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Post by aargauer on Jun 21, 2022 8:20:26 GMT
6000 since the previous release of data? Think it though. If there were just a few additional canvasses over the weekend, and the previous data was at 42% for the Lib Dems, the new data would have to be 100% LD and 0% Tory for the whole to move to 44% LD. If half of the data was old and half new, the swing on the new data would have to be twice as good, i.e. the new data puts the LDs ahead not just neck and neck. If that was true, they'd publish the more favourable recent only data. No, by deduction, the 6000 people canvassed are new data that shows a better result than previously stated. Its worthless data as we have no idea whether a) its the truth based on the parties internal data, and b) its representative. My guess would be its neither. |
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Post by woollyliberal on Jun 21, 2022 8:52:23 GMT
If the Lib Dems win, it will be the biggest ever by-election victory in British politics. There is no 'should be ahead' in a situation that is this exceptional. When comparing against the best result ever, surely they should be slightly behind? Bradford West? Clacton? Bermondsey? Lincoln? Christchurch? All of those are over 35% You only need a 22% swing to win this - that's nowhere near the biggest by election swing ever. Not even top 20. Incidentally, only one of the top 20 post war swings were won by Labour or the Conservatives (1994 Dudley West Con to Lab). The second biggest Lab to Con swing was also in Dudley! Biggest majority |
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Post by aargauer on Jun 21, 2022 9:08:14 GMT
Bradford West? Clacton? Bermondsey? Lincoln? Christchurch? All of those are over 35% You only need a 22% swing to win this - that's nowhere near the biggest by election swing ever. Not even top 20. Incidentally, only one of the top 20 post war swings were won by Labour or the Conservatives (1994 Dudley West Con to Lab). The second biggest Lab to Con swing was also in Dudley! Biggest majority That's an odd way of looking at it. Tiverton in 2019 (40.7%) is very slightly larger than Christchurch (39.9%) in 1992, but that was won 2:1 in the by-election. Also only minutely larger than 2019 North Shropshire (40.6%). Anyway, it is any case not true, as all 3 are very much lower than Glasgow Govan (52.5% majority in 1987) |
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Post by grahammurray on Jun 21, 2022 9:08:22 GMT
LibDem internal canvass analysis becoming a tad more favourable: The least surprising news release of the election. And if the Lib Dem’s had genuinely only spoken to 6,000 voters by June 20th, they weren’t running a very good campaign… 6,000 in a single weekend. |
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Post by matureleft on Jun 21, 2022 9:12:45 GMT
1. If the Lib Dems win, it’ll be an excellent result for them and nobody can take that away from them. They’ve had some big by-election wins. Comparing them isn’t that useful. Each seat and the circumstances of calling it is different. The circumstances here, objectively, would be pretty unfriendly to the Tories.
2. The tactic of releasing selected canvass data (or even inventing it or manipulating it so that it’s effectively invented) is well-known and isn’t unique to the Lib Dems. Experienced activists as you’ll find on here will be cynical and may tease but there’s no need for sensitivity or rationalisation - it’s a tactic aimed at influencing the electorate and one’s own activists. Fine. Occasionally ignorant media types take such things seriously.
3. The absence of any independent polling here leaves space for this. In Wakefield Labour has a very different problem - polling seems to place them far ahead thus encouraging complacency in activists and voters. Labour has been determinedly downplaying the supposed lead quoting (vaguely) their own doorstep data.
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Jun 21, 2022 10:16:19 GMT
1. If the Lib Dems win, it’ll be an excellent result for them and nobody can take that away from them. They’ve had some big by-election wins. Comparing them isn’t that useful. Each seat and the circumstances of calling it is different. The circumstances here, objectively, would be pretty unfriendly to the Tories. 2. The tactic of releasing selected canvass data (or even inventing it or manipulating it so that it’s effectively invented) is well-known and isn’t unique to the Lib Dems. Experienced activists as you’ll find on here will be cynical and may tease but there’s no need for sensitivity or rationalisation - it’s a tactic aimed at influencing the electorate and one’s own activists. Fine. Occasionally ignorant media types take such things seriously. 3. The absence of any independent polling here leaves space for this. In Wakefield Labour has a very different problem - polling seems to place them far ahead thus encouraging complacency in activists and voters. Labour has been determinedly downplaying the supposed lead quoting (vaguely) their own doorstep data. The LDs came close here in 1997 - fewer than 1,700 votes behind the Tory. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 21, 2022 11:10:35 GMT
That's an odd way of looking at it. Tiverton in 2019 (40.7%) is very slightly larger than Christchurch (39.9%) in 1992, but that was won 2:1 in the by-election. Also only minutely larger than 2019 North Shropshire (40.6%). Anyway, it is any case not true, as all 3 are very much lower than Glasgow Govan (52.5% majority in 1987) I think he meant in terms of numbers not percentages |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 21, 2022 11:15:18 GMT
Tanya Gold in UnHerd "This by-election is the most depressing I have covered. It feels sunken and shameful, which is not surprising when you consider its origins: a by-election not for constituents, who feel ignored no matter their stripe, but for other people. The media is here, mugging locals and holding up queues in the butchers. They gawp at the nerve of it: as if we are more interested in a prime minister’s fate than a constituency’s. They wonder why they were not always so interesting to us; why we never came here before; if we are irreparably trivial." unherd.com/2022/06/the-tories-deserve-to-lose-tiverton/ "The media is here..." - you are the media! |
