Techne UK

[The Bishop]

Jul 1, 2022 12:06:15 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

Jul 1, 2022 10:53:14 GMT jollyroger93 said:

Also..

See last night's Question Time from Scotland

QT never proves anything and never did, tbh.

[Tony Otim]

Overall there's very little to suggest the fundamental position has changed from a few point lead for No. This is at the extreme of the range for No (from a pollster with no track record as yet), the Sunday Times one towards the other extreme, but overall little to suggest much has moved or indeed looks like moving...

[clyde1998]

Jul 3, 2022 9:47:13 GMT Tony Otim said:

Overall there's very little to suggest the fundamental position has changed from a few point lead for No. This is at the extreme of the range for No (from a pollster with no track record as yet), the Sunday Times one towards the other extreme, but overall little to suggest much has moved or indeed looks like moving...

One thing that’s unclear is what their weighting for Scotland is, given the data tables are for a GB-wide poll. It’s possible there’s no weighting based on 2014 vote, for example, which may affect the figures.

If they’re going to be this regularly as part of their tracker, typical sampling variation should even any ‘missing’ weights over time. Of course with a sample of 500, there’s more room for variation than the typical 1,000 person polls anyway.

[carolus]

[The Bishop]

Unsurprisingly, this is the biggest Labour lead since they started.

[timmullen1]

[andrewp]

[timmullen1]

[timmullen1]

[matureleft]

Aug 5, 2022 8:08:35 GMT timmullen1 said:

I noted that another poll showed a narrowing of the gap and this was seen as an outlier.

Logically the gap should narrow a bit.
1. Governments tend to do better when Parliament is on Summer Recess. They can control the news more readily and the opposition has to work harder to promote their agenda but in addition:
2. This summer we have a complete focus on the Conservatives. Obviously not all of that has been positive but the blanket coverage of the contest, and the need to put out new policy that candidates hope is attractive means that, unless it becomes an unseemly brawl (and it hasn’t) there should be some party gain. 

[The Bishop]

Though that is maybe an argument for Labour making their own high profile "offer" on the coming energy bills crisis later this month - both to take advantage of what is as you say usually a "slow" news period, and to get in there before the new Tory leader and PM does after they take office in early September.

[nodealbrexiteer]

Aug 5, 2022 9:34:41 GMT The Bishop said:

Though that it maybe an argument for Labour making their own high profile "offer" on the coming energy bills crisis later this month - both to take advantage of what is as you say usually a "slow" news period, and to get in there before the new Tory leader and PM does after they take office in early September.

Of course that offer would be accompanied by cries of 'where's the money coming from'

[The Bishop]

Well of course, but you can't let that stop you given the exceptional circumstances we are going to be in soon.

[bigfatron]

Aug 5, 2022 9:47:59 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

Aug 5, 2022 9:34:41 GMT The Bishop said:

Though that it maybe an argument for Labour making their own high profile "offer" on the coming energy bills crisis later this month - both to take advantage of what is as you say usually a "slow" news period, and to get in there before the new Tory leader and PM does after they take office in early September.

Of course that offer would be accompanied by cries of 'where's the money coming from'

But surely all they need to do is ask the Tories for the address of the magic money tree...?

[matureleft]

Aug 5, 2022 9:47:59 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

Aug 5, 2022 9:34:41 GMT The Bishop said:

Though that it maybe an argument for Labour making their own high profile "offer" on the coming energy bills crisis later this month - both to take advantage of what is as you say usually a "slow" news period, and to get in there before the new Tory leader and PM does after they take office in early September.

Of course that offer would be accompanied by cries of 'where's the money coming from'

One of the advantages of Tory recent behaviour is that those challenges seem to carry less weight. 

Since the “magic money tree” (in May’s phrase) was discovered by the Tories after the 2017 election to fund Northern Ireland bribes for the DUP,  and particularly through COVID there’s been both a recognition that the Tories aren’t defenders of cautious, funded, public spending (actually a myth anyway but one that served them well), and a welcome recognition that funding a government isn’t the same as running your household (as Thatcher, misleadingly, sometimes claimed). 

Of course Truss’s adoption of Reaganomics (or its Barber predecessor) and Sunak’s criticism of that has further eased the intellectual climate on public borrowing and debt. I’m not sure that that’s entirely welcome but that’s where we are.

[andrew111]

Aug 5, 2022 9:20:52 GMT matureleft said:

Aug 5, 2022 8:08:35 GMT timmullen1 said:

I noted that another poll showed a narrowing of the gap and this was seen as an outlier.

Logically the gap should narrow a bit.
1. Governments tend to do better when Parliament is on Summer Recess. They can control the news more readily and the opposition has to work harder to promote their agenda but in addition:
2. This summer we have a complete focus on the Conservatives. Obviously not all of that has been positive but the blanket coverage of the contest, and the need to put out new policy that candidates hope is attractive means that, unless it becomes an unseemly brawl (and it hasn’t) there should be some party gain. 

Everything in this poll is within MOE (even for a tracker). There is no significant change compared to the last one.
The polling average does show Lab a bit down and Con a bit up though, and that is probably significant. For now

[andrewp]

[batman]

There may be some evidence that Labour is doing quite well in the "Red Wall" and is recapturing traditional Labour voters who have deserted, but that the Tories are regaining some traditional voters in their historically stronger areas.

[mattbewilson]

Aug 12, 2022 9:16:44 GMT batman said:

There may be some evidence that Labour is doing quite well in the "Red Wall" and is recapturing traditional Labour voters who have deserted, but that the Tories are regaining some traditional voters in their historically stronger areas.

there was some debate about this on another thread recently

[jamie]

Aug 12, 2022 12:37:30 GMT mattbewilson said:

Aug 12, 2022 9:16:44 GMT batman said:

There may be some evidence that Labour is doing quite well in the "Red Wall" and is recapturing traditional Labour voters who have deserted, but that the Tories are regaining some traditional voters in their historically stronger areas.

there was some debate about this on another thread recently

Which one?