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Post by minionofmidas on Jun 16, 2022 21:30:19 GMT
Although surely most people who are going to vote in a by-election are political enough that they will already know who they're voting for? Won't most "late deciders" simply not vote I know somebody who remains undecided in the French legislative elections (french abroad, 7th constituency), also has a proxy vote for their sick nearly 90 year old mother, and actually bothered to vote in the first round splitting their two votes, only to see the two candidates they voted for reach the runoff. |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Jun 17, 2022 12:51:30 GMT
I would be astonished if it isn't already in the bag. Quite - and given around 40% of the total will have cast their votes already by post the Lib Dems know exactly how far in front they are. The 'just behind' message is for their activists to get down to Devon to drag out the rest of the vote. If they said they're 20% in front already how many would turn up? interesting snippet from the ConHome Lord Ashcroft focus group in Tiverton and Honiton:“ I had nine [leaflets] from the Lib Dems last week, all the same person, Richard Ford. If his face comes through my letterbox again… My dog doesn’t eat the post but now I wish he did” If the aim was to get Lib Dem activists to get busy in Devon, is this evidence that it's working? |
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Post by robert1 on Jun 17, 2022 14:07:19 GMT
interesting snippet from the ConHome Lord Ashcroft focus group in Tiverton and Honiton:“ I had nine [leaflets] from the Lib Dems last week, all the same person, Richard Ford. If his face comes through my letterbox again… My dog doesn’t eat the post but now I wish he did” If the aim was to get Lib Dem activists to get busy in Devon, is this evidence that it's working? As I think you know I am generally a fan of your postings. They are both informative and often humorous.
On this occasion you could/should have included the complimentary comments re the Tory candidate as well!
If you want to include the critical thoughts re Boris and Keir as well, go ahead.
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neilm
Non-Aligned
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Post by neilm on Jun 17, 2022 15:09:49 GMT
Quite - and given around 40% of the total will have cast their votes already by post the Lib Dems know exactly how far in front they are. The 'just behind' message is for their activists to get down to Devon to drag out the rest of the vote. If they said they're 20% in front already how many would turn up? interesting snippet from the ConHome Lord Ashcroft focus group in Tiverton and Honiton:“ I had nine [leaflets] from the Lib Dems last week, all the same person, Richard Ford. If his face comes through my letterbox again… My dog doesn’t eat the post but now I wish he did” If the aim was to get Lib Dem activists to get busy in Devon, is this evidence that it's working? Nine is excessive, I wonder how much they're spending. |
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Post by batman on Jun 17, 2022 15:40:16 GMT
In my experience, very few voters get sufficiently annoyed about excessive leafletting by a particular party to decide not to vote for that party. Mostly voters think that it makes that party look as if it's working hard (which it probably is)
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 17, 2022 15:41:56 GMT
interesting snippet from the ConHome Lord Ashcroft focus group in Tiverton and Honiton:“ I had nine [leaflets] from the Lib Dems last week, all the same person, Richard Ford. If his face comes through my letterbox again… My dog doesn’t eat the post but now I wish he did” If the aim was to get Lib Dem activists to get busy in Devon, is this evidence that it's working? Nine is excessive, I wonder how much they're spending. Hopefully £99,999 |
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
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Post by peterl on Jun 17, 2022 15:42:06 GMT
Nine is one less than I got from the Lib Dems at the last general election. If it can be remotely considered a target, they'll send you a small forest worth of literature.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 17, 2022 17:28:42 GMT
In my experience, very few voters get sufficiently annoyed about excessive leafletting by a particular party to decide not to vote for that party. Mostly voters think that it makes that party look as if it's working hard (which it probably is) Indeed. If loads of leaflets are counterproductive how come the Lib Dem by-election successes of recent decades have (as far as I am aware) always been largely based on floods of leaflets? |
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Post by andrewp on Jun 18, 2022 11:58:44 GMT
Matthew Parris, in his column in the Times today reports from Honiton. He obviously walked around with Richard Foord for an hour.
First of all he describes Honiton as having something of the red wall about it. Not a leafy Tory stronghold because their are no blue rinses, electric gates and long gravel drives. That is quite simply bonkers.
He describes Foord as intelligent and earnest, but a little reserved and a little clunky on the doorstep.
He thinks a Tory hold is underpriced.
He also asked Foord how they could possibly hold Tiverton and Honiton at a general election and cannot say that Foord had a good answer
The general thrust of the article though is that Parris thinks that as most plausible LD targets are Conservative seats, the Lib Dems need to prove that they a more decent and nicer version of the Conservative party. The headline is ‘ to win the Lib Dems must be nicer to Tories’. I think there’s a heavy personal slant in that as Parris is a former Tory who would like the Lib Dems to be what he describes. He thinks that the way to win Tory seats is to have a manifesto commitment to never join a Labour led government.
