Prediction Competition - February 2022

[greenhert]

Allerdale DC, Stainburn & Clifton: Labour 54, Conservative 46. Labour gain from Independent.
Bristol UA, Southmead: Labour 45, Green 28, Conservative 18, Liberal Democrats 7, TUSC 2.
Mid Suffolk DC, Thurston: Green 50, Conservative 38, Liberal Democrats 8, Labour 4.
Newark & Sherwood DC, Collingham: Conservative 49, Liberal Democrats 37, Labour 14. Conservative gain from Independent.
North East Lincolnshire UA, Park: Conservative 45, Labour 37, Liberal Democrats 14, TUSC 4.
North Northamptonshire UA, Oundle: Conservative 41, Liberal Democrats 35, Labour 15, Green 9.
Nottinghamshire CC, Collingham: Independent (Darby) 50, Conservative 40, Labour 10.
Oadby & Wigston BC, Wigston Meadowcourt: Liberal Democrats 57, Conservative 36, Green 7.
West Devon DC, Tavistock North: Liberal Democrats 40, Green 26, Conservative 25, Labour 9. Liberal Democrat gain from Independent.

[andrewp]

Allerdale. Stainburn and Clifton. Lab 62 Con 38
Bristol, Southmead. Lab 44, Con 22, Green 21, LD 11, TUSC 2
Mid Suffolk. Thurston, Green 49, Con 33, LD 11, Lab 7
Newark and Sherwood. Collingham. Con 49, LD 36, Lab 15
North East Lincolnshire, Park, Con 48, Lab 28, LD 22, TUSC 2
North Northamptonshire, Oundle. LD 44, Con 37, Lab 10, Green 9
Nottinghamshire, Collingham. Con 43, Ind 39, Lab 18.
Oadby and Wigston. Wigston Meadowcourt, LD 56, Con 36, Green 8
West Devon. Tavistock North. LD 39, Con 35, Green 17, Lab 9

[peterl]

Allerdale. Stainburn and Clifton. Lab 58 Con 42
Bristol, Southmead. Lab 43, Green 25, Con 18, LD 12, TUSC 2
Mid Suffolk. Thurston, Green 52, Con 30, LD 13, Lab 5
Newark and Sherwood. Collingham. LD 45, Con 38, Lab 17
North East Lincolnshire, Park, Con 44, Lab 34, LD 20, TUSC 2
North Northamptonshire, Oundle. LD 46, Con 34, Lab 12, Green 8
Nottinghamshire, Collingham. Ind 45, Con 41, Lab 14
Oadby and Wigston. Wigston Meadowcourt, LD 53, Con 37, Green 10
West Devon. Tavistock North. LD 42, Con 31, Green 20, Lab 7

[manchesterman]

Collingham, Nottinghamshire

IND 46
CON 45
LAB 9


Oundle, North Northamptonshire

CON 41
LD 39
LAB 12
GRN 8


Tavistock North, West Devon

CON 40
LD 35
LAB 15
GRN 10


Southmead, Bristol

LAB 48
CON 21
GRN 21
LD 9
TUSC 1


Wigston Meadowcourt, Oadby and Wigston

LD 58
CON 30
GRN 12


Stainburn & Clifton, Allerdale

LAB 57
CON 43


Thurston, Mid Suffolk

GRN 48
CON 34
LD 12
LAB 6


Collingham, Newark and Sherwood

CON 50
LD 38
LAB 12


Park, North East Lincolnshire

CON 45
LAB 27
LD 27
TUSC 1

[Robert Waller]

Allerdale, Stainburn and Clifton. Lab 59 Con 41

Bristol, Southmead. Lab 50, Con 23, Green 17, LD 9, TUSC 1

Mid Suffolk. Thurston, Green 48, Con 32, LD 15, Lab 5

Newark and Sherwood. Collingham. Con 57, LD 38, Lab 5

North East Lincolnshire, Park, Con 43, Lab 32, LD 23, TUSC 2

North Northamptonshire, Oundle. LD 42, Con 41, Lab 9, Green 8

Nottinghamshire, Collingham. Con 60, Ind 17, Lab 23.

