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Post by andrewp on Feb 10, 2022 11:40:27 GMT
We're all going to finish up with egg on our faces after a Labour gain in Eastleigh, a Consrvative hold in Wealden and an Ind or Con victory in Somerset.... Maybe.... Or a Reform win in Eastleigh, a Labour win in Alcombe and the SDP win in Wealden. Which is the Least likely Lib Dem win is an interesting question. Eastleigh for me I think. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Feb 10, 2022 13:31:47 GMT
Have I missed an entry from shadsy? Or is he resting in his laurels from last week?  |
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Post by robbienicoll on Feb 10, 2022 21:55:23 GMT
16 entries this week, with manchesterman returning and AJS joining. Unfortunately shadsy is missing after last week's podium finish. AJS was 4 1/2 hours late with the entry so receives 3x 45 faults, andykernow (although getting the right number of contests) gets 6 faults for going over in Eastleigh and manchesterman receives 2 for going under in the same contest. Eastleigh Central, Eastleigh: 15 Liberal Democrat hold, majorities ranging from 0.1% (Toylyyev over Labour) to 30% (johnloony over Conservative), Richard Cromwell Labour gain (2% majority over Lib Dem). Alcombe, Somerset West and Taunton: 100% Liberal Democrat gain from Independent, with majorities ranging from 8% (greenhert) to 30% (kevinf). Hailsham South, Wealden: 100% Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with majorities ranging from 0.1% (Toylyyev) to 29% (johnloony). Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pmeyYyPmrXEzaPqX7ru0cXJxc0_JbkBCKbrnoAbWpKA/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all! |
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Feb 10, 2022 22:09:14 GMT
16 entries this week, with manchesterman returning and AJS joining. Unfortunately shadsy is missing after last week's podium finish. AJS was 4 1/2 hours late with the entry so receives 3x 45 faults, andykernow (although getting the right number of contests) gets 6 faults for going over in Eastleigh and manchesterman receives 2 for going under in the same contest. Eastleigh Central, Eastleigh: 15 Liberal Democrat hold, majorities ranging from 0.1% (Toylyyev over Labour) to 30% (johnloony over Conservative), Richard Cromwell Labour gain (2% majority over Lib Dem). Alcombe, Somerset West and Taunton: 100% Liberal Democrat gain from Independent, with majorities ranging from 8% (greenhert) to 30% (kevinf). Hailsham South, Wealden: 100% Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with majorities ranging from 0.1% (Toylyyev) to 29% (johnloony)._(my underscore)Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pmeyYyPmrXEzaPqX7ru0cXJxc0_JbkBCKbrnoAbWpKA/edit#gid=0 - good luck to all! That dichotomy was unintentional (or unconscious), but nonetheless a nice contest on who was the greater fool.  |
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 10, 2022 22:34:32 GMT
16 entries this week, with manchesterman returning and AJS joining. Unfortunately shadsy is missing after last week's podium finish. AJS was 4 1/2 hours late with the entry so receives 3x 45 faults, andykernow (although getting the right number of contests) gets 6 faults for going over in Eastleigh and manchesterman receives 2 for going under in the same contest. Eastleigh Central, Eastleigh: 15 Liberal Democrat hold, majorities ranging from 0.1% (Toylyyev over Labour) to 30% (johnloony over Conservative), Richard Cromwell Labour gain (2% majority over Lib Dem). Alcombe, Somerset West and Taunton: 100% Liberal Democrat gain from Independent, with majorities ranging from 8% (greenhert) to 30% (kevinf). Hailsham South, Wealden: 100% Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with majorities ranging from 0.1% (Toylyyev) to 29% (johnloony)._(my underscore)Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pmeyYyPmrXEzaPqX7ru0cXJxc0_JbkBCKbrnoAbWpKA/edit#gid=0 - good luck to all! That dichotomy was unintentional (or unconscious), but nonetheless a nice contest on who was the greater fool. We may know quite soon, but I was quite intrigued by those two 0.1 majorities. You may well be spot on, but I couldn't help but feel you didnt really think the LDs were going to win them, but didn't want to risk crossing the line...I must say I'm quite nervous about them, too |
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Feb 10, 2022 22:47:57 GMT
That dichotomy was unintentional (or unconscious), but nonetheless a nice contest on who was the greater fool. We may know quite soon, but I was quite intrigued by those two 0.1 majorities. You may well be spot on, but I couldn't help but feel you didnt really think the LDs were going to win them, but didn't want to risk crossing the line...I must say I'm quite nervous about them, too I did reverse the Eastleigh punt as a hedge, and indeed guess that Labour would win. The other one is genuine. PS. I should probably also refer here to the Hailsham South poll on December 2 as one of the reasons for forecasting the close contest there. BLAKE-COGGINS, Anne Barbara - Liberal Democrat: 197 COOK, Jennifer Carolyn - Conservative Party Candidate: 221 Elected www.wealden.gov.uk/UploadedFiles/ParishesDRP-021221.pdf |
