Local Council by-elections 4th August 2022

[Tony Otim]

LUTON UA; Dallow (Lab disqualified)
Candidates:
AZAD NIKYALVI, Malik (Conservative)
HUSSAIN, Basharat (Liberal Democrat)
KHAN, Alia (Labour)
SCHEIMANN, Marc (Independent)

2019: Lab 2606, 2338, 2311; Ind 801; Con 515, 462
2015: Lab 3374, 3273, 3183; LD 905, 869, 718; Con 750, 639, 474
2011: Lab 1984, 1914, 1870; LD 1319, 1181, 1105; Ind 678; Con 677, 378, 341
2007: Lab 1448, 1244, 1106; LD 946, 912, 890; Ind 936; Resp 820, 678; Con 493, 388, 381
2003: Lab 1097, 901, 811; Ind 956, 654; LD 783, 693, 572; Co 307, 290, 261

Marc Scheimann is a regular candidate, formerly for the Greens – in 2019 he contested South ward and later the Icknield by-elections for the Greens and last year the Round Green and South by-elections as an independent. He also contested Luton South in general elections from 1997 – 2010 and in 2017 for the Greens.

Current Council: Lab 30; LD 14; Con 2; Ind 1; 1 vacancy



SHETLAND UA; North Isles (vacant seat – 2 independents elected for 3 seats in May)
Candidates:
CLEAVER, Gary (Independent)
DOUGLAS, Stewart (Independent)
ROBERTSON, Sonia (Independent)
THOMSON, Robert William (Independent)
WILLIAMSON, Marie (Independent)

2022: Duncan Anderson and Ryan Thomson elected unopposed
2017: Duncan Simpson 453; Ryan Thomson 372; Priest 327; Hughson 185; Cunningham 76
2012: Henderson 430; Coutts 331; Cleaver 301; Johnston 159; Skinner 158
2007: Josie Simpson 479; Baisley 197; Henderson 145; Gregson 145; Gordon Williamson 126; Odie 117; Laurence Robertson 113; Robert Thomson 107

Marie Williamson stood in Lerwick North & Bressay in May (she doesn’t give her address on the SOPN). Stewart Douglas stood in Shetland South in May (he also does not give his address). Gary Cleaver was councillor for the ward (boundaries remain unchanged) from 2012-17 but did not re-stand in 2017. A Robert Thomson stood back in 2007 and came last of 8 candidates with 107 votes, but I can’t say if it is the same person. Cleaver gives an Unst address and Robertson and Thomson Yell addresses.

Current Council: 19 Ind, 1 Grn, 1Lab, 1 SNP, 1 vacancy

[phil156]

Luton count Thursday night Shetlands is of course 11am on Friday

[timrollpickering]

I like the way Elections Maps draws arbitrary boundaries in the sea between some islands then hugs the coast for others. If a submarine is parked up here is it in the ward or not?

On a more serious point how many of the islands are inhabited and which ones are served by polling places on other islands?

[iainbhx]

Aug 1, 2022 17:42:15 GMT timrollpickering said:

I like the way Elections Maps draws arbitrary boundaries in the sea between some islands then hugs the coast for others. If a submarine is parked up here is it in the ward or not?

On a more serious point how many of the islands are inhabited and which ones are served by polling places on other islands?

The notice of poll tells me there are six polling stations

2 on Unst, 3 on Yell and 1 on Whalsay. One of the polling stations on Yell serves Fetlar. Two of the Out Skerries are populated and are in the ward.

[finsobruce]

Aug 1, 2022 18:14:50 GMT iainbhx said:

Aug 1, 2022 17:42:15 GMT timrollpickering said:

I like the way Elections Maps draws arbitrary boundaries in the sea between some islands then hugs the coast for others. If a submarine is parked up here is it in the ward or not?

On a more serious point how many of the islands are inhabited and which ones are served by polling places on other islands?

The notice of poll tells me there are six polling stations

2 on Unst, 3 on Yell and 1 on Whalsay. One of the polling stations on Yell serves Fetlar. Two of the Out Skerries are populated and are in the ward.

And possibly on the submarine if the village hall is closed for refurbishment.

[John Chanin]

Apparently they are proposing to build a spaceport on Unst, which might increase the population.

[owainsutton]

Aug 1, 2022 17:42:15 GMT timrollpickering said:

I like the way Elections Maps draws arbitrary boundaries in the sea between some islands then hugs the coast for others. If a submarine is parked up here is it in the ward or not?

On a more serious point how many of the islands are inhabited and which ones are served by polling places on other islands?

The straight lines are easily defined, when they're between two headlines, or other identifiable features such as lighthouses. It's the boundary between North Isles and Shetland North that intrigues me, is it maybe a very clearly-charted navigation channel?

As for islands and polling stations, this is the kind of location where postal voting was the norm for some people long before it was available to all. One of the earliest reasons for eligibility for a postal vote was that it would be necessary to cross open water to reach one's polling station.

