Tiverton and Honiton

[The Bishop]

May 20, 2022 8:57:38 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

"blue wall" 

Now your side knows what its like

[cogload]

Cheeky that the "reveal" was in the Telegraph though...

[peterl]

Very smart choice and should go down very well with disaffected Tory voters in rural Devon. My current prediction is the Lib Dems will pull it off by a modest but not tiny majority (maybe 1,000-2,000).

[evergreenadam]

May 20, 2022 8:52:55 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

Write up from the Telegraph (£)

The Liberal Democrats have chosen a former Army Major to fight an upcoming “blue wall” by-election, boasting that they are “planting our tanks firmly on the Tories’ lawn”.

Richard Foord, a 44-year-old veteran who trained at Sandhurst and won medals in Iraq and the Balkans, will fight the Tiverton and Honiton by-election next month, following the resignation of Neil Parish.

Mr Parish, the former Tory MP, admitted watching pornography in the House of Commons and resigned his seat last month after he was named as the “porn MP” by The Telegraph.

Even though Mr Parish held a majority of 24,000 votes, the scandal and a recent shift of Conservative voters towards the Liberal Democrats mean the seat is now considered marginal.

Mr Foord is described by party sources as a “classical liberal” who was first inspired to join the Liberal Democrats under the leadership of Paddy Ashdown.

It is hoped his support for lower taxes and his military background could entice Conservative voters to switch parties.

The Liberal Democrat campaign in the constituency is expected to focus on policy areas on which the Conservatives are weak in southern seats, including tax increases and protections for “the rural way of life”.

A Conservative Party source told The Telegraph the seat is likely to fall to the Liberal Democrats, piling pressure on Boris Johnson to shore up support in “blue wall” areas rather than focussing solely on “red wall” seats in the north of England.

Tory strategists also anticipate difficulties persuading London-based activists to campaign in Tiverton and Honiton, because the Devon constituency is too far away.

Activists are understood to have told party bosses they would prefer to campaign in Wakefield, where a by-election is happening on the same day, because it is easier to reach from the capital.

The by-elections will both take place on June 23, the six-year anniversary of the UK’s Brexit referendum. They will be seen as a key electoral test for Mr Johnson in advance of the next general election.

Mr Foord told The Telegraph: “Boris Johnson’s Conservatives are taking rural communities in Devon for granted.

“Towns and villages across the constituency are being hit hard by unfair tax hikes and receiving no help with spiralling energy bills and rising prices at the fuel pump.”

A Liberal Democrat source said the party was hoping to repeat its success at the North Shropshire by-election last year, where Helen Morgan unseated the Conservatives following the resignation of Owen Paterson.

“We are planting our tanks firmly on the Tories’ lawn,” the source said.

“Just like in North Shropshire, many lifelong Conservative voters in Devon feel the party no longer represents them and that it’s time for a change.”

How long have the locals been saying that the Waterloo to Exeter railway is in need of an upgrade!

[bsjmcr]

May 20, 2022 14:18:25 GMT peterl said:

Very smart choice and should go down very well with disaffected Tory voters in rural Devon. My current prediction is the Lib Dems will pull it off by a modest but not tiny majority (maybe 1,000-2,000).

Would be interesting to see if Parish stands as an independent and hoovers up the farmer vote, which could only help the Lib Dems?

If he wanted to go down in the history books a bit more positively, he could stand on an ‘honesty’ platform and should do an anti-Johnson campaign out of the blue… “at least I told the truth… at least I fell on my sword… I admitted wrongdoing… unlike the PM!”. That may be too much to expect from a former loyal Tory “with one of the best reputations… or did have”. 

Am I right in thinking in his case as he resigned himself, there is no financial benefit (and potentially a lost deposit!) of him standing again, no ‘severance pay’ - which those who stood again and lose get, as many independents did last time? 

[andrewp]

Helen Hurford selected by the Conservatives.

[evergreenadam]

May 22, 2022 15:11:52 GMT andrewp said:

Helen Hurford selected by the Conservatives.

Sounds like a good choice, Westminster could do with some sensible disciplined people at the moment.

[andrewp]

May 22, 2022 17:06:33 GMT evergreenadam said:

May 22, 2022 15:11:52 GMT andrewp said:

Helen Hurford selected by the Conservatives.

Sounds like a good choice, Westminster could do with some sensible disciplined people at the moment.

She’s the deputy mayor of Honiton too. Sounds like she ticks all the ideal boxes - female, local, ex teacher.

[Ports]

Given the quality of some other first-term ex-teacher Conservative MPs, this can only be an improvement.

[neilm]

May 22, 2022 17:21:26 GMT Ports said:

Given the quality of some other first-term ex-teacher Conservative MPs, this can only be an improvement.

Anyone in mind?

[Ports]

May 22, 2022 18:49:25 GMT neilm said:

May 22, 2022 17:21:26 GMT Ports said:

Given the quality of some other first-term ex-teacher Conservative MPs, this can only be an improvement.

Anyone in mind?

