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Post by relique on Jun 12, 2022 23:49:21 GMT
Final result ENS 25,75 NUPES 25,66 RN 18.68 LR 10.42 Reconquête 4.24 Nupes 26.10 % Ensemble 25.81 % Reported in Le Monde I think the difference between the two is that Le monde classified some over-seas candidates as nupes while the interior ministry didn't |
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Post by mattbewilson on Jun 12, 2022 23:51:16 GMT
Nupes 26.10 % Ensemble 25.81 % Reported in Le Monde I think the difference between the two is that Le monde classified some over-seas candidates as nupes while the interior ministry didn't ah that makes sense. I was reading the vote totals in Le Monde and Interior Ministry and getting very confused. How can less people vote and the turnout be higher! Thanks for clearing that up |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 13, 2022 5:15:16 GMT
There's a run off in 4th Seine-Saint-Denis between a NUPES PCF and an Independent PCF 'splitters'.  |
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Post by edgbaston on Jun 13, 2022 9:01:55 GMT
Does anyone know how many ENS vs NUPES, ENS vs RN and NUPES vs RN run-offs there are. I would be particularly interested in the outcome of the races in the third category.
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Post by mattbewilson on Jun 13, 2022 9:36:54 GMT
Does anyone know how many ENS vs NUPES, ENS vs RN and NUPES vs RN run-offs there are. I would be particularly interested in the outcome of the races in the third category. Le Monde report that Elizabeth Bourne cites 59 NUPES/NR duels |
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Jun 13, 2022 10:08:16 GMT
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jun 13, 2022 11:49:56 GMT
9 candidates polled 50% but didn't reach the 25% of the electorate threshold
Mathilde Panot (LFI-Nupes) 54,84 % (24,02 % of electorate) in Val-de-Marne 10
Eric Coquerel (LFI-Nupes) : 53,79 % (20,24 % of electorat) in Seine-Saint-Denis 1
Stéphane Peu (PCF-Nupes) : 62,85 % (20,1 % of electorate) dans la 2e circonscription de Seine-Saint-Denis 2
Bastien Lachaud (LFI-Nupes) : 56,61 % (22,03 % of electorate) in Seine-Saint-Denis 6
Aurélie Trouvé (LFI-Nupes) : 53,53 % (22,23 % of electorate) in Seine-Saint-Denis 9
Elsa Faucillon (PCF-Nupes) : 54,26 % (20,08 % of electorate) in Hauts-de-Seine 1
Marine Le Pen (RN) : 53,96 % (22,53 % of electorate) in Pas-de-Calais 1
Adrien Quatennens (LFI-Nupes) : 52,05 % (23,36 % of electorate) in Nord 1
Manuel Bompard (LFI-Nupes) : 56,04 % (21,36 % of electorate) in Bouches-du-Rhône 4
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Post by dizz on Jun 13, 2022 12:32:00 GMT
Does anyone know how many ENS vs NUPES, ENS vs RN and NUPES vs RN run-offs there are. I would be particularly interested in the outcome of the races in the third category. Le Monde report that Elizabeth Bourne cites 59 NUPES/NR duels One disappointment from the low turnout this year is that there will be far fewer French three ways to watch to conclusion (i.e. third candidate not getting 12.5% of registered voters so being eliminated). |
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Post by relique on Jun 13, 2022 13:25:20 GMT
Le Monde report that Elizabeth Bourne cites 59 NUPES/NR duels One disappointment from the low turnout this year is that there will be far fewer French three ways to watch to conclusion (i.e. third candidate not getting 12.5% of registered voters so being eliminated). A few more than last time. 8 three ways instead of 1. (for now... some third candidates might decide not to contest the second round) |
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john07
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Post by john07 on Jun 13, 2022 14:11:36 GMT
Have there been any projections for the likely results?
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Post by relique on Jun 13, 2022 14:20:33 GMT
Have there been any projections for the likely results?
Pollsters and political analysts are incredibly bad at that. They try, they try, but they fail again and again.
I'll work on a graduation "solid / likely / lean" in the coming days but I'm not the best.
Edit: they are mostly saying Ensemble might get an absolute majority. Or not. But NUPES can't get one.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Jun 13, 2022 14:29:46 GMT
Have there been any projections for the likely results? Pollsters and political analysts are incredibly bad at that. They try, they try, but they fail again and again.
I'll work on a graduation "solid / likely / lean" in the coming days but I'm not the best.
Thanks. I had a look at some of the results and most looked really difficult, if not impossible, to call. How will, for example, RN voters go in a Left/Macronist run-off? How many will vote at all? I will await the projections with interest. |
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Post by observer on Jun 13, 2022 14:34:06 GMT
Pollsters and political analysts are incredibly bad at that. They try, they try, but they fail again and again.
