Tiverton and Honiton

[J.G.Harston]

Jun 25, 2022 18:51:21 GMT gwynthegriff said:

My "clever dick" question to would-be candidates was "Michael Crick. Important part of the electoral process or self-important prat?"

I wasn't actually interested in their view of Mr Crick. I wanted to be sure that they knew who he was, and that at some point in the coming weeks they might find themselves being pursued across Nantwich Market Square by a film crew and Mr Crick shouting "Do you agree with Chris Huhne's description of Calamity Clegg? Do you? Do you?" (or similar) and that they would not then freeze into frightened rabbit mode.

Back when I was on an candidate interviewing panel, I asked the applicants a question, then kept interupting them. I wasn't interested in their answer, I wanted to see how they coped with being heckled.

[graham]

Jun 25, 2022 19:35:01 GMT batman said:

Jun 25, 2022 13:04:33 GMT graham said:

I am sure many would have made similar comments re-Portsmouth South in 2010 - and even 2015. The LDs remain strong there in Local Elections , but I suspect they no longer have high expectations re - winning back the seat anytime soon. I am aware that proposed Boundary Changes in Wimbledon may not be helpful to Labour, but as of now it is reasonable to point out that Labour has actually won the seat twice - and performed strongly as recently as 2017.. The LDs did comfortably win in this years Merton Borough Elections but their vote share failed to quite reach what the party polled in 2019.Given that the LDs generally outperform at Local Elections relative to GEs. that result does not really justify some of the hype re- their prospects there. In 2019 Labour managed almost 24% in a poor year in which its vote is likely to have been depressed by Corbyn , the salience of Brexit and the pressure from the LDs to support them tactically.Prima facie - and given the seat's electoral history over decades - an increase in Labour's GB vote share to circa 40% from the 33% received in 2019 would make a Labour share in Wimbledon  of 30% - 35% a reasonable target.

Were I a Labour activist there I would be seriously concerned at repeating the mistakes made in Carshalton & Wallington back in the 1980s. , when what had been a Tory/Labour marginal became a Tory/Alliance battleground  - and remains so , though Tom Brake's defeat and retirement perhaps gives Labour some opportunity to regain lost ground.. From a Labour perspective I would rather see a decent Tory  - such as Stephen Hammond - hang on to the seat than face being electorally eclipsed there by the LDs for a generation or more. It really is a seat where I would still be pushing the 'Tories Little Helpers' line  very hard.

yes Labour managed 24% in 2019, but that was starting from second place. 

I don't normally go for this "I know better than you" stuff, but on this occasion I will have to do so. I have canvassed a lot in Wimbledon as I have a very good friend (a Momentumite basically) who was an office-holder in the CLP, but then was persuaded to seek selection in a safe Labour ward in normally Blairite-dominated Mitcham & Morden, got selected, and won (so did former CWU general secretary Billy Hayes). Just, please, take it from me; Labour will not be targeting Wimbledon for the foreseeable, especially after the boundary changes which would further weaken Labour's position in the constituency. We are keener in maintaining our neighbouring marginals, and having a pop at more winnable territory. I do actually know what's going on there, and am told regularly by my friend even when I'm not there. Your theories are fine as theories, but they don't reflect what actually is happening in the constituency.

I confess to not knowing the details of proposed boundary changes in Wimbledon. However, I understand that Labour polled circa 21% in the recent Local Elections - compared with circa 36% for the LDs and 10%? for the Greens. That is a substantial margin - but not exactly an overwhelming  performance by the LDs given the resources doubtless applied to it. Allowance also needs to be made for the clear evidence that people vote differently at GEs compared with Local Elections. The LDs in particular are noted for their outperformance at the latter - and there many examples of such success not transferring to a parliamentary elrction - Liverpool in the 'Jones the Vote' era in the early 1970s comes to mind - as does Watford more recently.

