Local Council by-elections 7th April 2022

[Robert Waller]

All the details of those declaring tonight, except Liverpool, where they have two, before midnight ... pretty good!

[olympian95]

Labour hold Warbreck in Liverpool

[BucksDucks]

Close in Warbreck, Liverpool but Labour hold ahead of Lib Dems.

[Adam in Stroud]

Apr 7, 2022 23:10:48 GMT BucksDucks said:

Close in Warbreck, Liverpool but Labour hold ahead of Lib Dems.

Bloody hell, that was close for us. A very good night for us overall, I would think the Greens must be pleased and the Tories happy with High Peak. Mediocre for Labour I would have thought, though successful defences are never to be sniffed at.

[peterl]

Overall a pretty poor night for the Tories I would say. One gain, but two losses and cutting into a low majority on Dorset at that. Good night for us, very good for the Lib Dems, not so great for Labour.

[andrewp]

Liverpool, Warbreck

Lab 912
LD 874
Green 61
Con 46

[Strontium Dog]

Apr 7, 2022 22:35:03 GMT olympian95 said:

Lab hold in Everton (Liverpool MBC)

Obviously the selection of the Labour candidate was a complete stitch-up.

But on the plus side, we have a new entry for the good looking councillors thread.

[andrewp]

Liverpool. Everton

Lab 925
Green 362
Liberal 84
Con 51
TUSC 46
LD 25

[John Chanin]

Labour are actually doing very poorly in local by-elections, taken as a whole over the last 6 months or so, despite showing a lead in opinion polls. Some of this is likely turnout, but it shows that Labour support is very soft, and local campaigning is not what it once was.

Of course it is Conservative government policy to load as many cuts as possible onto local government, so that councils get the blame rather than them, and it is a successful strategy. Councils of all stripes are in a parlous state, and the general public who unsurprisingly don't understand what is going on, blame the council for service deterioration and environmental decay. However anti-council votes in Conservative councils are not going to Labour, whereas anti-council votes in Labour councils frequently are going to the Conservatives.

Am however a little encouraged by the Brookside result. Labour have taken a real tanking in places like this over the last 7 years, despite their deprived and rundown nature (decaying new town is Brookside), and Labour might actually be able to hold Telford council.

[Chris from Brum]

Apr 7, 2022 23:57:41 GMT andrewp said:

Liverpool, Warbreck

Lab 912
LD 874
Green 61
Con 46

Lib Dems looking perky in Warbreck.

[matureleft]

Apr 8, 2022 6:54:05 GMT John Chanin said:

Labour are actually doing very poorly in local by-elections, taken as a whole over the last 6 months or so, despite showing a lead in opinion polls. Some of this is likely turnout, but it shows that Labour support is very soft, and local campaigning is not what it once was.

Of course it is Conservative government policy to load as many cuts as possible onto local government, so that councils get the blame rather than them, and it is a successful strategy. Councils of all stripes are in a parlous state, and the general public who unsurprisingly don't understand what is going on, blame the council for service deterioration and environmental decay. However anti-council votes in Conservative councils are not going to Labour, whereas anti-council votes in Labour councils frequently are going to the Conservatives.

Am however a little encouraged by the Brookside result. Labour have taken a real tanking in places like this over the last 7 years, despite their deprived and rundown nature (decaying new town Brookside), and Labour might actually be able to hold Telford council.

Fair points. There are always local factors, including around individual candidates, but the broad picture is ordinary at best for the main opposition party half way through a parliament and with a fairly auspicious set of national circumstances.

Obviously the May elections will give a wider and more representative picture. I suspect it’ll be even more patchy than normal (there are always “how did that happen?” results). There isn’t a tidal surge against the government as occurs in some Parliaments where almost every boat is lifted, regardless of endeavour. And there’s a fair amount of cynicism and negativity - it’s not so much “they are doing their best” (whatever that really means) but “would anyone else do better?”.

