Tiverton and Honiton

[heslingtonian]

May 15, 2022 18:09:54 GMT batman said:

May 15, 2022 16:28:11 GMT gwynthegriff said:

The Ashfield-Grimsby by-elections were a powerful illustration that there's something to it - marginal Grimsby (where the MP had died) was held; (then) safe Ashfield (where the MP had resigned for a cushy job at the EU) was lost.

Chesham & Amersham rather clouds the idea.

so did Eastbourne

There's also the 1986 example of Ryedale (where the sitting MP died) and West Derbyshire (where Matthew Parris resigned to present a TV programme) which had similar 1983 majorities and were held on the same day. The Conservatives lost Ryedale while West Derbyshire was (just) retained. Parris has mentioned this several times in his books and columns.

[johnloony]

May 16, 2022 11:03:54 GMT heslingtonian said:

May 15, 2022 18:09:54 GMT batman said:

so did Eastbourne

There's also the 1986 example of Ryedale (where the sitting MP died) and West Derbyshire (where Matthew Parris resigned to present a TV programme) which had similar 1983 majorities and were held on the same day. The Conservatives lost Ryedale while West Derbyshire was (just) retained. Parris has mentioned this several times in his books and columns.

On the day of those by-elections, the results were expected to be the other way round - Con hold Ryedale and LD gain Derbyshire West. I remember going to bed at about 3am after they had already had 1 recount and decided to do a second. The result for Derbyshire West (a Conservative majority of 100) was declared at 6:30 after 3 recounts.

[Merseymike]

May 15, 2022 18:09:54 GMT batman said:

May 15, 2022 16:28:11 GMT gwynthegriff said:

The Ashfield-Grimsby by-elections were a powerful illustration that there's something to it - marginal Grimsby (where the MP had died) was held; (then) safe Ashfield (where the MP had resigned for a cushy job at the EU) was lost.

Chesham & Amersham rather clouds the idea.

so did Eastbourne

Eastbourne is a good example of a Tory candidate being chosen who didn't go down well - they picked a notoriously bad-tempered former MP, Richard Hickmet, who wasn't thought to be a good choice.

The Tory right are quite keen to get Lord Frost selected, but it would seem odd to pick someone who walked out of government for a by election.

[batman]

Apparently there is a bit of a Greek Cypriot community in Eastbourne, and Hickmet being a supporter of Turkish North Cyprus (he has Turkish heritage) was supposed to have gone down badly in that community. But how many of that small community would have voted Conservative in the first place isn't easy to say.

Re the by-elections in W Derbyshire & Ryedale, I recall that there was an exit poll in the former which put the Liberals ahead, only for the votes to be counted & a different story to be told.

[cogload]

[Ron Swanson]

Clearly not confident of retaining either, so get all the bad news buried in one day?

[andrewp]

May 16, 2022 17:16:30 GMT Ron Swanson said:

Clearly not confident of retaining either, so get all the bad news buried in one day?

Undoubtedly. Keep it to 10 minutes combined on the news and 2 pages in the newspaper. Not 10 minutes each and 4 pages.

[woollyliberal]

May 16, 2022 17:16:30 GMT Ron Swanson said:

Clearly not confident of retaining either, so get all the bad news buried in one day?

More likely that they're both vacant and they couldn't think of a reason to call one but not the other.

[heslingtonian]

May 16, 2022 11:42:34 GMT Merseymike said:

May 15, 2022 18:09:54 GMT batman said:

so did Eastbourne

Eastbourne is a good example of a Tory candidate being chosen who didn't go down well - they picked a notoriously bad-tempered former MP, Richard Hickmet, who wasn't thought to be a good choice.

The Tory right are quite keen to get Lord Frost selected, but it would seem odd to pick someone who walked out of government for a by election.

In my view they would be better off picking Richard Hickmet (who still appears to be practicing at the Bar incidentally) or practically anyone else than Lord Frost.

[Deleted]

Surely "let's wait until the court case is completely finished would have been a plausible excuse to delay Wakefield?

