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Post by batman on Apr 13, 2022 20:54:39 GMT
Geoffrey only retired at the last election though.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Apr 13, 2022 21:17:27 GMT
er...LibDem betrayal on student loans anyone? Not on the same par as sexually molesting a child.
The Student Loans betrayal in terms of long term political impact is greater, whatever you may wish.
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Post by greenchristian on Apr 13, 2022 21:19:19 GMT
Geoffrey only retired at the last election though. Though he had been AWOL for a very long time before that. But I was talking about people bringing up things from decades ago, as somebody did in a conversation I had earlier today (which is why I used it as an example). Some things linger in the memory of a certain section of the electorate for a long time. It isn't unreasonable to suppose that this scandal will be one of them. It is unreasonable to take that supposition as far as mark did in the post I was originally replying to. I would expect there to be some folk memory of this in Wakefield for at least a decade in the form of "no matter how bad the current MP is, at least he/she isn't a nonce like the one he/she replaced" and/or "the current MP is pretty good, much better than the nonce he/she replaced".
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Apr 13, 2022 21:28:40 GMT
Yes. I would be amazed if this is a significant factor in 10 years time. It certainly is unlikely to stop the Conservatives winning Wakefield ever again.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2022 21:35:07 GMT
I imagine any direct consequence will be fairly short-lived (by-election and maybe 1 GE) but the subconscious effect (don't like the Tories but don't really know why) might last a while longer. Though it will also be smaller
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Post by ArmchairCritic on Apr 13, 2022 21:58:54 GMT
He was a crap candidate anyway. Creagh would have beat him again. He'd have won it by a bigger margin than Khan did. Probably 5,000 ish To say otherwise is just fantasyland bollocks and for that idiot markgoodair to like your post shows what he knows about Wakefield political campaigning and, may well indicate why he is a perpetual loser at every election he ever fought and will be so again this year. |
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Post by ArmchairCritic on Apr 13, 2022 22:04:04 GMT
That is an absurd statement and a moment of reflection by you would of course see that. It is impossible to know what the future holds. Some of the very safest seats for each of the majors have moved to the other side. Just consider London, Liverpool and recently Stoke. I can see Wakefield being lost to Labour very soon but being won back again even in my lifetime. It is a possibility. It only takes a Falklands, a Brexit, a Corbyn or a major boundary change, or a demographic shift in population or gentrification of some areas. Nothing is forever. The Tories put up a nonce. Mud sticks. But then that would suggest that "The Tories" knew he was a nonce at the material time. Are you suggesting that I did? What did the Dead Limbs put up when they made Mark Oaten their candidate? And of course Cyril Smith was a lovely bloke, wasn't he? |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 13, 2022 22:27:29 GMT
Geoffrey only retired at the last election though. Though he had been AWOL for a very long time before that. But I was talking about people bringing up things from decades ago, as somebody did in a conversation I had earlier today (which is why I used it as an example). Some things linger in the memory of a certain section of the electorate for a long time. It isn't unreasonable to suppose that this scandal will be one of them. It is unreasonable to take that supposition as far as mark did in the post I was originally replying to. I would expect there to be some folk memory of this in Wakefield for at least a decade in the form of "no matter how bad the current MP is, at least he/she isn't a nonce like the one he/she replaced" and/or "the current MP is pretty good, much better than the nonce he/she replaced".
I heard of one old lady who still held the Liberals responsible for "poor General Gordon" - doesn't mean it affects the outcome of elections. Monomaniacs rarely do. |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Apr 13, 2022 22:28:08 GMT
Boundary changes (if approved and no changes based on people's comments) see Rothwell added and Ossett/Horbury removed to form a new Ossett and Denby Dale constituency.
I know very little about Rothwell - any idea the effect of this is on Wakefield? It certainly looks odd sticking out at the top and on the other side of the M62, and not being mentioned in the name.