I'll work on a graduation "solid / likely / lean" in the coming days but I'm not the best.
Thanks. I had a look at some of the results and most looked really difficult, if not impossible, to call. How will, for example, RN voters go in a Left/Macronist run-off? How many will vote at all? I will await the projections with interest. I suspect a surprising number of third-placed RN supporters will back NUPES candidates just to disrupt the flabby consensus |
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Post by relique on Jun 13, 2022 14:59:20 GMT
Pollsters and political analysts are incredibly bad at that. They try, they try, but they fail again and again.
I'll work on a graduation "solid / likely / lean" in the coming days but I'm not the best.
Thanks. I had a look at some of the results and most looked really difficult, if not impossible, to call. How will, for example, RN voters go in a Left/Macronist run-off? How many will vote at all? I will await the projections with interest. Even if the media and pollsters are quite bad, I must say the situation is highly precarious.
In 2017, the macronists were completely transfer-toxic in the second round, and RN, the left (PS and PCF, not insoumis) and the right got through thanks to that and the fact the working classes didn't know the macronist (and insoumis) candidates (and it counts a lot in post-industrial and/or rural areas).
In 2022, macronists dream that it will be NUPES (thanks to the picture of Mélenchon in most NUPES leaflets) that will be transfer-toxic and that they will become transfer-friendly from the right (and maybe the far-right). The pollsters have mostly confirmed this wishful thinking in their projections. I'm really not that sure that they will be that friendly to transfer. There is still a very big anti-macron sentiment in France.
Will the RN voters cover their nose and vote NUPES against the president, or cover their nose and vote Ensemble against the leftist Mélenchon ?? That's the question that will be answered next sunday.
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Post by mattbewilson on Jun 13, 2022 15:30:03 GMT
I spoke to one Le Pen voter who plans on either voting LREM or blank. Because Melenchon and his allies have enabled mass immigration from Europe
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 13, 2022 15:50:43 GMT
Have there been any projections for the likely results? Most pollsters are projecting that Ensemble will be more transfer friendly than NUPES and are therefore on the border of a majority. A poll I saw yesterday found LR voters overwhelmingly preferring Ensemble, as do Zemmour's outfit. Conversely, National Rally voters split evenly (but I would imagine are a bit more NUPES friendly in places working class enough for the latter to qualify). God knows how NUPES voters will vote in Ensemble vs LR/NR seats. Of course turnout projections for voters who cannot choose their favourite party are inherently difficult, and Le Pen has called for abstentionism where her party is not in the 2nd round which will have an impact. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Jun 13, 2022 15:56:57 GMT
Have there been any projections for the likely results? Most pollsters are projecting that Ensemble will be more transfer friendly than NUPES and are therefore on the border of a majority. A poll I saw yesterday found LR voters overwhelmingly preferring Ensemble, as do Zemmour's outfit. Conversely, National Rally voters split evenly (but I would imagine are a bit more NUPES friendly in places working class enough for the latter to qualify). God knows how NUPES voters will vote in Ensemble vs LR/NR seats. Of course turnout projections for voters who cannot choose their favourite party are inherently difficult, and Le Pen has called for abstentionism where her party is not in the 2nd round which will have an impact. we must have seen different polls. One I saw said similar but Zemmours voters broke something like 56 44 to NUPES |
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Post by relique on Jun 13, 2022 16:07:58 GMT
Most pollsters are projecting that Ensemble will be more transfer friendly than NUPES and are therefore on the border of a majority. A poll I saw yesterday found LR voters overwhelmingly preferring Ensemble, as do Zemmour's outfit. Conversely, National Rally voters split evenly (but I would imagine are a bit more NUPES friendly in places working class enough for the latter to qualify). God knows how NUPES voters will vote in Ensemble vs LR/NR seats. Of course turnout projections for voters who cannot choose their favourite party are inherently difficult, and Le Pen has called for abstentionism where her party is not in the 2nd round which will have an impact. we must have seen different polls. One I saw said similar but Zemmours voters broke something like 56 44 to NUPES
Zemmour voters seem to me to be more likely to back Macron's candidates (for the voters who will show up, as many will probably go fishing). Relative to RN voters, it seems clear to me. Of course, I wouldn't be able to guess at what level.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jun 13, 2022 16:32:59 GMT
The turnout rule seems very odd
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Post by relique on Jun 13, 2022 16:42:55 GMT
The turnout rule seems very odd It's a way to give voters a chance to say "fuck, I don't want this guy to win, I didn't know he could" and correct in the second round by going to the polls.
It used to be a rule for by-elections mostly, as participation in the législatives used to be above 50% (and therefore getting 50% of 50% would lead to 25% of registered voters)
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