Prediction Competition - February 2022

[iainbhx]

I am pleasantly surprised.

[yellowperil]

Feb 4, 2022 13:20:55 GMT Robert Waller said:

With Tamworth, and awaiting the authoritative final figures, I thinks congratulations for the week are in order to iainbhx and Toylyyev , and also to shadsy who made a strong debut and may just about have ascended the podium, or got very close to it ...!

Indeed, according to the ultimate authority you and shadsy are separated by 0.02 and that puts him on the podium, but the said  u.a. will have to explain where that 0. 02 came from. I ask as an interested party given that I am only 0.9 further behind!

Pleased to have won in the two contests (Boxmoor and Tamworth) , but came completely unstuck in Manchester where I had totally failed to pick up that the ramping was for real, so after that it was all down to damage limitation. One of those times where the actual result more than makes up for my diabolical prediction error. 


Anyway congrats to iainbhx, Toylyyev and  shadsy.

[johnloony]

Feb 3, 2022 21:08:23 GMT robbienicoll said:

15 entries to open the month, with shadsy and andykernow making a very welcome debut and return respectively. Unfortunately, andykernow missed out the Manchester and Tamworth predictions and therefore receives 200 faults for those. Johnloony receives 2 for going 1 under in both Cotswold and Boxmoor and kevinf receives 3 for going over in Manchester.

Bah humbug. I did not go 1 under in Cotswold. My prediction was Con 56 LD 44. I think that Piers Corbyn must have hacked into the forum and edited my message to make me look silly.

[johnloony]

Büosagob:

Eastleigh: LD 52 Con 22 Lab 18 Grn 4 Ref 4
SW&T: LD 42 Ind 26 Con 19 Lab 13
Wealden: LD 60 Con 31 SDP 9

[andykernow]

Well, having completely messed up last week, am trying again and seeing if I can at least get the number of contests right!!

Eastleigh - Central - Lib Dem Hold

Lib Dem - 51%
Labour - 30%
Conservative - 15%
Green - 8%
Reform UK - 2%

Somerset West & Taunton - Alcombe - Lib Dem Gain from Ind

Lib Dem - 52%
Independent - 25%
Conservative - 15%
Labour - 8%

Wealden - Hailsham South - Lib Dem Gain from Con

Lib Dem - 49%
Conservative - 38%
Soc Dem Party - 13%

[kevinf]

Let’s see if I can count to a hundred this week…
Eastleigh Central - LibDem 37, Lab 28, Con 20, Green 10, RefUK 5
Somerset Alcombe - LibDem 50, Con 20, Ind 18, Lab 12
Wealden Hailsham - LibDem 54, Con 42, SDP 4

[peterl]

Eastleigh Central - LibDem 42, Lab 31, Con 15, Green 8, RefUK 4
Somerset Alcombe - LibDem 44, Ind 25, Con 21, Lab 10
Wealden Hailsham - LibDem 60, Con 32, SDP 8

[Tony Otim]

Eastleigh: LD 38.7; Lab 31.0; Con 20.5; Grn 6.4; RefUk 3.4
Somerset West & Taunton: LD 41.6; Ind 28.9; Con 16.7; Lab 12.8
Wealden: LD 50.4; Con 43.9; SDP 5.7

[Richard Cromwell]

Alcombe, Somerset West and Taunton

LDM	46%
CON	19%
IND	18%
LAB	17%

Eastleigh Central, Eastleigh

LAB	37%
LDM	35%
CON	14%
GRN	11%
Reform	3%

Hailsham South, Wealden

LDM	54%
CON	31%
SDP	15%

[andrewp]

Eastleigh, Eastleigh Central. LD 40, Lab 34, Con 19, Green 4, Ref Uk 3.
Somerset West and Taunton. Alcombe. LD 49, Con 25, Ind 17, Lab 9
Wealden. Hailsham South. LD 57, Con 38, SDP 5

[manchesterman]

Alcombe, Somerset West and Taunton

LD 39%
IND 27%
CON 24%
LAB 10%


Eastleigh Central, Eastleigh

LD 41%
LAB 28%
CON 18%
GRN 7%
RUK 4%


Hailsham South, Wealden

LDM 51%
CON 40%
SDP 9%

[greenhert]

Eastleigh BC, Eastleigh Central: Liberal Democrats 45, Labour 27, Conservative 21, Green 5, Reform UK 2.
Somerset West & Taunton DC< Alcombe: Liberal Democrats 37, Independent (Lillis) 29, Conservative 27, Labour 7. Liberal Democrat gain from Independent.
Wealden DC, Hailsham South: Liberal Democrats 55, Conservative 42, SDP 3. Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.

[Robert Waller]

Eastleigh, Eastleigh Central. LD 43, Lab 30, Con 19, Green 5, Ref Uk 3

Somerset West and Taunton, Alcombe. LD 53, Con 25, Ind 11, Lab 11

Wealden, Hailsham South. LD 59, Con 37, SDP 4

[Toylyyev]

EASTLEIGH DC, Eastleigh Central:
Conservative 18, Labour 35.5, Liberal Democrat 35.6, Green 7.4, Reform UK 3.5.

SOMERSET WEST and TAUNTON DC, Alcombe:
Conservative 36, Labour 7, Liberal Democrat 50, Independent 7.

WEALDEN DC, Hailsham South:
Conservative 48.9, Liberal Democrat 49, SDP 2.1.

[iainbhx]

EASTLEIGH DC, Eastleigh Central: LDm 42, Lab 35, Con 13, Grn 7, REF-UK 3
SOMERSET WEST & TAUNTON DC, Alcombe: LDm 44, Con 33, Ind 12, Lab 11
WEALDEN DC, Hailsham S: LDm 48, Con 47, SDP 5

[rightleaning]

Eastleigh, Eastleigh Central. LD 48, C 24, Lab 18, Gn 8, Ref Uk 2.
Somerset West and Taunton. Alcombe. LD 42, C 30, Ind 20, Lab 8.
Wealden. Hailsham South. LD 48, Con 44, SDP 8

[dundas]

Eastleigh: LD 40 Lab 20 Con 21 Grn 15RefUk 4
Alcombe LD 40 ind 30 Con 20 Lab 10
Wealden: LD 50 Con 45 SDP 5

[yellowperil]

Eastleigh,Central:Con 17, Lab 35, LD 42, GP 4, Ref 2.
Somerset West & Taunton, Alcombe: Con 24, Lab 8, LD 40, Ind 28.
Wealden,Hailsham W: Con 44, LD 52, SDP 4 

[yellowperil]

I have noticed my entry for the Wealden ward says Hailsham W not Hailsham S as it should. I think that was a keyboard error rather than a geographical one,as I was well aware it was the South ward! - but by the time I noticed it it was very close to the deadline time and I might have had to explain a very late modification to the post

[Tony Otim]

We're all going to finish up with egg on our faces after a Labour gain in Eastleigh, a Consrvative hold in Wealden and an Ind or Con victory in Somerset....


Maybe....