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Post by Merseymike on Jun 12, 2022 13:23:16 GMT
I'm told places where we have councillors are better hunting grounds than places were we don't. I canvassed in Collumpton the other day. On paper it was even between us and the Tories. The tone on the doorstep was CBA from everyone. It felt like a place waiting for inspiration. Each town will be different I guess. That wouldn't surprise me. Looking back to Chesham and Amersham, the collapse of the Labour vote was, I am sure, influenced by the fact that they have no elected presence there and haven't for many years. Chesham has a Labour history, but nothing recent. |
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Post by evergreenadam on Jun 12, 2022 14:43:50 GMT
I'm told places where we have councillors are better hunting grounds than places were we don't. I canvassed in Collumpton the other day. On paper it was even between us and the Tories. The tone on the doorstep was CBA from everyone. It felt like a place waiting for inspiration. Each town will be different I guess. CBA? |
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Post by aargauer on Jun 12, 2022 14:56:47 GMT
I'm told places where we have councillors are better hunting grounds than places were we don't. I canvassed in Collumpton the other day. On paper it was even between us and the Tories. The tone on the doorstep was CBA from everyone. It felt like a place waiting for inspiration. Each town will be different I guess. CBA? Cant be arsed |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,917
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 12, 2022 15:34:40 GMT
What’s the make up of the Labour vote in Tiverton? I would assume the fairly standard composition of the Labour vote in a market town with a bit of industry in an agricultural district. At least most of the time. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jun 12, 2022 20:04:26 GMT
I'm told places where we have councillors are better hunting grounds than places were we don't. I canvassed in Collumpton the other day. On paper it was even between us and the Tories. The tone on the doorstep was CBA from everyone. It felt like a place waiting for inspiration. Each town will be different I guess. Might it have helped if you realised the place you were in was actually called Cullompton?  |
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Post by greenhert on Jun 12, 2022 21:07:27 GMT
What’s the make up of the Labour vote in Tiverton? I would assume the fairly standard composition of the Labour vote in a market town with a bit of industry in an agricultural district. At least most of the time. Similar to most of the West of England and to a lesser extent East Anglia. |
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Post by MeirionGwril on Jun 13, 2022 11:19:32 GMT
Any chance of a poll for this thread?
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Post by minionofmidas on Jun 13, 2022 12:04:08 GMT
Any chance of a poll for this thread? if the polling industry don't bother... |
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Post by michaelarden on Jun 13, 2022 12:33:41 GMT
Any chance of a poll for this thread? Would be interesting for sure. I wouldn't be surprised if the Lib Dem majority here is higher than Labour's in Wakefield - which might actually prop Boris up as he would claim to retain some sort of popularity in the so called red wall. |
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Post by woollyliberal on Jun 13, 2022 15:01:09 GMT
The Tories were asleep in Chesham and Amersham. They were complacent in North Shropshire. The Lib Dems won both with good majorities. Tiverton and Honiton is just as winnable as those but with the Tories are fighting back hard. A big majority is unlikely.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,917
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 13, 2022 15:04:16 GMT
Any chance of a poll for this thread? Would be interesting for sure. I wouldn't be surprised if the Lib Dem majority here is higher than Labour's in Wakefield - which might actually prop Boris up as he would claim to retain some sort of popularity in the so called red wall. No I... I don't think it would mean that. |
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Post by stb12 on Jun 13, 2022 15:50:43 GMT
It’s interesting that the consensus pretty much seems to be that the Lib Dems have this. Is it because of the similarities to North Shropshire (ultra safe Tory, leave voting seat where the Lib Dems start from 3rd)?
