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Post by tonyhill on Jun 1, 2022 12:24:36 GMT
On the other hand everyone is capable of changing their views - look at Richard Cromwell. And you are more likely to change your views if you are prepared to engage politely with people on a forum like this one than if you confine your on-line presence to chat rooms wholly frequented by people with unpleasant political views.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,715
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 1, 2022 12:45:26 GMT
On the other hand everyone is capable of changing their views - look at Richard Cromwell. And you are more likely to change your views if you are prepared to engage politely with people on a forum like this one than if you confine your on-line presence to chat rooms wholly frequented by people with unpleasant political views. Yes, that can certainly be the case. I seriously doubt it was ever feasible with the poster in question, though. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,954
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Post by Khunanup on Jun 1, 2022 14:06:56 GMT
You see, if he wasn't a self professed fascist (given away by his username that just about no-one got when he first started posting, he was unfortunate that one or two of us got the in-'joke' straight away) one might have thought that that the poster was trying to make a post modern point or just being tasteless. But having a picture of Lee Rigby's killer, knife in hand, with that slogan posted by a fascist, damn right I thought it was offensive because it coloured every contribution that he made, dripped with irony that he was even posting on a forum that people like him would ban if in power and many of us would be killed or imprisoned if people like him got where they want to be. All o that might be true, I probably would not like him much, but it still requires an uneven application of judgement between far right and far left. And come to that, the curious new phenomenon, the far centre. "people like him would ban if in power and many of us would be killed or imprisoned if people like him got where they want to be." That's a bit of an assumption. You may be right. But then you may be wrong. And it may well be that many others on the Forum if they were in power, would show some fairly totalitarian tendencies. One reason I am so prissy about the presumption of innocence, taking people at their word and civil liberties is that I am well aware of what a dick I would be if given unfettered power. Now I used to work to the assumption that centrists, people who called themselves liberals, would be better than that, but the reaction of supposed liberals to firstly Brexit and secondly CoViD has genuinely shaken me. Now, they are making some belated positive noises post covid about Covid. It just seems to me to be intellectually inconsistent to on the one hand assume that the notionally far right (the race identity left more often than not) would behave worse than they claim if in power, while simultaneously appearing to assume that the far left would for the first time in history behave better than they claim they will. Look, I don't think the white race identitarians have much of sense to say on the subject of immigration, but firstly they still have the right to say it, and secondly, they are not exactly being honestly challenged when supposedly progressive parties have also nothing of any note, sensible or otherwise to say on the subject, other than "Thats wacist" My own view on the subject, which you have heard often enough, is that I am broadly supportive of immigration with no upper limit on numbers, but some fairly strict quality thresholds that unless the economy was booming would in practice amount to limits. And I am willing to build the required housing all over the green belt regardless of the wishes of the "Liberal Democrat Focus Delivery team, working all the year-round to prevent homes being built". And I am not bothered about being called racist, because I actually know what race means and it's not synonymous with culture. It might help if you don't erect straw men to argue against me, alluding to double standards that do not exist. I am equally scathing of the far left, and authoritarian governments who wish to control and suppress and kill their people for no other reason than power from wherever they are on the political spectrum are diabolical. It's the attacking of the other, the hatred of people for what they are using labels that I find abhorrent, a trait that infects far left and far right particularly (mostly monetary/class and race/nationality/religion respectively) but, in this polarised time, has infected some in the political centre as well (Remain/Brexiteer) whereas as a Liberal, this othering is nothing but destructive and creates a response which can just spiral. In the case in point, at no time did that poster hide what they were, it was like a massive troll with the reasonable posts then giving way occasionally to some pretty awful stuff (while having that vile avatar picture/slogan). I bet he was laughing his arse off. The point is he could say what he liked, and I believe in that freedom, but I had every right to find certain things offensive, and indeed as a Liberal I want him to be able to express that freely because, unlike fascists and other authoritarians I don't want The State to arrest and imprison people just for stating an opinion. |
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Post by BossMan on Jun 1, 2022 19:03:33 GMT
Just to point out that I've been noticing some fairly substantial topic drift in a few threads. As enlightening as it may be to dredge up the legacies of former members, I must nevertheless question the relevance of such digression to the impending by-election in Tiverton and Honiton.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,954
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Post by Khunanup on Jun 1, 2022 19:19:05 GMT
Just to point out that I've been noticing some fairly substantial topic drift in a few threads. As enlightening as it may be to dredge up the legacies of former members, I must nevertheless question the relevance of such digression to the impending by-election in Tiverton and Honiton. I think it says more about the relative dullness of this by-election campaign. Well dull in being entirely predictable. Anyway, thread drift and it snapping back to topic has been a joy of this site before it even existed (ie the predecessors) so you're fighting a battle that no-one else has managed to win. Just saying like... |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 1, 2022 19:24:50 GMT
The swing which happened in Shropshire North, if applied to Tiverton & Honiton: LD 52% Con 29% Lab 7% The swing which happened in Chesham & Amersham, if applied to Tiverton & Honiton: LD 45% Con 40% Lab 8% I predict: LD 50% Con 34% Lab 9% Now I think Lib Dem will be way more than 52% |
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Post by greenhert on Jun 1, 2022 21:19:51 GMT
According to what I have seen on Twitter, latest odds on the Liberal Democrats winning this by-election are as high as 2/7; a lot of the other relevant Tweets relate to tactical voting and progressive alliances.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,134
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Post by cogload on Jun 2, 2022 18:20:43 GMT
The journalist John Sweeney was out and about canvassing for the LD's here today. In-between shifts in Kyiv.