And surely they'd rather have one defend at a time against two opposition parties running some sort of campaign rather two at a time against a much more united opposition?

[neilm]

May 16, 2022 11:07:34 GMT johnloony said:

May 16, 2022 11:03:54 GMT heslingtonian said:

There's also the 1986 example of Ryedale (where the sitting MP died) and West Derbyshire (where Matthew Parris resigned to present a TV programme) which had similar 1983 majorities and were held on the same day. The Conservatives lost Ryedale while West Derbyshire was (just) retained. Parris has mentioned this several times in his books and columns.

On the day of those by-elections, the results were expected to be the other way round - Con hold Ryedale and LD gain Derbyshire West. I remember going to bed at about 3am after they had already had 1 recount and decided to do a second. The result for Derbyshire West (a Conservative majority of 100) was declared at 6:30 after 3 recounts.

That would have been an unexpected victory.

[YL]

[YL]

As far as I can tell Reform UK are the only party to have announced a candidate here yet, less than a week before close of nominations (Wednesday 25th at 4pm).

[greenhert]

Notice of election: www.middevon.gov.uk/your-council/voting-elections/2022-elections/notice-of-election-tiverton-and-honiton-constituency/

[BucksDucks]

Lib Dems select Richard Foord as their candidate.

[cogload]

Unlike C&A the local Tories aren't asleep here....

[LDCaerdydd]

Write up from the Telegraph (£)

The Liberal Democrats have chosen a former Army Major to fight an upcoming “blue wall” by-election, boasting that they are “planting our tanks firmly on the Tories’ lawn”.

Richard Foord, a 44-year-old veteran who trained at Sandhurst and won medals in Iraq and the Balkans, will fight the Tiverton and Honiton by-election next month, following the resignation of Neil Parish.

Mr Parish, the former Tory MP, admitted watching pornography in the House of Commons and resigned his seat last month after he was named as the “porn MP” by The Telegraph.

Even though Mr Parish held a majority of 24,000 votes, the scandal and a recent shift of Conservative voters towards the Liberal Democrats mean the seat is now considered marginal.

Mr Foord is described by party sources as a “classical liberal” who was first inspired to join the Liberal Democrats under the leadership of Paddy Ashdown.

It is hoped his support for lower taxes and his military background could entice Conservative voters to switch parties.

The Liberal Democrat campaign in the constituency is expected to focus on policy areas on which the Conservatives are weak in southern seats, including tax increases and protections for “the rural way of life”.

A Conservative Party source told The Telegraph the seat is likely to fall to the Liberal Democrats, piling pressure on Boris Johnson to shore up support in “blue wall” areas rather than focussing solely on “red wall” seats in the north of England.

Tory strategists also anticipate difficulties persuading London-based activists to campaign in Tiverton and Honiton, because the Devon constituency is too far away.

Activists are understood to have told party bosses they would prefer to campaign in Wakefield, where a by-election is happening on the same day, because it is easier to reach from the capital.

The by-elections will both take place on June 23, the six-year anniversary of the UK’s Brexit referendum. They will be seen as a key electoral test for Mr Johnson in advance of the next general election.

Mr Foord told The Telegraph: “Boris Johnson’s Conservatives are taking rural communities in Devon for granted.

“Towns and villages across the constituency are being hit hard by unfair tax hikes and receiving no help with spiralling energy bills and rising prices at the fuel pump.”

A Liberal Democrat source said the party was hoping to repeat its success at the North Shropshire by-election last year, where Helen Morgan unseated the Conservatives following the resignation of Owen Paterson.

“We are planting our tanks firmly on the Tories’ lawn,” the source said.

“Just like in North Shropshire, many lifelong Conservative voters in Devon feel the party no longer represents them and that it’s time for a change.”

[Pete Whitehead]

"blue wall" 

[andrewp]

Sounds like the right candidate. Not a Layla or a Wera.

[WestCountryRadical]

He lives in Uffculme in the middle of the constituency and fought Lower Culm ward at the 2019 district elections. Originally from Yatton in North Somerset and was parliamentary candidate for North Somerset in 2017.