It was part of a safe Labour Morley and Rothwell but is now part of safely Tory 'Elmet' and Rothwell so for an outsider hard to tell if it was Morley or the Elmet or the Rothwell that made it safely Labour/Conservative! As I understand it Ossett is a more Conservative area - as such and by combining it with Denby Dale/Kirkburton, surely the new Tory candidate (or MP if he/she is elected!) for 'Wakefield' would choose to stand there instead, unless Rothwell is also a Tory bastion? Then again Mark Eastwood would probably also prefer the safer pastures of O&DD compared to the new Dewsbury.
And of course the 'Wakefield South' ward is still not in the 'Wakefield' constituency, it will instead move from Hemsworth to O&DD.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 13, 2022 22:29:20 GMT
The Tories put up a nonce. Mud sticks. But then that would suggest that "The Tories" knew he was a nonce at the material time. Are you suggesting that I did? What did the Dead Limbs put up when they made Mark Oaten their candidate? And of course Cyril Smith was a lovely bloke, wasn't he? I may have missed it but what criminal offence was Mark Oaten convicted of? |
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Post by ArmchairCritic on Apr 13, 2022 22:45:58 GMT
But then that would suggest that "The Tories" knew he was a nonce at the material time. Are you suggesting that I did? What did the Dead Limbs put up when they made Mark Oaten their candidate? And of course Cyril Smith was a lovely bloke, wasn't he? I may have missed it but what criminal offence was Mark Oaten convicted of? I never said he was. I was talking more about his personal conduct |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Apr 13, 2022 23:19:19 GMT
Never is a very long time. Yes, this scandal is going to hurt them in the seat for several election cycles. But do you really think that a Conservative candidate in 40 years time will be hurt by a scandal that's barely even a memory to most of the electorate, and clearly has absolutely nothing to do with them? I wouldn't even place it at "several" cycles. I can recall numerous cases where there were "I'll never vote xxx again, because of yyy" stramashes which (outside a handful of monomaniacs) were forgotten within a single cycle - the Child Support Agency, CB Radio (showing my age), the 25p pension increase (or whatever it was) etc. And they were policy issues rather than the behaviour of an individual.* * The niceties of party approval and selection procedures are lost on most people. People swore they'd never vote Conservative (I assume) because of the way that CB was legalised, meaning they couldn't use their gear from the US? Or did they object to legalisation? |
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Post by markgoodair on Apr 14, 2022 6:14:05 GMT
Boundary changes (if approved and no changes based on people's comments) see Rothwell added and Ossett/Horbury removed to form a new Ossett and Denby Dale constituency. I know very little about Rothwell - any idea the effect of this is on Wakefield? It certainly looks odd sticking out at the top and on the other side of the M62, and not being mentioned in the name. It was part of a safe Labour Morley and Rothwell but is now part of safely Tory 'Elmet' and Rothwell so for an outsider hard to tell if it was Morley or the Elmet or the Rothwell that made it safely Labour/Conservative! As I understand it Ossett is a more Conservative area - as such and by combining it with Denby Dale/Kirkburton, surely the new Tory candidate (or MP if he/she is elected!) for 'Wakefield' would choose to stand there instead, unless Rothwell is also a Tory bastion? Then again Mark Eastwood would probably also prefer the safer pastures of O&DD compared to the new Dewsbury. And of course the 'Wakefield South' ward is still not in the 'Wakefield' constituency, it will instead move from Hemsworth to O&DD. Rothwell is a Liberal Democrat ward. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Apr 14, 2022 7:00:01 GMT
Boundary changes (if approved and no changes based on people's comments) see Rothwell added and Ossett/Horbury removed to form a new Ossett and Denby Dale constituency. I know very little about Rothwell - any idea the effect of this is on Wakefield? It certainly looks odd sticking out at the top and on the other side of the M62, and not being mentioned in the name. It was part of a safe Labour Morley and Rothwell but is now part of safely Tory 'Elmet' and Rothwell so for an outsider hard to tell if it was Morley or the Elmet or the Rothwell that made it safely Labour/Conservative! As I understand it Ossett is a more Conservative area - as such and by combining it with Denby Dale/Kirkburton, surely the new Tory candidate (or MP if he/she is elected!) for 'Wakefield' would choose to stand there instead, unless Rothwell is also a Tory bastion? Then again Mark Eastwood would probably also prefer the safer pastures of O&DD compared to the new Dewsbury. And of course the 'Wakefield South' ward is still not