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Post by owainsutton on Jun 25, 2022 17:41:37 GMT
All of which are seats where Labour are not competitive. I would be surprised if Merseyside were a haven of Labour members who get on well with Lib Dems! Manchester Labour hate them far more than they hate Tories. |
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Post by sirnorfolkpassmore on Jun 25, 2022 17:50:57 GMT
Would Hurford be the worst Tory by-election candidate? Or Maria Hutchings? Honestly, I think Helen Hurford was quite a long way from being the worst Tory by-election candidate. In fairness, it's a really hard job. You're normally politically relatively inexperienced (on the national stage). You're thrown into a media circus. You can't say "everyone is saying Johnson is a prick and I kind of agree." Instead, you have no real choice but to mount a defence which isn't terribly credible, whilst nodding to local concerns. You look weak, you look foolish. Was she up to the task? No, clearly she wasn't. She wasn't ready for it, tended to foot-in-mouth, and had to be hidden away to the derision of many. But she was local which meant she wasn't as vulnerable to the carpetbagger approach as the Shropshire candidate (who had a good CV and presented well... but also undeniably was parachuted in and it was a huge weakness). And she wasn't the guy in Chesham, who came across as a charmless, rather unpleasant oaf. A lot of failed Tory by-election candidates can be described as "hapless" and she is merely one of several. Going back further, and for other reasons, Gerry Malone was a terrible Tory by-election candidate. He inflicted the by-election on himself, utterly humiliating himself and his party without any serious prospect of benefit. And he was an experienced politician who should have known better, rather than a beauty salon owner who wasn't really up to the job but probably isn't a bad person. |
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Post by matureleft on Jun 25, 2022 17:59:34 GMT
I would be surprised if Merseyside were a haven of Labour members who get on well with Lib Dems! Manchester Labour hate them far more than they hate Tories. Well in the city itself that probably doesn't matter in parliamentary terms. If we are talking the wider area some understanding in Hazel Grove and Cheadle would be useful. But Labour's vote in both was squeezed firmly in 2019 and is pretty low in historical terms without that. |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 25, 2022 18:07:21 GMT
Manchester Labour hate them far more than they hate Tories. Well in the city itself that probably doesn't matter in parliamentary terms. If we are talking the wider area some understanding in Hazel Grove and Cheadle would be useful. But Labour's vote in both was squeezed firmly in 2019 and is pretty low in historical terms without that. Very much the same on Merseyside. The LibDems aren't in contention anywhere, and I would include Southport where Labour are now in a clear second. |
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Post by sirnorfolkpassmore on Jun 25, 2022 18:09:14 GMT
I would say Chesham then Tiverton then Shropshire. Chesham is the only one I could envision them realistically holding. If Helen Morgan doesn't hold on to North Shropshire it won't be for want of effort. She seems to be everywhere, and is making damned sure that the public have a chance to notice it. She strikes me as the type to give it a bloody good go. And she might just pull it off in the right circumstances - she's energetic, there aren't a lot of Lib Dem targets very nearby, and quite a few Lib Dem MPs historically are local champions with a big personal vote in unpromising territory. I'm not saying she starts as favourite - she doesn't. But give it everything in a bad election for the Tories with a poorly organised opposition and it's realistic even if not probable. We don't yet know how Richard Foord will measure up as a "local champion" MP. He benefits from being in an area which hasn't been good for the Lib Dems recently, but has historically - quite a lot of his voters have voted Lib Dem on occasion prior to this week, so it's less of a "once and once only" thing and that helps a bit. The big issue for him is boundary changes if they stay the same or similar - the proposals rip his constituency apart and, whichever part he goes with, he has a LOT of new voters. The boundary changes in North Shropshire are much more modest and, I understand, broadly helpful. So I'd say Chesham, Shropshire, Tiverton and that all will be difficult but none impossible. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 25, 2022 18:10:33 GMT
Manchester Labour hate them far more than they hate Tories. Well in the city itself that probably doesn't matter in parliamentary terms. If we are talking the wider area some understanding in Hazel Grove and Cheadle would be useful. But Labour's vote in both was squeezed firmly in 2019 and is pretty low in historical terms without that. In the NW Southport has a recent LD history yet Labour has been the main challenger at the 2017 and 2019 elections.It appears to be more of a Portsmouth South pattern with the LDs now a distant third - but were I a LD activist there I would not be inclined to give up on the seat. |
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Post by stodge on Jun 25, 2022 18:21:13 GMT
