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Post by andrewteale on Aug 4, 2022 15:29:23 GMT
"North Isles" is not the most accurate name for the ward as half the inhabited islands (Bruray, Housay and Whalsay) are not in that group. The southern part of the ward seems to have been arbitrarily tacked on. The largest population (2011 census) is on Whalsay (1061), followed by Yell (966), Unst (632), Fetlar (61), Housay (50) and Bruray (24). I await the anti postal vote crusaders to tell us why Bruray should have a polling station on it for an electoral turnout potentially counted on one hand. Housay and Bruray (the Out Skerries) can be considered together, as there's a bridge between them. How would a 2 member ward for the actual North Isles (Yell, Unst and Fetlar) and a single member ward for Whalsay and the Out Skerries have worked with the electorate numbers? Based on the numbers above it'd have been a bit generous to the former. That was actually the original proposal which Boundaries Scotland put to Shetland council. The council did not like the idea of a single member ward and instead put forward their own proposal for a two-member ward combining Whalsay and the Skerries with part of Mainland. This was rejected by the public consultation. |
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Post by casualobserver on Aug 4, 2022 23:53:48 GMT
Labour hold with LibDems surprisingly close second
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Post by casualobserver on Aug 4, 2022 23:55:13 GMT
Lab 1486
LD 1076
Con 154
Ind 58
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Post by listener on Aug 5, 2022 0:24:17 GMT
It looks as if Middle Englander has gone to bed. In his absence, I make this a swing since 2019 from Lab to Lib Dem of just under 26%. The Lib Dems did not field a candidate in 2019 and have polled 38.8% yesterday.
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 5, 2022 0:29:59 GMT
It looks as if Middle Englander has gone to bed. In his absence, I make this a swing since 2019 from Lab to Lib Dem of just under 26%. The Lib Dems did not field a candidate in 2019 and have polled 38.8% yesterday. Still up. Swing compared to 2019 is meaningless. |
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Post by listener on Aug 5, 2022 0:39:04 GMT
There was speculation above as to why the North isles division of the Shetland Islands attracted insufficient candidates in May and now has 5 candidates competing for the 1 remaining seat.
Another factor could be an unwillingness to challenge incumbents in areas without political competition, where personal following is more significant with local voters. If potential candidates do not know that popular incumbents are standing down, they may be deterred from standing.
This happened in 2017 in the Yscir division of Powys in Wales, where Independent Gillian Thomas, who had served since 1995, had decided to retire at the age of 79, but had not published her decision. Initially there were no candidates nominated, but the re-run on 22 June attracted 6 candidates, 3 political and 3 Independent, and resulted in a Conservative victory.
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Post by listener on Aug 5, 2022 0:42:56 GMT
Now, now, Middle Englander - the swing in Luton Dallow is not meaningless. The precise mathematical calculation may not be entirely meaningful, but the Lib Dems have gone from no vote to 38.8% of the vote. This is a far more significant result, than a vote share of say 3.8%.
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 5, 2022 6:30:45 GMT
Now, now, Middle Englander - the swing in Luton Dallow is not meaningless. The precise mathematical calculation may not be entirely meaningful, but the Lib Dems have gone from no vote to 38.8% of the vote. This is a far more significant result, than a vote share of say 3.8%. I think that's a fair argument, but middleenglander is applying his consistent rules, as he has as long as he has performing this service to the forum, and he uses the word meaningless a lot, particularly to apply to "swings" where one party was previously absent. He is making , as you say, a precise mathematical calculation and needs to be consistent. You and I can look at the figures and make our own joyful conclusion about the "swing". |
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Post by batman on Aug 5, 2022 6:57:08 GMT
Perhaps the result is not quite as surprising as most of us think. By-election results tend to differ a great deal depending on the circumstances of the by-election. When the election is caused by a resignation, either for a perceived misdemeanour or for other reasons that the electorate find unacceptable (e.g. after serving for a ridiculously short period of time), or by a disqualification, the defending party tends to be on the end of a large swing. This can be accentuated if, as is the case here, the defending party has a very large majority on the authority. If on the other hand a councillor has died, or has been forced to resign by unfortunate & unavoidable circumstances beyond their control, the swing will tend to be much smaller, if indeed there is a negative one at all. The Lib Dems have in the past had a formidable presence on Luton council and in an inner-city ward such as Dallow they were seen as the go-to party for voters wishing to protest against Labour, even though I don't think they have generally won the town centre wards before.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 5, 2022 7:26:27 GMT
The town centre itself is in South ward where the Lib Dems have never really come close and most of their strengh in the town is in the much more white and suburban wards around Stopsley. They did however win Biscot back in the post-Iraq years and that is very demographically similar to Dallow - indeed they weren't too far off winning seats in Dallow itself around that time. Given the demographics here - an overwhelmingly Asian and muslim ward, the usual rules apply - personal and clan voting. Whether or not the swing to the Lib Dems is meaningful in the sense that middleenglander uses the term, it is pretty meaningless in terms of being indicative of any wider partisan shifts, even in Luton let alone further afield (and yes the circumstances giving rise to the by-election will also be a factor) |
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Post by grahammurray on Aug 5, 2022 8:30:25 GMT
It looks as if Middle Englander has gone to bed. In his absence, I make this a swing since 2019 from Lab to Lib Dem of just under 26%. The Lib Dems did not field a candidate in 2019 and have polled 38.8% yesterday. Still up. Swing compared to 2019 is meaningless. No, it isn't. |
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Post by froome on Aug 5, 2022 9:03:25 GMT
I have spent quite a lot of time on Shetland without ever getting to any of these islands. I feel that's properly remote. Unst is a lovely island, its population scattered around so it never feels completely remote, surprisingly green and with some stunning scenery, especially its north-facing cliffs. Yell, on the other hand, is just very bleak, all peaty moorland with nothing growing above a foot tall, so incredibly windswept. I haven't been to any of the smaller islands, but would love to go back to Unst one day. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 5, 2022 9:24:14 GMT
I'm sure that the reason for the Luton vacancy got mentioned on the LibDem leaflets, I was expecting a bit of a Labour dip as a result.
