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Post by rcronald on Mar 29, 2022 20:45:06 GMT
All theories are welcome 😊
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Post by Deleted on Mar 29, 2022 21:00:16 GMT
What if John Smith lived?
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Mar 30, 2022 0:40:04 GMT
What if John Smith lived? He would have become Prime Minister in 1997 with a majority of about 120. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 1, 2022 10:11:40 GMT
What if John Smith lived? He would have become Prime Minister in 1997 with a majority of about 120. An alternate timeline with Smith as PM and Donald Dewar as Scottish First Minister for longer would be fascinating. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Apr 2, 2022 14:11:37 GMT
At the height of the instability of the 1960s, the Guomindang on Taiwan were feverishly preparing for Project National Glory, Guóguāng Jìhuà, to liberate the mainland from the CCP, but it never went ahead as it lacked US political support. One proposal, also shot down by the US, was even for the ROC to launch an invasion of Guangdong province in order to support America's Vietnam campaign. I have sometimes thought about what would have happened if the US had given political support and the ROC had launched that invasion. Personally, I think it depends. If the war was launched whilst America was in Vietnam I don't think it would have got much support and the invasion force of upwards of a quarter of a million men would have been ground down. However, if Kennedy had lived in 1963 and gone ahead with the Vietnam withdrawal he is alleged by many to have planned, and militarily supported the invasion with logistics and airpower once Chiang established a beachhead, I think it's possible that an area of control could have been established across Southern China. This was a region that was very unstable during the 1960s, with Guangxi Province in virtual civil war by the middle of the decade, and I think it is possible that PRC authority would have collapsed in the region. It would have been hard to break out north of the line between Lake Poyang, which has its back to the Yangtze River which effectively cuts China in half, and the Sea, but this would have created essentially a Korean scenario, which would have been a success. I also think pushing against China would have been a powerful pull if America had withdrawn from Vietnam, with RVN's inevitable collapse leaving the Domino Theory seemingly being vindicated. I also think that the pragmatic conservatives in the Kremlin would also have secretly welcomed a Korean scenario in Southern China given the inevitable weakening of the PRC giving them an edge in the Sino-Soviet split.
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Post by afleitch on Apr 4, 2022 11:52:31 GMT
What if John Smith lived? If he survived his heart attack he would resign. His presence would boost both Brown and Beckett in their respective bids. Brown's terrible polling amongst Labour members would still be evident. If 'the pact' happened, the timeline is pretty much the same. If it doesn't, Brown wins against Beckett narrowly (who remains as Deputy) and I think in any timeline Brown wouldn't be a great leader. But enough to win. If Labour can't sustain a plus ten lead going into mid 1995, Major resigns (for sightly different reasons) and Portillo (who in reality was preparing for a potential second round) wins. That makes a 1997 GE somewhat more interesting. If Labour sustain Smith like levels of support because people are just sick of the Tories then Labour win with an 80-120 majority. |
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Post by rcronald on Apr 4, 2022 12:54:48 GMT
What if Rabin wasn’t Assassinated in 1995?
1.It is well known today that Rabin planned to withdraw from the Oslo accords so there is a decent chance he withdraws from them.
2.Bibi wins the election by 10%-15% like the polls showed before the assassination instead of his 1% win against Peres in 1996 where people were shamed into voting Peres.
