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Post by connor on Jul 22, 2022 17:41:02 GMT
When did this last happen?
Beats going around more prime ministers over five years.
Worse than the UK right now in terms of PM longevity.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 22, 2022 21:48:54 GMT
When did this last happen? Beats going around more prime ministers over five years. Worse than the UK right now in terms of PM longevity. Well, (if we're talking heads of government regardless of title), the UK has had four since the 1st January 2010 (Brown, Cameron, May, Johnson). Poland, Ireland and Denmark are also on four, Belgium has had five. France, Slovenia and Italy have had 7, as has Australia if you count Rudd twice, and Greece with various caretakers. Two Kevin Rudds, what a frightening idea. Likewise Austria if you count Kurz twice. Spain, Sweden, Norway and Portugal have had 3, the same as Turkey, which doesn't have one anymore. The Netherlands, Germany and Hungary are on just two. Romania has had a whopping ten, and that's not including caretakers and Victor Ponta turning up three times. |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jul 23, 2022 9:11:53 GMT
Italian post 1945 governments by length (not counting caretaking periods)
1. Berlusconi II 1409 days
2. Berlusconi IV 1283
3. Craxi I 1058
4. Renzi 1019
5. Prodi I 874
6. Moro III 832
8. De Gasperi VII 704
9. Segni I 670
7. Prodi II 617
10. Andreotti VI 614
11. De Gasperi V 598
14. Fanfani III 555
13. Moro II 547
12. Andreotti III 535
16. De Gasperi VI 535
15. Colombo 527
20. Draghi 523
19. Conte II 509
21. Scelba 497
17. Gentiloni 467
23. Fanfani IV 448
25. Conte I 445
28. D'Alema I 423
26. Moro IV 410
29. Spadolini I 405
18. Monti 401
24. De Mita 401
30. Amato II 400
31. Zoli 395
27. Andreotti VII 377
33. Berlusconi III 374
32. Segni II 373
22. Dini 359
34. Andreotti II 351
37. De Gasperi IV 346
36. Andreotti IV 324
38. Amato I 298
39. Letta 292
35. Ciampi 259
45. Rumor IV 237
47. Cossiga I 227
41. Goria 226
44. Berlusconi I 225
42. Forlani 220
40. Craxi II 214
51. Fanfani II 208
48. Rumor I 204
50. Moro I 204
43. Rumor V 202
52. De Gasperi II 190
49. Rumor II 185
53. Cossiga II 177
46. Fanfani V 149
54. Leone II 147
57. Pella 141
56. Leone I 136
61. D'Alema II 119
62. Tambroni 115
59. Rumor III 100
63. De Gasperi III 100
65. Spadolini II 82
55. Moro V 78
66. De Gasperi VIII 12
67. Fanfani I 11
58. Andreotti V 10
64. Fanfani VI 10
60. Andreotti I 8
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 23, 2022 9:15:03 GMT
If you were to re-order that list by who you thought had had the most impact on Italian politics and society, it would look very different.
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jul 24, 2022 17:07:14 GMT
A poll by Tecné for Mediaet
Brothers of Italy 23.5
Democratic Party 23,1%
Lega 14,6%
Forza Italia 10,6%
M5S 9,4%
Az/+Eu (Calenda) 4,9%
Greens/Italian Left 4,1%
Italia Viva (Renzi) 2,8%
Italexit 2,5%
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 24, 2022 19:17:00 GMT
Some maps with annotations to give an impression of things to those not familiar with the strange world of Italian elections. Firstly:  This map shows the winning electoral coalition in each single member constituency for the Chamber of Deputies. As you can see, the expected landslide for the Right happened in the northern half of the country, but it was matched by an unexpected MS5 landslide further south as the PD vote there crumbled and collapsed in the last week of the campaign, to MS5's advantage. Before we go further, an important note. The social geography of Italy is very different to that of Britain (or the North West of Europe in general) which means that a lot of conclusions you might intuitively read from the maps would be inaccurate ones. Broadly speaking, People Of Money in Italy never really saw the appeal of the suburban lifestyle, preferring to retain a permanent residence in or near the city centre and a summer home somewhere out in the countryside or on the coast. This means that the sort of wealth that in Britain is generally concentrated around the edges of a metropolitan region is, in Italy, generally found in the inner parts. Italian inner cities, then, are not full of a mixture of poor people and Bobos, but of the sort of solid, stolid bourgeois types who in Britain tend to live in Surrey or wherever. This also has implications for the suburbs: while comparatively affluent middle class suburbs do exist (and there are some sketchy inner city areas as well: most notably in Genoa), most are more working class than not and (if in the North) quite industrial/postindustrial in character and (if in the South) barely a step up from shanty towns. Understand this and then, and only then, will you be able to appreciate quite how utterly strange Italian electoral geography has become. That out of the way, the major parties... well... as of the last election anyway...  As odd a party as the MS5 is, this map requires very little explanation. It is a map of the losers of the Second Republic, a map of those who have seen their living standards fall and who have not reaped any of the benefits of greater European integration. Strong support in the South - especially in historically PCI voting regions - in northern industrial suburbs and the rotting industrial port of Genoa, in Sardinia and in the grimmer suburbs of Rome. Naples emerged as a particular stronghold, with remarkable numbers in its Camorra-cursed proletarian eastern suburbs. Weaker in places where people have less to complain about - which isn't quite the same as saying 'rich', even if there's a correlation.  