The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 8, 2022 9:54:42 GMT
Up to a point, perhaps. High Peak was the party's first loss for a couple of months, having picked up a few gains in that period. Their first loss since an absolute hammering in Manchester and since which there have been very few Labour defences. There were some, all held. Meanwhile as I said, they made a few gains. The point is that to claim Labour's showing has been universally awful since last autumn is a considerable exaggeration. (btw the Manchester result was an example of what we were discussing last week, ie the circumstances of a byelection can sometimes significantly shape the outcome) |
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Post by grahammurray on Apr 8, 2022 10:36:00 GMT
Their first loss since an absolute hammering in Manchester and since which there have been very few Labour defences. There were some, all held. Meanwhile as I said, they made a few gains. The point is that to claim Labour's showing has been universally awful since last autumn is a considerable exaggeration. (btw the Manchester result was an example of what we were discussing last week, ie the circumstances of a byelection can sometimes significantly shape the outcome) It's difficult to blame the result on the circumstances when the circumstances were entirely created by the party. The Tories tried that after th North Shropshire result. |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 8, 2022 10:46:42 GMT
There were some, all held. Meanwhile as I said, they made a few gains. The point is that to claim Labour's showing has been universally awful since last autumn is a considerable exaggeration. (btw the Manchester result was an example of what we were discussing last week, ie the circumstances of a byelection can sometimes significantly shape the outcome) It's difficult to blame the result on the circumstances when the circumstances were entirely created by the party. The Tories tried that after th North Shropshire result. There’s a difference between blaming and factoring in; if you want to use North Shropshire as an example, clearly many Tories stayed home or switched to the LDs in protest at Paterson’s behaviour, whereas the snoozefest in Old Bexley and Sidcup was partly down to residual support and sympathy for James Brokenshire not driving Tories away or giving them a reason to stay at home. It’s never a perfect theory - Chesham and Amersham was an exception - and there are often other extenuating factors (planning law reform in C&A) but it would be foolish to discount the circumstances of a by-election as a factor in the result - indeed some of this parish are attributing Labour’s performance in Telford to the selection of the deceased councillor’s widower, and not to the wider political environment. |
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Post by phil156 on Apr 8, 2022 10:49:54 GMT
We missing the person that does the swings etc on those great informative charts this week. Hope he is ok but may be on holiday
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Post by andrewp on Apr 8, 2022 10:54:10 GMT
We missing the person that does the swings etc on those great informative charts this week. Hope he is ok but may be on holiday Yes, he said he was away for a couple of days, and will do it at the weekend. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Apr 8, 2022 11:04:17 GMT
South East Greens
@segreenparty
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1m
Breaking News: Green gain from the Conservatives in Storrington & Washington (Horsham District Council)
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,140
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Post by cogload on Apr 8, 2022 11:06:45 GMT
South East Greens @segreenparty · 1m Breaking News: Green gain from the Conservatives in Storrington & Washington (Horsham District Council) Outsider of 3. I had hoped we would sneak home here, so am a bit disappointed. Well done the Greens though. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 8, 2022 11:12:08 GMT
So a pretty unremittingly awful set of results for the Tories, with the sole exception of High Peak. Which does make you wonder even more what happened there.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Apr 8, 2022 11:13:42 GMT
South East Greens @segreenparty · 1m Breaking News: Green gain from the Conservatives in Storrington & Washington (Horsham District Council) Outsider of 3. I had hoped we would sneak home here, so am a bit disappointed. Well done the Greens though. LibDems have been a bit weak in the southern part of the district since Derek Deedman went. Not just because it's rural, it just feels a long way from Horsham town for most people. They tend to look to Worthing as their main centre. Having said that, still quite astonished the Greens have gone from nowhere to winning. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,140
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Post by cogload on Apr 8, 2022 11:15:15 GMT
Does the ward border the increasingly legendary Knepp Estate? A hotbed of alternative farming thinking and an astonishing lesson in wildlife recovery.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 8, 2022 11:23:13 GMT
