Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,815 
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 29, 2022 16:18:10 GMT
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Mar 29, 2022 17:16:41 GMT
Anyway, what I came here for, was: anyone got any news on your actual Hungarian GE? Feels like it might be the most interesting one for some time. Every opinion poll conducted in the month of March has Orban leading by more then 3%, so he is probably the favourite. Yeah, I've done a bit of digging and that seems to be the case. But also: most people seem to think the opposition need to be 3-4% ahead to win due to FPTP/gerrymandering (depending on who's saying it; I wouldn't know) so that the issue is really whether or not Orban gets a super-majority. |
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Post by greenhert on Mar 29, 2022 19:09:37 GMT
It is very unlikely that Viktor Orban will obtain another supermajority, but the electoral rules mean he can win a majority with only a slight lead, due to clauses that compensate electoral winners as well as electoral losers.
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WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,267
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Post by WJ on Mar 30, 2022 10:45:12 GMT
I was chatting with a few colleagues last week, they were all rather depressed with the election and were expecting an increased majority for Orban. His closeness with Putin has not harmed him and they assume that voters will coalesce around the government, as often happens in troubled times. In the past few days I've had 2 more emails from the government insisting that the government doesn't want Hungarians to pay for the cost of the war. There was also an extremely overt call to vote no on each of the four questions in the LGBT referendum which will be held on the same day as the election. More info here: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Hungarian_LGBTQ_in_education_referendum |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 31, 2022 11:56:45 GMT
I wonder if pessimism is "baked in" amongst a lot of Orban's opponents, though.
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Post by Richard Cromwell on Apr 2, 2022 12:37:01 GMT
Plugging for an opposition victory.
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WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,267
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Post by WJ on Apr 2, 2022 13:15:55 GMT
I'll believe it when I see it.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,908
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Post by YL on Apr 2, 2022 14:29:34 GMT
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WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,267
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Post by WJ on Apr 3, 2022 7:57:34 GMT
Election day!
I got back to Hungary late last night and I might go for a stroll later to find a polling station to see what the queues are like. Weather here in Debrecen is cold (2°C) and overcast with sporadic sleet. I have no idea how or even whether that will influence turnout (predicted to be the highest in recent elections) or whether it will favour one party over another.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
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Post by iain on Apr 3, 2022 8:45:49 GMT
What time do polls close?
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WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,267
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Post by WJ on Apr 3, 2022 8:51:55 GMT
What time do polls close? 7pm |
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WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,267
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Post by WJ on Apr 3, 2022 12:13:59 GMT
I passed a couple of polling stations earlier. Long queues outside all of them.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Apr 3, 2022 15:04:03 GMT
is there a website which will have the results as they come in.
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WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,267
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Post by WJ on Apr 3, 2022 15:13:02 GMT
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WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,267
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Post by WJ on Apr 3, 2022 15:16:23 GMT
At 15:00 turnout (52.75%) was a shade lower than the same time in 2018, although there are signs that people might just be turning out later this year. Either way, it is not looking likely that turnout will be significantly higher than 2018, which is contrary to expectations. I don't know who this will favour, if anyone.
The expectation is that we should have a clear idea of who will win by midnight tonight, unless things are really on a knife-edge.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,815
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 3, 2022 15:58:09 GMT
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,815
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 3, 2022 16:09:57 GMT
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WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,267
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Post by WJ on Apr 3, 2022 16:13:00 GMT
The weather was abysmal this morning, so possibly turnout has picked up since, and in the 45 minutes left until polls close. Sunny, still and not as cold as earlier.
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,306
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Post by maxque on Apr 3, 2022 16:31:05 GMT
I don't understand the interest. I think it's pretty clear that is Orban is losing, they'll start throwing opposition ballots in the trash/finding Orban ballots.
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WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,267
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Post by WJ on Apr 3, 2022 17:09:43 GMT
Polls now closed. First results expected at about 9pm.
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