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Post by batman on Jun 21, 2022 11:47:32 GMT
1. If the Lib Dems win, it’ll be an excellent result for them and nobody can take that away from them. They’ve had some big by-election wins. Comparing them isn’t that useful. Each seat and the circumstances of calling it is different. The circumstances here, objectively, would be pretty unfriendly to the Tories. 2. The tactic of releasing selected canvass data (or even inventing it or manipulating it so that it’s effectively invented) is well-known and isn’t unique to the Lib Dems. Experienced activists as you’ll find on here will be cynical and may tease but there’s no need for sensitivity or rationalisation - it’s a tactic aimed at influencing the electorate and one’s own activists. Fine. Occasionally ignorant media types take such things seriously. 3. The absence of any independent polling here leaves space for this. In Wakefield Labour has a very different problem - polling seems to place them far ahead thus encouraging complacency in activists and voters. Labour has been determinedly downplaying the supposed lead quoting (vaguely) their own doorstep data. The LDs came close here in 1997 - fewer than 1,700 votes behind the Tory. that's true but there have been boundary changes since then which have made the seat more strongly Conservative than it was then |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 21, 2022 12:52:06 GMT
The LDs came close here in 1997 - fewer than 1,700 votes behind the Tory. that's true but there have been boundary changes since then which have made the seat more strongly Conservative than it was then I'm not sure they have. The 2010 boundary changes removed areas around Crediton and replaced them with Axminster, Seaton and environs. Both of those are areas that are in ordinary circumstances quite comfortable for the Conservatives. Wikipedia's notionals suggest that they actually strengthened the Conservative position marginally. |
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Post by michaelarden on Jun 21, 2022 14:55:31 GMT
If it really is that close, then the Liberal Democrats have bollocksed it. They should be at least 10% ahead, at an absolute minimum, by now. If the Lib Dems win, it will be the biggest ever by-election victory in British politics. There is no 'should be ahead' in a situation that is this exceptional. When comparing against the best result ever, surely they should be slightly behind? It really won't be. The comparison to the by-election majority in 1935 (or whenever) was at a time of smaller electorates and less multi party competition. The swing required is no different to Chesham or Nth Shropshire and it will not beat Bermondsey for example.
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Post by minionofmidas on Jun 21, 2022 15:19:28 GMT
Tanya Gold in UnHerd "This by-election is the most depressing I have covered. It feels sunken and shameful, which is not surprising when you consider its origins: a by-election not for constituents, who feel ignored no matter their stripe, but for other people. The media is here, mugging locals and holding up queues in the butchers. They gawp at the nerve of it: as if we are more interested in a prime minister’s fate than a constituency’s. They wonder why they were not always so interesting to us; why we never came here before; if we are irreparably trivial." unherd.com/2022/06/the-tories-deserve-to-lose-tiverton/ "The media is here..." - you are the media! Did you, uh, read the entire snippet? "we" "us" "we" "we" |
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Post by robert1 on Jun 21, 2022 16:09:55 GMT
It may have been posted elsewhere but I have been told that both local authorities are advising that their by-elections will declare between 04.00 and 06.00
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,466 
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Post by peterl on Jun 21, 2022 16:16:21 GMT
Late night then. Good job I got plenty of milk in for tea.  |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 21, 2022 16:43:46 GMT
"The media is here..." - you are the media! Did you, uh, read the entire snippet? "we" "us" "we" "we" We did. All of us. |
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Post by jamesmanc22 on Jun 22, 2022 13:55:34 GMT
With a day to go, my hunch is a conservative hold <1k majority..
Enough for Boris to claim it as a victory and keep him in office for the next election
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,466
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Post by peterl on Jun 22, 2022 14:55:18 GMT
Prediction from another forum I post on for what its worth is 31 people for a Lib Dem gain, 10 for Tory hold, 10 for Labour and 6 for other gain.
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 22, 2022 14:59:44 GMT
Prediction from another forum I post on for what its worth is 31 people for a Lib Dem gain, 10 for Tory hold, 10 for Labour and 6 for other gain. 10 for Labour?! 🤣🤣 |
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,466
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Post by peterl on Jun 22, 2022 15:09:45 GMT
They are not good predictions, and I suspect they are made less seriously than predictions on here.
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Post by batman on Jun 22, 2022 16:31:52 GMT
Prediction from another forum I post on for what its worth is 31 people for a Lib Dem gain, 10 for Tory hold, 10 for Labour and 6 for other gain. 10 for Labour? come on, that's ridiculous. What forum can this possibly be, a forum for the deluded? And of course I say that as a Labour supporter..... |
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