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 5, 2022 9:32:24 GMT
Labour hold with LibDems surprisingly close second It is back to pre-coalition times in an authority where the Lib Dems are the official opposition. This has been true in local politics for ages, but as has always been the case, only where considerable effort is put in. (eg a local by-election) |
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 5, 2022 9:38:57 GMT
It looks as if Middle Englander has gone to bed. In his absence, I make this a swing since 2019 from Lab to Lib Dem of just under 26%. The Lib Dems did not field a candidate in 2019 and have polled 38.8% yesterday. Still up. Swing compared to 2019 is meaningless. Well, I am happy with the 18.45% swing since 2015 "average" Although that is not particularly meaningful in any national context, except to say that people still see some "meaning" in our Party if we take the trouble to talk to them.. |
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 5, 2022 10:27:51 GMT
I have spent quite a lot of time on Shetland without ever getting to any of these islands. I feel that's properly remote. Unst is a lovely island, its population scattered around so it never feels completely remote, surprisingly green and with some stunning scenery, especially its north-facing cliffs. Yell, on the other hand, is just very bleak, all peaty moorland with nothing growing above a foot tall, so incredibly windswept. I haven't been to any of the smaller islands, but would love to go back to Unst one day. Interesting. My knowledge of Shetland is very much focussed on the south, i.e. the Lerwick/Sumburgh axis.That bit I know pretty well, and it's a shame I didn't have time when doing that to venture further north. |
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 5, 2022 10:36:13 GMT
In order to kill two birds with one stone: Luton: Dallow| Party | 2022 share | 2011 share
top candidate | 2007 share
top candidate | 2003 share
top candidate | 2011 share
average | 2011 share
average | 2011 share
average | | Labour | 53.6% | 42.6% | 37.9% | 34.9% | 45.1% | 37.1% | 34.6% | | Liberal Democrat | 38.8% | 28.3% | 24.7% | 24.9% | 28.2% | 26.8% | 25.2% | | Conservative | 5.6% | 14.5% | 12.9% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 10.6% | | Others | 2.1% | 14.6% | 24.5% | 30.4% | 15.9% | 23.8% | 29.7% | | Row 6 column 1 |
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| Labour majority
over Liberal Democrat | 14.8% | 14% | 13% | 10% | 17% | 10% | 9% |
As others have pointed out, last night's result was very much in line with those from 2011, 2007 and 2003.
Turning now to swings:
The Liberal Democrats did not contest the Dallow seat in 2019. I do not believe anyone knows what vote and share they would have achieved if they had stood - it is extremely unlikely it would have been 0% whilst it is possible, given the history of the seat, it could have been around 20%. I therefore believe it is very misleading (at least) to use 0% as a base for calculating swings.
Consider now the Parish Council elections in Wingerworth (North East Derbyshire) - see Town Council thread.
Adlington Ward
Last night Labour polled 50%, Conservative polled 39% and the Liberal Democrat 11%.
In 2019 the top Liberal Democrat polled 57% against 43% for No Description.
Is anyone really suggesting the Liberal Democrat to Labour swing was 48%.
Wingerworth Ward
Last night Conservatives polled 65%, Retired Account 19% and the Liberal Democrat 16%
In 2019 the Conservatives did not stand whilst the top Independent polled 61% and the top Liberal Democrat 39% - similar figures if the average is used.
Is anyone really suggesting the Liberal Democrat to Conservative swing was 44%.
I think such a swing calculation for these two elections is nonsense. As it is for any election where the party did not stand a candidate in the previous contest - unless running under a different description.
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 5, 2022 10:37:30 GMT
Independents standing in a local by election in Shetland - not sure you could make up a lesser appealing election for a psephologist. Have to say I disagree quite strongly with that comment, and am awaiting the result (soon?) with some real interest - there is far more information readily available about all 5 candidates, their backgrounds and their policy priorities, without having to rely on the doubtful lenses of twitter or facebook, or make assumptions based on party labels. Much better than a safe Labour seat in boring Luton, though I have to say that one was rather more interesting than expected. |
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Post by andrewp on Aug 5, 2022 10:43:15 GMT
North Isles turnout is 46.2%
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 5, 2022 10:47:31 GMT
Independents standing in a local by election in Shetland - not sure you could make up a lesser appealing election for a psephologist. Have to say I disagree quite strongly with that comment, and am awaiting the result (soon?) with some real interest - there is far more information readily available about all 5 candidates, their backgrounds and their policy priorities, without having to rely on the doubtful lenses of twitter or facebook, or make assumptions based on party labels. Much better than a safe Labour seat in boring Luton, though I have to say that one was rather more interesting than expected. I would go further and say there is no such thing as a truly "boring" by-election - as andrewteale has made so gloriously clear in recent years. (even unopposed ones usually have intrinsic interest, not least in why they are not contested) |
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