Local Council by-elections 7th April 2022

[Tony Otim]

DORSET UA; Lyme & Charmouth (Con resigned)
Candidates:
BAWDEN, Belinda (Green)
HART, David (Labour)
REYNOLDS, Cheryl Lesley (Independent)
STOCQUELER, Vicci (Conservative)

2019: Con 756; Ind 571; Grn 317; Lab 239

Cheryl Reynolds was the runner up in 2019.

Current Council: Con 43; LD 28; Alliance for Local Living (Ind) 5; Grn 4; Lab 1; 1 vacancy



EAST RIDING OF YORKSHIRE UA; South Hunsley (Con died)
Candidates:
ARNOLD, Stewart (Green)
CORLESS, Margaret (Liberal Democrat)
HOPTON, Paul Kenneth (Conservative)
TAYLOR, Dafydd (Labour)

2019: Con 1947, 1656; LD 406, 378; Lab 335, 276; UKIP 296
2015: Con 4281, 3185; Lab 989, 852; LD 711, 579
2011: Con 2688, 2441; Lab 631, 576; LD 468, 386
2007: Con 2446, 2293; LD 764, 686; Lab 251
2003: Con 1789, 1754; LD 1575, 1462; Lab 176, 159

Dafydd Taylor was the top Labour candidate here in 2019.

Current Council: Con 46; LD 9; Ind Grp 7; Ind 2; Yorkshire Party 2; 1 vacancy



HIGH PEAK DC; Cote Heath (Lab died)
Candidates:
CROOK, Peter Colin (Green)
KIRKHAM, Kev (Conservative)
SMITH, Alan Geoffrey (Labour)

2019: Con 477, 407; Lab 475, 452
2015: Con 965, 880; Lab 648, 642; Ind 263; Grn 205

Peter Crook was the Green candidate in Buxton North & East division (which contains this ward) last May.

Current Council: Lab 21; Con 16; LD 3; Grn 2; 1 vacancy



HORSHAM DC; Storrington & Washington (Con resigned)
Candidates:
GRECH, Joan (Green)
HALL, Daniel (Conservative)
ROBERTS, Pascal (Liberal Democrat)

Dec 19by: Con 3283; LD 1344; Lab 924
2019: Con 1584, 1536, 1439; LD 939; Lab 562

Current Council: Con 30; LD 13; Grn 2; Ind 1; 2 vacancies



LIVERPOOL MBC; Everton (lab resigned)
Candidates:
BANNISTER, Roger (TUSC)
BYRNE, Ellie Mary (Labour)
FITZSIMMONS, Steve (Liberal Democrat)
HINE, Wendy Rose (Conservative)
PRESTON, Angela Therese (Liberal Party)
ROBINSON-HALE, Kevin (Green)

2021: Lab 1741; Ind 286; Grn 271; Con 166; Lib 101; LD 100
2019: Lab 2036; Grn 201; LD 96; Con 68; Lib 64
2018: Lab 2295; Con 136; Grn 100; Lib 60; LD 59
2016: Lab 2136; Grn 210; Lib 185; Con 97
2015: Lab 4984; UKIP 510; Con 201; Grn 181; Lib 117; TUSC 92
2014: Lab 2056; UKIP 557; Grn 125; TUSC 89; Lib 66; Con 66
2012: Lab 2548; Grn 182; Lib 88; Con 67; British Freedom Party 50
2011: Lab 2562; Con 127; BNP 126; Grn 100; Lib 79
2010: Lab 3623; Lib 532; BNP 281; Con 278; Grn 134
2008: Lab 1678; BNP 222; Con 130; LD 120; Grn 102; Lib 78
2007: Lab 1675; LD 233; BNP 154; Lib 108; Con 104
2006: Lab 1519; LD 296; Con 140; Grn 137; Lib 117
2004: Lab 1834, 1827, 1678; LD 453, 424, 389; Liverpool Labour Community Party 320; Grn 270; Lib 268, 192; Ind 212

Kevin Robinson-Hale was the Green candidate here last May. The indepedendent last May was the long-serving incumbent councillor elected as Labour.


LIVERPOOL MBC; Warbreck (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
AFFORD, Karen Elisabeth (Liberal Democrats)
BUTCHARD, Mark (Conservative)
EAST, Sam (Labour)
LAWSON, Rebecca (Green)

2021: Lab 2107; LD 460; Grn 247; Con 226; Lib 74
2019: Lab 2240; Grn 221; LD 156; Con 105; Lib 58
2018: Lab 2321; LD 228; Con 190; Grn 126; Lib 38
2016: Lab 2166; LD 435; Grn 197; ED 127; Con 81; Lib 74
2015: Lab 5379; UKIP 627; LD 494; Grn 310; Con 202; TUSC 87; Lib 38; ED 25
2014: Lab 2138; UKIP 577; LD 292; Grn 136; Con 84; ED 40; Lib 37
2012: Lab 2724; LD 312; ED 216; Grn 118; Lib 75; Con 67
2011: Lab 3190; LD 337; UKIP 124; Con 110; Lib 66; ED 55; Grn 34
2010: Lab 3761; LD 2238; Con 248; Grn 161
2008: Lab 1852; LD 724; BNP 198; Con 154; Lib 146; Grn 99
Sep 07by: Lab 1796; LD 1024; BNP 136;Ind 131; UKIP 52; Grn 45; Con 40; Liverpool Labour Community Party 32
2007: Lab 1837; LD 1643; BNP 178; Con 66; Grn 50
2006: LD 1380; Lab 1353; Lib 185; Con 135
2004: LD 2643, 2450, 2309; Lab 1217, 970, 952; Lib 127

Karen Afford (LD) and Mark Butchard (Con) were the candidates for their respective parties here last May.

Current Council: Lab 64; LD 12; Grn 4; Ind 4; Lib 4; 2 vacancies



MID DEVON DC; Cullompton South (Ind resigned)
Candidates:
BERRY, Rosemary (Conservative)
BUCZKOWSKI, James Timothy (Liberal Democrat)
CHAMBERLAIN, Jason (Labour)

2019: Con 339, 256; Ind 310; LD 225, 195; Lib 161
2015: Ind 810, 728, 493; Con 593, 562;
2011: Ind 759, 456, 415; LD 234
2007: Ind 547, 419, 261; Con 250, 194
Jul 04 by: Con 255; LD 219; Ind 101, 82
2003: Ind 359, 344, 185; LD 225, 217;

The Conservative incumbent for the ward is John Berry, Rosemary is perhaps a relation – she was also councillor for Cullompton Outer ward from 2015 to 2019.

Current Council: Con 20: LD 10; Not specified 6; New Ind 3; Grn 2; 1 vacancy



TELFORD & WREKIN UA; Brookside (Lab died)
Candidates:
HOWARD, Paul Martin (Liberal Democrat)
LEACH, Christopher (Conservative)
LOVERIDGE, James George (Labour)

2019: Lab 519, 488; Con 314, 189; UKIP 270; LD 236
2015: Lab 931, 869; Con 660, 631; UKIP 591, 453; Grn 164

The deceased councillor was Jackie Loveridge, so James is presumably related.

Current CouncIl: Lab 34; Con 14; LD 4; Ind 1; 1 vacancy



WOLVERHAMPTON MBC; East park (Ind elected as Lab resigned)
Candidates:
DALEY, Lovinyer Corrine (Labour)
HALL, Steve (Conservative)

2021: Lab 1207; Con 882; Grn 140
2019: Lab 1013; Ind 395; Con 299
2018: Lab 1208; Con 353; Ind 249
2016: Lab 1022; UKIP 386; Con 303; Grn 50; Ind 50
2015: Lab 2261; Con 1033; UKIP 880; Grn 144; Ind 34
2014: Lab 1151; UKIP 692; Con 411; Grn 93
2012 Lab 1244; Con 653; LD 112
2011: Lab 1763; Con 1058
2010: Lab 2040; Con 1199; LD 914; BNP 391
2008: Con 1309; Lab 975; LD 528
2007: Lab 1182; Con 531; LD 436; Ind 402
2006: Lab 1351; Con 733; LD 472
2004: Lab 1253, 1149, 1087; UKIP 558; Con 551, 522, 492; LD 377

Steve Hall was the Conservative councillor for the ward elected in 2008, he was Conservative candidate in 2012, 2014, 2015 and 2021 and Independent candidate in 2007, 2018 and 2019.

Current Council: Lab 43; Con 16; 1 vacancy

[Tony Otim]

There is a very special punishment reserved for the person who designed the councillor information system on the High Peak Staffordshire Moorlands website - when you filter by political party, it gives you a list of councillors from both councils all jumbled together...

[andrewp]

In Cullompton, John and Rosemary Berry are husband and wife.

[greenhert]

Mar 14, 2022 20:47:14 GMT Tony Otim said:

There is a very special punishment reserved for the person who designed the councillor information system on the High Peak Staffordshire Moorlands website - when you filter by political party, it gives you a list of councillors from both councils all jumbled together...

Actually there are separate pages for High Peak Councillors and Staffordshire Moorlands Councillors.

An unusual website pairing by any standards-Staffordshire Moorlands and High Peak are not even in the same region, let alone the same county (although arguably neither council area really belongs in the Midlands).

[Tony Otim]

Mar 14, 2022 21:26:39 GMT greenhert said:

Mar 14, 2022 20:47:14 GMT Tony Otim said:

There is a very special punishment reserved for the person who designed the councillor information system on the High Peak Staffordshire Moorlands website - when you filter by political party, it gives you a list of councillors from both councils all jumbled together...

Actually there are separate pages for High Peak Councillors and Staffordshire Moorlands Councillors.

An unusual website pairing by any standards-Staffordshire Moorlands and High Peak are not even in the same region, let alone the same county (although arguably neither council area really belongs in the Midlands).

Yes - there are separate pages (which is how I eventually did things), but you can't sort those pages by party, which makes it easier to check totals and when you use the Find councillors function by party (here: democracy.highpeak.gov.uk/mgFindMember.aspx) it jumbles both councils together, which is just crap.

[ilerda]

Is ARNOLD, Stewart (Green) in the East Riding by-election the former leader (and founder??) of the Yorkshire Party?

[Tony Otim]

Mar 14, 2022 22:28:07 GMT ilerda said:

Is ARNOLD, Stewart (Green) in the East Riding by-election the former leader (and founder??) of the Yorkshire Party?

Don't know - it's not that uncommon a name.

All 4 candidates give addresses in Swanland, iirc, which is in this ward so all 4 are local anyway.

[lackeroftalent]

Yes is the answer.

[mark1968]

Mar 15, 2022 13:22:36 GMT lackeroftalent said:

Yes is the answer.

 So that is the third party he has been a member of (LD, Yorkshire, Green). His partner is Diana Wallis ex Euro MP for Yorkshire and Humber, Back in her LD days she was councillor for this ward 1994 - 2003 , although the boundaries were different. My understanding is that the Lib Dems are throwing everything into this by-election. 

[andrea]

Mar 14, 2022 20:45:29 GMT Tony Otim said:

D


LIVERPOOL MBC; Everton (lab resigned)
Candidates:
BANNISTER, Roger (TUSC)
BYRNE, Ellie Mary (Labour)
FITZSIMMONS, Steve (Liberal Democrat)
HINE, Wendy Rose (Conservative)
PRESTON, Angela Therese (Liberal Party)
ROBINSON-HALE, Kevin (Green)

2021: Lab 1741; Ind 286; Grn 271; Con 166; Lib 101; LD 100
2019: Lab 2036; Grn 201; LD 96; Con 68; Lib 64
2018: Lab 2295; Con 136; Grn 100; Lib 60; LD 59
2016: Lab 2136; Grn 210; Lib 185; Con 97
2015: Lab 4984; UKIP 510; Con 201; Grn 181; Lib 117; TUSC 92
2014: Lab 2056; UKIP 557; Grn 125; TUSC 89; Lib 66; Con 66
2012: Lab 2548; Grn 182; Lib 88; Con 67; British Freedom Party 50
2011: Lab 2562; Con 127; BNP 126; Grn 100; Lib 79
2010: Lab 3623; Lib 532; BNP 281; Con 278; Grn 134
2008: Lab 1678; BNP 222; Con 130; LD 120; Grn 102; Lib 78
2007: Lab 1675; LD 233; BNP 154; Lib 108; Con 104
2006: Lab 1519; LD 296; Con 140; Grn 137; Lib 117
2004: Lab 1834, 1827, 1678; LD 453, 424, 389; Liverpool Labour Community Party 320; Grn 270; Lib 268, 192; Ind 212

Kevin Robinson-Hale was the Green candidate here last May. The indepedendent last May was the long-serving incumbent councillor elected as Labour.

Ellie Byrne is the daughter of Ian Byrne MP (whose resignation caused the by-election).

[shadsy]

Smarkets have some odds in High Peak.
smarkets.com/event/42671262/politics/uk/by-elections/2022/04/07/21-00/cote-heath-by-election

[peterl]

Lyme and Charmouth will be an on the night count.

[swix]

Apr 1, 2022 13:59:45 GMT shadsy said:

Smarkets have some odds in High Peak.
smarkets.com/event/42671262/politics/uk/by-elections/2022/04/07/21-00/cote-heath-by-election

Tories favourites? Hmmm.

[Andrew_S]

The elections in Telford and Wolverhampton will be particularly interesting. So-called "Red Wall" areas with small Labour majorities.

[middleenglander]

I am away for a couple of nights so will do my usual analysis on our return at the weekend.

[Deleted]

The outgoing Conservative councillor in Lyme and Charmouth (whose grievances with some elements of the Dorset Conservative group weren't exactly secret) endorses the Green candidate.