The member for Stoke on Trent North, for one. And also his colleague from Bassetlaw. Whilst they might have different views to me, it is more that they are... not the best, especially the former.

[cogload]

It seems like the Tories have absorbed their lessons from elsewhere. This is going to be an interesting by election. I know the bookies have us a favourites but it is a mountain to climb.

[woollyliberal]

May 22, 2022 19:51:24 GMT cogload said:

It seems like the Tories have absorbed their lessons from elsewhere. This is going to be an interesting by election. I know the bookies have us a favourites but it is a mountain to climb.

We won Chesham and Shropshire because the Tories were asleep. They're very much not this time. Punters think we will win this one because we won the other two. My feeling is that we'll fall just short. Somerton and Frome on the other hand is one we'll win. 3 our of 4 isn't bad.

[bsjmcr]

May 22, 2022 19:06:49 GMT Ports said:

May 22, 2022 18:49:25 GMT neilm said:

Anyone in mind?

The member for Stoke on Trent North, for one. And also his colleague from Bassetlaw. Whilst they might have different views to me, it is more that they are... not the best, especially the former.

Feel sorry for their former students. They certainly don’t represent teachers and would probably be shunned by their former profession, I’m sure Tory-voting state school teachers will be rare. Similarly, the few former NHS workers in the Conservative party are also odd, the member for Crewe and Nantwich is particularly annoying and really belongs in the same category as the above two.

[aargauer]

May 22, 2022 21:22:32 GMT bsjmcr said:

May 22, 2022 19:06:49 GMT Ports said:

The member for Stoke on Trent North, for one. And also his colleague from Bassetlaw. Whilst they might have different views to me, it is more that they are... not the best, especially the former.

Feel sorry for their former students. They certainly don’t represent teachers and would probably be shunned by their former profession, I’m sure Tory-voting state school teachers will be rare. Similarly, the few former NHS workers in the Conservative party are also odd, the member for Crewe and Nantwich is particularly annoying and really belongs in the same category as the above two.

You feel sorry for their students? Why?

[neilm]

May 22, 2022 21:22:32 GMT bsjmcr said:

May 22, 2022 19:06:49 GMT Ports said:

The member for Stoke on Trent North, for one. And also his colleague from Bassetlaw. Whilst they might have different views to me, it is more that they are... not the best, especially the former.

Feel sorry for their former students. They certainly don’t represent teachers and would probably be shunned by their former profession, I’m sure Tory-voting state school teachers will be rare. Similarly, the few former NHS workers in the Conservative party are also odd, the member for Crewe and Nantwich is particularly annoying and really belongs in the same category as the above two.

Until 1992, most teachers voted Conservative.

[heslingtonian]

May 22, 2022 21:22:32 GMT bsjmcr said:

May 22, 2022 19:06:49 GMT Ports said:

The member for Stoke on Trent North, for one. And also his colleague from Bassetlaw. Whilst they might have different views to me, it is more that they are... not the best, especially the former.

Feel sorry for their former students. They certainly don’t represent teachers and would probably be shunned by their former profession, I’m sure Tory-voting state school teachers will be rare. Similarly, the few former NHS workers in the Conservative party are also odd, the member for Crewe and Nantwich is particularly annoying and really belongs in the same category as the above two.

Those two are spiritually more UKIP than traditional Conservatives.

[woollyliberal]

May 23, 2022 5:09:33 GMT heslingtonian said:

May 22, 2022 21:22:32 GMT bsjmcr said:

Feel sorry for their former students. They certainly don’t represent teachers and would probably be shunned by their former profession, I’m sure Tory-voting state school teachers will be rare. Similarly, the few former NHS workers in the Conservative party are also odd, the member for Crewe and Nantwich is particularly annoying and really belongs in the same category as the above two.

Those two are spiritually more UKIP than traditional Conservatives.

As, collectively, are the current cabinet

[neilm]

May 23, 2022 7:15:39 GMT woollyliberal said:

May 23, 2022 5:09:33 GMT heslingtonian said:

Those two are spiritually more UKIP than traditional Conservatives.

As, collectively, are the current cabinet

I'm not really sure that is the case. A lot of them seem to have no ideological centre at all.

[woollyliberal]

May 23, 2022 7:21:51 GMT neilm said:

May 23, 2022 7:15:39 GMT woollyliberal said:

As, collectively, are the current cabinet

I'm not really sure that is the case. A lot of them seem to have no ideological centre at all.

I was thinking of outcomes rather than any beliefs that might drive outcomes.

I've been contemplating the accusation that the current government is fascist. People who make those accusations cite actions by the current lot that do look quite fascist. Reading up on what fascism is and isn't, I've seen several sources that say fascists believe in this or that. Boris doesn't believe, except in having the top job. Government actions seem like tactics rather than beliefs, so I conclude that they're not fascist, they just do some of the same things.

On Kipperness though, to be in the current cabinet you have to be a true Brexit believer. You have to be a full blooded right winger with hints of little Englander. Individually they might not be model UKIPers but collectively, they do just what I'd imagine a UKIP cabinet would do.