in the 'Wakefield' constituency, it will instead move from Hemsworth to O&DD. In fact Wakefield Rural ward is also proposed to move to Ossett & Denby Dale, meaning that that would contain the majority of the existing Wakefield constituency. The new Wakefield, effectively a new constituency, would include the two Outwood wards from Morley & Outwood as well as Rothwell and the three Wakefield (compass point) wards in the current constituency. That the current constituency is proposed to be effectively abolished and divided between two new constituencies makes me think that it is even less likely that there'll be a detectable long term effect of this case. I suspect that New Wakefield would have voted Tory in 2019, but perhaps more narrowly than the existing constituency, while Ossett & Denby Dale is more Tory. (Electoral Calculus, for what it's worth, has New Wakefield as Tory by 2,000 or so in 2019 and O&DD by over 11,000; on its current predictions it has New Wakefield as comfortably Labour and O&DD on a knife edge.) Rothwell is a Liberal Democrat ward. In local elections. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Apr 14, 2022 8:29:23 GMT
But then that would suggest that "The Tories" knew he was a nonce at the material time. Are you suggesting that I did? What did the Dead Limbs put up when they made Mark Oaten their candidate? And of course Cyril Smith was a lovely bloke, wasn't he? I may have missed it but what criminal offence was Mark Oaten convicted of? Smith wasn't convicted of anything either but there's a general consensus around him all the same |
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 14, 2022 8:46:59 GMT
The Tories put up a nonce. Mud sticks. But then that would suggest that "The Tories" knew he was a nonce at the material time. Are you suggesting that I did? What did the Dead Limbs put up when they made Mark Oaten their candidate? And of course Cyril Smith was a lovely bloke, wasn't he? Fun Fact : Mark Oaten is now CEO of the International Fur Federation (they're in favour of it being used, just to be clear). |
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Post by yellowperil on Apr 14, 2022 8:50:28 GMT
Boundary changes (if approved and no changes based on people's comments) see Rothwell added and Ossett/Horbury removed to form a new Ossett and Denby Dale constituency. I know very little about Rothwell - any idea the effect of this is on Wakefield? It certainly looks odd sticking out at the top and on the other side of the M62, and not being mentioned in the name. It was part of a safe Labour Morley and Rothwell but is now part of safely Tory 'Elmet' and Rothwell so for an outsider hard to tell if it was Morley or the Elmet or the Rothwell that made it safely Labour/Conservative! As I understand it Ossett is a more Conservative area - as such and by combining it with Denby Dale/Kirkburton, surely the new Tory candidate (or MP if he/she is elected!) for 'Wakefield' would choose to stand there instead, unless Rothwell is also a Tory bastion? Then again Mark Eastwood would probably also prefer the safer pastures of O&DD compared to the new Dewsbury. And of course the 'Wakefield South' ward is still not in the 'Wakefield' constituency, it will instead move from Hemsworth to O&DD. In fact Wakefield Rural ward is also proposed to move to Ossett & Denby Dale, meaning that that would contain the majority of the existing Wakefield constituency. The new Wakefield, effectively a new constituency, would include the two Outwood wards from Morley & Outwood as well as Rothwell and the three Wakefield (compass point) wards in the current constituency. That the current constituency is proposed to be effectively abolished and divided between two new constituencies makes me think that it is even less likely that there'll be a detectable long term effect of this case. I suspect that New Wakefield would have voted Tory in 2019, but perhaps more narrowly than the existing constituency, while Ossett & Denby Dale is more Tory. (Electoral Calculus, for what it's worth, has New Wakefield as Tory by 2,000 or so in 2019 and O&DD by over 11,000; on its current predictions it has New Wakefield as comfortably Labour and O&DD on a knife edge.) Rothwell is a Liberal Democrat ward. In local elections. It so happens that today my granddaughter is moving into her house in Rothwell - she exchanged contracts on Monday. Rothwell is quite strongly LibDem at local level, and she will have just added to that. I note that the Wiki entry for Rothwell "famous sons" has Lord Newby of Rothwell listed, and who could be more famous than Dick Newby ( I have known Dick since the early eighties)? Of course Rothwell town is not big enough in its own right to shape the result in a general election, regardless of which constituency it is attached to, but it may have more in common with Wakefield than Leeds even though it it comes under Leeds MBC. My first post for two months, btw. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 14, 2022 10:49:54 GMT
Well hello there.
