ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,592 
|
Post by ricmk on Jun 23, 2022 23:28:08 GMT
Sky News: some LDs believe they've won by a "double digit margin". Not sure what they mean by a double digit margin though. I am sure most Lib Dems would take a win by 10 votes. But it sounds like something extraordinary is happening. |
|
|
|
Post by Strontium Dog on Jun 23, 2022 23:31:42 GMT
As a Lib Dem you always expect the worst, so a Lib Dem saying it looks tight isn't being disingenuous, they're just struggling to overcome their natural inclinations.
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,362
|
Post by iain on Jun 23, 2022 23:37:14 GMT
As a Lib Dem you always expect the worst, so a Lib Dem saying it looks tight isn't being disingenuous, they're just struggling to overcome their natural inclinations. Particularly when we go in as favourites - clear that we (meaning the actual party apparatus, not us on this forum) were way more nervous for this by-election, which has probably led to some unwarranted pessimism. |
|
|
|
Post by willpower3 on Jun 23, 2022 23:37:49 GMT
As a Lib Dem you always expect the worst, so a Lib Dem saying it looks tight isn't being disingenuous, they're just struggling to overcome their natural inclinations. Any Lib Dem who goes into any kind of by election expecting the worst knows nothing of their own party. |
|
|
|
Post by aargauer on Jun 23, 2022 23:38:47 GMT
As a Lib Dem you always expect the worst, so a Lib Dem saying it looks tight isn't being disingenuous, they're just struggling to overcome their natural inclinations. Why would you expect the worst in by elections? If there’s a shred of a chance you do well you do. I’m honest that I fully expect easy gains in north Shropshire and Tiverton at the by election. Wouldn’t be amazed about Chesham either way. |
|
will
Non-Aligned
Posts: 211
|
Post by will on Jun 23, 2022 23:48:28 GMT
I will be going to bed in a moment so won't be staying up, but I do want to say that if this is a stonking Lib Dem win, them saying it is 'tight' will make them look like pillocks. Not to the public who don't care about these things, and not to political journalists who are largely idiots, but certainly in the eyes of anyone who takes a genuine interest. Label it expectation management if you want, but if you've spoken to that many people on polling day and you win big, but genuinely believe that things are tight, then you have either spoken to none of your own voters in which case you're a moron, or you're really bad at maths or you're incapable in some other way. This isn't 1997 and this isn't a wave of totally unexpected gains. I really wish that all parties would stop indulging in this: it's maybe a legitimate tactic in the closing stages, but after the polls have closed? Come on. I mean sure it's transparently spin, but party activists aren't under any obligation to not spin to the media. Who cares, just take it with a grain of salt and move on. |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 23, 2022 23:56:20 GMT
I find this not credible. It'd imply a Lib Dem bar chart is accurate! Joking aside, it isn't credible - there will almost certainly be a wide variation in how different boxes vote in such a constituency Theo Usherwood on LBC was saying something similar re: the early boxes which were from rural wards but that the towns were breaking two to one for the Lib Dems (also that Labour will lose their deposit) |
|
|
|
Post by frankyank on Jun 24, 2022 0:00:20 GMT
As a Lib Dem you always expect the worst, so a Lib Dem saying it looks tight isn't being disingenuous, they're just struggling to overcome their natural inclinations. The Lib Dems and the American (presumably il-Lib) Dems share this sort of thinking. With the added bonus that even the slightest bit of optimism is usually cause for alarm... |
|
|
|
Post by aargauer on Jun 24, 2022 0:19:37 GMT
As a Lib Dem you always expect the worst, so a Lib Dem saying it looks tight isn't being disingenuous, they're just struggling to overcome their natural inclinations. The Lib Dems and the American (presumably il-Lib) Dems share this sort of thinking. With the added bonus that even the slightest bit of optimism is usually cause for alarm... If ever I get upset about the lack of a classical liberal party in the UK, I just have to look to the US and suddenly I feel much happier! |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2022 0:22:29 GMT
As a Lib Dem you always expect the worst, so a Lib Dem saying it looks tight isn't being disingenuous, they're just struggling to overcome their natural inclinations. Hah! Now that is a politician’s answer. |
|
Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,951
|
Post by Khunanup on Jun 24, 2022 0:24:03 GMT
Apparently, according to the BBC blog, there has not been a by election in the south west since 1986. Seem to have forgotten Christchurch. Now says 1987... And bearing in mind this is the BBC South West political editor, he's quite right in that definition of South West as Christchurch of course falls under the BBC South region. |
|
peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,466
|
Post by peterl on Jun 24, 2022 0:25:45 GMT
Apparently, according to the BBC blog, there has not been a by election in the south west since 1986. Seem to have forgotten Christchurch. Now says 1987... And bearing in mind this is the BBC South West political editor, he's quite right in that definition of South West as Christchurch of course falls under the BBC South region. Most people would think (if they think anything) of the government regions in the abscence of anything different being indicated. |
|
clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
|
Post by clyde1998 on Jun 24, 2022 0:28:23 GMT
52% turnout apparently.
|
|
ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,592
|
Post by ricmk on Jun 24, 2022 0:29:53 GMT
52% turnout. Only running about 20 mins behind Wakefield even with more votes to count. I wouldn't bet against us getting the Tiverton result before the Wakefield one. Could be a competitive race there.
|
|
|
|
Post by melthamhd94nn on Jun 24, 2022 0:30:40 GMT
Lib Dems 20,000+?
|
|
Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,951
|
Post by Khunanup on Jun 24, 2022 0:32:57 GMT
Now says 1987... And bearing in mind this is the BBC South West political editor, he's quite right in that definition of South West as Christchurch of course falls under the BBC South region. Most people would think (if they think anything) of the government regions in the abscence of anything different being indicated. There aren't any consistent government regions anymore, which is why the BCE continuing to insist on using them as a basis for boundaries is mystifying. Anyway, he's the BBC South West political editor so presumably his punters are aware of the area that he covers, it's not really his job to qualify that every time he mentions south west. |
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on Jun 24, 2022 0:34:36 GMT
With a 52% turnout and an electorate of just under 80,000, yes in all likelihood. |
|
cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,134
|
Post by cogload on Jun 24, 2022 0:56:26 GMT
Apparently they have "found" another box of postal votes..🤔
|
|
|
|
Post by willpower3 on Jun 24, 2022 1:09:25 GMT
Jardine just on, didn't sound as clear cut as she did when interviewed at a similar point in North Shropshire, or as clear cut as a lot of the rumours tonight.
|
|
ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,592
|
Post by ricmk on Jun 24, 2022 1:11:57 GMT
Turnout was thought to be 51.9% but a few more postal votes have been discovered. So maybe it'll be 52-53%. iverton and Honiton, the Tower Hamlets of the West Country! |
|