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Jun 2, 2022 19:06:13 GMT
According to what I have seen on Twitter, latest odds on the Liberal Democrats winning this by-election are as high as 2/7; a lot of the other relevant Tweets relate to tactical voting and progressive alliances. Best price 2/9 now. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 3, 2022 0:39:32 GMT
According to what I have seen on Twitter, latest odds on the Liberal Democrats winning this by-election are as high as 2/7; a lot of the other relevant Tweets relate to tactical voting and progressive alliances. If it’s only 2/7, that’s not what I would call “as high as”. That’s unbelievably and spectacularly low. |
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Post by markgoodair on Jun 3, 2022 3:04:54 GMT
According to what I have seen on Twitter, latest odds on the Liberal Democrats winning this by-election are as high as 2/7; a lot of the other relevant Tweets relate to tactical voting and progressive alliances. If it’s only 2/7, that’s not what I would call “as high as”. That’s unbelievably and spectacularly low. But it's far higher than Labours 1/14 in Wakefield. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 3, 2022 9:26:12 GMT
If it’s only 2/7, that’s not what I would call “as high as”. That’s unbelievably and spectacularly low. But it's far higher than Labours 1/14 in Wakefield. No it isn’t. 1/14 is 93%, which is therefore higher than 2/7, which is only 78%. If the odds were properly reflecting the probabilities, they would both be even higher on something like 1/33 or 97%. |
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Post by Wisconsin on Jun 3, 2022 10:16:41 GMT
God I hate traditional odds. I’m disappointed the EU never banned them.
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Jun 3, 2022 11:28:51 GMT
God I hate traditional odds. I’m disappointed the EU never banned them. I also prefer decimal, less scope for bookies to rip you off and the overround is clear. |
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Post by greenhert on Jun 3, 2022 11:43:25 GMT
According to what I have seen on Twitter, latest odds on the Liberal Democrats winning this by-election are as high as 2/7; a lot of the other relevant Tweets relate to tactical voting and progressive alliances. If it’s only 2/7, that’s not what I would call “as high as”. That’s unbelievably and spectacularly low. Given that the Liberal Democrats finished third in Tiverton & Honiton in 2019 (polling 14.8%) and the Conservative majority in Tiverton & Honiton being 24,239 over Labour, 2/7 are decent odds in those circumstances. |
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Jun 3, 2022 13:10:12 GMT
But it's far higher than Labours 1/14 in Wakefield. No it isn’t. 1/14 is 93%, which is therefore higher than 2/7, which is only 78%. If the odds were properly reflecting the probabilities, they would both be even higher on something like 1/33 or 97%. But that isn't how odds work. 2/7 is higher than 1/14 because it is about return not probability. |
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,466 
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Post by peterl on Jun 3, 2022 13:19:26 GMT
Personally, I find percentages the easiest!
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Post by minionofmidas on Jun 3, 2022 13:34:20 GMT
No it isn’t. 1/14 is 93%, which is therefore higher than 2/7, which is only 78%. If the odds were properly reflecting the probabilities, they would both be even higher on something like 1/33 or 97%. But that isn't how odds work. 2/7 is higher than 1/14 because it is about return not probability. Correct. High odds are long odds. Though in this case it might make more sense to call them "not quite as short" as neither of these are high odds. |
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Post by aargauer on Jun 3, 2022 13:55:30 GMT
Personally, I find percentages the easiest! I find the old fashioned way easier, just because its always been in place. It probably isn't for someone coming to it fresh. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Jun 3, 2022 14:54:47 GMT
I see the Lib Dem candidate has tested positive for Covid.
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