Wakefield

[markgoodair]

Apr 13, 2022 22:28:08 GMT bsjmcr said:

Boundary changes (if approved and no changes based on people's comments) see Rothwell added and Ossett/Horbury removed to form a new Ossett and Denby Dale constituency.

I know very little about Rothwell - any idea the effect of this is on Wakefield? It certainly looks odd sticking out at the top and on the other side of the M62, and not being mentioned in the name.

It was part of a safe Labour Morley and Rothwell but is now part of safely Tory 'Elmet' and Rothwell so for an outsider hard to tell if it was Morley or the Elmet or the Rothwell that made it safely Labour/Conservative! As I understand it Ossett is a more Conservative area - as such and by combining it with Denby Dale/Kirkburton, surely the new Tory candidate (or MP if he/she is elected!) for 'Wakefield' would choose to stand there instead, unless Rothwell is also a Tory bastion? Then again Mark Eastwood would probably also prefer the safer pastures of O&DD compared to the new Dewsbury.

And of course the 'Wakefield South' ward is still not in the 'Wakefield' constituency, it will instead move from Hemsworth to O&DD.

Rothwell is a Liberal Democrat ward.

[YL]

Apr 13, 2022 22:28:08 GMT bsjmcr said:

Boundary changes (if approved and no changes based on people's comments) see Rothwell added and Ossett/Horbury removed to form a new Ossett and Denby Dale constituency.

I know very little about Rothwell - any idea the effect of this is on Wakefield? It certainly looks odd sticking out at the top and on the other side of the M62, and not being mentioned in the name.

It was part of a safe Labour Morley and Rothwell but is now part of safely Tory 'Elmet' and Rothwell so for an outsider hard to tell if it was Morley or the Elmet or the Rothwell that made it safely Labour/Conservative! As I understand it Ossett is a more Conservative area - as such and by combining it with Denby Dale/Kirkburton, surely the new Tory candidate (or MP if he/she is elected!) for 'Wakefield' would choose to stand there instead, unless Rothwell is also a Tory bastion? Then again Mark Eastwood would probably also prefer the safer pastures of O&DD compared to the new Dewsbury.

And of course the 'Wakefield South' ward is still not in the 'Wakefield' constituency, it will instead move from Hemsworth to O&DD.

In fact Wakefield Rural ward is also proposed to move to Ossett & Denby Dale, meaning that that would contain the majority of the existing Wakefield constituency. The new Wakefield, effectively a new constituency, would include the two Outwood wards from Morley & Outwood as well as Rothwell and the three Wakefield (compass point) wards in the current constituency. That the current constituency is proposed to be effectively abolished and divided between two new constituencies makes me think that it is even less likely that there'll be a detectable long term effect of this case.

I suspect that New Wakefield would have voted Tory in 2019, but perhaps more narrowly than the existing constituency, while Ossett & Denby Dale is more Tory. (Electoral Calculus, for what it's worth, has New Wakefield as Tory by 2,000 or so in 2019 and O&DD by over 11,000; on its current predictions it has New Wakefield as comfortably Labour and O&DD on a knife edge.)

Apr 14, 2022 6:14:05 GMT markgoodair said:

Rothwell is a Liberal Democrat ward.

In local elections.

[stb12]

Apr 13, 2022 22:29:20 GMT gwynthegriff said:

Apr 13, 2022 22:04:04 GMT ArmchairCritic said:

But then that would suggest that "The Tories" knew he was a nonce at the material time.

Are you suggesting that I did?

What did the Dead Limbs put up when they made Mark Oaten their candidate? And of course Cyril Smith was a lovely bloke, wasn't he?

I may have missed it but what criminal offence was Mark Oaten convicted of?

Smith wasn't convicted of anything either but there's a general consensus around him all the same

[finsobruce]

Apr 13, 2022 22:04:04 GMT ArmchairCritic said:

Apr 13, 2022 15:36:27 GMT markgoodair said:

The Tories put up a nonce. Mud sticks.

But then that would suggest that "The Tories" knew he was a nonce at the material time.

Are you suggesting that I did?

What did the Dead Limbs put up when they made Mark Oaten their candidate? And of course Cyril Smith was a lovely bloke, wasn't he?

Fun Fact : Mark Oaten is now CEO of the International Fur Federation (they're in favour of it being used, just to be clear).

[yellowperil]

Apr 14, 2022 7:00:01 GMT YL said:

Apr 13, 2022 22:28:08 GMT bsjmcr said:

Boundary changes (if approved and no changes based on people's comments) see Rothwell added and Ossett/Horbury removed to form a new Ossett and Denby Dale constituency.

