The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 10, 2022 11:34:47 GMT
So it appears a new pollster is up and running - their first published survey has Lab 40 Con 32 LibDem 10 Green 6. To be updated weekly, apparently.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 10, 2022 11:36:31 GMT
The figures look credible at least...
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Post by woollyliberal on Feb 11, 2022 9:45:57 GMT
LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 33% (+1)
LDM: 9% (-1)
GRN: 6% (=)
7-9 Feb (Changes with 2 Feb)
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312 
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Post by maxque on Feb 12, 2022 3:58:53 GMT
They seem to be an UK operation of Italian pollster Tecnè, with an adjustment for pronunciation.
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Post by andrewp on Feb 18, 2022 9:59:59 GMT
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Post by andrewp on Feb 25, 2022 11:32:52 GMT
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Post by london(ex)tory on Feb 25, 2022 11:57:14 GMT
Is it too early yet to wonder which pollster might put the Tories back in the lead at some point?
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Post by woollyliberal on Feb 25, 2022 12:00:08 GMT
Is it too early yet to wonder which pollster might put the Tories back in the lead at some point? Probably |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 25, 2022 12:11:05 GMT
This poll apparently claims that only 1% of 2019 Tory voters are switching to Labour. Hmmmm.
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polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
Posts: 1,261
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Post by polupolu on Feb 25, 2022 12:16:08 GMT
This poll apparently claims that only 1% of 2019 Tory voters are switching to Labour. Hmmmm. Presumably part of that is false memory. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 25, 2022 12:17:13 GMT
The point is, no other pollster is showing anything like such a low figure (though they do vary)
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Post by batman on Feb 25, 2022 12:46:01 GMT
Is it too early yet to wonder which pollster might put the Tories back in the lead at some point? yes, it almost certainly is. This is the first poll in a while to have a reduced Labour lead, others have shown it slightly widening again. |
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Post by batman on Feb 25, 2022 12:46:52 GMT
and what TheBishop says.
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Post by mattbewilson on Feb 25, 2022 12:48:32 GMT
In 2017 I remember someone on UKPollingReport predict Tories regained the lead by November. As it was it wasn't till March the following year
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Post by andrewp on Mar 6, 2022 14:55:40 GMT
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Post by andrewp on Mar 11, 2022 9:05:11 GMT
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Post by froome on Mar 11, 2022 9:28:21 GMT
Their polls seem remarkably consistent, with little movement from one to the next.
Does that make them more credible?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 11, 2022 11:02:02 GMT
Also remarkably little switching from 2019 Con voters to Labour now (just 2% in this one) compared to all other pollsters, which does raise questions.
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Post by mattbewilson on Mar 14, 2022 10:03:20 GMT
pollsters often say that changes in polling numbers are often just 'noise' and sometimes you have to cut through that. I remember reading that Lyton Crosby doesn't bother with headline figures, just reads the underlying information.
I think low direct switchers isn't a massive issue. Labour's leads are mostly a product of tory to don't knows
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 14, 2022 10:11:44 GMT
pollsters often say that changes in polling numbers are often just 'noise' and sometimes you have to cut through that. I remember reading that Lyton Crosby doesn't bother with headline figures, just reads the underlying information. I think low direct switchers isn't a massive issue. Labour's leads are mostly a product of tory to don't knows This is actually less true than it was, even some recent surveys with small Labour leads have about c10% of 2019 Tory voters switching to them. The point about this pollster is that it is very much an outlier here. |
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