Prediction Competition - February 2022

[robbienicoll]

There appears to be 25 by-elections during February.

- 6 by-elections on 3 February
- 3 on 10 February
- 9 on 17 February
- 1 on 23 February
- 6 on 23 February

17 by-elections are for District Councils, one of which was last contested in 2021 by-elections with the last regular election in 2019, 4 last contested in 2021 and the remaining 12 in 2019
5 are for Unitary Authorities, 4 of which were last contested in 2021 and 1 in 2019
2 are for a County Council last contested in 2021
1 is for a Metropolitan Borough last contested in 2021

Conservatives defend 11 of the by-election seats, 4 following the death of the previous councillor and 6 a resignation, 2 of which were sitting as Independent, and 1 disqualification
Independents defend 6 seats, 3 following the death of the previous councillor, 1 a resignation and 2 disqualifications
Liberal Democrats defend 4 seats, 1 following the death of the previous councillor and 3 a resignation
Labour defend 3 seats, 1 following the death of the previous councillor and 2 a resignation
Greens defend 1 seat following a resignation

With all candidates declared there is a full slate of 25 Conservative candidates, 22 Labour, 18 Liberal Democrats, 12 Greens, 2 TUSC and 1 apiece for Reform UK, For Britain, Freedom Alliance and Social Democratic Party together with 7 Independents and 1 No Description contesting 7 seats
- a total of 91 candidates for 25 seats.

Predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election.

[johnloony]

I predict

Cotswold: Con 55 LD 44
Dacorum BW: LD 49 Con 32 Lab 11 Grn 8
Dacorum Box: LD 45 Con 31 Lab 14 Grn 9
Leicester: Lab 54 Con 20 LD 17 FBM 5 Grn 4
Manchester: Lab 57 LD 23 Grn 12 Con 8
Tamworth: Con 50 Lab 38 Ind 12

[shadsy]

Can I join in?

Cotswold: Con 51 LD 49
Dacorum BW: LD 55 Con 20 Lab 10 Grn 15
Dacorum Box: LD 49 Con 25 Lab 14 Grn 12
Leicester: Lab 56 Con 14 LD 11 FBM 2 Grn 17
Manchester: Lab 51 LD 22 Grn 20 Con 7
Tamworth: Con 40 Lab 32 Ind 28

[dundas]

Cotswold Con 66.6 Lib Dem 33.4
Dacorum BW Con 36 Lab 14 Lib Dem 30 Green 20 (Con gain)
Darcorum Box Con 38 Lab 10 Lib Dem 40 Green 12
Leicester Con 25 Lab 50 Lib Dem 12 Green 8 For Britain 5
Manchester Con 14 Lab 45 Lib Dem 16 Green 25
Tamworth Con 36 Lab 27 Ind 37 (Ind gain)

[Richard Cromwell]

Campden & Vale, Cotswold

LDM	57%
CON	43%

Ancoats & Beswick, Manchester

LAB	49%
GRN	30%
LDM	17%
CON	4%

Boxmoor, Dacorum

GRN	46%
LDM	41%
LAB	8%
CON	5%

Berkhamsted West, Dacorum

GRN	34%
LDM	33%
LAB	18%
CON	15%

Spital, Tamworth

LAB	35%
CON	34%
IND	31%

Evington, Leicester

LAB	65%
GRN	18%
LDM	9%
CON	8%
For Britain	0%

[kevinf]

Cotswold. LD 51, Con 49
Dacorum BW. LD 42, Con 25, Green 22, Lab 11
Dacorum Box. LD 50, Con 30, Lab 12, Green 8
Leics. Lab 56, Con 19, Green 12, LD 10, FBM 3
Manchester. Lab 64, LD 19, Con 12, Green 8
Tamworth. Con 50, Lab 38, Ind 12

[andykernow]

Back after some internet issues and work/life conflict :-)

Cotswold - Campden - Lib Dem Gain from Con

Lib Dem -52%
Conservative - 48%

Dacorum - Berkhamstead - Lib Dem Hold

Lib Dem - 46%
Conservative - 21%
Green - 20%
Labour - 13%

Dacorum - Boxmoor - Lib Dem Hold

Lib Dem - 41%
Conservative - 28%
Green - 16%
Labour - 15%

Leicester - Evington - Labour Hold

Labour - 59%
Lib Dem - 17%
Green - 12%
Conservative - 11%
For Britain - 1%

[andrewp]

Feb 2, 2022 16:16:41 GMT andykernow said:

Back after some internet issues and work/life conflict :-)

Cotswold - Campden - Lib Dem Gain from Con

Lib Dem -52%
Conservative - 48%

Dacorum - Berkhamstead - Lib Dem Hold

Lib Dem - 46%
Conservative - 21%
Green - 20%
Labour - 13%

Dacorum - Boxmoor - Lib Dem Hold

Lib Dem - 41%
Conservative - 28%
Green - 16%
Labour - 15%

Leicester - Evington - Labour Hold

Labour - 59%
Lib Dem - 17%
Green - 12%
Conservative - 11%
For Britain - 1%

Flagging that that post misses 2 of the contests tomorrow.