Would Hurford be the worst Tory by-election candidate? Or Maria Hutchings? Honestly, I think Helen Hurford was quite a long way from being the worst Tory by-election candidate. In fairness, it's a really hard job. You're normally politically relatively inexperienced (on the national stage). You're thrown into a media circus. You can't say "everyone is saying Johnson is a prick and I kind of agree." Instead, you have no real choice but to mount a defence which isn't terribly credible, whilst nodding to local concerns. You look weak, you look foolish. Was she up to the task? No, clearly she wasn't. She wasn't ready for it, tended to foot-in-mouth, and had to be hidden away to the derision of many. But she was local which meant she wasn't as vulnerable to the carpetbagger approach as the Shropshire candidate (who had a good CV and presented well... but also undeniably was parachuted in and it was a huge weakness). And she wasn't the guy in Chesham, who came across as a charmless, rather unpleasant oaf. A lot of failed Tory by-election candidates can be described as "hapless" and she is merely one of several. Going back further, and for other reasons, Gerry Malone was a terrible Tory by-election candidate. He inflicted the by-election on himself, utterly humiliating himself and his party without any serious prospect of benefit. And he was an experienced politician who should have known better, rather than a beauty salon owner who wasn't really up to the job but probably isn't a bad person. The thing is, the Conservatives weren't short of local political presence - they have plenty of Councillors in the constituency. Were any of them approached or asked or did CCHQ take over from minute one and decide that the candidate must be female as the LDs had won with women in Chesham and North Shropshire? Indeed, the party has at least three female District Councillors in the constituency - presumably they were asked or considered or was the whole selection process simply run by CCHQ? For a party which preaches on about democracy, none of this seems very democratic. |
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Post by owainsutton on Jun 25, 2022 18:38:07 GMT
Manchester Labour hate them far more than they hate Tories. Well in the city itself that probably doesn't matter in parliamentary terms. If we are talking the wider area some understanding in Hazel Grove and Cheadle would be useful. But Labour's vote in both was squeezed firmly in 2019 and is pretty low in historical terms without that. It's a MCC-specific thing. They'll focus more on keeping Lib Dems out than anything else. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jun 25, 2022 18:41:48 GMT
Honestly, I think Helen Hurford was quite a long way from being the worst Tory by-election candidate. In fairness, it's a really hard job. You're normally politically relatively inexperienced (on the national stage). You're thrown into a media circus. You can't say "everyone is saying Johnson is a prick and I kind of agree." Instead, you have no real choice but to mount a defence which isn't terribly credible, whilst nodding to local concerns. You look weak, you look foolish. Was she up to the task? No, clearly she wasn't. She wasn't ready for it, tended to foot-in-mouth, and had to be hidden away to the derision of many. But she was local which meant she wasn't as vulnerable to the carpetbagger approach as the Shropshire candidate (who had a good CV and presented well... but also undeniably was parachuted in and it was a huge weakness). And she wasn't the guy in Chesham, who came across as a charmless, rather unpleasant oaf. A lot of failed Tory by-election candidates can be described as "hapless" and she is merely one of several. Going back further, and for other reasons, Gerry Malone was a terrible Tory by-election candidate. He inflicted the by-election on himself, utterly humiliating himself and his party without any serious prospect of benefit. And he was an experienced politician who should have known better, rather than a beauty salon owner who wasn't really up to the job but probably isn't a bad person. The thing is, the Conservatives weren't short of local political presence - they have plenty of Councillors in the constituency. Were any of them approached or asked or did CCHQ take over from minute one and decide that the candidate must be female as the LDs had won with women in Chesham and North Shropshire? Indeed, the party has at least three female District Councillors in the constituency - presumably they were asked or considered or was the whole selection process simply run by CCHQ? For a party which preaches on about democracy, none of this seems very democratic. I think in many rural or semi rural areas the Tories have a real issue with not having many young and ambitious local councillors. I don’t think they have the same problem in the more urban areas where there are winnable parliamentary seats for them. I think it’s a slight problem for other parties too, but not to the same extent. I think in my constituency in Taunton there is probably only one Tory councillor under 60 now. But then I think the number of Lib Dem councillors who are youngish , able and I can imagine wanting to run for parliament is about 3 or 4 at the most. |
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Post by owainsutton on Jun 25, 2022 18:44:36 GMT