Oadby and Wigston, Wigston Meadowcourt. LD 64, Con 30, Green 6

West Devon, Tavistock North. LD 42, Con 36, Green 12, Lab 10

[iainbhx]

Allerdale DC, Stainburn & Clifton: Lab 54, Con 46
Bristol UA, Southmead: Lab 48, Con 29, Grn 15, LDm 7, TUSC 1
Mid Suffolk DC, Thurston: Con 42, Grn 38, LDm 12, Lab 8
Newark & Sherwood DC, Collingham: Con 54, LDm 39, Lab 7
North East Lincolnshire UA, Park: Con 40, Lab 35, LDm 24, TUSC 1
North Northamptonshire UA, Oundle: LDm 40, Con 38, Grn 12, Lab 10
Nottinghamshire CC, Collingham: Con 50, Ind 32, Lab 18
Oadby & Wigston DC, Wigston Meadowcourt: LDm 54, Con 39, Grn 7
West Devon DC, Tavistock North: Con 44, Grn 24, LDm 20, Lab 12

[rightleaning]

Allerdale, Stainburn and Clifton. Lab 61 Con 39

Bristol, Southmead. Lab 47, Con 24, Gn 20, LD 8, TUSC 1

Mid Suffolk. Thurston, Gn 46, Con 35, Lab 10, LD 9

Newark and Sherwood. Collingham. Con 51, Lab 27, LD 22,

North East Lincolnshire, Park, Con 53, Lab 31, LD 14, TUSC 2

North Northamptonshire, Oundle. LD 33, Con 32, Lab 19, Gn 16

Nottinghamshire, Collingham. Con 63, Ind 25, Lab 12.

Oadby and Wigston, Wigston Meadowcourt. LD 63, Con 31, Gn 6

West Devon, Tavistock North. LD 41, Gn 21, Con 20, Lab 18

[Toylyyev]

ALLERDALE DC, Stainburn and Clifton:
Conservative 49.9, Labour 50.1.

BRISTOL UA, Southmead:
Conservative 18, Labour 40.5, Liberal Democrat 5, Green 35.5, TUSC 1.

MID SUFFOLK DC, Thurston:
Conservative 34, Labour 5, Liberal Democrat 6, Green 55.

NEWARK and SHERWOOD DC, Collingham:
Conservative 57, Labour 9, Liberal Democrat 34.

NORTH EAST LINCOLNSHIRE UA, Park:
Conservative 32.9, Labour 32.9, Liberal Democrat 33, TUSC 1.2.

NOTTINGHAMSHIRE CC, Collingham:
Conservative 37, Labour 9, Independent 54.

NORTH NORTHAMPTONSHIRE UA, Oundle:
Conservative 34, Labour 12.5, Liberal Democrat 46, Green 7.5.

OADBY and WIGSTON DC, Wigston Meadowcourt:
Conservative 30, Liberal Democrat 60, Green 10.

WEST DEVON DC, Tavistock North:
Conservative 30.5, Labour 8, Liberal Democrat 30.5, Green 31.

[andykernow]

Allerdale - Stainburn - Labour Gain from Conservative

Labour - 60%
Conservative - 40%

Bristol - Southmead - Labour Hold

Labour - 38%
Green -32%
Conservative - 18%
Liberal Democrat - 10%
TUSC - 2%

Mid Suffolk - Thurston - Green Hold

Green - 51%
Conservative - 20%
Liberal Democrat - 18%
Labour - 11%

Newark & Sherwood - Collingham - Lib Dem Gain from Ind

Liberal Democrat - 40%
Conservative - 34%
Labour - 26%

North East Lincolnshire - Park - Conservative Hold

Conservative - 49%
Labour - 32%
Liberal Democrat - 17%
TUSC - 2%

Nottinghamshire - Collingham - Ind Hold

Independent - 53%
Conservative - 28%
Labour - 19%

North Northamptonshire - Oundle - Conservative Hold

Conservative - 40%
Liberal Democrat -30%
Green - 18%
Labour - 12%

Oadby & Wigston - Wigston - Lib Dem Hold

Liberal Democrat - 49%
Conservative - 32%
Green - 19%

West Devon - Tavistock North - Lib Dem Gain from Ind

Liberal Democrat - 48%
Conservative - 32%
Green - 15%
Labour - 5%

[robbienicoll]

15 entries for this bumper Thursday, with jm joining but no dundas or yellowperil. All on time, with Richard Cromwell receiving 3 faults for going over in Newark and Sherwood and Tony Otim receiving 0.1 for going over in North East Lincolnshire.

