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Post by Merseymike on Jun 25, 2022 9:58:47 GMT
And in many of those seats the LD's may be in third place. Take the neighbouring seats of Windsor and Maidenhead. Currently Labour are placed second in both. But does anyone doubt that only the LibDems could ever come close to beating the Tories - and have done before in Maidenhead. Lib Dems are second in both Windsor and Maidenhead You are right - I must have been thinking of 2015 and 2017. The point still stands, though. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 25, 2022 10:22:12 GMT
I believe there are also two MPs elected as Tories who no longer receive the party whip. Theoretically - were they to be assigned to the Opposition - that lowers the majority to 68! that only becomes remotely meaningful if the MPs concerned actually voted with the Opposition. The only yardstick which makes any political sense is the extent to which the government can win votes in the Commons, whether certain Tory MPs currently have the Whip or not is not relevant otherwise. well tbf the post being critiqued does say "theoretically". |
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Post by stodge on Jun 25, 2022 10:57:39 GMT
Just an observation - what is it about the Conservative Party and its by-election candidates?
Looking at the farcical scenes of the poor candidate looking like a frightened rabbit at the count, the Agent seemed to be the all-powerful force aided by some (presumably) CCHQ-based youngsters (call them the Praetorian Guard if you wish, waste of space might be more appropriate).
Helen Hurford looked photogenic enough but seemed unable to form a coherent sentence without the Agent.
It might have made no difference but had the Conservative Party candidate been able to use her own voice and offer something like "I understand people's anger and frustration but you are more likely to get help with an MP able to have the ear of Government than a backbench opposition MP who will likely be ignored" - or words to that effect, it might have marked her as a having a distinctive voice.
The cynic in me wonders if she has been "promised" another go at the next GE (which she'll likely win even if the Conservatives are defeated nationally) which will then be a job for life. A little humiliation now for a safe seat for decades into the future.
Either way, the Conservatives seem so desperate to pick a candidate they can "manage" they end up losing the seat with a candidate who gets ridiculed for not having any clear voice or opinion beyond meaningless slavish platitudes.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jun 25, 2022 11:11:37 GMT
Of the 3 Lib Dem by election gains, what is the order from most likely to least likely for the party to be able to hold at a General election? Or are they all about the same?
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jun 25, 2022 11:22:31 GMT
Just an observation - what is it about the Conservative Party and its by-election candidates? Looking at the farcical scenes of the poor candidate looking like a frightened rabbit at the count, the Agent seemed to be the all-powerful force aided by some (presumably) CCHQ-based youngsters (call them the Praetorian Guard if you wish, waste of space might be more appropriate). Helen Hurford looked photogenic enough but seemed unable to form a coherent sentence without the Agent. It might have made no difference but had the Conservative Party candidate been able to use her own voice and offer something like "I understand people's anger and frustration but you are more likely to get help with an MP able to have the ear of Government than a backbench opposition MP who will likely be ignored" - or words to that effect, it might have marked her as a having a distinctive voice. The cynic in me wonders if she has been "promised" another go at the next GE (which she'll likely win even if the Conservatives are defeated nationally) which will then be a job for life. A little humiliation now for a safe seat for decades into the future. Either way, the Conservatives seem so desperate to pick a candidate they can "manage" they end up losing the seat with a candidate who gets ridiculed for not having any clear voice or opinion beyond meaningless slavish platitudes. In the current circumstances, for any Conservative candidate, getting a balance on whether you support the PM is fraught with danger, ( and maybe impossible) in a similar way that Labour candidates had similar issues under Corbyn. A yes I fully support everything he does response will a) alienate some voters, b) leave you looking like a puppet and c) is fairly difficult for anybody to seriously say anyway. Anything less than that, even cautious support will a) get the headline - candidate doesn’t support PM and b) will alienate the Boris fans, of which there is still a hardcore base amongst Tory voters. I suspect you may be right-there may well be a promise either formally or informally, go through this and you’ll win the seat next time, and in all likelihood get 25 years as an MP if you want it. |
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Post by ClevelandYorks on Jun 25, 2022 11:41:51 GMT
Of the 3 Lib Dem by election gains, what is the order from most likely to least likely for the party to be able to hold at a General election? Or are they all about the same? I would say Chesham then Tiverton then Shropshire. Chesham is the only one I could envision them realistically holding. |
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 25, 2022 11:50:34 GMT