The thing is, the Conservatives weren't short of local political presence - they have plenty of Councillors in the constituency. Were any of them approached or asked or did CCHQ take over from minute one and decide that the candidate must be female as the LDs had won with women in Chesham and North Shropshire? Indeed, the party has at least three female District Councillors in the constituency - presumably they were asked or considered or was the whole selection process simply run by CCHQ? For a party which preaches on about democracy, none of this seems very democratic. I think in many rural or semi rural areas the Tories have a real issue with not having many young and ambitious local councillors. You can delete "rural or semi rural". |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 25, 2022 18:51:21 GMT
Would Hurford be the worst Tory by-election candidate? Or Maria Hutchings? Honestly, I think Helen Hurford was quite a long way from being the worst Tory by-election candidate. In fairness, it's a really hard job. You're normally politically relatively inexperienced (on the national stage). You're thrown into a media circus. You can't say "everyone is saying Johnson is a prick and I kind of agree." Instead, you have no real choice but to mount a defence which isn't terribly credible, whilst nodding to local concerns. You look weak, you look foolish. Was she up to the task? No, clearly she wasn't. She wasn't ready for it, tended to foot-in-mouth, and had to be hidden away to the derision of many. But she was local which meant she wasn't as vulnerable to the carpetbagger approach as the Shropshire candidate (who had a good CV and presented well... but also undeniably was parachuted in and it was a huge weakness). And she wasn't the guy in Chesham, who came across as a charmless, rather unpleasant oaf. A lot of failed Tory by-election candidates can be described as "hapless" and she is merely one of several. Going back further, and for other reasons, Gerry Malone was a terrible Tory by-election candidate. He inflicted the by-election on himself, utterly humiliating himself and his party without any serious prospect of benefit. And he was an experienced politician who should have known better, rather than a beauty salon owner who wasn't really up to the job but probably isn't a bad person. When I was involved in a by-election in 2008 the Lib Dem process was straightforward: 1. Anyone on the approved list could apply (including any in situ PPC); 2. The local party drew up a long list (I think ours was 5 or 6); 3. They were interviewed by HQ who then gave us a shortlist having weeded out anyone they felt not up to the task; 4. A local selection meeting then selected the candidate. My "clever dick" question to would-be candidates was "Michael Crick. Important part of the electoral process or self-important prat?"I wasn't actually interested in their view of Mr Crick. I wanted to be sure that they knew who he was, and that at some point in the coming weeks they might find themselves being pursued across Nantwich Market Square by a film crew and Mr Crick shouting "Do you agree with Chris Huhne's description of Calamity Clegg? Do you? Do you?" (or similar) and that they would not then freeze into frightened rabbit mode. |
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Post by jamie on Jun 25, 2022 19:01:56 GMT
Brenda Iles, 80, retired pub landlady, a lifelong Labour supporter who had voted Conservative for the first time because she likes Boris and doesn’t like Keir These people do genuinely exist, but I’m always sceptical of people who claim to be lifelong supporters of a party including when they were hideously unpopular at the last election, but have switched to the now hideously unpopular governing party. |
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Post by andrewp on Jun 25, 2022 19:11:04 GMT
Brenda Iles, 80, retired pub landlady, a lifelong Labour supporter who had voted Conservative for the first time because she likes Boris and doesn’t like Keir These people do genuinely exist, but I’m always sceptical of people who claim to be lifelong supporters of a party including when they were hideously unpopular at the last election, but have switched to the now hideously unpopular governing party. I’m sceptical too. But some people have thought processes that are difficult to comprehend however you try. The ‘I want Brexit, but the Tories have made a mess of it so I’ve switched to the Lib Dems’ is a tricky explain too. |
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Post by aargauer on Jun 25, 2022 19:17:13 GMT
These people do genuinely exist, but I’m always sceptical of people who claim to be lifelong supporters of a party including when they were hideously unpopular at the last election, but have switched to the now hideously unpopular governing party. I’m sceptical too. But some people have thought processes that are difficult to comprehend however you try. The ‘I want Brexit, but the Tories have made a mess of it so I’ve switched to the Lib Dems’ is a tricky explain too. Not really. They are just voting to kick the government. They aren't voting for the Lib Dem manifesto, as they are safe in the knowledge that won't be carried out. |
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Post by matureleft on Jun 25, 2022 19:29:22 GMT
Rule 1. "Lifelong" supporters often are not as anyone who has canvassed using historical data will vouch!
Rule 2. Logic departs in many voting decisions. Most people think about politics occasionally, using partial sources, with a pretty entrenched scepticism. Many decisions are gut-based and taken in haste. They sound fairly silly to people who think politics all the time and know a lot about the parties. But they are real and perfectly valid in any normal democracy.
