Tiverton and Honiton

[batman]

Of course Labour tell their supporters it's close too. But we don't say we're behind if we think we're ahead.

[woollyliberal]

Jun 15, 2022 20:23:00 GMT WestCountryRadical said:

So the internal polling numbers have finally appeared

I don't believe they make them up out of thin air. I think they are based on real canvass returns with a bit of fudging applied to give the desired outcome

If they're saying they're only 2% behind at this stage then they're obviously ahead, and if they've managed to squeeze Labour down that low they'll win big

I've seen internal communications on this topic more than once. The usual pattern is that different groups of voters make up their minds at different times. The last group will make their mind up during polling week. It's more than likely true that canvass returns show us just behind a week or two before the day. The party's number crunchers know from experience that it is a good place to be given what usually happens between now and polling day.

[WestCountryRadical]

Jun 16, 2022 7:35:02 GMT woollyliberal said:

Jun 15, 2022 20:23:00 GMT WestCountryRadical said:

So the internal polling numbers have finally appeared

I don't believe they make them up out of thin air. I think they are based on real canvass returns with a bit of fudging applied to give the desired outcome

If they're saying they're only 2% behind at this stage then they're obviously ahead, and if they've managed to squeeze Labour down that low they'll win big

I've seen internal communications on this topic more than once. The usual pattern is that different groups of voters make up their minds at different times. The last group will make their mind up during polling week. It's more than likely true that canvass returns show us just behind a week or two before the day. The party's number crunchers know from experience that it is a good place to be given what usually happens between now and polling day.

The late deciders do tend to overwhelmingly back the main challenger, but I'm not sure that would shift the numbers as much as is claimed.

The final week internal polling in Chesham & Amersham had the Lib Dems 4% behind, they won by 21%

The final week internal polling in North Shropshire had the Lib Dems 1% behind, they won by 16%

[greenchristian]

Jun 16, 2022 8:06:02 GMT WestCountryRadical said:

Jun 16, 2022 7:35:02 GMT woollyliberal said:

I've seen internal communications on this topic more than once. The usual pattern is that different groups of voters make up their minds at different times. The last group will make their mind up during polling week. It's more than likely true that canvass returns show us just behind a week or two before the day. The party's number crunchers know from experience that it is a good place to be given what usually happens between now and polling day.

The late deciders do tend to overwhelmingly back the main challenger, but I'm not sure that would shift the numbers as much as is claimed.

The final week internal polling in Chesham & Amersham had the Lib Dems 4% behind, they won by 21%

The final week internal polling in North Shropshire had the Lib Dems 1% behind, they won by 16%

So we can expect them to win here by around 18%?

[andrewp]

Jun 16, 2022 8:40:34 GMT greenchristian said:

Jun 16, 2022 8:06:02 GMT WestCountryRadical said:

The late deciders do tend to overwhelmingly back the main challenger, but I'm not sure that would shift the numbers as much as is claimed.

The final week internal polling in Chesham & Amersham had the Lib Dems 4% behind, they won by 21%

The final week internal polling in North Shropshire had the Lib Dems 1% behind, they won by 16%

So we can expect them to win here by around 18%?

I think thats about right.

[woollyliberal]

Jun 16, 2022 8:06:02 GMT WestCountryRadical said:

Jun 16, 2022 7:35:02 GMT woollyliberal said:

I've seen internal communications on this topic more than once. The usual pattern is that different groups of voters make up their minds at different times. The last group will make their mind up during polling week. It's more than likely true that canvass returns show us just behind a week or two before the day. The party's number crunchers know from experience that it is a good place to be given what usually happens between now and polling day.

The late deciders do tend to overwhelmingly back the main challenger, but I'm not sure that would shift the numbers as much as is claimed.

The final week internal polling in Chesham & Amersham had the Lib Dems 4% behind, they won by 21%

The final week internal polling in North Shropshire had the Lib Dems 1% behind, they won by 16%

In both those cases, the Tories were asleep. The only people talking to the late deciders was the Lib Dems. That's not true this time.

[WestCountryRadical]

With the levels of anger and disaffection out there, the Tories are just pissing into the wind. I fully expect another thumping great Lib Dem majority

[michaelarden]

Jun 15, 2022 19:33:40 GMT batman said:

I would be astonished if it isn't already in the bag.

Quite - and given around 40% of the total will have cast their votes already by post the Lib Dems know exactly how far in front they are. The 'just behind' message is for their activists to get down to Devon to drag out the rest of the vote. If they said they're 20% in front already how many would turn up?