[Chris from Brum]

Andrew's Previews here a little earlier than normal.

medium.com/britainelects/andrew-teales-council-by-election-previews-for-7th-april-2022-4e3460f4788a

[Robert Waller]

www.google.com/maps/place/Buxton/

A little to add to Andrew on the High Peak Cote Heath ward.

As Andrew says, this is essentially the southern ward of Buxton, and generally speaking a classic Labour-Conservative marginal, swinging with the tide, with the exception of the period 1983-95 when it was held by the Liberal-SDP Alliance then the Liberal Democrats.

There are three distinct sections of the ward apart from some odds and sods like the outlying hamlets of Staden and King Sterndale, which are electorally insignificant.

First, closest to and just south of the town centre, there is the area around Cote Heath Park itself. This section has lost some streets to Central ward in the boundary changes that came into effect in 2003 – before then it ran as far north as Dale Road. ‘Cote Heath proper’ has a handful of solid large stone houses on the edge of the park, but generally has been regarded as a working class area because of the influence of the largest bloc of social housing in the ward, centred on Sherwood Road, and the presence of the boys’ secondary modern school, Kents Bank, before the merger into a comprehensive in 1973. Buxton is generally rather divided on class grounds between its eastern and much more affluent western halves, and I noticed even at the time that most of the minority who attended the grammar school, Buxton College (itself in the west, of course), lived in the western neighbourhoods. This section probably still has a Labour plurality, at least when turnout is reasonable, but it has played a smaller and smaller role in the ward as a whole.

One reason for that is the development from the 1960s onwards of the second section, which I shall call Foxlow Park. This is further south than the first section described above, situated west of the A515 Ashbourne Road (opposite the simultaneously developed industrial estate) and east of Harpur Hill Road. It consists mainly of rather low-to middle cost and similar status private housing, as a virtual tour by Google View may confirm. This is not one of the so-called better residential areas of Buxton (Temple, Burbage and much of Corbar wards), but some residents are upwardly mobile and to some extent aspiring, and as it is solidly owner occupied this development, which has occurred in several stages, has provided the basis for a Conservative or at least swing vote, an important element in Cote Heath ward’s marginality.

Finally, there is the third major section: Harpur Hill. This community is very much what Meatloaf/Jim Steinman would have called the edge of town, but it is no beauty.* Even higher than the highest town centre in England, it was originally a quarrying community and looks it, with some parts having just the faintest touches of Blaenau Ffestiniog. Here is also some social housing. It probably was never as solidly Labour as its reputation suggests, as the quarrying industry has never had the same political solidarity as other mineral extraction such as coal; and Buxton’s most recent private housing developments lie out here too. As with Foxlow Park, these are not very upscale (it will be very cold in winter for a start, and we feel a long way from the Opera House and the Crescent here) and some are so new as to be not fully occupied or on the register. These are not large estates, and should not affect the overall marginality of Cote Heath or today’s contest.

As to which, sorry if anyone has read so far and expects an authoritative pronouncement, I have absolutely no idea who will win. I toured the ward on Saturday on my way to Buxton FC v Lancaster City (0-0 if you ask, but worth the 380 mile round trip to see my football mates) and saw no sign there was an election on whatsoever. No boards, no canvassers.
If Labour were well ahead nationally, they should hold it, but with a recent Conservative mini-revival it may not be much different a situation from May 2019. When the Tories won the county council division (Buxton North and East, oddly including the south too ...) in May 2021 they must have been ahead within Cote Heath, given that almost all the other parts of North & East are more Labour than this ward is at district level.
The presence of a Green candidate probably hurts Labour more, slightly. The deceased Labour councillor Keith Savage was widely liked and respected, note how he bucked the dreaded alpha order in the results in 2019. Therefore overall I’ve gone for a narrow Conservative gain in the prediction competition. But there’s at least a 50% chance I’m wrong about the winner.

I’ve added the same stats as used in the Vote UK Almanac entries, if of any interest at this level: overall pretty white, not particularly well educated, owner occupied, slightly down the class scale from average ...



2011 Census

Age 65+ 14.7%
Owner-occupied 73.0%
Private rented 11.0%
Social rented 14.8%
White 97.9%
Black 0.1 %
Asian 0.3%
Managerial & professional 23.3%
Routine & Semi-routine 33.1%
Degree level 19.4%
No qualifications 22.7%
Students 2.6%




*Objects in the rear view mirror may appear closer than they are.

[phil156]

High Peak I emailed last Friday on when they doing th count? No reply I shall ring them in a bit but nothing at all on social media and nothing on web pages - disgrace

[phil156]

Well except for Horsham which is in the morning they all should count tonight. High Peak which refuses to answer e-mails and phone calls which I don't know

Hig Peak is a waste of time