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Post by batman on Jun 25, 2022 19:35:01 GMT
if you'd actually campaigned for Labour in the last few years in Wimbledon, as I have, you wouldn't say all that. There is literally no belief in Wimbledon CLP that the Lib Dems' momentum can be arrested in the foreseeable future. I am sure many would have made similar comments re-Portsmouth South in 2010 - and even 2015. The LDs remain strong there in Local Elections , but I suspect they no longer have high expectations re - winning back the seat anytime soon. I am aware that proposed Boundary Changes in Wimbledon may not be helpful to Labour, but as of now it is reasonable to point out that Labour has actually won the seat twice - and performed strongly as recently as 2017.. The LDs did comfortably win in this years Merton Borough Elections but their vote share failed to quite reach what the party polled in 2019.Given that the LDs generally outperform at Local Elections relative to GEs. that result does not really justify some of the hype re- their prospects there. In 2019 Labour managed almost 24% in a poor year in which its vote is likely to have been depressed by Corbyn , the salience of Brexit and the pressure from the LDs to support them tactically.Prima facie - and given the seat's electoral history over decades - an increase in Labour's GB vote share to circa 40% from the 33% received in 2019 would make a Labour share in Wimbledon of 30% - 35% a reasonable target. Were I a Labour activist there I would be seriously concerned at repeating the mistakes made in Carshalton & Wallington back in the 1980s. , when what had been a Tory/Labour marginal became a Tory/Alliance battleground - and remains so , though Tom Brake's defeat and retirement perhaps gives Labour some opportunity to regain lost ground.. From a Labour perspective I would rather see a decent Tory - such as Stephen Hammond - hang on to the seat than face being electorally eclipsed there by the LDs for a generation or more. It really is a seat where I would still be pushing the 'Tories Little Helpers' line very hard.
yes Labour managed 24% in 2019, but that was starting from second place. I don't normally go for this "I know better than you" stuff, but on this occasion I will have to do so. I have canvassed a lot in Wimbledon as I have a very good friend (a Momentumite basically) who was an office-holder in the CLP, but then was persuaded to seek selection in a safe Labour ward in normally Blairite-dominated Mitcham & Morden, got selected, and won (so did former CWU general secretary Billy Hayes). Just, please, take it from me; Labour will not be targeting Wimbledon for the foreseeable, especially after the boundary changes which would further weaken Labour's position in the constituency. We are keener in maintaining our neighbouring marginals, and having a pop at more winnable territory. I do actually know what's going on there, and am told regularly by my friend even when I'm not there. Your theories are fine as theories, but they don't reflect what actually is happening in the constituency. |
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Post by batman on Jun 25, 2022 19:35:54 GMT
All of which are seats where Labour are not competitive. and never have been, except for Winchester long, long ago. |
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Post by batman on Jun 25, 2022 19:38:24 GMT
Brenda Iles, 80, retired pub landlady, a lifelong Labour supporter who had voted Conservative for the first time because she likes Boris and doesn’t like Keir These people do genuinely exist, but I’m always sceptical of people who claim to be lifelong supporters of a party including when they were hideously unpopular at the last election, but have switched to the now hideously unpopular governing party. I remember once being in the White Horse, Richmond, with the late Walter Wolfgang. We were listening to a conversation in which someone described himself as a traditional Labour supporter who had stopped voting for the party. We then worked out, after something else the man said, that he hadn't in fact voted Labour since 1945. |
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Jun 25, 2022 19:46:06 GMT
All of which are seats where Labour are not competitive. and never have been, except for Winchester long, long ago. And that was very much the same seat in name only, including Eastleigh which was very much the core of the Labour vote back then and even part of what is now Southampton. |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 25, 2022 19:49:02 GMT
Well in the city itself that probably doesn't matter in parliamentary terms. If we are talking the wider area some understanding in Hazel Grove and Cheadle would be useful. But Labour's vote in both was squeezed firmly in 2019 and is pretty low in historical terms without that. In the NW Southport has a recent LD history yet Labour has been the main challenger at the 2017 and 2019 elections.It appears to be more of a Portsmouth South pattern with the LDs now a distant third - but were I a LD activist there I would not be inclined to give up on the seat. It's unlikely to be the regional target it used to be, though. All the seats Labour have gained locally have been from the LD's. There are still areas of local LD strength but it's unlikely that they could benefit from tactical voting any longer given that Labour are a clear second now. Many Labour-inclined voters were quite happy to vote for Ronnie Fearn when he was the MP. Also they now have a reasonable local Labour party which wasn't the case a few years back. |
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