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Post by Robert Waller on Feb 10, 2022 23:27:09 GMT
I took into account that the C candidate in Wealden does not live in the town of Hailsham, whereas the LD was clearly very local. That seems to have gone OK, but I didn't think Somerset would be as close as it was, and the delay in the result from Eastleigh may support that being close as well, as Toyly predicts. By the way, is anyone else finding that robbienicoll's results sheet needs permission to access this week? |
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 10, 2022 23:30:36 GMT
I took into account that the C candidate in Wealden does not live in the town of Hailsham, whereas the LD was clearly very local. That seems to have gone OK, but I didn't think Somerset would be as close as it was, and the delay in the result from Eastleigh may support that being close as well, as Toyly predicts. By the way, is anyone else finding that robbienicoll 's results sheet needs permission to access this week?Yes |
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 10, 2022 23:35:18 GMT
We may know quite soon, but I was quite intrigued by those two 0.1 majorities. You may well be spot on, but I couldn't help but feel you didnt really think the LDs were going to win them, but didn't want to risk crossing the line...I must say I'm quite nervous about them, too I did reverse the Eastleigh punt as a hedge, and indeed guess that Labour would win. The other one is genuine. PS. I should probably also refer here to the Hailsham South poll on December 2 as one of the reasons for forecasting the close contest there. BLAKE-COGGINS, Anne Barbara - Liberal Democrat: 197 COOK, Jennifer Carolyn - Conservative Party Candidate: 221 Elected www.wealden.gov.uk/UploadedFiles/ParishesDRP-021221.pdfmoral: never make too much of town council elections  |
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Post by robbienicoll on Feb 10, 2022 23:38:04 GMT
I took into account that the C candidate in Wealden does not live in the town of Hailsham, whereas the LD was clearly very local. That seems to have gone OK, but I didn't think Somerset would be as close as it was, and the delay in the result from Eastleigh may support that being close as well, as Toyly predicts. By the way, is anyone else finding that robbienicoll 's results sheet needs permission to access this week?This link should work. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pmeyYyPmrXEzaPqX7ru0cXJxc0_JbkBCKbrnoAbWpKA/edit?usp=sharing |
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 10, 2022 23:52:44 GMT
I took into account that the C candidate in Wealden does not live in the town of Hailsham, whereas the LD was clearly very local. That seems to have gone OK, but I didn't think Somerset would be as close as it was, and the delay in the result from Eastleigh may support that being close as well, as Toyly predicts. By the way, is anyone else finding that robbienicoll 's results sheet needs permission to access this week?On the Somerset result, I and quite a few others I think, expected the Independent to be a genuine contender and to split the Tory vote, given the background there. Indeed that was a principal reason for forecasting a Lib Dem win. I'm less sure I'd have gone for a Lib Dem win had I known Lillis would only get 13 votes! |
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 11, 2022 0:07:50 GMT
I took into account that the C candidate in Wealden does not live in the town of Hailsham, whereas the LD was clearly very local. That seems to have gone OK, but I didn't think Somerset would be as close as it was, and the delay in the result from Eastleigh may support that being close as well, as Toyly predicts. By the way, is anyone else finding that robbienicoll's results sheet needs permission to access this week?Another factor in Hailsham South was the resigning Conservative council was only elected in May and had served barely 6 months before resigning. |
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Post by yellowperil on Feb 11, 2022 7:06:10 GMT
I took into account that the C candidate in Wealden does not live in the town of Hailsham, whereas the LD was clearly very local. That seems to have gone OK, but I didn't think Somerset would be as close as it was, and the delay in the result from Eastleigh may support that being close as well, as Toyly predicts. By the way, is anyone else finding that robbienicoll 's results sheet needs permission to access this week?Another factor in Hailsham South was the resigning Conservative council was only elected in May and had served barely 6 months before resigning. The Conservative literature in Hailsham South was telling- the emphasis on the words New and Dynamic describing your candidate in a seat you are defending is a bit ...unusual. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Feb 11, 2022 11:42:48 GMT
robbienicoll could you look at the Wealden result again, as the council official declaration notice says 394 for the LD not 304, please?