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 18, 2022 12:18:01 GMT
Matthew Parris, in his column in the Times today reports from Honiton. He obviously walked around with Richard Foord for an hour. First of all he describes Honiton as having something of the red wall about it. Not a leafy Tory stronghold because their are no blue rinses, electric gates and long gravel drives. That is quite simply bonkers. He describes Foord as intelligent and earnest, but a little reserved and a little clunky on the doorstep. He thinks a Tory hold is underpriced. He also asked Foord how they could possibly hold Tiverton and Honiton at a general election and cannot say that Foord had a good answer The general thrust of the article though is that Parris thinks that as most plausible LD targets are Conservative seats, the Lib Dems need to prove that they a more decent and nicer version of the Conservative party. The headline is ‘ to win the Lib Dems must be nicer to Tories’. I think there’s a heavy personal slant in that as Parris is a former Tory who would like the Lib Dems to be what he describes. He thinks that the way to win Tory seats is to have a manifesto commitment to never join a Labour led government. Yet the outcome of that might well be a majority Labour government! |
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Post by stodge on Jun 18, 2022 12:27:25 GMT
It's clear the Conservatives have woken up and realised this is a seat they can't afford to lose.
The "media" are helping out with slightly disparaging comments about Richard Foord (usually based on talking to a couple of Tory voters or activists). Obviously, the Conservatives have decided they needed an unassuming local female candidate and it's certainly an improvement on some of their recent offerings.
They've also started copying the LD by-election game of a nice apparently non-aligned "local newspaper" which just happens to back the local Conservative candidate and be full of pictures of her - about 30 years late but it's probably true what they say about imitation.
IF the LDs get this one over the line, it will be more of a success, I'd argue, than North Shropshire. The tide is slacker, the Conservatives less complacent.
The Conservatives are happy to lose Wakefield as that will be seen as a mid-term swing but to lose two by-elections on the same day will start putting the pressure back on the Prime Minister.
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Post by heslingtonian on Jun 18, 2022 22:13:09 GMT
Knowing Johnson's luck as a politician I now have a feeling the Conservatives may hold this by twenty votes after about five recounts.
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sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979
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Post by sirbenjamin on Jun 19, 2022 23:55:21 GMT
Why can't they be narrowly behind at the same point in each by-election they fight seriously? The last week is clearly critical in applying a squeeze message to the wavering supporters of other opposition parties. Just because the LibDems have been successful in persuading Labour and Green voters in the final week to support them doesn't mean that a two percent deficit at this point is 'bullshit'.
It's disingenuous bullshit and I fucking hate it.
The Lib Dems are strong favourites to win and have been for some time. When you're a favourite, playing a 'plucky underdog' line is either a deliberate lie or abject stupidity.
It's not just the LDs who are guilty of this. Chapter 16 of my forthcoming book about probability and luck goes into some detail about how Michael Gove was a massive cunt in this regard.
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Post by bigfatron on Jun 20, 2022 8:07:40 GMT
Why can't they be narrowly behind at the same point in each by-election they fight seriously? The last week is clearly critical in applying a squeeze message to the wavering supporters of other opposition parties. Just because the LibDems have been successful in persuading Labour and Green voters in the final week to support them doesn't mean that a two percent deficit at this point is 'bullshit'.
It's disingenuous bullshit and I fucking hate it.
The Lib Dems are strong favourites to win and have been for some time. When you're a favourite, playing a 'plucky underdog' line is either a deliberate lie or abject stupidity.
It's not just the LDs who are guilty of this. Chapter 16 of my forthcoming book about probability and luck goes into some detail about how Michael Gove was a massive cunt in this regard.
The LibDems are not, and never have been, strong favourites here - this is just bullshit of your own. Some objectivity would be useful here from both sides - Winning here would require the LibDems to overturn the largest majority ever in a UK by-election, in a campaign that the Tories are actually taking seriously for once (unlike North Shropshire or C&A) and also unlike Nth Shropshire a substantial minority of local voters seem to have some sympathy with the previous incumbent. Conversely, the Tories are in quite a mess (although better than six weeks ago), the LibDems are excellent in by-elections and have a history of upsets, and a chance to kick the governing party is seldom neglected by the British electorate. IMHO, putting aside party affiliations, the most likely outcome is a small (0-5%) Tory win, and I have placed a small wager accordingly... Any LibDem win is a triumph for them; that is undisputable. Any hold is a success for the Tories, and a hold by more than 5% is something for them to brag about IMHO. |
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Post by tonyhill on Jun 20, 2022 8:21:18 GMT
The people who have placed bets on the LibDems to win this seat are largely sheep following the herd after Chesham and Shropshire, not people who know anything much about politics or the situation on the ground. The 70% chance (or whatever it is today) of the LibDems winning this by-election is utterly ridiculous.
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Post by andrewp on Jun 20, 2022 8:36:27 GMT
It's disingenuous bullshit and I fucking hate it.
The Lib Dems are strong favourites to win and have been for some time. When you're a favourite, playing a 'plucky underdog' line is either a deliberate lie or abject stupidity.
It's not just the LDs who are guilty of this. Chapter 16 of my forthcoming book about probability and luck goes into some detail about how Michael Gove was a massive cunt in this regard.
