Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 31, 2022 16:13:48 GMT
The Coalition seem somewhat chastened by the thumping they have received in suburban areas seemingly largely for their environmental position (its notable that the essentially rural National element of the Coalition held all their seats). If we take the AEC-classification, the Coalition fell in "Outer Metro" from 21 to 15, yes; but even more in "Inner Metro": from 17 to 4. |
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willpower3
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Post by willpower3 on May 31, 2022 19:42:49 GMT
The failure to win Gilmore makes this the first election not to see a single Coalition gain since all the way back in 1983. Morrison gave a disappointingly gracious concession speech. Had he cried then the 1983 comparison would be more apt. |
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Post by timrollpickering on May 31, 2022 19:57:51 GMT
The Coalition seem somewhat chastened by the thumping they have received in suburban areas seemingly largely for their environmental position (its notable that the essentially rural National element of the Coalition held all their seats). If we take the AEC-classification, the Coalition fell in "Outer Metro" from 21 to 15, yes; but even more in "Inner Metro": from 17 to 4. In Australia the term "suburb" can mean any part of a city/metropolitan area not just the outer bits. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 31, 2022 21:05:10 GMT
If we take the AEC-classification, the Coalition fell in "Outer Metro" from 21 to 15, yes; but even more in "Inner Metro": from 17 to 4. In Australia the term "suburb" can mean any part of a city/metropolitan area not just the outer bits. Firstly i cannot imagine, that in Australia even cityCentres are labelled as "suburban". Secondly matureleft surely meant it in the usual way. |
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Post by minionofmidas on May 31, 2022 21:22:20 GMT
In Australia the term "suburb" can mean any part of a city/metropolitan area not just the outer bits. Firstly i cannot imagine, that in Australia even cityCentres are labelled as "suburban". Not the Innere Stadt but certainly every other neighborhood of Vienna... though no Australian city centre is anywhere near as large as the Innere Stadt. It's literally just Australian for neighborhood. A result of the cities' young age - which of course also means those wealthy inner suburbs / city neighborhoods may look fairly suburban. |
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willpower3
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Post by willpower3 on May 31, 2022 21:27:25 GMT
If Shorten is enough of a sociopath to become a Kevin Rudd type figure (his animosity towards Albanese is reportedly strong) then we might see a repeat of the 2010-2013 era, ending with Tony Abbott 2.0 becoming the Prime Minister by default.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on May 31, 2022 23:04:23 GMT
In Australia the term "suburb" can mean any part of a city/metropolitan area not just the outer bits. Firstly i cannot imagine, that in Australia even cityCentres are labelled as "suburban". Secondly matureleft surely meant it in the usual way. They actually do. Sydney CBD is officially a suburb named Sydney. A suburb means any locality within a metropolitan area. It's pretty much what everywhere else would call a neighbourhood. What we call suburb, they call outer suburbs. If Shorten is enough of a sociopath to become a Kevin Rudd type figure (his animosity towards Albanese is reportedly strong) then we might see a repeat of the 2010-2013 era, ending with Tony Abbott 2.0 becoming the Prime Minister by default. Well, he is being kept busy, as he is the minister responsible to fix the disaster at NDIS (National Disability Insurance Scheme), which is pretty much running out of money and, so, is firing staff and cutting benefits. |
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 1, 2022 1:18:37 GMT
Firstly i cannot imagine, that in Australia even cityCentres are labelled as "suburban". Secondly matureleft surely meant it in the usual way. They actually do. Sydney CBD is officially a suburb named Sydney. A suburb means any locality within a metropolitan area. It's pretty much what everywhere else would call a neighbourhood. What we call suburb, they call outer suburbs. This is of course perfectly logical as a sub urb is a part of an urb...... |
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Post by timrollpickering on Jun 16, 2022 1:23:24 GMT
The final Senate results are slowly coming through. Of the three so far:
The Country Liberal Party have recovered their seat in the Northern Territory lost when the previous Senator quit the party; she stood for the Liberal Democrats but went down to defeat. The new Senator will sit with the Nationals.
The Liberals have lost their seat in the ACT to David Pocock, an independent with tealish positions (and ex rugby player). This is the first time since the territories got Senate representation that any seat has changed hands due to voters.
In South Australia the Centre Alliance (previously Nick Xenophon Team) didn't stand to defend the two seats they won in 2016. One of the Senators went solo with his own party. The other remained a CA member but stood on an independent ticket with Nick Xenophon and lost. The Liberals and Greens have each gained a seat.
Rebekha Sharkie has retained the House seat of Mayo but this was Centre Alliance's only candidacy and it's hard to see how the CA is now anything more than a label for an effectively independent single member. Nick Xenophon's attempted comeback failed completely, not helped by the way that many Senate voters seem to ignore the independent tickets with no name above the line when allocating preferences.
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Post by timrollpickering on Jun 16, 2022 13:28:39 GMT
Tasmania has elected 2 Liberals, 2 Labor, 1 Green and 1 Jacqui Lambie Newtwork. This is either a no change or a JLN gain from the Liberals depending on how you look at it.