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Post by gibbon on Apr 14, 2022 11:36:05 GMT
When local government was reorganised in 1972 there was a proposal that Harrogate join Leeds and that Rothwell would be part of Wakefield. Following an article in the Leeds Weekly Citizen (run by Leeds Labour Party) welcoming Harrogate to the proposed Leeds Metropolitan District and the opportunity to build multi storey flats on The Stray there was a strong campaign to change those proposals. At the same time there was a campaign to transfer Rothwell to Leeds. As part of a deal in the House of Lords both amendments were carried. In reality there was never a plan to build on the Stray. Until 2000 Rothwell elected Labour councillors but with new developments in the area (as in Morley) the demographics of the area changed. As people in Rothwell rarely voted Conservative our good friend 'tactical voting' encouraged Conservatives to vote Liberal, particularly when in 2000 the sitting Labour councillor lived in North East Leeds. Thereafter the Liberal Democrats had a strong foothold in the area. Labour has won in Rothwell a few times since 2011 but not often. Rothwell councillors played a strong role in the Conservative/Liberal coalition from 2004-2010, for three years with the Green Party and then with the Morley Independents. Major housing developments in Morley and Rothwell have changed the area to the benefit of the Conservatives.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 14, 2022 12:11:02 GMT
In fact Wakefield Rural ward is also proposed to move to Ossett & Denby Dale, meaning that that would contain the majority of the existing Wakefield constituency. The new Wakefield, effectively a new constituency, would include the two Outwood wards from Morley & Outwood as well as Rothwell and the three Wakefield (compass point) wards in the current constituency. That the current constituency is proposed to be effectively abolished and divided between two new constituencies makes me think that it is even less likely that there'll be a detectable long term effect of this case. I suspect that New Wakefield would have voted Tory in 2019, but perhaps more narrowly than the existing constituency, while Ossett & Denby Dale is more Tory. (Electoral Calculus, for what it's worth, has New Wakefield as Tory by 2,000 or so in 2019 and O&DD by over 11,000; on its current predictions it has New Wakefield as comfortably Labour and O&DD on a knife edge.) In local elections. It so happens that today my granddaughter is moving into her house in Rothwell - she exchanged contracts on Monday. Rothwell is quite strongly LibDem at local level, and she will have just added to that. I note that the Wiki entry for Rothwell "famous sons" has Lord Newby of Rothwell listed, and who could be more famous than Dick Newby ( I have known Dick since the early eighties)? Of course Rothwell town is not big enough in its own right to shape the result in a general election, regardless of which constituency it is attached to, but it may have more in common with Wakefield than Leeds even though it it comes under Leeds MBC. My first post for two months, btw.
We had noticed, and had missed you. But respected the sentiment you'd expressed that it might be time to leave the site / take a break. Glad it was only the latter. Hope all is well with you and yours. |
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