Just an observation - what is it about the Conservative Party and its by-election candidates? Either way, the Conservatives seem so desperate to pick a candidate they can "manage" they end up losing the seat with a candidate who gets ridiculed for not having any clear voice or opinion beyond meaningless slavish platitudes. The Labour Party isn’t any different. Both parties have decided that for by-election circuses they need someone as colourless, manipulable, and opinionless as possible, and that it is essential even so to keep them as far as possible away from not just journalists, but also voters. Like so much of modern politics, this all contributes to the general dissatisfaction and alienation of the public. |
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jun 25, 2022 11:51:05 GMT
Just an observation - what is it about the Conservative Party and its by-election candidates? Looking at the farcical scenes of the poor candidate looking like a frightened rabbit at the count, the Agent seemed to be the all-powerful force aided by some (presumably) CCHQ-based youngsters (call them the Praetorian Guard if you wish, waste of space might be more appropriate). Helen Hurford looked photogenic enough but seemed unable to form a coherent sentence without the Agent. It might have made no difference but had the Conservative Party candidate been able to use her own voice and offer something like "I understand people's anger and frustration but you are more likely to get help with an MP able to have the ear of Government than a backbench opposition MP who will likely be ignored" - or words to that effect, it might have marked her as a having a distinctive voice. The cynic in me wonders if she has been "promised" another go at the next GE (which she'll likely win even if the Conservatives are defeated nationally) which will then be a job for life. A little humiliation now for a safe seat for decades into the future. Either way, the Conservatives seem so desperate to pick a candidate they can "manage" they end up losing the seat with a candidate who gets ridiculed for not having any clear voice or opinion beyond meaningless slavish platitudes. I agree. Being the Tory candidate for either of these two by-elections was a thankless task for all kinds of reasons. Not something you’d enter into lightly, I wouldn’t think. |
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jun 25, 2022 11:56:22 GMT
Would Hurford be the worst Tory by-election candidate?
Or Maria Hutchings?
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 25, 2022 12:02:26 GMT
Would Hurford be the worst Tory by-election candidate? Or Maria Hutchings? I got the impression that she was selected, then they realised that she wasn't very keen on Johnson, so decided to keep her out of the way. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jun 25, 2022 12:30:19 GMT
The Times today has managed some to find some people in Tiverton with interesting takes
Diana Margetson 62, a delivery driver. Said she had always voted Conservative, but voted Lib Dem due to party gate. Says she will probably stick with the Lib Dems next time
Brenda Iles, 80, retired pub landlady, a lifelong Labour supporter who had voted Conservative for the first time because she likes Boris and doesn’t like Keir
Ian Hunter, 61. Manager of a butchers, lifelong Labour voter , voted tactically for the Lib Dems to get the Tories out, but this was to send a message, will go back to Labour next time.
Geoff Bloomfield, a retired deputy head, lifelong Tory voter, I voted for Brexit but it’s been mismanaged , so I voted Lib Dem
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Post by graham on Jun 25, 2022 13:04:33 GMT
I am not suggesting that Labour should be given a clear run in Wimbledon. Of course, the LDs will target the seat but Labour should also campaign actively in a seat it held until 2005.Labour remains better placed to day in Wimbledon than it appeared to be in Portsmouth South in 2010. Many thought Labour's success there in 2017 to be a fluke - yet it now seems pretty secure for the party. Much the same might be said re-Cambridge. if you'd actually campaigned for Labour in the last few years in Wimbledon, as I have, you wouldn't say all that. There is literally no belief in Wimbledon CLP that the Lib Dems' momentum can be arrested in the foreseeable future. I am sure many would have made similar comments re-Portsmouth South in 2010 - and even 2015. The LDs remain strong there in Local Elections , but I suspect they no longer have high expectations re - winning back the seat anytime soon. I am aware that proposed Boundary Changes in Wimbledon may not be helpful to Labour, but as of now it is reasonable to point out that Labour has actually won the seat twice - and performed strongly as recently as 2017.. The LDs did comfortably win in this years Merton Borough Elections but their vote share failed to quite reach what the party polled in 2019.Given that the LDs generally outperform at Local Elections relative to GEs. that result does not really justify some of the hype re- their prospects there. In 2019 Labour managed almost 24% in a poor year in which its vote is likely to have been depressed by Corbyn , the salience of Brexit and the pressure from the LDs to support them tactically.Prima facie - and given the seat's electoral history over decades - an increase in Labour's GB vote share to circa 40% from the 33% received in 2019 would make a Labour share in Wimbledon of 30% - 35% a reasonable target. Were I a Labour activist there I would be seriously concerned at repeating the mistakes made in Carshalton & Wallington back in the 1980s. , when what had been a Tory/Labour marginal became a Tory/Alliance battleground - and remains so , though Tom Brake's defeat and retirement perhaps gives Labour some opportunity to regain lost ground.. From a Labour perspective I would rather see a decent Tory - such as Stephen Hammond - hang on to the seat than face being electorally eclipsed there by the LDs for a generation or more. It really is a seat where I would still be pushing the 'Tories Little Helpers' line very hard.
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Post by matureleft on Jun 25, 2022 13:16:58 GMT
Just an observation - what is it about the Conservative Party and its by-election candidates? Either way, the Conservatives seem so desperate to pick a candidate they can "manage" they end up losing the seat with a candidate who gets ridiculed for not having any clear voice or opinion beyond meaningless slavish platitudes. The Labour Party isn’t any different. Both parties have decided that for by-election circuses they need someone as colourless, manipulable, and opinionless as possible, and that it is essential even so to keep them as far as possible away from not just journalists, but also voters. Like so much of modern politics, this all contributes to the general dissatisfaction and alienation of the public. A bit strong. They certainly go through a careful vetting process to remove those who would be exposed by media scrutiny of social media. They definitely need to be prepared to do what they’re told - where to go, what to say. But assuming reasonable competence they meet voters. While they are screened from the media (which is assumed to be hostile by Labour, with reason) they normally take part in voter ID activity (but not as door knockers). They take part in candidate debates. I would be surprised if the Wakefield candidate was kept out of sight. Why? Well all parties have had bitter experiences of local favourites turning out badly. It certainly makes the campaigns more interesting but you’re likely to lose. Voters may say they’d like more colourful candidates but the evidence tends to point against that being true. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 25, 2022 13:42:19 GMT
if you'd actually campaigned for Labour in the last few years in Wimbledon, as I have, you wouldn't say all that. There is literally no belief in Wimbledon CLP that the Lib Dems' momentum can be arrested in the foreseeable future. I am sure many would have made similar comments re-Portsmouth South in 2010 - and even 2015. The LDs remain strong there in Local Elections , but I suspect they no longer have high expectations re - winning back the seat anytime soon. I am aware that proposed Boundary Changes in Wimbledon may not be helpful to Labour, but as of now it is reasonable to point out that Labour has actually won the seat twice - and performed strongly as recently as 2017.. The LDs did comfortably win in this years Merton Borough Elections but their vote share failed to quite reach what the party polled in 2019.Given that the LDs generally outperform at Local Elections relative to GEs. that result does not really justify some of the hype re- their prospects there. In 2019 Labour managed almost 24% in a poor year in which its vote is likely to have been depressed by Corbyn , the salience of Brexit and the pressure from the LDs to support them tactically.Prima facie - and given the seat's electoral history over decades - an increase in Labour's GB vote share to circa 40% from the 33% received in 2019 would make a Labour share in Wimbledon of 30% - 35% a reasonable target. Were I a Labour activist there I would be seriously concerned at repeating the mistakes made in Carshalton & Wallington back in the 1980s. , when what had been a Tory/Labour marginal became a Tory/Alliance battleground - and remains so , though Tom Brake's defeat and retirement perhaps gives Labour some opportunity to regain lost ground.. From a Labour perspective I would rather see a decent Tory - such as Stephen Hammond - hang on to the seat than face being electorally eclipsed there by the LDs for a generation or more. It really is a seat where I would still be pushing the 'Tories Little Helpers' line very hard.
