YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,889
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Post by YL on Jun 20, 2022 17:01:11 GMT
When's the last time the bookies favourite (on Election Day) didn't win a by election? Chesham and Amersham? Even more recently than that: Batley & Spen. Now, if you use odds as a prediction tool, B & S wasn't that bad a miss: the Tories were not overwhelming favourites and it was of course very close. C & A is a different matter, though. |
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Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 307 
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Post by Terry Weldon on Jun 20, 2022 17:01:46 GMT
LibDem internal canvass analysis becoming a tad more favourable:
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 20, 2022 17:25:50 GMT
That must be Parish’s personal vote melting away right there… Also, and I’m sure you’re right in this case, but sometimes it’s just one or two farmers with lots of fields! One of the biggest farmers in these parts is a Labour Peer I believe. The biggest is the monarch, and she doesn't vote! (So no posters there ...) |
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Post by andrewp on Jun 20, 2022 17:26:04 GMT
LibDem internal canvass analysis becoming a tad more favourable: I just don’t believe that is true. Absolute BS. We’ll never know either way, so it’s another textbook good play by the Lib Dems and it will sway a few people. |
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Post by stodge on Jun 20, 2022 18:47:15 GMT
When's the last time the bookies favourite (on Election Day) didn't win a by election? What can be fascinating is how the odds move once the polls are closed. I kid you not but you could back the Lib Dems at 2/1 to win North Shropshire at MIDNIGHT after the polls had closed because of a few rumours in the counting hall. Likewise, the Conservatives were 4/6 because it was said someone had told someone else the Conservative shad held on. Exchange traders win and lose serious money on these swings in the markets. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jun 20, 2022 18:56:38 GMT
When's the last time the bookies favourite (on Election Day) didn't win a by election? Probably not the last time, but I believe you could have got 8/1 against the Lib Dems winning the Dunfermline by-election in 2006, as the returning officer was climbing onto the stage to give the result. |
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Post by froome on Jun 20, 2022 19:55:15 GMT
Also, and I’m sure you’re right in this case, but sometimes it’s just one or two farmers with lots of fields! One of the biggest farmers in these parts is a Labour Peer I believe. The biggest is the monarch, and she doesn't vote! (So no posters there ...)This leads me to wonder: if you are a tenant of the Crown, does your contract preclude putting up election posters? |
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Post by grahammurray on Jun 20, 2022 20:20:13 GMT
One of the biggest farmers in these parts is a Labour Peer I believe. The biggest is the monarch, and she doesn't vote! (So no posters there ...)This leads me to wonder: if you are a tenant of the Crown, does your contract preclude putting up election posters? I wonder if it should be asked the other way round. Can a tenant of anyone including the Crown be prohibited from displaying a poster. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 20, 2022 21:18:33 GMT
One of the biggest farmers in these parts is a Labour Peer I believe. The biggest is the monarch, and she doesn't vote! (So no posters there ...)This leads me to wonder: if you are a tenant of the Crown, does your contract preclude putting up election posters? My original comment was a little tongue in cheek. I'm pretty certain tenants of the Duchy of Lancaster are allowed to put up posters. |
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aargauer
Conservative
Posts: 5,674
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Post by aargauer on Jun 20, 2022 21:25:53 GMT
This leads me to wonder: if you are a tenant of the Crown, does your contract preclude putting up election posters? I wonder if it should be asked the other way round. Can a tenant of anyone including the Crown be prohibited from displaying a poster. My lease says that. Luckily I was in charge of enforcing said lease and the only tennant who had actually read it. |
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Post by kevinf on Jun 21, 2022 0:32:07 GMT
LibDem internal canvass analysis becoming a tad more favourable: The least surprising news release of the election. And if the Lib Dem’s had genuinely only spoken to 6,000 voters by June 20th, they weren’t running a very good campaign… |
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Post by matureleft on Jun 21, 2022 4:03:03 GMT
LibDem internal canvass analysis becoming a tad more favourable: The least surprising news release of the election. And if the Lib Dem’s had genuinely only spoken to 6,000 voters by June 20th, they weren’t running a very good campaign… Yes, that is a giveaway. In a by-election with the full resources of the party involved and a plan to win what would be a reasonable contact rate to aim for by now? Certainly 50%, even in a large seat. |
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 21, 2022 4:46:21 GMT
The least surprising news release of the election. And if the Lib Dem’s had genuinely only spoken to 6,000 voters by June 20th, they weren’t running a very good campaign… Yes, that is a giveaway. In a by-election with the full resources of the party involved and a plan to win what would be a reasonable contact rate to aim for by now? Certainly 50%, even in a large seat. I think some people are deluding themselves on how many people will actually speak to canvassers and I've long suspected some contact rates claimed by parties are fabricated or are cumulative over a long period of time. |
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 21, 2022 5:49:25 GMT
LibDem internal canvass analysis becoming a tad more favourable: The least surprising news release of the election. And if the Lib Dem’s had genuinely only spoken to 6,000 voters by June 20th, they weren’t running a very good campaign… 6000 since the previous release of data? |
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Jun 21, 2022 6:25:36 GMT
If it really is that close, then the Liberal Democrats have bollocksed it. They should be at least 10% ahead, at an absolute minimum, by now.