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Post by andrewp on Feb 11, 2022 11:53:14 GMT
I took into account that the C candidate in Wealden does not live in the town of Hailsham, whereas the LD was clearly very local. That seems to have gone OK, but I didn't think Somerset would be as close as it was, and the delay in the result from Eastleigh may support that being close as well, as Toyly predicts. By the way, is anyone else finding that robbienicoll 's results sheet needs permission to access this week?On the Somerset result, I and quite a few others I think, expected the Independent to be a genuine contender and to split the Tory vote, given the background there. Indeed that was a principal reason for forecasting a Lib Dem win. I'm less sure I'd have gone for a Lib Dem win had I known Lillis would only get 13 votes! I didn’t think he was a contender but I did think he would get nearer 100 votes. I found it difficult to see anything other than a Lib Dem win there. It will be interesting to see if that has put Lillis off or whether he stands again in May. He lives in Washford, so if he does stand I suspect he may stand in Dunster rather than Minehead. Last nights result confirms my expectation that the May elections in Somerset will be somewhere between the 2017 Conservative high water mark and the 2019 Lib Dem high water mark. I think NOC is fairly likely. |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Feb 11, 2022 18:31:52 GMT
I predikt:
Allerdale: Con 58 Lab 42
Bristol: Lab 42 Con 22 Grn 18 LD 13 TUSC 5
Mid Suffolk: Grn 30 Con 29 LD 28 Lab 13
Newark & Sherwood: Con 40 Lab 30 LD 30
NE Lincs: Con 38 LD 32 Lab 24 TUSC 6
Notts: Ind 60 Con 28 Lab 12
North Northants: LD 31 Con 30 Lab 20 Grn 19
Oadby & Wigston: LD 55 Con 29 Grn 16
W Devon: LD 40 Con 30 Lab 20 Grn 10
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Post by jm on Feb 12, 2022 14:35:52 GMT
17 February
Allerdale - Stainburn & Clifton
Con 52
Lab 48
Bristol - Southmead
Lab 40
Con 23
Green 23
LD 10
TUSC 4
Mid Suffolk - Thurston
Green 45
Con 30
LD 20
Lab 5
Newark and Sherwood - Collingham
LD 45
Con 40
Lab 15
N.E. Lincs - Park
LD 46
Con 41
Lab 11
TUSC 2
Nottinghamshire - Collingham
Con 48
Ind 34
Lab 18
North Northants - Oundle
LD 41
Con 35
Green 12
Lab 12
Oadby & Wigston - Wigston Meadowcourt
LD 59
Con 27
Green 14
West Devon - Tavistock North
LD 45
Con 24
Lab 19
Green 12
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 15, 2022 21:22:43 GMT
Allerdale: Lab 55.3; Con 44.7
Bristol: Lab 44.4; Con 23.2; Grn 21.5; LD 9.7; TUSC 1.2
Mid Suffolk: Grn 44.1; Con 35.5; LD 11.8; Lab 8.6
Newark & Sherwood: Con 58.3; LD 25.5; Lab 16.2
NE Lincs: Con 46.1; Lab 30.4; LD 20.4; TUSC 3.2
Notts: Con 59.2; Ind 24.7; Lab 16.1
North Northants: Con 40.6; LD 34.0; Grn 13.5; Lab 11.9
Oadby & Wigston: LD 51.7; Con 34.3; Grn 14.0
West Devon: Con 47.2; LD 20.8; Lab 18.4; Grn 13.6
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kevinf
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Post by kevinf on Feb 16, 2022 11:45:39 GMT
Allerdale Lab 59, Con 41
Bristol. Lab 38, Green 25, Con 20, LibDem 15, TUSC 2
Mid Suffolk. Green 40, Con 38, LibDem 14, Lab 8
Newark. Lib Dem 45, Con 44, Lab 11
NE Lincs. LibDem 35, Con 34, Lab 30, TUSC 1
Notts. Con 46, Ind 44, Lab 10
North Northants LibDem 37, Con 34, Green 15, Lab 14
Oadby LibDem 55, Con 30, Green 15
West Devon Con 35, Lab 29, LibDem 28, Green 8
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Post by Richard Cromwell on Feb 16, 2022 12:13:06 GMT
Collingham, Nottinghamshire Oundle, North Northamptonshire Tavistock North, West Devon Southmead, Bristol | LAB | 45% | | CON | 21% | | GRN | 19% | | LDM | 13% | | TUSC | 2% |
Wigston Meadowcourt, Oadby and Wigston Stainburn & Clifton, Allerdale Thurston, Mid Suffolk Collingham, Newark and Sherwood Park, North East Lincolnshire |
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