Anyway, what I came here for, was: anyone got any news on your actual Hungarian GE? Feels like it might be the most interesting one for some time.
Every opinion poll conducted in the month of March has Orban leading by more then 3%, so he is probably the favourite.
Yeah, I've done a bit of digging and that seems to be the case. But also: most people seem to think the opposition need to be 3-4% ahead to win due to FPTP/gerrymandering (depending on who's saying it; I wouldn't know) so that the issue is really whether or not Orban gets a super-majority.
It is very unlikely that Viktor Orban will obtain another supermajority, but the electoral rules mean he can win a majority with only a slight lead, due to clauses that compensate electoral winners as well as electoral losers.
I was chatting with a few colleagues last week, they were all rather depressed with the election and were expecting an increased majority for Orban. His closeness with Putin has not harmed him and they assume that voters will coalesce around the government, as often happens in troubled times. In the past few days I've had 2 more emails from the government insisting that the government doesn't want Hungarians to pay for the cost of the war. There was also an extremely overt call to vote no on each of the four questions in the LGBT referendum which will be held on the same day as the election. More info here: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Hungarian_LGBTQ_in_education_referendum
Post by Richard Cromwell on Apr 2, 2022 12:37:01 GMT
Plugging for an opposition victory.
"The equal right of all men to the use of land is as clear as their equal right to breathe the air — it is a right proclaimed by the fact of their existence. For we cannot suppose that some men have a right to be in this world, and others no right." - Henry George
I got back to Hungary late last night and I might go for a stroll later to find a polling station to see what the queues are like. Weather here in Debrecen is cold (2°C) and overcast with sporadic sleet. I have no idea how or even whether that will influence turnout (predicted to be the highest in recent elections) or whether it will favour one party over another.
At 15:00 turnout (52.75%) was a shade lower than the same time in 2018, although there are signs that people might just be turning out later this year. Either way, it is not looking likely that turnout will be significantly higher than 2018, which is contrary to expectations. I don't know who this will favour, if anyone.
The expectation is that we should have a clear idea of who will win by midnight tonight, unless things are really on a knife-edge.
With TurnOut continuing to be a little bit below last time, there is 1 bad and 1 good news for Orban - the bad one: it is highest in Budapest; the good one: it is rather on the western & eastern fringes, where he has performed better than in the middle strip of the city (and it's also high in the NW of the country, another fortress). Few NewsPaper-sites: