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Post by johnloony on Jun 23, 2022 22:04:27 GMT
I've already seen the first idiot asking if there are exit polls. There used to be exit polls in parliamentary by-elections in the 1980s and 90s. Anyway, I’ve heard a rumour from a 17-year-old on Twitter, who says that he has heard from a Lib Dem (who doesn’t want to be identified) who says that the Conservative Party will win T&H by 3,000. I know the 17-year-old and he’s far more knowledgeable and sensible than any dim hysterical Lib Dem source that he might have heard. |
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,466 
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Post by peterl on Jun 23, 2022 22:06:10 GMT
Apparently, according to the BBC blog, there has not been a by election in the south west since 1986. Seem to have forgotten Christchurch.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 23, 2022 22:23:48 GMT
OTOH, its a more rural seat so could take longer to gather in all the ballot boxes, plus I would say the chance of a recount is probably greater than Wakefield.Also posting this here as well in case anyone missed it in the other thread. Live blog covering both seats here Let us see which factors are more significant. Pairings of rural and urban parliamentary by-elections are very rare indeed. The arrangements made by the ROs (how many counting positions, arrangements for processing ballot boxes on arrival, when to take breaks*) can be as significant as the nature of the constituency. * I was at one count where it was decided that all the counting teams would take a 15 minute tea break at the same time. Given there was only one serving point people were still queueing half an hour into the "15 minute" tea break. |
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Post by greenhert on Jun 23, 2022 22:23:56 GMT
Apparently, according to the BBC blog, there has not been a by election in the south west since 1986. Seem to have forgotten Christchurch. Also, the Truro by-election occurred in 1987, not 1986. There were no by-elections in the South West region in 1986. |
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,797
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Post by johng on Jun 23, 2022 22:29:01 GMT
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aargauer
Conservative
Posts: 5,671
Member is Online
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Post by aargauer on Jun 23, 2022 22:30:48 GMT
I find this not credible. It'd imply a Lib Dem bar chart is accurate! |
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Post by willpower3 on Jun 23, 2022 22:37:39 GMT
Dan Hodges saying something different, that it'll be an easy Lib Dem win based on three boxes he's seen being opened.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,362
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Post by iain on Jun 23, 2022 22:39:00 GMT
I find this not credible. It'd imply a Lib Dem bar chart is accurate! Joking aside, it isn't credible - there will almost certainly be a wide variation in how different boxes vote in such a constituency |
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,797
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Post by johng on Jun 23, 2022 22:39:21 GMT
Dan Hodges saying something different, that it'll be an easy Lib Dem win based on three boxes he's seen being opened. Dan Hodges? May as well come from CCHQ. |
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Post by evergreenadam on Jun 23, 2022 22:39:27 GMT
Dan Hodges saying something different, that it'll be an easy Lib Dem win based on three boxes he's seen being opened. Who is Dan Hodges? |
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Post by willpower3 on Jun 23, 2022 22:42:11 GMT
Dan Hodges saying something different, that it'll be an easy Lib Dem win based on three boxes he's seen being opened. Who is Dan Hodges? Can't tell if this is a (somewhat deserved) jibe at Mr Hodges or whether it is a genuine question. If the latter then there is another tweet from Mr Hodges posted above. |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 23, 2022 22:44:59 GMT
He actually blocked me for pointing that out. |
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Post by agbutler on Jun 23, 2022 22:47:50 GMT
He actually blocked me for pointing that out. He blocked me for calling him an idiot |
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aargauer
Conservative
Posts: 5,671
Member is Online
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Post by aargauer on Jun 23, 2022 22:54:28 GMT
Dan Hodges saying something different, that it'll be an easy Lib Dem win based on three boxes he's seen being opened. It rather depends on the location the box comes from doesn't it. Something your average awful journalist wouldn't appreciate. |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 23, 2022 23:04:38 GMT
He actually blocked me for pointing that out. He blocked me for calling him an idiot I think me suggesting as he still lived with mummy he should ask her to explain a basic political concept to him (can’t even remember what it was) might have contributed to my exile - although he’s not yet discovered my back up a/c from eons ago that allows me to see his Tweets and use my primary a/c to reply if I tag another Tweeter in. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,687
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jun 23, 2022 23:06:10 GMT
I've already seen the first idiot asking if there are exit polls. There used to be exit polls in parliamentary by-elections in the 1980s and 90s. Anyway, I’ve heard a rumour from a 17-year-old on Twitter, who says that he has heard from a Lib Dem (who doesn’t want to be identified) who says that the Conservative Party will win T&H by 3,000. I know the 17-year-old and he’s far more knowledgeable and sensible than any dim hysterical Lib Dem source that he might have heard. ISTR that there were rumours soon after the polls closed in North Shropshire that the Tories had held it. And we know what happened after that. |
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Post by willpower3 on Jun 23, 2022 23:09:14 GMT
There used to be exit polls in parliamentary by-elections in the 1980s and 90s. Anyway, I’ve heard a rumour from a 17-year-old on Twitter, who says that he has heard from a Lib Dem (who doesn’t want to be identified) who says that the Conservative Party will win T&H by 3,000. I know the 17-year-old and he’s far more knowledgeable and sensible than any dim hysterical Lib Dem source that he might have heard. ISTR that there were rumours soon after the polls closed in North Shropshire that the Tories had held it. And we know what happened after that. The initial rumours tonight were that it was neck and neck. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 23, 2022 23:14:00 GMT
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Jun 23, 2022 23:25:03 GMT
I will be going to bed in a moment so won't be staying up, but I do want to say that if this is a stonking Lib Dem win, them saying it is 'tight' will make them look like pillocks. Not to the public who don't care about these things, and not to political journalists who are largely idiots, but certainly in the eyes of anyone who takes a genuine interest.
Label it expectation management if you want, but if you've spoken to that many people on polling day and you win big, but genuinely believe that things are tight, then you have either spoken to none of your own voters in which case you're a moron, or you're really bad at maths or you're incapable in some other way. This isn't 1997 and this isn't a wave of totally unexpected gains. I really wish that all parties would stop indulging in this: it's maybe a legitimate tactic in the closing stages, but after the polls have closed? Come on.
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sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979
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Post by sirbenjamin on Jun 23, 2022 23:27:33 GMT
Anyone who says 'things are looking tight' mere hours before their candidate romps home with a healthy majority should be ritually tortured live on TV at the count.
'What's looking tight now, eh? Eh? Your scrotal sac, that's what, you disingenuous cuntwafer'.
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