[Deleted]

Although surely most people who are going to vote in a by-election are political enough that they will already know who they're voting for? Won't most "late deciders" simply not vote

[gwynthegriff]

Jun 16, 2022 9:16:34 GMT michaelarden said:

Jun 15, 2022 19:33:40 GMT batman said:

I would be astonished if it isn't already in the bag.

Quite - and given around 40% of the total will have cast their votes already by post the Lib Dems know exactly how far in front they are. The 'just behind' message is for their activists to get down to Devon to drag out the rest of the vote. If they said they're 20% in front already how many would turn up?

I think "exactly" is rather unlikely - a pretty good idea within a considerable margin of error seems more likely.

[tonyhill]

Kindly explain how the fact (if it is a fact and not a figure you've just made up) that 40% of the total has already voted by post mean that the LibDems know exactly how far in front they are. The postal votes haven't been counted, the contact rate by the LibDems is nothing like 100%, and at the point when the postal votes went out would have been even lower than it is now.

[ricmk]

Definitely something of the boy who cried wolf about all of this. The ‘release you’re 2% behind the week before’ seems to be straight from the script. No mention of feedback from postal vote openings (rightly) but I reckon the spreadsheet kings will have a fair idea where the wind is blowing on both sides.

However it’s the huge majority, lack of LD history and more competent Tory efforts that make this a big ask. I posted as much back at the start of the thread. I won’t be heading down; I reckon this is really a proxy referendum on Boris so everyone knows where they stand. It’s easy to assume that lack of knowledge means an uncertain event must be close - not true in either N Shrops or Chesham. But the LDs do seem to play the part of plucky underdog challenger rather better than they do of being favourite.

[Pete Whitehead]

Jun 16, 2022 13:09:24 GMT ricmk said:

Definitely something of the boy who cried wolf about all of this. The ‘release you’re 2% behind the week before’ seems to be straight from the script. No mention of feedback from postal vote openings (rightly) but I reckon the spreadsheet kings will have a fair idea where the wind is blowing on both sides.

However it’s the huge majority, lack of LD history and more competent Tory efforts that make this a big ask. I posted as much back at the start of the thread. I won’t be heading down; I reckon this is really a proxy referendum on Boris so everyone knows where they stand. It’s easy to assume that lack of knowledge means an uncertain event must be close - not true in either N Shrops or Chesham. But the LDs do seem to play the part of plucky underdog challenger rather better than they do of being favourite.

There's nothing like the lack of Lib Dem history there was in North Shropshire. They almost won the equivalent seat in 1997, used to have a majority on Mid Devon council etc, have held various neighbouring seats in recent memory

[johnloony]

Jun 16, 2022 12:36:34 GMT tonyhill said:

Kindly explain how the fact (if it is a fact and not a figure you've just made up) that 40% of the total has already voted by post mean that the LibDems know exactly how far in front they are. The postal votes haven't been counted, the contact rate by the LibDems is nothing like 100%, and at the point when the postal votes went out would have been even lower than it is now.

Because the postal votes started coming in last week, the council staff probably started opening and processing the postal votes on Monday this week, the political parties are allowed to have official observers to scrutinise the opening of postal votes, and those observers might occasionally accidentally notice how some of the people have voted.

[tonyhill]

Do you know that for a fact (postal votes being counted on Monday) or are you speculating? In my experience it is quite difficult to get an accurate take on the way postal votes are going because there is no requirement to sort them face up - but maybe other returning officers do things differently.

[greenchristian]

Jun 16, 2022 16:14:03 GMT tonyhill said:

Do you know that for a fact (postal votes being counted on Monday) or are you speculating? In my experience it is quite difficult to get an accurate take on the way postal votes are going because there is no requirement to sort them face up - but maybe other returning officers do things differently.

John said "probably", so he is clearly and unambiguously speculating.

Some people seem to think they get an accurate take on postal votes from postal vote openings, others don't. Having attended postal vote openings a few times myself it is often impossible to avoid seeing some of the votes (e.g. when someone has used a permanent marker). Whether someone trying to get an accurate take is able to do so is likely to depend on a number of different factors, not just whether they are sorted face up or face down.

[johnloony]

Jun 16, 2022 16:14:03 GMT tonyhill said:

Do you know that for a fact (postal votes being counted on Monday) or are you speculating? In my experience it is quite difficult to get an accurate take on the way postal votes are going because there is no requirement to sort them face up - but maybe other returning officers do things differently.

