red belt.
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