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Post by bigfatron on May 15, 2022 15:09:46 GMT
Let’s face it, in a country that has Johnson, Raab and Rees-Mogg in senior positions of authority, the bar of what constitutes ‘embarrassing’ amongst our political class has been set at a historic high, and none of the afore-mentioned women come remotely close to it.
It’s just a way of saying you don’t like them - similar to how ‘woke’ is now the go to designation for any social trend right wingers don’t like…
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stodge
Non-Aligned
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Post by stodge on May 15, 2022 15:19:31 GMT
You're talking about "embarrassments" in a thread about a Conservative MP who was watching pornography in the Commons chamber. That's the very definition of "embarrassment", wouldn't you think? You may not like Layla Moran or Wera Hobhouse and that's your right but it's not in the same league... Not in the same league or of the same type, but also irrelevant to the specific post I was replying to. Which seemed to be a crude dig at "rich Remainers" (whoever they may be) and the MPs they elect. Nearly six years on and we're still promoting division even after the Referendum was meant to unite us all. It seems anyone who had the temerity not to vote Leave in 2016 is forever to be tainted by that. |
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Post by andrew111 on May 15, 2022 15:54:55 GMT
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 15, 2022 16:03:55 GMT
Good we did exactly the same thing in North Shropshire.
(The Conservatives have started campaigning too)
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on May 15, 2022 16:07:07 GMT
There was often a theory (and I'm not sure it would stand up to proper examination tbf) that a defence was easier if the MP had died as opposed to resigned. Maybe the Sidcup / N Shrops results bear that out. If so, that adds to the Tory problems in that these two by elections are more than just a "normal" resignation. Perhaps the local Tories think they would benefit if the incumbent stood as that would make it easier for them to distance themselves from him?
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Post by gwynthegriff on May 15, 2022 16:23:01 GMT
In other news - Oslo is in Norway Water flows downhill The Holy Father (Rome version) is a Catholic |
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Post by gwynthegriff on May 15, 2022 16:28:11 GMT
There was often a theory (and I'm not sure it would stand up to proper examination tbf) that a defence was easier if the MP had died as opposed to resigned. Maybe the Sidcup / N Shrops results bear that out. If so, that adds to the Tory problems in that these two by elections are more than just a "normal" resignation. Perhaps the local Tories think they would benefit if the incumbent stood as that would make it easier for them to distance themselves from him? The Ashfield-Grimsby by-elections were a powerful illustration that there's something to it - marginal Grimsby (where the MP had died) was held; (then) safe Ashfield (where the MP had resigned for a cushy job at the EU) was lost. Chesham & Amersham rather clouds the idea. |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on May 15, 2022 16:37:43 GMT
I think you see it plenty in local by-elections and I'm sure it would be ripe for academic study. When I was taking part in the prediction competition (oh for those days of having such time!) I looked into this less rigorously. I generally gave a boost to the defending party in the case of death of the incumbent, a small penalty for a 'clean' resignation (ill health most notably, also work commitments and recognising they weren't up to it) and a big penalty for a 'messy' resignation (interestingly enough, from what I remember the most messy type of all was 'moving away from the area') which meant a very tricky defence and some very safe seats lost.
Won some, lost some, and only one factor - but it did seem to be significant at the time, 2-3 years ago. I'm sure there will be academic research on it out there.
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Post by mattb on May 15, 2022 16:54:18 GMT
Rich remainers would be less embarrassed to have Starmer as PM than Boris. Perhaps, but Richmond would rather be embarrassed than pay tax! No. |
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Post by aargauer on May 15, 2022 17:04:47 GMT
Perhaps, but Richmond would rather be embarrassed than pay tax! No. 2021 London elections? |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on May 15, 2022 17:05:23 GMT
Early in the campaign for this. Does the constituency cover the Okehampton branch? I thought that was Mid Devon.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,913
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Post by YL on May 15, 2022 17:11:53 GMT
Early in the campaign for this. Does the constituency cover the Okehampton branch? I thought that was Mid Devon. Okehampton is in Central Devon constituency, as is Crediton, but Cullompton is in T & H. |
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Post by mattb on May 15, 2022 17:21:42 GMT
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Post by aargauer on May 15, 2022 17:21:42 GMT
Early in the campaign for this. Does the constituency cover the Okehampton branch? I thought that was Mid Devon. A Bit aggressive? No? |
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Post by aargauer on May 15, 2022 17:22:46 GMT
I mean they'd vote Tory over labour - not over you lot. You've given them everything they want recently (Tory coalition then remain). |
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Post by batman on May 15, 2022 18:02:59 GMT
Perhaps, but Richmond would rather be embarrassed than pay tax! Well quite. They elected Jenny Tonge. Rich remainers in OxWAB elect Layla Moran and rich remainers in Bath elect Wera Hobhouse. They aren't worried about being represented by embarassments.. to be fair, although I never voted for her, in her time as our local MP I don't think Jenny Tonge was embarrassing. Her embarrassing behaviour started when she had taken a peerage. |
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Post by batman on May 15, 2022 18:09:54 GMT
There was often a theory (and I'm not sure it would stand up to proper examination tbf) that a defence was easier if the MP had died as opposed to resigned. Maybe the Sidcup / N Shrops results bear that out. If so, that adds to the Tory problems in that these two by elections are more than just a "normal" resignation. Perhaps the local Tories think they would benefit if the incumbent stood as that would make it easier for them to distance themselves from him? The Ashfield-Grimsby by-elections were a powerful illustration that there's something to it - marginal Grimsby (where the MP had died) was held; (then) safe Ashfield (where the MP had resigned for a cushy job at the EU) was lost. Chesham & Amersham rather clouds the idea. so did Eastbourne |
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Post by gwynthegriff on May 15, 2022 18:14:17 GMT
The Ashfield-Grimsby by-elections were a powerful illustration that there's something to it - marginal Grimsby (where the MP had died) was held; (then) safe Ashfield (where the MP had resigned for a cushy job at the EU) was lost. Chesham & Amersham rather clouds the idea. so did Eastbourne Yes, a striking example. (Though wasn't there a suggestion that the Tories rather overplayed their hand on that?) |
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Post by gwynthegriff on May 15, 2022 18:16:00 GMT
Early in the campaign for this. Does the constituency cover the Okehampton branch? I thought that was Mid Devon. He'd lose my vote for using "train station".  |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 16, 2022 9:17:37 GMT
I mean they'd vote Tory over labour - not over you lot. You've given them everything they want recently (Tory coalition then remain). Can I suggest you actually look up the 2021 election results? Bailey's lead over Khan on first votes in Richmond was about 2500 votes, and it was narrowly overcome on second votes. |
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