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Post by batman on Jun 21, 2022 7:12:36 GMT
Yes, that is a giveaway. In a by-election with the full resources of the party involved and a plan to win what would be a reasonable contact rate to aim for by now? Certainly 50%, even in a large seat. I think some people are deluding themselves on how many people will actually speak to canvassers and I've long suspected some contact rates claimed by parties are fabricated or are cumulative over a long period of time. not fabricated in any campaign I've ever been involved in. Cumulative yes to some extent but there are always attempts to recontact which are usually successful, in any marginal or semi-marginal race. |
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Post by matureleft on Jun 21, 2022 7:16:19 GMT
Yes, that is a giveaway. In a by-election with the full resources of the party involved and a plan to win what would be a reasonable contact rate to aim for by now? Certainly 50%, even in a large seat. I think some people are deluding themselves on how many people will actually speak to canvassers and I've long suspected some contact rates claimed by parties are fabricated or are cumulative over a long period of time. Perhaps things have changed in the last 15 years or so. This has been a long campaign (taking it from when Parish said he'd resign). It's been the major focus of Lib Dem national activity and it's been held in a part of the country where there should be reasonably nearby member resources. Anyway I'd expect a phone bank to be hard at it. There's always a core of people you can never contact - the most effective campaign I ever did got to 80% without phones and we were on the law of sharply diminishing returns to get it much above 70. Voter fatigue and hostility to campaigns does increase so I buy that it gets tougher. But 50% doesn't seem crazy to me with the resources that must be available. Unless the goal really is just to ram still more leaflets through letter boxes?! |
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Post by woollyliberal on Jun 21, 2022 8:08:21 GMT
If it really is that close, then the Liberal Democrats have bollocksed it. They should be at least 10% ahead, at an absolute minimum, by now. If the Lib Dems win, it will be the biggest ever by-election victory in British politics. There is no 'should be ahead' in a situation that is this exceptional. When comparing against the best result ever, surely they should be slightly behind? |
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Post by woollyliberal on Jun 21, 2022 8:13:34 GMT
The least surprising news release of the election. And if the Lib Dem’s had genuinely only spoken to 6,000 voters by June 20th, they weren’t running a very good campaign… 6000 since the previous release of data? Think it though. If there were just a few additional canvasses over the weekend, and the previous data was at 42% for the Lib Dems, the new data would have to be 100% LD and 0% Tory for the whole to move to 44% LD. If half of the data was old and half new, the swing on the new data would have to be twice as good, i.e. the new data puts the LDs ahead not just neck and neck. If that was true, they'd publish the more favourable recent only data. No, by deduction, the 6000 people canvassed are new data that shows a better result than previously stated. |
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aargauer
Conservative
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Post by aargauer on Jun 21, 2022 8:17:06 GMT
If it really is that close, then the Liberal Democrats have bollocksed it. They should be at least 10% ahead, at an absolute minimum, by now. If the Lib Dems win, it will be the biggest ever by-election victory in British politics. There is no 'should be ahead' in a situation that is this exceptional. When comparing against the best result ever, surely they should be slightly behind? Bradford West? Clacton? Bermondsey? Lincoln? Christchurch? All of those are over 35% You only need a 22% swing to win this - that's nowhere near the biggest by election swing ever. Not even top 20. Incidentally, only one of the top 20 post war swings were won by Labour or the Conservatives (1994 Dudley West Con to Lab). The second biggest Lab to Con swing was also in Dudley! |
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