I know very little about Rothwell - any idea the effect of this is on Wakefield? It certainly looks odd sticking out at the top and on the other side of the M62, and not being mentioned in the name.

It was part of a safe Labour Morley and Rothwell but is now part of safely Tory 'Elmet' and Rothwell so for an outsider hard to tell if it was Morley or the Elmet or the Rothwell that made it safely Labour/Conservative! As I understand it Ossett is a more Conservative area - as such and by combining it with Denby Dale/Kirkburton, surely the new Tory candidate (or MP if he/she is elected!) for 'Wakefield' would choose to stand there instead, unless Rothwell is also a Tory bastion? Then again Mark Eastwood would probably also prefer the safer pastures of O&DD compared to the new Dewsbury.

And of course the 'Wakefield South' ward is still not in the 'Wakefield' constituency, it will instead move from Hemsworth to O&DD.

In fact Wakefield Rural ward is also proposed to move to Ossett & Denby Dale, meaning that that would contain the majority of the existing Wakefield constituency. The new Wakefield, effectively a new constituency, would include the two Outwood wards from Morley & Outwood as well as Rothwell and the three Wakefield (compass point) wards in the current constituency. That the current constituency is proposed to be effectively abolished and divided between two new constituencies makes me think that it is even less likely that there'll be a detectable long term effect of this case.

I suspect that New Wakefield would have voted Tory in 2019, but perhaps more narrowly than the existing constituency, while Ossett & Denby Dale is more Tory. (Electoral Calculus, for what it's worth, has New Wakefield as Tory by 2,000 or so in 2019 and O&DD by over 11,000; on its current predictions it has New Wakefield as comfortably Labour and O&DD on a knife edge.)

Apr 14, 2022 6:14:05 GMT markgoodair said:

Rothwell is a Liberal Democrat ward.

In local elections.

It so happens that today my granddaughter is moving into her house in Rothwell - she exchanged contracts on Monday. Rothwell is quite strongly LibDem at local level, and she will have just added to that. I note that the Wiki entry for Rothwell "famous sons" has Lord Newby  of Rothwell listed, and who could be more famous than Dick Newby ( I have known Dick since the early eighties)? Of course Rothwell town is not big enough in its own right to shape the result in a general election, regardless of which constituency it is attached to, but it may have more in common with Wakefield  than Leeds even though it it comes under Leeds MBC.

My first post for two months, btw.

[The Bishop]

Well hello there.

[gibbon]

When local government was reorganised in 1972 there was a proposal that Harrogate join Leeds and that Rothwell would be part of Wakefield. Following an article in the Leeds Weekly Citizen (run by Leeds Labour Party) welcoming Harrogate to the proposed Leeds Metropolitan District and the opportunity to build multi storey flats on The Stray there was a strong campaign to change those proposals. At the same time there was a campaign to transfer Rothwell to Leeds. As part of a deal in the House of Lords both amendments were carried. In reality there was never a plan to build on the Stray. Until 2000 Rothwell elected Labour councillors but with new developments in the area (as in Morley) the demographics of the area changed. As people in Rothwell rarely voted Conservative our good friend 'tactical voting' encouraged Conservatives to vote Liberal, particularly when in 2000 the sitting Labour councillor lived in North East Leeds. Thereafter the Liberal Democrats had a strong foothold in the area. Labour has won in Rothwell a few times since 2011 but not often. Rothwell councillors played a strong role in the Conservative/Liberal coalition from 2004-2010, for three years with the Green Party and then with the Morley Independents. Major housing developments in Morley and Rothwell have changed the area to the benefit of the Conservatives.

[gwynthegriff]

Apr 14, 2022 8:50:28 GMT yellowperil said:

Apr 14, 2022 7:00:01 GMT YL said:

In fact Wakefield Rural ward is also proposed to move to Ossett & Denby Dale, meaning that that would contain the majority of the existing Wakefield constituency. The new Wakefield, effectively a new constituency, would include the two Outwood wards from Morley & Outwood as well as Rothwell and the three Wakefield (compass point) wards in the current constituency. That the current constituency is proposed to be effectively abolished and divided between two new constituencies makes me think that it is even less likely that there'll be a detectable long term effect of this case.

I suspect that New Wakefield would have voted Tory in 2019, but perhaps more narrowly than the existing constituency, while Ossett & Denby Dale is more Tory. (Electoral Calculus, for what it's worth, has New Wakefield as Tory by 2,000 or so in 2019 and O&DD by over 11,000; on its current predictions it has New Wakefield as comfortably Labour and O&DD on a knife edge.)