Stainburn and Clifton, Allerdale: 13 Labour gain from Independent, with jm and johnloony Conservative gain.
Southmead, Bristol: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 5% (Toylyyev) to 27% (manchesterman and Robert Waller).
Thurston, Mid Suffolk: 13 Green hold, with AJS and iainbhx Conservative gain.
Collingham, Newark and Sherwood: 11 Conservative gain from Independent, with andykernow, jm, kevinf and peterl Liberal Democrat gain.
Park, North East Lincolnshire: 12 Conservative hold, with jm, kevinf and Toylyyev Liberal Democrat gain.
Oundle, North Northamptonshire: 10 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with AJS, andykernow, greenhert, manchesterman and Tony Otim Conservative hold.
Collingham, Nottinghamshire: 8 Conservative gain from Independent, with andykernow, greenhert, johnloony, manchesterman, peterl, Richard Cromwell and Toylyyev Independent (Darby) win.
Wigston Meadowcourt, Oadby and Wigston: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 10% (AJS) to 34% (Robert Waller).
Tavistock North, West Devon: 9 Liberal Democrat gain from Independent, with AJS, iainbhx, kevinf, manchesterman and Tony Otim Conservative gain and Toylyyev Green gain.

Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1K5O6PV4xEYtPfB3D6w-CTwwgjVxPMAhfPruRptlyY00/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Robert Waller]

I hope yellowperil is OK.

[Tony Otim]

Feb 17, 2022 21:15:43 GMT robbienicoll said:

15 entries for this bumper Thursday, with jm joining but no dundas or yellowperil. All on time, with Richard Cromwell receiving 3 faults for going over in Newark and Sherwood and Tony Otim receiving 0.1 for going over in North East Lincolnshire.

Stainburn and Clifton, Allerdale: 13 Labour gain from Independent, with jm and johnloony Conservative gain.
Southmead, Bristol: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 5% (Toylyyev) to 27% (manchesterman and Robert Waller).
Thurston, Mid Suffolk: 13 Green hold, with AJS and iainbhx Conservative gain.
Collingham, Newark and Sherwood: 11 Conservative gain from Independent, with andykernow, jm, kevinf and peterl Liberal Democrat gain.
Park, North East Lincolnshire: 12 Conservative hold, with jm, kevinf and Toylyyev Liberal Democrat gain.
Oundle, North Northamptonshire: 10 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with AJS, andykernow, greenhert, manchesterman and Tony Otim Conservative hold.
Collingham, Nottinghamshire: 8 Conservative gain from Independent, with andykernow, greenhert, johnloony, manchesterman, peterl, Richard Cromwell and Toylyyev Independent (Darby) win.
Wigston Meadowcourt, Oadby and Wigston: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 10% (AJS) to 34% (Robert Waller).
Tavistock North, West Devon: 9 Liberal Democrat gain from Independent, with AJS, iainbhx, kevinf and manchesterman Conservative gain and Toylyyev Green gain.

Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1K5O6PV4xEYtPfB3D6w-CTwwgjVxPMAhfPruRptlyY00/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

I was also a Con gain in Tavistock.

[Richard Cromwell]

Argh!

[The Bishop]

Feb 17, 2022 22:06:32 GMT Robert Waller said:

I hope yellowperil is OK.

Still lurking.

[Robert Waller]

A quick and unofficial calculation after the delayed Tavistock declaration suggests congratulations are due to Toylyyev who wins the week and has a massive lead for the month - and manchesterman had a good week ... well done to all with a large, difficult and disparate set to predict.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Feb 19, 2022 12:23:33 GMT Robert Waller said:

A quick and unofficial calculation after the delayed Tavistock declaration suggests calculations are due to Toylyyev who wins the week and has a massive lead for the month - and manchesterman had a good week ... well done to all with a large, difficult and disparate set to predict.

What type of calculations are due to Toylyyev ?

[Toylyyev]

In addition to the 6 next Thursday, one by-election in Spelthorne DC is listed for next Wednesday not to be forgotten to predict. 

vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/15965/local-council-election-23rd-february

[Tony Otim]

Stanwell North: Lab 57.7; Con 39.7; TUSC 2.6

[Tony Otim]

Castle Point: Ind 45.9; Con 39.3; Lab 14.8
Durham: Lab 28.8; Makepeace 25.7; Con 21.7; Newby 15.2; LD 4.8; Grn 3.1; Freedom All 0.7
Lincolnshire: Con 64.5; Lab 26.6; Grn 4.6; LD 4.3
Maldon: Con 53.8; LD 20.4; Lab 15.2; Peatling 10.7
S. Kesteven, Aveland: Con 73.7; Lab 26.3
S. Kesteven. Isaac Newton: Con 55.8; Lab 20.1; Skelton 17.7; Grn 6.4

[kevinf]

Stanwell. Lab 52 Con 47 TUSC 1