My comment was based on what happens in Croydon (postal votes are processed every day starting from the Monday of the week before the election. The law explocitly requires the ballot papers to be processed face-down (the job that the staff are doing is checking that the serial number on the back of the ballot paper is the same as the number on the envelope it came in), and that the observers are not allowed to look to see how people actually voted.

But the point is that some of the official observers, observing and scrutinising the process on behalf of the parties, might occasionally ACCIDENTALLY notice how people have voted (because the paper is thin enough to see the marks and indentations on the other side) and then might ACCIDENTALLY or INADVERTENTLY let slip an innocuous comment to their party colleagues about what they might have accidentally seen. These processes go on all over the country whenever there is an election. The staff in the electoral services departments of the councils who process the postal votes probably vary a lot in terms of whether they accidentally notice that the party agents might be accidentally noticing the things which they are not allowed to deliberately notice or talk about.

It is for this reason that I have never entered any of the prediction competitions for elections in Croydon unless I do my prediction before the start of the week before the election date.

[johnloony]

Jun 16, 2022 16:27:26 GMT greenchristian said:

Jun 16, 2022 16:14:03 GMT tonyhill said:

Do you know that for a fact (postal votes being counted on Monday) or are you speculating? In my experience it is quite difficult to get an accurate take on the way postal votes are going because there is no requirement to sort them face up - but maybe other returning officers do things differently.

John said "probably", so he is clearly and unambiguously speculating.

Some people seem to think they get an accurate take on postal votes from postal vote openings, others don't. Having attended postal vote openings a few times myself it is often impossible to avoid seeing some of the votes (e.g. when someone has used a permanent marker). Whether someone trying to get an accurate take is able to do so is likely to depend on a number of different factors, not just whether they are sorted face up or face down.

Quite so. Even the size of the tables at which the staff are sitting, the direction of the sunlight from the windows, and the positions of the folds in the ballot paper can make a big difference to what somebody might accidentally notice.

[grahammurray]

Jun 16, 2022 16:35:48 GMT johnloony said:

Jun 16, 2022 16:14:03 GMT tonyhill said:

Do you know that for a fact (postal votes being counted on Monday) or are you speculating? In my experience it is quite difficult to get an accurate take on the way postal votes are going because there is no requirement to sort them face up - but maybe other returning officers do things differently.

My comment was based on what happens in Croydon (postal votes are processed every day starting from the Monday of the week before the election. The law explocitly requires the ballot papers to be processed face-down (the job that the staff are doing is checking that the serial number on the back of the ballot paper is the same as the number on the envelope it came in), and that the observers are not allowed to look to see how people actually voted.

But the point is that some of the official observers, observing and scrutinising the process on behalf of the parties, might occasionally ACCIDENTALLY notice how people have voted (because the paper is thin enough to see the marks and indentations on the other side) and then might ACCIDENTALLY or INADVERTENTLY let slip an innocuous comment to their party colleagues about what they might have accidentally seen. These processes go on all over the country whenever there is an election. The staff in the electoral services departments of the councils who process the postal votes probably vary a lot in terms of whether they accidentally notice that the party agents might be accidentally noticing the things which they are not allowed to deliberately notice or talk about.

It is for this reason that I have never entered any of the prediction competitions for elections in Croydon unless I do my prediction before the start of the week before the election date.

That's not what they check for.

[gwynthegriff]

Jun 16, 2022 17:15:39 GMT grahammurray said:

Jun 16, 2022 16:35:48 GMT johnloony said:

My comment was based on what happens in Croydon (postal votes are processed every day starting from the Monday of the week before the election. The law explocitly requires the ballot papers to be processed face-down (the job that the staff are doing is checking that the serial number on the back of the ballot paper is the same as the number on the envelope it came in), and that the observers are not allowed to look to see how people actually voted.

But the point is that some of the official observers, observing and scrutinising the process on behalf of the parties, might occasionally ACCIDENTALLY notice how people have voted (because the paper is thin enough to see the marks and indentations on the other side) and then might ACCIDENTALLY or INADVERTENTLY let slip an innocuous comment to their party colleagues about what they might have accidentally seen. These processes go on all over the country whenever there is an election. The staff in the electoral services departments of the councils who process the postal votes probably vary a lot in terms of whether they accidentally notice that the party agents might be accidentally noticing the things which they are not allowed to deliberately notice or talk about.

It is for this reason that I have never entered any of the prediction competitions for elections in Croydon unless I do my prediction before the start of the week before the election date.

That's not what they check for.

There are several things they are doing, such as checking signatures (though round here that is done electronically), but John's main point - that attending the opening of postal ballots is unlikely to give anything other than a general, and potentially unreliable, indication of how things are going - is entirely sound.