Outsider of 3. I had hoped we would sneak home here, so am a bit disappointed. Well done the Greens though. LibDems have been a bit weak in the southern part of the district since Derek Deedman went. Not just because it's rural, it just feels a long way from Horsham town for most people. They tend to look to Worthing as their main centre. Having said that, still quite astonished the Greens have gone from nowhere to winning. Not quite from nowhere- have a look at the county division result from last May. Greens were a clear second then, and as you say they tend to be stronger in the south of the district - both the wards with Green councillors are in the South. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Apr 8, 2022 11:23:50 GMT
Horsham result, from SE Green Party
1281 Green
943 Conservative
453 LibDem
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Post by jamesdoyle on Apr 8, 2022 11:24:53 GMT
GWBWI
Grn: +224
LDm: +156
Lab: -94
Con: -298
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 8, 2022 11:26:29 GMT
It's difficult to blame the result on the circumstances when the circumstances were entirely created by the party. The Tories tried that after th North Shropshire result. There’s a difference between blaming and factoring in; if you want to use North Shropshire as an example, clearly many Tories stayed home or switched to the LDs in protest at Paterson’s behaviour, whereas the snoozefest in Old Bexley and Sidcup was partly down to residual support and sympathy for James Brokenshire not driving Tories away or giving them a reason to stay at home. It’s never a perfect theory - Chesham and Amersham was an exception - and there are often other extenuating factors (planning law reform in C&A) but it would be foolish to discount the circumstances of a by-election as a factor in the result - indeed some of this parish are attributing Labour’s performance in Telford to the selection of the deceased councillor’s widower, and not to the wider political environment. In this lot of elections, the Tory candidate in Mid Devon was the wife of the sitting Tory councillor for the ward - LibDems still won. |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 8, 2022 11:31:05 GMT
There’s a difference between blaming and factoring in; if you want to use North Shropshire as an example, clearly many Tories stayed home or switched to the LDs in protest at Paterson’s behaviour, whereas the snoozefest in Old Bexley and Sidcup was partly down to residual support and sympathy for James Brokenshire not driving Tories away or giving them a reason to stay at home. It’s never a perfect theory - Chesham and Amersham was an exception - and there are often other extenuating factors (planning law reform in C&A) but it would be foolish to discount the circumstances of a by-election as a factor in the result - indeed some of this parish are attributing Labour’s performance in Telford to the selection of the deceased councillor’s widower, and not to the wider political environment. In this lot of elections, the Tory candidate in Mid Devon was the wife of the sitting Tory councillor for the ward - LibDems still won. I think she’s the wife of the other Ward councillor/County councillor, the resigning councillor was a 90-something year old named Elaine. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Apr 8, 2022 11:36:22 GMT
LibDems have been a bit weak in the southern part of the district since Derek Deedman went. Not just because it's rural, it just feels a long way from Horsham town for most people. They tend to look to Worthing as their main centre. Having said that, still quite astonished the Greens have gone from nowhere to winning. Not quite from nowhere- have a look at the county division result from last May. Greens were a clear second then, and as you say they tend to be stronger in the south of the district - both the wards with Green councillors are in the South. That is true. I had been focused on the district history, and was literally looking up the county results when you posted! Storrington is the sort of place where, if Joan wants to stick around,the Tories won't shift her for twenty years. |
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Post by andrewp on Apr 8, 2022 11:49:45 GMT
The Green winner in Storrington apologised for one of her leafletters removing Conservative leaflets
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Post by jamesdoyle on Apr 8, 2022 11:54:56 GMT
The Green winner in Storrington apologised for one of her leafletters removing Conservative leaflets Which Tory agent didn't tell his deliverers to put it all the way through? Fire their a*s. And of course, no Tory ever has swiped an opponent's leaflet. Waa, waa, waa. |
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Post by lackeroftalent on Apr 8, 2022 12:00:05 GMT
Leaflet school - Lesson 1.
Leaflet all the way through the letterbox to prevent exactly this.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,729
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Post by Chris from Brum on Apr 8, 2022 12:05:53 GMT
Leaflet school - Lesson 1. Leaflet all the way through the letterbox to prevent exactly this. Quite. If it's not all the way through, it doesn't count as delivered. And if it's dropped on the mat outside the door, it's fair game. But only if unaddressed - addressed mail is a no-no. |
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