When the seats were allocated after the 2016 double dissolution the "long" term seats went 2-2-1-1 as above but when Jacqui Lambie was caught in the citizenship crisis a recount reallocated the seats so the Liberals got a third "long" seat and the JLN got a "short" term seat instead that was up in 2019. This is because Tasmania sees a lot more below the line voting compared to mainland states which can sometimes make the difference.
Long standing Liberal Senator Eric Abetz was dropped to third place on the ticket below the other two sitting Senators up. He tried a below the line campaign but hasn't got the votes so will be out of the Senate from July. I think he would have been the Father of the Senate if he had been re-elected (Kim Carr in Victoria is retiring).
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Post by greenhert on Jun 16, 2022 14:20:50 GMT
The final Senate results are slowly coming through. Of the three so far: The Country Liberal Party have recovered their seat in the Northern Territory lost when the previous Senator quit the party; she stood for the Liberal Democrats but went down to defeat. The new Senator will sit with the Nationals. The Liberals have lost their seat in the ACT to David Pocock, an independent with tealish positions (and ex rugby player). This is the first time since the territories got Senate representation that any seat has changed hands due to voters. In South Australia the Centre Alliance (previously Nick Xenophon Team) didn't stand to defend the two seats they won in 2016. One of the Senators went solo with his own party. The other remained a CA member but stood on an independent ticket with Nick Xenophon and lost. The Liberals and Greens have each gained a seat. Rebekha Sharkie has retained the House seat of Mayo but this was Centre Alliance's only candidacy and it's hard to see how the CA is now anything more than a label for an effectively independent single member. Nick Xenophon's attempted comeback failed completely, not helped by the way that many Senate voters seem to ignore the independent tickets with no name above the line when allocating preferences.True, but there is no doubt that the "Teal Independents" took some leaves out of his book, and used them to great effect. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 16, 2022 18:06:39 GMT
TargetList for the Coalition:  Trends (=deViations from national average) of TwoPartyPreference in - states:  - constituencies (only those with a positive trend to the Coalition):  |
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Post by timrollpickering on Jun 16, 2022 21:13:29 GMT
Nick Xenophon's attempted comeback failed completely, not helped by the way that many Senate voters seem to ignore the independent tickets with no name above the line when allocating preferences. True, but there is no doubt that the "Teal Independents" took some leaves out of his book, and used them to great effect. Yep though Sharkie holding her seat with Climate 200 backing and funding was the only teal success in South Australia. |
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Post by markgoodair on Jun 17, 2022 7:24:54 GMT
Pauline Hanson has officially won the fifth Queensland Senate seat.
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Post by timrollpickering on Jun 17, 2022 12:53:50 GMT
Clive Palmer's elimination directly resulted in the Greens hitting quota to gain a seat from the LNP. I wonder if that factoid will enter political mythology like some of the other transfers over the years.
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Post by timrollpickering on Jun 17, 2022 16:31:12 GMT
The other three states haven't yet had the button press but the outcome looks as follows:
New South Wales - 3 Coalition (2 Liberal, 1 National), 2 Labor, 1 Green
An unambiguous Green gain from Labor. In addition another sort of National gain from the Liberals or hold depending on how you look at it - the Nationals had a long term seat in the 2016 allocation but the Senator was disqualified in the citizenship crisis and the recount allocated the seat to the Liberals with no obvious way to hand it back given the "same party" rules on replacements.
Western Australia - For definite 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 Green. The sixth seat is most likely Labor.
The sixth seat starts as likely Labor but there's been much speculation that the Liberals could retain it on transfers. If they don't (as seems likely) then Labor gain from Liberal and for the first time since the current Senate size was reached a six member election in WA finishes as something other than 3 Liberal 2 Labor 1 other (Green or once upon a time Democrat).
Victoria - For definite 2 Coalition (1 Liberal, 1 National), 2 Labor, 1 Green. Sixth seat battle royale.
The five definite seats are all holds. The sixth seat is a Liberal defence with the UAP leading on first preferences, the Liberals more preference friendly and Labor potentially overtaking the UAP making it hard to call.
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Post by markgoodair on Jun 20, 2022 2:49:19 GMT
The UAP take the 6th and final Senate seat in Victoria.
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iain
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Post by iain on Jun 20, 2022 7:57:20 GMT
And Labor do take the sixth in WA - gives Labor+Green+Pocock a majority in the Senate.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 21, 2022 13:27:09 GMT
And Labor do take the sixth in WA - gives Labor+Green+Pocock a majority in the Senate. I suspect the Jacqui Lambie Network will also play an important role. Lambie was originally elected for the Palmers United Party and had some pretty far right opinions, but she has since evolved into a basically left wing politician (albeit not a Green type left) and mostly votes with Labour these days, especially on economics. |
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willpower3
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Post by willpower3 on Jun 21, 2022 15:13:07 GMT
Has the count fully been completed yet? If so then turnout is 89.7%, which I think might be the lowest federally since compulsory voting was introduced just after the First World War.
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