Tiverton and Honiton

[neilm]

Jun 3, 2022 13:55:30 GMT aargauer said:

Jun 3, 2022 13:19:26 GMT peterl said:

Personally, I find percentages the easiest!

I find the old fashioned way easier, just because its always been in place. It probably isn't for someone coming to it fresh.

Surprisingly it is, younger punters seem quite happy with it. What really would weird them out would be to show them moneyline or Malaysian prices.

[Crimson King]

Jun 3, 2022 19:50:38 GMT @boogieeck said:

Jun 3, 2022 14:54:47 GMT heslingtonian said:

I see the Lib Dem candidate has tested positive for Covid.

Only in Tiverton. In Honiton he tested negative for CoViD

It’s a two horse race, only the Lib Dems or Boris Johnston’s Coronavirus can win here!

[YL]

Let's explore a hypothetical here. If Johnson were to lose a Tory confidence vote before this by-election happens, or to resign as leader after narrowly winning one [1], how much would it change the likely result?

[1] No I don't believe he will actually do that, but I did say "hypothetical"

[YL]

On that topic here's some speculation by Patrick English which goes a little further and considers the possibility that the Tories might even have a new leader by polling day.

[woollyliberal]

Jun 4, 2022 6:43:50 GMT YL said:

Let's explore a hypothetical here. If Johnson were to lose a Tory confidence vote before this by-election happens, or to resign as leader after narrowly winning one [1], how much would it change the likely result?

[1] No I don't believe he will actually do that, but I did say "hypothetical"

It depends on whether the public see Boris as the Bad 'Un, or the whole of the cabinet as rotten. The government is Priti Patel, Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak etc, not just the PM. Boris may have been defeated in a confidence vote, but the cabinet he created is still in place. He personally didn't create things like the cost of living crisis, his useless team helped.

Even if Boris is defeated, we won't know who will replace him. To those who say no-one could be worse, I raise you Priti Patel. Boris gone is not the end game and so it may not affect the by-election as much as some might hope. The Tories have said for a while that there is no-one better than Boris. At first I dismissed it as loyalist hyperbole, but now I've come round to thinking that they actually believe it. They might still select a 'peripheral' figure in the search for someone good but it would happen too late for the by-elections.

Boris winning the confidence vote, even narrowly, would be damning for the Tories. The whole world knows that Boris is spent. The parliamentary party backing the PM would tie the whole party to the sinking millstone that is Boris Johnson.

[stb12]

With the confidence vote is this now a goner for the Tories as well? Wakefield was always going to be

[greenhert]

Jun 7, 2022 20:49:48 GMT stb12 said:

With the confidence vote is this now a goner for the Tories as well? Wakefield was always going to be

Almost certainly, yes, despite the huge current majority (24,239 over Labour).

[samdwebber]

[WestCountryRadical]

The Tories just can't get it right. They choose a candidate from outside and people say "he doesn't know the area". They choose a local candidate and people say "she's no good"

Tory members won’t vote for Boris Johnson in crunch Tiverton and Honiton by-election

Nick Sleeman, a life long Tory voter and bar manager at the Honiton Conservative Club said he will be voting for the Liberal Democrats in the forthcoming by-election

“I don’t think I’d recognise the new candidate, Helen thingy, if she walked past me. She’s made no effort with the [Conservative] Club. We’ve had no leaflets or posters delivered and as far as I can see the party is doing its best to hide her from the voters because its scared of what she might actually say.”

[bsjmcr]

Jun 7, 2022 22:07:57 GMT WestCountryRadical said:

The Tories just can't get it right. They choose a candidate from outside and people say "he doesn't know the area". They choose a local candidate and people say "she's no good"

Tory members won’t vote for Boris Johnson in crunch Tiverton and Honiton by-election

Nick Sleeman, a life long Tory voter and bar manager at the Honiton Conservative Club said he will be voting for the Liberal Democrats in the forthcoming by-election

“I don’t think I’d recognise the new candidate, Helen thingy, if she walked past me. She’s made no effort with the [Conservative] Club. We’ve had no leaflets or posters delivered and as far as I can see the party is doing its best to hide her from the voters because its scared of what she might actually say.”

That is pretty bad, given that the people they spoke to are in her home patch! I remarked much earlier on in this thread that perhaps she might not go down as well/be as visible in Tiverton given it is a large, sprawling constituency, but to be that invisible/unpopular in one’s home patch takes some doing. Perhaps the ‘baggage’ of the status of being a former deputy mayor isn’t always positive - simply trading off the title may be a negative if people haven’t heard of you or your achievements for the area. I can imagine some thinking ‘she was our deputy mayor? What did she ever do for us then that would make her a good MP?’ 