Where are the'neighbouring marginals' in that part of London? Seats which were held in the conditions of 2019 should srely now be pretty secure. Mitcham & Mordern has long ceased to fall into that catergory since Angela Rumbold was ousted in 1997.Why not use the resources of that CLP to 'carpet bomb' Wimbledon - and Carshalton & Wallingford?. I assume that the North London marginals are too distant - but not so sure re- Uxbridge & Ruislip South. Beyond that I would rather see the Tories retain Wimbledon next time rather than allow the LDs to eclipse Labour there for a generation as happened in Carshalton.LD support also tends to be fairly soft - 'easy come - easy go.'

I have also been chatting to a lady on another forum who lives in the seat - and who tends to share my view.She suggests that the Labour vote will prove to be quite 'sticky' and finds it difficult to see people who voted Labour in the difficult circumstances of 2019 not doing so again. Labour also dropped back to third place in the 1980s but still managed to win in 1997.

[tonyhill]

If the Tories had 3 or 4 female councillors to choose from in T & H the chance that any of them would have the potential to be a successful by-election candidate would be pretty small. Parliamentary by-elections are brutal affairs.

[robert1]

Jun 24, 2022 8:48:42 GMT cherrycoffin said:

Jun 24, 2022 7:10:32 GMT robert1 said:

Biggest swing against a Government ever remains Christchurch. I wonder who was the candidate?

I retain the record!

I grew up in Christchurch but wasn’t alive at the time of the by-election and I’ve always struggled to understand how it went so strongly towards the Lib Dems. Was it a combination of the Tory government being so incredibly unpopular, local factors, a good Lib Dem candidate or something else? My grandparents never gave me particularly satisfactory answers beyond “she was a wonderful lady”.

And also, on a personal note and if you don’t mind sharing, how does one deal with losing so resoundingly when defending a seat, even if a defeat was semi-expected?

Sorry. Only just seen this question.

Tony is correct. Parliamentary by-elections for the defending party/candidate are unbelievably brutal affairs. No-one who has not been through one can imagine the experience. The pressures are unimaginable.

I was lucky. I had fought three marginal campaigns previously (four in total) and won 2 of them. Even that level of experience did not prepare me for what I went through. (I might do a piece one day). Every level of the Party wants to input.  Many good candidates have had their political careers destroyed by the campaign. The pressures start at the PM and run downwards at every level-Ministers, party HQ, agents, candidates, associations etc.

Even with all my experience I could not stop things which I knew were wrong. An inexperienced candidate with all the ability in the world has no chance. 

How did I survive-heaven only knows. Arrogance? Experience? Luck? In the days afterwards it was either my or CCHQ's fault. In truth it was neither but both and a lot of others to boot. We were going to lose big time anyway and everyone else (as with people on here) knows how it should have been done better.

Jo-Anne Nadler wrote a book 'Too nice to be a Tory', a chapter of which (By-elections, bifocals, bisesxuals) is about her experience as my press officer in Christchurch. That gives just a small but very good glimpse into the world of defending a seat in such circumstances. Well worth a read.

[matureleft]

Jun 26, 2022 5:39:11 GMT tonyhill said:

If the Tories had 3 or 4 female councillors to choose from in T & H the chance that any of them would have the potential to be a successful by-election candidate would be pretty small. Parliamentary by-elections are brutal affairs.

And that explains both why candidate selection is taken seriously and “undemocratically” (and has been since the 1980s or so) and why it still often doesn’t “work” and prompts complaints. It really isn’t much like fighting exactly the same place in a General Election. Perfectly good GE candidates (and perhaps decent MPs) can be inappropriate for a by-election vacancy. 

[John Chanin]

Jun 25, 2022 19:01:56 GMT jamie said:

Jun 25, 2022 12:30:19 GMT andrewp said:

Brenda Iles, 80, retired pub landlady, a lifelong Labour supporter who had voted Conservative for the first time because she likes Boris and doesn’t like Keir

These people do genuinely exist, but I’m always sceptical of people who claim to be lifelong supporters of a party including when they were hideously unpopular at the last election, but have switched to the now hideously unpopular governing party. 

Some people are just naturally contrarian.

[batman]

No they aren't.