[Clark]

Independents standing in a local by election in Shetland - not sure you could make up a lesser appealing election for a psephologist.

[finsobruce]

Aug 2, 2022 11:46:49 GMT Clark said:

Independents standing in a local by election in Shetland - not sure you could make up a lesser appealing election for a psephologist.

Independents standing in the new Stoke on Trent & Ynys Mon combined authority?

[timrollpickering]

Aug 1, 2022 18:14:50 GMT iainbhx said:

Aug 1, 2022 17:42:15 GMT timrollpickering said:

On a more serious point how many of the islands are inhabited and which ones are served by polling places on other islands?

The notice of poll tells me there are six polling stations

2 on Unst, 3 on Yell and 1 on Whalsay. One of the polling stations on Yell serves Fetlar. Two of the Out Skerries are populated and are in the ward.

"North Isles" is not the most accurate name for the ward as half the inhabited islands (Bruray, Housay and Whalsay) are not in that group. The southern part of the ward seems to have been arbitrarily tacked on.

The largest population (2011 census) is on Whalsay (1061), followed by Yell (966), Unst (632), Fetlar (61), Housay (50) and Bruray (24). I await the anti postal vote crusaders to tell us why Bruray should have a polling station on it for an electoral turnout potentially counted on one hand.

The candidates have statements up at: www.shetnews.co.uk/category/features/by-election-2022-north-isles/

[Chris from Brum]

Aug 2, 2022 13:12:49 GMT timrollpickering said:

Aug 1, 2022 18:14:50 GMT iainbhx said:

The notice of poll tells me there are six polling stations

2 on Unst, 3 on Yell and 1 on Whalsay. One of the polling stations on Yell serves Fetlar. Two of the Out Skerries are populated and are in the ward.

"North Isles" is not the most accurate name for the ward as half the inhabited islands (Bruray, Housay and Whalsay) are not in that group. The southern part of the ward seems to have been arbitrarily tacked on.

The largest population (2011 census) is on Whalsay (1061), followed by Yell (966), Unst (632), Fetlar (61), Housay (50) and Bruray (24). I await the anti postal vote crusaders to tell us why Bruray should have a polling station on it for an electoral turnout potentially counted on one hand.

The candidates have statements up at: www.shetnews.co.uk/category/features/by-election-2022-north-isles/

There's a case, in places like Bruray, for a travelling polling place to open on the island for a specified period - say two hours - notified well in advance so that the people can arrange their business around its presence.  Said polling place could then move on to another small island when its business is done.  Look, it's not unusual for all the votes in a very small polling district to be cast within a short space of time, possibly shortly after the polls have opened.  There is no need to prolong polling hours beyond that point just because those are the hours advertised.

[matureleft]

It might seem odd that a ward that couldn’t attract the full complement of candidates a couple of months ago now has 5 candidates for the remaining spot. One explanation might be that one or more of these 5 has attracted opponents whereas the 2 elected unopposed were consensual figures or of such standing that opposition seemed pointless.

[yellowperil]

Aug 2, 2022 13:41:53 GMT matureleft said:

It might seem odd that a ward that couldn’t attract the full complement of candidates a couple of months ago now has 5 candidates for the remaining spot. One explanation might be that one or more of these 5 has attracted opponents whereas the 2 elected unopposed were consensual figures or of such standing that opposition seemed pointless.

When this sort of situation arises it's not that unusual for a number of potential candidates, who thought about it and ultimately rejected it first time round, decide on a rethink. They may not realise that other people are going through the same process. Of course, there could have been withdrawals once the entries were in, but I think people are inclined to think okay let's see what happens then. They may or maybe not make any effort to campaign. This is relatively common in all-independent contests especially at parish level.

[YL]

Aug 2, 2022 13:12:49 GMT timrollpickering said:

Aug 1, 2022 18:14:50 GMT iainbhx said:

The notice of poll tells me there are six polling stations

2 on Unst, 3 on Yell and 1 on Whalsay. One of the polling stations on Yell serves Fetlar. Two of the Out Skerries are populated and are in the ward.

"North Isles" is not the most accurate name for the ward as half the inhabited islands (Bruray, Housay and Whalsay) are not in that group. The southern part of the ward seems to have been arbitrarily tacked on.

The largest population (2011 census) is on Whalsay (1061), followed by Yell (966), Unst (632), Fetlar (61), Housay (50) and Bruray (24). I await the anti postal vote crusaders to tell us why Bruray should have a polling station on it for an electoral turnout potentially counted on one hand.

Housay and Bruray (the Out Skerries) can be considered together, as there's a bridge between them.

How would a 2 member ward for the actual North Isles (Yell, Unst and Fetlar) and a single member ward for Whalsay and the Out Skerries have worked with the electorate numbers? Based on the numbers above it'd have been a bit generous to the former.