Granted this is just a tiny selection of ‘vox pops’, but I’d never expect to see several negative comments in such a short article on a new candidate, not even an incumbent. I don’t seem to recall even as much around Neil thingy in North Shropshire, that was probably more people on this forum/Twitter making fun of the fact he didn’t know which village he was in. 

[polupolu]

I hope I am wrong, but I still think winning this will be a big stretch for us.
There are always plenty of dyed-in-the-wool Tory voters; and I can imagine many of them who will keep very quiet, hold their noses, and vote Tory once more.

[YL]

Jun 8, 2022 10:38:13 GMT polupolu said:

I hope I am wrong, but I still think winning this will be a big stretch for us.
There are always plenty of dyed-in-the-wool Tory voters; and I can imagine many of them who will keep very quiet, hold their noses, and vote Tory once more.

I understand caution, but the track record of Liberal (Democrat) by-election challenges to Tory governments suggests otherwise.

[nodealbrexiteer]

Jun 8, 2022 10:38:13 GMT polupolu said:

I hope I am wrong, but I still think winning this will be a big stretch for us.
There are always plenty of dyed-in-the-wool Tory voters; and I can imagine many of them who will keep very quiet, hold their noses, and vote Tory once more.

Hopefully they see it as a cost free vote

[cogload]

Yeah yeah bollocks...

[matureleft]

Jun 8, 2022 11:41:21 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

Jun 8, 2022 10:38:13 GMT polupolu said:

I hope I am wrong, but I still think winning this will be a big stretch for us.
There are always plenty of dyed-in-the-wool Tory voters; and I can imagine many of them who will keep very quiet, hold their noses, and vote Tory once more.

Hopefully they see it as a cost free vote

Which it is. That's the point of by-elections. They change little of substance but send a useful message. 

[Khunanup]

Jun 8, 2022 11:41:21 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

Jun 8, 2022 10:38:13 GMT polupolu said:

I hope I am wrong, but I still think winning this will be a big stretch for us.
There are always plenty of dyed-in-the-wool Tory voters; and I can imagine many of them who will keep very quiet, hold their noses, and vote Tory once more.

Hopefully they see it as a cost free vote

If indeed they bother voting at all...

[andrewp]

Jun 8, 2022 11:46:41 GMT cogload said:

Yeah yeah bollocks...

That’s about what I expect.

[gwynthegriff]

Jun 7, 2022 22:39:27 GMT bsjmcr said:

Jun 7, 2022 22:07:57 GMT WestCountryRadical said:

The Tories just can't get it right. They choose a candidate from outside and people say "he doesn't know the area". They choose a local candidate and people say "she's no good"

Tory members won’t vote for Boris Johnson in crunch Tiverton and Honiton by-election

Nick Sleeman, a life long Tory voter and bar manager at the Honiton Conservative Club said he will be voting for the Liberal Democrats in the forthcoming by-election

“I don’t think I’d recognise the new candidate, Helen thingy, if she walked past me. She’s made no effort with the [Conservative] Club. We’ve had no leaflets or posters delivered and as far as I can see the party is doing its best to hide her from the voters because its scared of what she might actually say.”

That is pretty bad, given that the people they spoke to are in her home patch! I remarked much earlier on in this thread that perhaps she might not go down as well/be as visible in Tiverton given it is a large, sprawling constituency, but to be that invisible/unpopular in one’s home patch takes some doing. Perhaps the ‘baggage’ of the status of being a former deputy mayor isn’t always positive - simply trading off the title may be a negative if people haven’t heard of you or your achievements for the area. I can imagine some thinking ‘she was our deputy mayor? What did she ever do for us then that would make her a good MP?’ 

Granted this is just a tiny selection of ‘vox pops’, but I’d never expect to see several negative comments in such a short article on a new candidate, not even an incumbent. I don’t seem to recall even as much around Neil thingy in North Shropshire, that was probably more people on this forum/Twitter making fun of the fact he didn’t know which village he was in. 

Surely being a Deputy Mayor is simply "available to do the functions the Mayor can't fit in or doesn't want to attend" ?

As a distinction it ranks marginally below Chairman of the local Rotary and just above former Milk Monitor at school.

[Merseymike]

Perhaps it is more that people have made a decision that they are not going to vote for a particular party, and then search for a reason not to do so.
The reasons given to journalists are often 1) the party leader, or 2) the local candidate, simply because that's an easy thing to pick on and doesn't involve any explanation related to specific policies. They are very often not really an issue when it comes to a by-election.

[grahammurray]

Jun 8, 2022 12:28:30 GMT andrewp said:

Jun 8, 2022 11:46:41 GMT cogload said:

Yeah yeah bollocks...

That’s about what I expect.

As if Lembit would be trusted with the data anyway.