[Merseymike]

Jun 26, 2022 7:04:23 GMT robert1 said:

Jun 24, 2022 8:48:42 GMT cherrycoffin said:

I grew up in Christchurch but wasn’t alive at the time of the by-election and I’ve always struggled to understand how it went so strongly towards the Lib Dems. Was it a combination of the Tory government being so incredibly unpopular, local factors, a good Lib Dem candidate or something else? My grandparents never gave me particularly satisfactory answers beyond “she was a wonderful lady”.

And also, on a personal note and if you don’t mind sharing, how does one deal with losing so resoundingly when defending a seat, even if a defeat was semi-expected?

Sorry. Only just seen this question.

Tony is correct. Parliamentary by-elections for the defending party/candidate are unbelievably brutal affairs. No-one who has not been through the experience can imagine the experience. There are massive pressures.

I was lucky. I had fought three marginal campaigns previously (four in total) and won 2 of them. Even that level of experience did not prepare me for what I went through. (I might do a piece one day). Every level of the Party wants to input.  Many good candidates have had their political careers destroyed by the campaign. The pressures start at the PM and run downwards at every level-Ministers, party HQ, agents, candidates, associations etc.

Even with all my experience I could not stop things which I knew were wrong. An inexperienced candidate with all the ability in the world has no chance. 

How did I survive-heaven only knows. Arrogance? Experience? Luck? In the days afterwards it was either my or CCHQ's fault. In truth it was neither but both and a lot of others to boot. We were going to lose big time anyway and everyone else (as with people on here) knows how it should have been done better.

Jo-Anne Nadler wrote a book 'Too nice to be a Tory', a chapter of which (By-elections, bifocals, bisesxuals) is about her experience as my press officer in Christchurch. That gives just a small but very good glimpse into the world of defending a seat in such circumstances. Well worth a read.

I have never voted Tory and its unlikely I ever will.
However, given the Tory who succeeded you as candidate and won the seat back is one of the few MP's to have ever enforced actual harm as an individual by his parliamentary grandstanding, it may have been better had you won.
I don't expect you to answer this

[yellowperil]

Jun 26, 2022 7:30:29 GMT John Chanin said:

Jun 25, 2022 19:01:56 GMT jamie said:

These people do genuinely exist, but I’m always sceptical of people who claim to be lifelong supporters of a party including when they were hideously unpopular at the last election, but have switched to the now hideously unpopular governing party. 

Some people are just naturally contrarian.

Unlike all the wonderful people on this forum, of course.

[robert1]

Jun 26, 2022 7:04:23 GMT robert1 said:

Jun 24, 2022 8:48:42 GMT cherrycoffin said:

I grew up in Christchurch but wasn’t alive at the time of the by-election and I’ve always struggled to understand how it went so strongly towards the Lib Dems. Was it a combination of the Tory government being so incredibly unpopular, local factors, a good Lib Dem candidate or something else? My grandparents never gave me particularly satisfactory answers beyond “she was a wonderful lady”.

And also, on a personal note and if you don’t mind sharing, how does one deal with losing so resoundingly when defending a seat, even if a defeat was semi-expected

Thank you for subtley emphasising how old I have now become! It is not your parents you are asking but your grandparents!

[batman]

Robert, getting old may not be great, but it's generally better than the alternative.

[East Anglian Lefty]

I think there is a difference between being a bad by-election candidate because you do the wrong things and being a bad by-election candidate because you don't have the power to do anything. Could Helen Hurford realistically have been a good candidate, and if so would she have got to the end of the day without being disowned by the Conservative Party?