The PD is a ridiculous party with an absurd and improbable history (it is the legal heir to both the PCI and the DCs) and its electoral map in 2018 is appropriately absurd. The skeleton over which everything else is constructed is the genepool vote inherited ultimately from the PCI, at least in the northern two thirds of the country: in the south this vote melted away to the benefit of the MS5. On top of this we have voters inherited from the left-wing of the DCs and on top of that we have many bourgeois voters who liked Renzi and who voted PD for, very frequently, the first time ever in 2018 despite the party's abysmal showing elsewhere: look at Milan!  The core of Lega's support is the same as it ever was: genepool DC and PSI voters in comfortable conservative towns (some of which are actually quite industrial) and countryside in the north of Italy, and its area of extreme weakness is also the same - the South. Elsewhere, something new happened: a massive electoral incursion into Central Italy and stronger showings in the more working class parts of larger cities in the North of the country. It would be an error to assume that all of these voters were historically left-wing: in the former, at least, there's some correlation with postfascist electoral support and it will be interesting to see how much of this Lega holds onto now that postfascism is off its electoral deathbed and heading for the top.  Once the dominant force in Italian political life, but a busted flush by 2018 and less than that now. Forza Italia's remaining northern support (still quite substantial in Lombardy at least in 2018) was well-heeled and elderly, while its remaining southern support (even more substantial) was rather less well-heeled but equally elderly, and quite obviously linked to all those old school clientelist practices the party was keen on right from the start. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 24, 2022 19:29:27 GMT
Smaller parties now... at least in 2018...  The heirs to Italy's postfascist tradition, and, in 2018, a minor party largely reduced to a rump of support concentrated around Rome (especially its affluent northern districts) with only a few signs of the historic strength of the party in much of central and southern Italy. So a map of Lazio fans, in practice. Things will look very different this year.  A left-wing anti-Renzi splinter from the PD, but headed by longtime Party bureaucrats with about as much charisma as polenta so, if you will, the Italian 'Change UK' in that it was a splinter party comprised of exactly the wrong people to form a splinter party. Baffling and random electoral map, frankly.  An option for wealthy liberals who think that Renzi is a twat: which turned out to be a reasonable number of people. Exactly the patterns you'd expect.  Crap DC genepool list: this is just a map of particular clientelist patterns.  A combined map of two more crap DC genepool lists, ibid.  A map of lists (inc. the absurd 'Casa Pound') on the extreme, rather than far, right. A bit random apart from Bozen/Bolzano.  A map of various far left lists. Nothing especially shocking here, though not uninteresting. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jul 24, 2022 20:19:50 GMT
The PD is a ridiculous party with an absurd and improbable history (it is the legal heir to both the PCI and the DCs) and its electoral map in 2018 is appropriately absurd. The skeleton over which everything else is constructed is the genepool vote inherited ultimately from the PCI, at least in the northern two thirds of the country: in the south this vote melted away to the benefit of the MS5. On top of this we have voters inherited from the left-wing of the DCs and on top of that we have many bourgeois voters who liked Renzi and who voted PD for, very frequently, the first time ever in 2018 despite the party's abysmal showing elsewhere: look at Milan! Can you explain more about what sort of demographics vote PD (my impression is that it’s one of the least ‘labour’ style parties in Western Europe). Also, what’s the reason for PD (and previously PCI) support in north central Italy (class, economy, culture etc)? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 24, 2022 20:28:15 GMT
Two strands to the PCI strength of old in those areas: 1. More heavily organised agricultural labour. 2. Anti-clericalism was stronger in those areas. Good point by Sibboleth about the urban geography (also seen in France to a lesser extent, and to a more exaggerated degree in the largest ethnically-Italian city of them all: Sao Paulo). "La periferia" is a trope in Italian culture even now, but possibly less than it was. "Anna e Marco" by Lucio Dalla springs to mind, for those interested in Italian music. |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jul 24, 2022 20:36:27 GMT
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 24, 2022 20:55:54 GMT
