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Post by tonyhill on Jun 14, 2022 16:55:59 GMT
Sorry, but that is rubbish - it is very far from a done deal. The vast majority of people who gamble on by-election results seem to have very little idea about the realities on the ground. The odds on a LibDem victory are ridiculous.
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Post by mysticrobin on Jun 14, 2022 17:02:15 GMT
Does anyone who is directly involved, on the ground, in the campaign, wish to give us a ball park percentage guesstimate of how they see things so far please?
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Post by BossMan on Jun 14, 2022 17:15:47 GMT
Well, if we're going to speculate on the outcome here, I've added a poll.
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Post by michaelarden on Jun 14, 2022 21:08:48 GMT
Well, if we're going to speculate on the outcome here, I've added a poll. Great - can we have possible size of majorities like Wakefiled too please? |
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Post by BossMan on Jun 14, 2022 21:16:16 GMT
Well, if we're going to speculate on the outcome here, I've added a poll. Great - can we have possible size of majorities like Wakefiled too please? Alas ProBoards forum software doesn't allow for multiple polls on the same thread, so for now any predictions on that front are going to have to be spoken out aloud (as it were). |
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,789
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Post by iang on Jun 14, 2022 21:26:44 GMT
Well, if we're going to speculate on the outcome here, I've added a poll. Great - can we have possible size of majorities like Wakefiled too please? Someone will probably set that up on the Predictions thread |
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Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 307 
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Post by Terry Weldon on Jun 15, 2022 14:42:44 GMT
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Post by batman on Jun 15, 2022 15:00:28 GMT
I'm calling bullshit on this one. They can't be narrowly behind at the same point in every by-election they seriously fight.
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Post by batman on Jun 15, 2022 15:00:57 GMT
while no doubt simultaneously displaying "Winning Here!" posters.
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jun 15, 2022 15:04:17 GMT
A vote for Labour is a vote for the Tories.
Only the Lib Dems can beat the Tories here.
Obviously missing a bar chart from the last GE like...
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Post by tonyhill on Jun 15, 2022 16:37:32 GMT
Why can't they be narrowly behind at the same point in each by-election they fight seriously? The last week is clearly critical in applying a squeeze message to the wavering supporters of other opposition parties. Just because the LibDems have been successful in persuading Labour and Green voters in the final week to support them doesn't mean that a two percent deficit at this point is 'bullshit'.
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Post by bigfatron on Jun 15, 2022 16:59:14 GMT
And don't forget, the last couple of times at least that they have put this message out they have been on the money, despite counter claims from Tories and Labour that have turned out to be rubbish...
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,645
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jun 15, 2022 17:21:31 GMT
I'm calling bullshit on this one. They can't be narrowly behind at the same point in every by-election they seriously fight. Exactly: Clearly it's in the bag, so I don't need to take time off work to go and help.  |
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Post by batman on Jun 15, 2022 19:33:40 GMT
I would be astonished if it isn't already in the bag.
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Post by greenhert on Jun 15, 2022 19:39:52 GMT
I'm calling bullshit on this one. They can't be narrowly behind at the same point in every by-election they seriously fight. They are just making this claim to encourage more of their activists to come. However, this by-election may indeed result in a narrow gain (or narrow hold). |
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Post by andrewp on Jun 15, 2022 19:57:51 GMT
I think it’s absolute rubbish, and there will be never be any proving it either way, so why not put it out there. To non political people, it will have the desired effect.
If they win by 20% they could be 2% behind now, they could be 20% ahead now. No proving it.
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Post by WestCountryRadical on Jun 15, 2022 20:23:00 GMT
So the internal polling numbers have finally appeared
I don't believe they make them up out of thin air. I think they are based on real canvass returns with a bit of fudging applied to give the desired outcome
If they're saying they're only 2% behind at this stage then they're obviously ahead, and if they've managed to squeeze Labour down that low they'll win big
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Post by aargauer on Jun 15, 2022 20:43:13 GMT
It reminds me of the first time I went canvassing in Oxford West and Abingdon.
A Conservative voter asked me if it was going to be close. I answered in line with the received wisdom that the Lib Dems were heavy favourites but you never know. A wise old Hand took me to one side and told me to always tell Conservative voters that it's going to be close.
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 15, 2022 21:40:41 GMT
It reminds me of the first time I went canvassing in Oxford West and Abingdon. A Conservative voter asked me if it was going to be close. I answered in line with the received wisdom that the Lib Dems were heavy favourites but you never know. A wise old Hand took me to one side and told me to always tell Conservative voters that it's going to be close. Surely the best strategy is to tell voters you think it's going to be one vote either way and their vote could make all the difference! I wonder whether that would work for a lot of Tory voters in their present mood. My feeling is that they would want to get the Tory leadership to listen, so if you tell them their vote may be the one that makes the leadership sit up and take notice, it might not be the result you want.... |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 16, 2022 6:40:32 GMT
And don't forget, the last couple of times at least that they have put this message out they have been on the money, despite counter claims from Tories and Labour that have turned out to be rubbish... A stopped clock is..... |
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