Just sounds as if you are a Labour tribalist who can't handle anything other than a Labour majority as an alternative to the Tories. Which seats would you prefer the LibDems to take rather than the Tories? |
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jun 25, 2022 13:42:26 GMT
Of the 3 Lib Dem by election gains, what is the order from most likely to least likely for the party to be able to hold at a General election? Or are they all about the same? I would say Chesham then Tiverton then Shropshire. Chesham is the only one I could envision them realistically holding. If Helen Morgan doesn't hold on to North Shropshire it won't be for want of effort. She seems to be everywhere, and is making damned sure that the public have a chance to notice it. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 25, 2022 13:50:03 GMT
I am sure many would have made similar comments re-Portsmouth South in 2010 - and even 2015. The LDs remain strong there in Local Elections , but I suspect they no longer have high expectations re - winning back the seat anytime soon. I am aware that proposed Boundary Changes in Wimbledon may not be helpful to Labour, but as of now it is reasonable to point out that Labour has actually won the seat twice - and performed strongly as recently as 2017.. The LDs did comfortably win in this years Merton Borough Elections but their vote share failed to quite reach what the party polled in 2019.Given that the LDs generally outperform at Local Elections relative to GEs. that result does not really justify some of the hype re- their prospects there. In 2019 Labour managed almost 24% in a poor year in which its vote is likely to have been depressed by Corbyn , the salience of Brexit and the pressure from the LDs to support them tactically.Prima facie - and given the seat's electoral history over decades - an increase in Labour's GB vote share to circa 40% from the 33% received in 2019 would make a Labour share in Wimbledon of 30% - 35% a reasonable target. Were I a Labour activist there I would be seriously concerned at repeating the mistakes made in Carshalton & Wallington back in the 1980s. , when what had been a Tory/Labour marginal became a Tory/Alliance battleground - and remains so , though Tom Brake's defeat and retirement perhaps gives Labour some opportunity to regain lost ground.. From a Labour perspective I would rather see a decent Tory - such as Stephen Hammond - hang on to the seat than face being electorally eclipsed there by the LDs for a generation or more. It really is a seat where I would still be pushing the 'Tories Little Helpers' line very hard.
Just sounds as if you are a Labour tribalist who can't handle anything other than a Labour majority as an alternative to the Tories. Which seats would you prefer the LibDems to take rather than the Tories? I actually voted LD in 2001 and 2005 - much preferred Charles Kennedy to Blair. Since 1992 I have voted Labour at two GEs - 2015 and 2017. Voted Green in 2010 and 2019. To answer your question directly , there are many seats which come to mind - North Devon - North Cornwall - Montgomery - Esher & Walton - Orpington - Yeovil - Torbay - Cheadle - Winchester - Lewes - Eastbourne - Guildford. I would never vote tactically myself, however.
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 25, 2022 14:01:35 GMT
All of which are seats where Labour are not competitive.
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 25, 2022 14:10:55 GMT
All of which are seats where Labour are not competitive. Indeed. I would not wish to see the LDs win seats where Labour is competive. |
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Post by matureleft on Jun 25, 2022 16:55:04 GMT
I would say Chesham then Tiverton then Shropshire. Chesham is the only one I could envision them realistically holding. If Helen Morgan doesn't hold on to North Shropshire it won't be for want of effort. She seems to be everywhere, and is making damned sure that the public have a chance to notice it. Well that's essential. That has to be sustained and she could do with some real (or seemingly so - you sometimes get credit where none is due just as you get blame when you aren't responsible!) successes. Sounds like she's got some experienced advice. And the Lib Dem leadership shouldn't expect her in Westminster for anything other than either major votes or stuff that she can get publicity for. |
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Post by matureleft on Jun 25, 2022 17:22:59 GMT
All of which are seats where Labour are not competitive. Well most of the seats on either side will fall into that category. There are a few Lib Dem prospects where Labour running a minimal campaign would be hard to sell, and vice versa. In the Lib Dem prospects column would be Wimbledon, Cities of London and Westminster, Finchley and Golders Green, Chelsea and Fulham all of which have significant Labour votes (and in two cases Labour history). Awkward but I note batman saying things about Wimbledon. Understandings aren't needed in every seat (and probably won't be struck and in many cases won't be necessary). And local activists are of course free to campaign more actively, and may. And, as I've said, the national campaigns have some considerable effect - I would guess Labour won some places in 1997 where the local campaign was fairly modest. And if the Lib Dems repeat their 2019 performance at national level that'll make any but their tightest marginals unwinnable regardless of a Labour understanding. What we are after. at the very least, is an avoidance of the mutual destruction that took place in some seats last time. With skill, empathy at local level and a bit of careful resource allocation it should be possible to do better than that. But it won't be perfect. I write this (as the one or two who know my history know) as a hardened opponent of Lib Dems at local level - you can't have been any sort of active Labour member in Cambridge without that perspective. I would be surprised if Merseyside were a haven of Labour members who get on well with Lib Dems! But we have to see a bigger picture and a wider world than our own experience. |
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