[Tony Otim]

Aug 2, 2022 14:37:07 GMT yellowperil said:

Aug 2, 2022 13:41:53 GMT matureleft said:

It might seem odd that a ward that couldn’t attract the full complement of candidates a couple of months ago now has 5 candidates for the remaining spot. One explanation might be that one or more of these 5 has attracted opponents whereas the 2 elected unopposed were consensual figures or of such standing that opposition seemed pointless.

When this sort of situation arises it's not that unusual for a number of potential candidates, who thought about it and ultimately rejected it first time round, decide on a rethink. They may not realise that other people are going through the same process. Of course, there could have been withdrawals once the entries were in, but I think people are inclined to think okay let's see what happens then. They may or maybe not make any effort to campaign. This is relatively common in all-independent contests especially at parish level.

And 2 of the 5 actually did stand, but in other wards, in May, so obviously wanted to have another go...

[timrollpickering]

Aug 2, 2022 13:34:49 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Aug 2, 2022 13:12:49 GMT timrollpickering said:

The largest population (2011 census) is on Whalsay (1061), followed by Yell (966), Unst (632), Fetlar (61), Housay (50) and Bruray (24). I await the anti postal vote crusaders to tell us why Bruray should have a polling station on it for an electoral turnout potentially counted on one hand.

The candidates have statements up at: www.shetnews.co.uk/category/features/by-election-2022-north-isles/

There's a case, in places like Bruray, for a travelling polling place to open on the island for a specified period - say two hours - notified well in advance so that the people can arrange their business around its presence. Said polling place could then move on to another small island when its business is done. Look, it's not unusual for all the votes in a very small polling district to be cast within a short space of time, possibly shortly after the polls have opened. There is no need to prolong polling hours beyond that point just because those are the hours advertised.

So you've shifted your position on postal votes from reverting to the 20th century model to making them near impossible to obtain.

The idea that people can easily rearrange their schedules around a window of time that comes up at short notice (especially a snap election or a by-election, especially in a ward previously uncontested) may work in the Birmingham Liberal Democrats but practice elsewhere in the world suggests that mobile polling stations making brief visits only really works when people have limited mobility and/or do not have easy access to postal services. Even then many get excluded.

I repeat my comments from the thread on the Holyrood seat by-election from a few years ago:

Jun 26, 2019 19:19:29 GMT timrollpickering said:

Jun 26, 2019 18:30:03 GMT markgoodair said:

Will the Brexit Party bother to make an appearance?

If they do then I wonder what they'll say about postal votes.

Before the derestriction, one of the longest permitted reasons for having a postal vote was if a voter would otherwise need to cross water to get to a polling station. This is a situation that never appears on the standard "Only valid reasons!" list that anti-PV campaigners shout out, yet in a constituency with many inhabited islands, some quite small and not all having polling places of their own, this would have applied quite a bit before the relaxation in 2001.

As an example, a glance at a past SOPN shows that the polling station for Fetlar was in Sellafirth on Yell and this may not be the only case. If nothing else it would make for a great YouTube hit to see a visiting Brexit Party campaigner telling postal voters in Fetlar that they don't need them and they just need to get better at managing their time around the ferry timetable to nip over and vote in person. (Note the ferry goes to Gutcher, not Sellafirth which is a couple of kilometres away.)

A pity polling is tomorrow as otherwise perhaps we could have arranged for you star in such a YouTube video.

[Chris from Brum]

I don't thing I've shifted my position at all. The previous situation wasn't particularly broke and didn't need fixing, at least not in the way that it has been fixed. But if you think that all suggestions for change and improvement are to be dismissed out of hand, I'll save my breath to cool my tea.

[yellowperil]

I have spent quite a lot of time on Shetland without ever getting to any of these islands. I feel that's properly remote.

[timrollpickering]

Aug 3, 2022 13:31:12 GMT Chris from Brum said:

I don't thing I've shifted my position at all. The previous situation wasn't particularly broke and didn't need fixing, at least not in the way that it has been fixed. But if you think that all suggestions for change and improvement are to be dismissed out of hand, I'll save my breath to cool my tea.

The previous system had long included having to cross water to get to the designated polling station as a valid reason for having a postal vote (and was surely the easiest circumstance to verify from the application form alone?) so your suggestion of replacing it with a brief visit by a travelling polling station is a shift from "go back to how it was before 2001".

The previous situation was broke in that it didn't match modern conditions with commutes getting ever longer, the rise of last minute holidays, more and more jobs sending people away at short notice and so forth, all of which made the old rigid system harder to meet modern needs. There was too much reliance on satisfying a limited number of "valid reasons" and navigating the indifference of bureaucracy and little jobsworths.

[timmullen1]

Andrew’s Previews for this week: medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-luton-and-shetland-by-elections-of-4th-august-2022-c1fcffe7c7a0