Give me your theories 😊
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Post by Deleted on Apr 4, 2022 13:00:06 GMT
What if John Smith lived? If he survived his heart attack he would resign. His presence would boost both Brown and Beckett in their respective bids. Brown's terrible polling amongst Labour members would still be evident. If 'the pact' happened, the timeline is pretty much the same. If it doesn't, Brown wins against Beckett narrowly (who remains as Deputy) and I think in any timeline Brown wouldn't be a great leader. But enough to win. If Labour can't sustain a plus ten lead going into mid 1995, Major resigns (for sightly different reasons) and Portillo (who in reality was preparing for a potential second round) wins. That makes a 1997 GE somewhat more interesting. If Labour sustain Smith like levels of support because people are just sick of the Tories then Labour win with an 80-120 majority. Gordon Brown vs Michael Portillo in 1997! Who wins? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2022 4:18:49 GMT
Portillo. Because this scenario requires that Portillo is the sitting PM, and we would never have had the back-to-basics fiasco, Clause 28 would already have been repealed, and we would have both an economy and a society that was forward-looking, not harking to spinsters cycling to Evensong. Blair might have stood a chance against that, Brown would not. What's the Tory majority in 1997? |
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Apr 11, 2022 7:23:54 GMT
Election 1983 Alliance 27.6%, Labour 25.4%
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 11, 2022 9:33:31 GMT
Portillo. Because this scenario requires that Portillo is the sitting PM, and we would never have had the back-to-basics fiasco, Clause 28 would already have been repealed, and we would have both an economy and a society that was forward-looking, not harking to spinsters cycling to Evensong. Blair might have stood a chance against that, Brown would not. OK then, I'm now convinced you are projecting the post-1997 Portillo onto the previous version. The latter would have had absolutely no interest in repealing a flagship piece of late Thatcher legislation, and was one of those making speeches on "moral values" and egging Major on to make his ultimately disastrous 1993 conference speech. There's a reason why that quickie book on Blair's landslide had the title it did. One thing I do recall about election night in 1997 was how he almost seemed relieved to lose. I'm sure he admitted subsequently that his previous persona was to a large degree an act, and one that over time he came to almost despise. Now, his winning the Tory leadership in 2001 - that is an interesting counter-factual. |
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Post by londonseal80 on Apr 12, 2022 6:07:37 GMT
The Monster Raving Loony Party won the 2003 Brent East by election?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2022 6:08:51 GMT
What if William Hague lost the 1989 Richmond by-election?
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Apr 12, 2022 10:07:09 GMT
What if William Hague lost the 1989 Richmond by-election? To whom? The Social and Liberal Democrats, or the SDP who actually came second? |
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Post by michaelarden on Apr 12, 2022 10:15:56 GMT
What if William Hague lost the 1989 Richmond by-election? To whom? The Social and Liberal Democrats, or the SDP who actually came second? The interesting one would be the SDP. How would the LD/SDP split end if the Owen faction were boosted by a by-election win? I suspect some for of SDP/Lib Dem alliance would have merged out of a few more years of internecine fighting with the 1992 election a bloodbath. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 12, 2022 14:32:06 GMT
What if William Hague lost the 1989 Richmond by-election? Would Hague become leader if he was only first elected in 1992? |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Apr 12, 2022 16:07:50 GMT
Maggie had won on the first ballot in 1990.
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Apr 12, 2022 22:18:39 GMT
What if William Hague lost the 1989 Richmond by-election? To whom? The Social and Liberal Democrats, or the SDP who actually came second? The success of the SDP candidate in Richmond in 1989 was as if he were a popular local Independent. Even if he had won, it would have made no substantial difference to the eventual collapse of the SDP, or the timetable thereof. |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Apr 12, 2022 22:22:22 GMT
The documentary programme this week about the relationship between Thatcher & Reagan said that they only achieved as much as they did because they were both there as a team. If either Reagan had not been President, or Thatcher had not been Prime Minister (not at the same time, or for not so long), or both, would the USSR have collapse as quickly as it did, or at all? Would Gorbachev have come to power, and achieved what he did?
I think so. The USSR collapsed for its own internal reasons. Reagan might have helped it along a bit, or helped to manage the propaganda, but the essence would have been the same.
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Post by greenhert on Apr 14, 2022 21:34:09 GMT
What if James Callaghan had lost a vote of no confidence in 1978 instead of 1979? He survived the lesser-known 1978 vote of no confidence only because the Ulster Unionists pledged to support him.
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