[jamesdoyle]

I ran the by-election results through the GWBWI spreadsheet

Tiverton & Honiton:
Con -107
Lab -16
LDm +88
Grn -1

Wakefield
Con -55
Lab +48
LDm -2
Grn 0

Obviously, if these were council seats, T&H would count as a very bad loss for the Cons, Wakefield as poor but not terrible. I do think these figures don't reflect the difference in magnitude between council seats and parliamentary ones. So, for a bit of fun:

There are 650 seats at Westminster, and the UK has 19,924 council seats (thanks, greatkingrat !). So each Westminster seat is equivalent to 30.65 council seats. Multiplying the GWBWI scores by 30.65:

Tiverton & Honiton:
Con -3271
Lab -487
LDm +2707
Grn -41

Wakefield
Con -1700
Lab +1468
LDm -64
Grn +12

Total
Con -4971
Lab +981
LDm +2638
Grn -29

[finsobruce]

Jun 26, 2022 7:30:29 GMT John Chanin said:

Jun 25, 2022 19:01:56 GMT jamie said:

These people do genuinely exist, but I’m always sceptical of people who claim to be lifelong supporters of a party including when they were hideously unpopular at the last election, but have switched to the now hideously unpopular governing party. 

Some people are just naturally contrarian.

No, they aren't.

Yes, they are.

[nodealbrexiteer]

Jun 26, 2022 10:39:30 GMT finsobruce said:

Jun 26, 2022 7:30:29 GMT John Chanin said:

Some people are just naturally contrarian.

No, they aren't.

BOOM! 

[The Bishop]

Jun 26, 2022 7:30:29 GMT John Chanin said:

Jun 25, 2022 19:01:56 GMT jamie said:

These people do genuinely exist, but I’m always sceptical of people who claim to be lifelong supporters of a party including when they were hideously unpopular at the last election, but have switched to the now hideously unpopular governing party. 

Some people are just naturally contrarian.

Well we know there are a few "lifelong Labour voters" who fell for Johnson's supposed charms, even if their numbers have often been vastly exaggerated by the media. That still doesn't explain why the quoted person wouldn't have voted Tory at the last GE though.

[Deleted]

Jun 26, 2022 10:45:26 GMT The Bishop said:

Jun 26, 2022 7:30:29 GMT John Chanin said:

Some people are just naturally contrarian.

Well we know there are a few "lifelong Labour voters" who fell for Johnson's supposed charms, even if their numbers have often been vastly exaggerated by the media. That still doesn't explain why the quoted person wouldn't have voted Tory at the last GE though.

Given the actual wording it's entirely possible she didn't vote in 2019 and this was her first Conservative vote

[finsobruce]

Jun 25, 2022 21:42:30 GMT @boogieeck said:

A former colleague recently contacted me to tell me he had plagiarised a question of mine for an interview for a senior officer post.

"when and how have you successfully opposed change"

He he.

[gwynthegriff]

Jun 26, 2022 10:57:46 GMT finsobruce said:

Jun 25, 2022 21:42:30 GMT @boogieeck said:

A former colleague recently contacted me to tell me he had plagiarised a question of mine for an interview for a senior officer post.

"when and how have you successfully opposed change"

He he.

The last time I interviewed for a Chief Exec I asked "What would you say are the three most significant days of the year in Crewe & Nantwich? And to give you time to mull that over, what are the three most significant in XXXX (i.e. where they were currently)?".

Two purposes. Had they done any real research on C&N? And were they part of the community where they worked?

The guy from Plymouth who said "Carnival Day, the Dockyard Family Open Day, and . . . er, the day Argyle avoid relegation" got a plus mark (but didn't get the job).

The guy who said "Well, clearly, election day, the mayor-making and . . . er, the day of the Rate Support Grant Announcement" got a minus mark.

[neilm]

Jun 25, 2022 21:42:30 GMT @boogieeck said:

A former colleague recently contacted me to tell me he had plagiarised a question of mine for an interview for a senior officer post.

"when and how have you successfully opposed change"

My favourite recent one was 'what would you tax that isn't currently taxed?' I responded with 'nothing', and I've never seen a public sector interview panel so quiet. They did then ask how I'd reform the public finances, which I suspect they hadn't intended to ask but for which I had a fully prepared answer. I got the job.

There is a lot of pressure to accept that change is always desirable and should always be rapid ('we are a fast paced, evolving environment' blah blah), just like there is a pervasive belief that tax is desirable and that change should be implemented as quickly as possible. Neither is the case.