In local elections.

It so happens that today my granddaughter is moving into her house in Rothwell - she exchanged contracts on Monday. Rothwell is quite strongly LibDem at local level, and she will have just added to that. I note that the Wiki entry for Rothwell "famous sons" has Lord Newby  of Rothwell listed, and who could be more famous than Dick Newby ( I have known Dick since the early eighties)? Of course Rothwell town is not big enough in its own right to shape the result in a general election, regardless of which constituency it is attached to, but it may have more in common with Wakefield  than Leeds even though it it comes under Leeds MBC.

My first post for two months, btw.

We had noticed, and had missed you.

But respected the sentiment you'd expressed that it might be time to leave the site / take a break.

Glad it was only the latter.

Hope all is well with you and yours.

[gwynthegriff]

Apr 13, 2022 23:19:19 GMT neilm said:

Apr 13, 2022 20:30:21 GMT gwynthegriff said:

I wouldn't even place it at "several" cycles.

I can recall numerous cases where there were "I'll never vote xxx again, because of yyy" stramashes which (outside a handful of monomaniacs) were forgotten within a single cycle - the Child Support Agency, CB Radio (showing my age), the 25p pension increase (or whatever it was) etc.

And they were policy issues rather than the behaviour of an individual.*



* The niceties of party approval and selection procedures are lost on most people.

People swore they'd never vote Conservative (I assume) because of the way that CB was legalised, meaning they couldn't use their gear from the US? Or did they object to legalisation?

I honestly can't remember, but I do remember claims that thousands of CB activists were going to descend on key seats to swing the results.

They didn't.

Monomaniacs rarely do.

[Ron Swanson]

Apr 14, 2022 8:50:28 GMT yellowperil said:

Apr 14, 2022 7:00:01 GMT YL said:

In fact Wakefield Rural ward is also proposed to move to Ossett & Denby Dale, meaning that that would contain the majority of the existing Wakefield constituency. The new Wakefield, effectively a new constituency, would include the two Outwood wards from Morley & Outwood as well as Rothwell and the three Wakefield (compass point) wards in the current constituency. That the current constituency is proposed to be effectively abolished and divided between two new constituencies makes me think that it is even less likely that there'll be a detectable long term effect of this case.

I suspect that New Wakefield would have voted Tory in 2019, but perhaps more narrowly than the existing constituency, while Ossett & Denby Dale is more Tory. (Electoral Calculus, for what it's worth, has New Wakefield as Tory by 2,000 or so in 2019 and O&DD by over 11,000; on its current predictions it has New Wakefield as comfortably Labour and O&DD on a knife edge.)

In local elections.

It so happens that today my granddaughter is moving into her house in Rothwell - she exchanged contracts on Monday. Rothwell is quite strongly LibDem at local level, and she will have just added to that. I note that the Wiki entry for Rothwell "famous sons" has Lord Newby  of Rothwell listed, and who could be more famous than Dick Newby ( I have known Dick since the early eighties)? Of course Rothwell town is not big enough in its own right to shape the result in a general election, regardless of which constituency it is attached to, but it may have more in common with Wakefield  than Leeds even though it it comes under Leeds MBC.

My first post for two months, btw.

Yes, Rothwell does have more of a Wakefield feel, though I guess the motorway acts as a natural barrier… I dunno.

It’s a nice place all the same.

Was it Brian Walker who was ousted back in the day?

Labour do sometimes have a terrible track record in Leeds of imposing non-local candidates - I suppose in a seat like this that isn’t inner city, Leeds proper, they can come unstuck.

It certainly has more in common with Wakefield than Wetherby, with whom it shares an MP.

[Deleted]

Khan resigning

[LDCaerdydd]

[pinkglover]

Confirmation:

[LDCaerdydd]

Impending By-election confirmed

[Deleted]

The Wakefield by-election will be this government's Corby 2012.

[peterl]

My early prediction: Labour gain by 3,000-4,000 votes. Turnout circa 45%.

[markgoodair]

Apr 14, 2022 16:15:25 GMT pinkglover said:

Confirmation:

Good riddance

[CatholicLeft]

Apr 14, 2022 16:15:32 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

Impending By-election confirmed

The right thing to do.
I wonder when the byelection will be? If the Conservatives have a disastrous local elections followed by a bad loss here, it is a nightmare for the government, especially given the report still to be published, after more fines.

[Deleted]

1) BBC gets a Political Editor from Yorkshire
2) Yorkshire MP for a marginal seat to quit

Hmm

[cogload]

Labour Gain.