The LibDems are not, and never have been, strong favourites here - this is just bullshit of your own. Some objectivity would be useful here from both sides - Winning here would require the LibDems to overturn the largest majority ever in a UK by-election, in a campaign that the Tories are actually taking seriously for once (unlike North Shropshire or C&A) and also unlike Nth Shropshire a substantial minority of local voters seem to have some sympathy with the previous incumbent. Conversely, the Tories are in quite a mess (although better than six weeks ago), the LibDems are excellent in by-elections and have a history of upsets, and a chance to kick the governing party is seldom neglected by the British electorate. IMHO, putting aside party affiliations, the most likely outcome is a small (0-5%) Tory win, and I have placed a small wager accordingly... Any LibDem win is a triumph for them; that is undisputable. Any hold is a success for the Tories, and a hold by more than 5% is something for them to brag about IMHO. Presumably because having a quick look at some porn Is something that far more ( the majority?) of them have done themselves where as benefiting from some lobbying is not. |
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Post by bigfatron on Jun 20, 2022 8:43:20 GMT
The LibDems are not, and never have been, strong favourites here - this is just bullshit of your own. Some objectivity would be useful here from both sides - Winning here would require the LibDems to overturn the largest majority ever in a UK by-election, in a campaign that the Tories are actually taking seriously for once (unlike North Shropshire or C&A) and also unlike Nth Shropshire a substantial minority of local voters seem to have some sympathy with the previous incumbent. Conversely, the Tories are in quite a mess (although better than six weeks ago), the LibDems are excellent in by-elections and have a history of upsets, and a chance to kick the governing party is seldom neglected by the British electorate. IMHO, putting aside party affiliations, the most likely outcome is a small (0-5%) Tory win, and I have placed a small wager accordingly... Any LibDem win is a triumph for them; that is undisputable. Any hold is a success for the Tories, and a hold by more than 5% is something for them to brag about IMHO. Presumably because having a quick look at some porn Is something that far more ( the majority?) of them have done themselves where as benefiting from some lobbying is not. And, by all accounts, he wasn't a bad constituency MP... which (bizarre as it sounds in the current febrile climate) still seems to count with some voters! |
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Post by aargauer on Jun 20, 2022 9:02:16 GMT
It's disingenuous bullshit and I fucking hate it.
The Lib Dems are strong favourites to win and have been for some time. When you're a favourite, playing a 'plucky underdog' line is either a deliberate lie or abject stupidity.
It's not just the LDs who are guilty of this. Chapter 16 of my forthcoming book about probability and luck goes into some detail about how Michael Gove was a massive cunt in this regard.
The LibDems are not, and never have been, strong favourites here - this is just bullshit of your own. Some objectivity would be useful here from both sides - Winning here would require the LibDems to overturn the largest majority ever in a UK by-election, in a campaign that the Tories are actually taking seriously for once (unlike North Shropshire or C&A) and also unlike Nth Shropshire a substantial minority of local voters seem to have some sympathy with the previous incumbent. Conversely, the Tories are in quite a mess (although better than six weeks ago), the LibDems are excellent in by-elections and have a history of upsets, and a chance to kick the governing party is seldom neglected by the British electorate. IMHO, putting aside party affiliations, the most likely outcome is a small (0-5%) Tory win, and I have placed a small wager accordingly... Any LibDem win is a triumph for them; that is undisputable. Any hold is a success for the Tories, and a hold by more than 5% is something for them to brag about IMHO. Well Ron, let's see. My instinct is a Lib Dem win by about 15-20%.Im not trying to engage in expectation management, just give a prediction of how it'll go. |
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Post by andrewp on Jun 20, 2022 9:07:39 GMT
The LibDems are not, and never have been, strong favourites here - this is just bullshit of your own. Some objectivity would be useful here from both sides - Winning here would require the LibDems to overturn the largest majority ever in a UK by-election, in a campaign that the Tories are actually taking seriously for once (unlike North Shropshire or C&A) and also unlike Nth Shropshire a substantial minority of local voters seem to have some sympathy with the previous incumbent. Conversely, the Tories are in quite a mess (although better than six weeks ago), the LibDems are excellent in by-elections and have a history of upsets, and a chance to kick the governing party is seldom neglected by the British electorate. IMHO, putting aside party affiliations, the most likely outcome is a small (0-5%) Tory win, and I have placed a small wager accordingly... Any LibDem win is a triumph for them; that is undisputable. Any hold is a success for the Tories, and a hold by more than 5% is something for them to brag about IMHO. Well Ron, let's see. My instinct is a Lib Dem win by about 15-20%.Im not trying to engage in expectation management, just give a prediction of how it'll go. I think you are both naturally cautious about your parties chances. I think the Lib Dems are favourites. As I’ve said before, I think apart from about 2006-16, the Lib Dems would have won a Tiverton by election at most points of a Conservative government in the last 50 years. I think the Lib Dems will win narrowly, but I think I would rate a big Lib Dem win and a Conservative hold as equally likely. |
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Post by phil156 on Jun 20, 2022 9:20:05 GMT
They of course are counting overnight result will be around 4-6AM
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