Two strands to the PCI strength of old in those areas: 1. More heavily organised agricultural labour. 2. Anti-clericalism was stronger in those areas. Good point by Sibboleth about the urban geography (also seen in France to a lesser extent, and to a more exaggerated degree in the largest ethnically-Italian city of them all: Sao Paulo). "La periferia" is a trope in Italian culture even now, but possibly less than it was. "Anna e Marco" by Lucio Dalla springs to mind, for those interested in Italian music. nah, to be honest my one track mind springs to Moravia and early Pasolini. And Ragazze of Sanfrediano (what's the author called? Vasco sthg.) It's kind of important here that Italy is pretty much the one place in western Europe that continues to make things. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 24, 2022 21:16:14 GMT
Two strands to the PCI strength of old in those areas: 1. More heavily organised agricultural labour. 2. Anti-clericalism was stronger in those areas. Good point by Sibboleth about the urban geography (also seen in France to a lesser extent, and to a more exaggerated degree in the largest ethnically-Italian city of them all: Sao Paulo). "La periferia" is a trope in Italian culture even now, but possibly less than it was. "Anna e Marco" by Lucio Dalla springs to mind, for those interested in Italian music. nah, to be honest my one track mind springs to Moravia and early Pasolini. And Ragazze of Sanfrediano (what's the author called? Vasco sthg.) It's kind of important here that Italy is pretty much the one place in western Europe that continues to make things. Pratolini. Your mind clearly jumped to more highbrow angles than mine! This was the other one that struck me. |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 24, 2022 21:38:16 GMT
How many comuni? What was the size of an average comuno? It is interesting that there are some which are small enough to have a plurality for the small parties like Monarchists or MSI etc |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jul 24, 2022 22:11:28 GMT
How many comuni? What was the size of an average comuno? It is interesting that there are some which are small enough to have a plurality for the small parties like Monarchists or MSI etc Currently, Italy have 7,904 comuni. Ranging from Rome (2,758,218 inhabitants) to Morterone (31 inhabintants). Average size is 14,900 inhabitants. I don't know how many municipalities there were back in 1968. However, there has not been a major municipal government restructure since. Some municipalities merged, some split...but more or less they were 8,000 also in the 60s. I see 1971 Census had 8,056 comuni. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 25, 2022 11:18:08 GMT
How many comuni? What was the size of an average comuno? It is interesting that there are some which are small enough to have a plurality for the small parties like Monarchists or MSI etc Currently, Italy have 7,904 comuni. Ranging from Rome (2,758,218 inhabitants) to Morterone (31 inhabintants). Average size is 14,900 inhabitants. I don't know how many municipalities there were back in 1968. However, there has not been a major municipal government restructure since. Some municipalities merged, some split...but more or less they were 8,000 also in the 60s. I see 1971 Census had 8,056 comuni. ...and a look at that municipalityMap reveals another reason, why the northern centre has been so left: The big area of its comuni demonstrates, that the land has been totally overwhelmed by the towns. Italy has - like the other parts of coreEurope - been dominated by poleis/urbs/città, but the zona rossa especially (in that regard being "Italia italianissima"). Thus my imPression has been, that Sardinians, Sicilians, Venetians, Lombards are proud of their regions, those in the norther Mid are also, of course - but even more of their homeTown Florence, Siena, Urbino aso. (in extremis: Who will feel as an "Emilia-Romagnan"?). |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 25, 2022 11:21:18 GMT
Apropos elec.maps: The 1.400 i have collected are too many for copying them into a dropBox, but if anyone has any special interEsts, i can post some here.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 25, 2022 19:34:11 GMT
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jul 28, 2022 7:15:13 GMT
FDI-Lega-FI reached an agreement for single candidates in FPTP constituencies.
Current electoral system is
Camera
148 FPTP seats
244 proportional seats (threshold is 3%* at national level. Number of seats assigned based on national result and then distributed by sub-areas)
8 seats for Italian abroad
Senate
74 FPTP seats
122 proportional seats (threshold is 3% at national level. Number of seats assigned based on national result and then distributed by sub-areas)
4 seats for Italian abroad
* or 20% at regional level for Senate. Or winning 2 FPTP constituencies but valid only for lists representing language minorities.
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jul 28, 2022 17:22:15 GMT
The electoral law has also this gem
The parties that are part of a coalition and that take between 1 and 3% have their votes distributed, proportionally, to the other lists of the same coalition that have exceeded 3%. The votes of the lists that remain below 1% are instead completely lost
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 28, 2022 17:34:30 GMT
Hoping for a SVP win. It is the change Italy needs.
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