[andrewp]

Apr 8, 2022 6:54:05 GMT John Chanin said:

Labour are actually doing very poorly in local by-elections, taken as a whole over the last 6 months or so, despite showing a lead in opinion polls. Some of this is likely turnout, but it shows that Labour support is very soft, and local campaigning is not what it once was.

Of course it is Conservative government policy to load as many cuts as possible onto local government, so that councils get the blame rather than them, and it is a successful strategy. Councils of all stripes are in a parlous state, and the general public who unsurprisingly don't understand what is going on, blame the council for service deterioration and environmental decay. However anti-council votes in Conservative councils are not going to Labour, whereas anti-council votes in Labour councils frequently are going to the Conservatives.

Am however a little encouraged by the Brookside result. Labour have taken a real tanking in places like this over the last 7 years, despite their deprived and rundown nature (decaying new town is Brookside), and Labour might actually be able to hold Telford council.

I think it’s probably reasonable to assume that Labour fielding the widower of the deceased councillor as their candidate in Brookside meant that  they did a bit better than they otherwise would have done.

[ricmk]

Guessing the Lib Dems will have a stonking (no Auto-correct, I did not mean stinking‘) GWBWI especially if Horsham is good. Looked like thin pickings this week but 2 gains and a near miss from nowhere are very encouraging.

[threecrowns]

The South Hunsley result shouldn't come as a big surprise. An Amazon warehouse is to be built within the ward - that part of the A63 corridor is NIMBY central, full of Hyacinth Bucket types. The LDs latched on to this and turned it into pretty much the only issue in the election.

[Chris from Brum]

Apr 8, 2022 7:50:34 GMT ricmk said:

Guessing the Lib Dems will have a stonking (no Auto-correct, I did not mean stinking‘) GWBWI especially if Horsham is good. Looked like thin pickings this week but 2 gains and a near miss from nowhere are very encouraging.

I also thought that gains were probably out of reach this week, so nice to see the various local machines have been greased and oiled recently.

[Chris from Brum]

Apr 8, 2022 8:10:00 GMT threecrowns said:

The South Hunsley result shouldn't come as a big surprise. An Amazon warehouse is to be built within the ward - that part of the A63 corridor is NIMBY central, full of Hyacinth Bucket types. The LDs latched on to this and turned it into pretty much the only issue in the election.

It does when Andrew Teale says "South Hunsley ward has returned Conservative councillors throughout this century and is now a very safe ward for the party. "  Granted we held it up until 2003, but we'd fallen back to third in 2011 and 2015, and were still a pretty distant second last time out.  If an effective single-issue campaign is the way to get back in, then so be it, that's how politics works sometimes.

[threecrowns]

Absolutely right, it was not meant as a criticism in any way.

[Merseymike]

I think Labour have lost a lot of members and many of those are people who were prepared to do the leafletting. And there are people who have stayed in the party but don't intend to do any work at the moment.
Labour councillors appear to be doing a lot of their own leaflet delivery.
Obviously lower turnouts, local factors and so on but I don't think there is a great deal of positive motivation with regard to Labour at the moment.

[The Bishop]

Apr 8, 2022 6:54:05 GMT John Chanin said:

Labour are actually doing very poorly in local by-elections, taken as a whole over the last 6 months or so, despite showing a lead in opinion polls

Up to a point, perhaps. High Peak was the party's first loss for a couple of months, having picked up a few gains in that period.

[grahammurray]

Apr 8, 2022 9:24:48 GMT The Bishop said:

Apr 8, 2022 6:54:05 GMT John Chanin said:

Labour are actually doing very poorly in local by-elections, taken as a whole over the last 6 months or so, despite showing a lead in opinion polls

Up to a point, perhaps. High Peak was the party's first loss for a couple of months, having picked up a few gains in that period.

Their first loss since an absolute hammering in Manchester and since which there have been very few Labour defences.