I’m not disagreeing but on the face of it the Tories should really be holding this even though a drop in the vote and majority is inevitable
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,363 
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Post by iain on Jun 13, 2022 16:07:30 GMT
It’s interesting that the consensus pretty much seems to be that the Lib Dems have this. Is it because of the similarities to North Shropshire (ultra safe Tory, leave voting seat where the Lib Dems start from 3rd)? I’m not disagreeing but on the face of it the Tories should really be holding this even though a drop in the vote and majority is inevitable I don't think many (serious) Tories or Lib Dems believe it's a done deal at all (and the Tories may even be favoured?), but its not really in either of our interests to air that - expectations management by the Lib Dems tends to become a self-fulfilling prophecy, while the Tories probably can't believe their luck that they would be able to present holding a seat with a 40% majority as some unqualified success. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 13, 2022 16:12:37 GMT
Would be interesting for sure. I wouldn't be surprised if the Lib Dem majority here is higher than Labour's in Wakefield - which might actually prop Boris up as he would claim to retain some sort of popularity in the so called red wall. No I... I don't think it would mean that. Unfortunately I think he would be able to claim that as the media people who will write the narrative would love it and probably wouldn't know any better |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 13, 2022 21:20:40 GMT
Someone said that the Labour vote is (or might be?) holding up surprisingly well. It reminds me of the various by-election results in the 1993-96 period when the Conservative government was so unpopular that Conservative candidates fell from 1st place to 3rd place. I have a theory that there may have been a sort-of reverse tactical voting, whereby people (a) realised that the Conservatives were so unpopular that they didn't need automatically to vote tactically for the main challenger in order to defeat the Conservative, and (b) voted for the 2nd opposition party in order to knock the Conservative down into 3rd place (the theory being that a Conservative candidate dropping from 1st to 3rd is more humiliating than being in 2nd place but being defeated by a large majority).
e.g. Eastleigh, 9th June 1994:
LD 44% (+16)
Lab 28% (+7)
Con 25% (-27)
Perth & Kinross, 25th May 1995:
SNP 40% (+4)
Lab 23% (+10)
Con 21% (-19)
Littleborough & Saddleworth, 27th July 1995
LD 38% (+3)
Lab 34% (+14)
Con 24% (-20)
I'm not suggesting that we have already reached that level of unpopularity at this stage, but there is the possibility that people might vote Labour because they think the Lib Dems have already got T&H in the bag. It might even be enough to split the vote and allow the Conservative to hold the seat.
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Post by greenhert on Jun 13, 2022 21:35:46 GMT
Ah yes, like the Epping Forest by-election of 1988 and the Richmond by-election of 1989. Both involved Conservative holds on low vote shares (below 40% in each case) and a heavily split opposition vote (especially in Richmond).
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,789
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Post by iang on Jun 14, 2022 8:16:43 GMT
True, but in the case of Richmond, the split was between the Lib Dems in their "SLD" phase, and the continuing SDP
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Post by johnloony on Jun 14, 2022 11:29:03 GMT
True, but in the case of Richmond, the split was between the Lib Dems in their "SLD" phase, and the continuing SDP But the principle is the same, because it doesn’t matter which the two opposition parties are. Of course in Richmond it was fun because the SDP and SLD were more determined to defeat each other than the Conservative Party. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,703
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 14, 2022 13:01:09 GMT
The real point about Richmond 1989 is that the voters were far from sure which of the two were the best anti-Tory option. They weren't going for somebody they knew had little chance just for the hell of it as was suggested above might be the case with this byelection.
(in contrast, they knew very well that Labour weren't going to win and thus their vote was heavily squeezed)
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Post by michaelarden on Jun 14, 2022 13:35:59 GMT
It’s interesting that the consensus pretty much seems to be that the Lib Dems have this. Is it because of the similarities to North Shropshire (ultra safe Tory, leave voting seat where the Lib Dems start from 3rd)? I’m not disagreeing but on the face of it the Tories should really be holding this even though a drop in the vote and majority is inevitable I don't think many (serious) Tories or Lib Dems believe it's a done deal at all (and the Tories may even be favoured?), but its not really in either of our interests to air that - expectations management by the Lib Dems tends to become a self-fulfilling prophecy, while the Tories probably can't believe their luck that they would be able to present holding a seat with a 40% majority as some unqualified success. The only expectation management going on is from Lib Dems pretending this is anything other than a done deal. If they turned round and said it's going to be a five figure majority 10 days out then they would struggle to get help in the last few days. |
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