[peterl]

Campden & Vale, Cotswold

LDM 55%
CON 45%

Ancoats & Beswick, Manchester

LAB 45%
GRN 27%
LDM 21%
CON 7%

Boxmoor, Dacorum

LDM 40%
GRN 30%
LAB 22%
CON 8%

Berkhamsted West, Dacorum

LDM 39%
LAB 25%
GRN 22%
CON 14%

Spital, Tamworth

IND 36%
CON 33%
LAB 31%

Evington, Leicester

LAB 59%
GRN 22%
LDM 12%
CON 6%
For Britain 1%

[Tony Otim]

Campden & Vale: LD 52.5; Con 47.5
Berkhamsted West: LD 52.7; Con 23.8; Grn 13.8; Lab 9.7
Boxmoor: LD 42.5; Con 29.2; Grn 14.4; Lab 13.9
Evington: Lab 59.4; Con 20.8; Grn 10.6; LD 8.1; For Britain 1.1
Ancoats & Beswick: Lab 61.0; LD 25.1; Grn 9.2; Con 4.7
Spital: Con 43.6; Ind 28.8; Lab 27.6

[andrewp]

Cotswold, Campden and Vale. LD 52, Con 48
Dacorum, Berkhamsted West. LD 47, Con 31, Green 13: Lab 9
Dacorum. Boxmoor. LD 43, Con 35, Lab 13, Green 9
Leicester. Evington. Lab 60, Con 16, LD 14, Green 9, FB 1
Manchester. Ancoats and Beswick. Lab 57, LD 24, Green 13, Con 6
Tamworth. Spital. Con 43, Lab 30, Ind 27.

[Robert Waller]

Cotswold, Campden and Vale. LD 53, Con 47

Dacorum, Berkhamsted West. LD 57, Con 28, Green 9: Lab 6

Dacorum. Boxmoor. LD 52, Con 28, Lab 10, Green 10

Leicester. Evington. Lab 60, Con 14, LD 16, Green 9, FB 1

Manchester. Ancoats and Beswick. Lab 59, LD 25, Green 11, Con 5

Tamworth. Spital. Con 47, Lab 37, Ind 16.

[yellowperil]

Cotswold, Camden & Vale: Con 46, LD 54.
Dacorum, Berkhamsted West: Con 29, Lab 7, LD 56, GP 8.
Dacorum, Boxmoor: Con 27, Lab 12, LD 54, GP 7.
Leicester, Evington: Con 15, Lab 60, LD 14, GP 10.5, FB 0.5.
Manchester, Ancoats & Beswick: Con 4, Lab 60, LD 12, GP 24.
Tamworth, Spital: Con 41, Lab 22, Ind 37.

[Toylyyev]

COTSWOLD DC, Campden and Vale:
Conservative 45, Liberal Democrat 55.

DACORUM DC, Berkhamsted West:
Conservative 39, Labour 8, Liberal Democrat 46, Green 7.
Boxmoor:
Conservative 27.5, Labour 6, Liberal Democrat 55, Green 11.5.

LEICESTER UA, Evington:
Conservative 27, Labour 37, Liberal Democrat 27, Green 8, For Britain Movement 1.

MANCHESTER MBC, Ancoats and Beswick:
Conservative 5, Labour 49, Liberal Democrat 37, Green 9.

TAMWORTH DC, Spital:
Conservative 53, Labour 26, Independent 21.

[iainbhx]

Cotswold DC, Campden and Vale : Con 52, LDm 48
Dacorum DC, Berkhampstead West : LDm 46, Con 36, Grn 12, Lab 6
Dacorum DC, Boxmoor : LDm 41, Con 37, Lab 14, Grn 8
Leicester UA, Evington: Lab 39.5, LDm 27, Con 23, Grn 9, For Britain 1.5
Manchester MBC, Ancoats and Beswick: Lab 48, LDm 35, Grn 12, Con 5
Tamworth DC, Spital: Con 43, Lab 31, Ind 26

[rightleaning]

Cotswold, Campden and Vale. C 55, LD 45,
Dacorum, Berkhamsted West. LD 45, C 25, Gn 20, Lab 10
Dacorum. Boxmoor. LD 46, C 25, Lab 17, Gn 12
Leicester. Evington. Lab 58, C 18, Gn 14, LD 8, FB 2
Manchester. Ancoats and Beswick. Lab 62, LD 19, Gn 12, C 7
Tamworth. Spital. C 58, Lab 25, Ind 17.

[greenhert]

Cotswold DC, Campden & Vale: Conservative 53, Liberal Democrats 47.
Dacorum BC, Berkhamsted West: Liberal Democrats 48, Conservative 25, Green 18, Labour 9.
Dacorum BC, Boxmoor: Liberal Democrats 50, Conservative 24, Labour 15, Green 11.
Leicester UA, Evington: Labour 57, Conservative 22.5, Green 10, Liberal Democrats 9, For Britain 1.5.
Manchester MBC, Ancoats & Beswick: Labour 60, Liberal Democrats 20, Green 10, Conservative 10.
Tamworth BC, Spital: Conservative 52, Labour 35, Independent (Loxton) 13.

[robbienicoll]

15 entries to open the month, with shadsy and andykernow making a very welcome debut and return respectively. Unfortunately, andykernow missed out the Manchester and Tamworth predictions and therefore receives 200 faults for those. Johnloony receives 2 for going 1 under in both Cotswold and Boxmoor and kevinf receives 3 for going over in Manchester.

Campden and Vale, Cotswold: 9 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with dundas, greenhert, iainbhx, johnloony, Right Leaning and shadsy Conservative hold.
Berkhamsted West, Dacorum: 13 Liberal Democrat hold, with dundas Conservative gain and Richard Cromwell Green gain.
Boxmoor, Dacorum: 14 Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 2% (dundas) to 27.5% (Toylyyev), and Richard Cromwell Green gain.
Evington, Leicester: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 10% (Toylyyev) to 47% (Richard Cromwell).
Ancoats and Beswick, Manchester: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 12% (Toylyyev) to 45% (kevinf).
Spital, Tamworth: 11 Conservative hold, with dundas and peterl Independent gain and Richard Cromwell Labour gain.

Results are available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14zor-y0A1YpVJB_vcZfDcTfE2vqV6j6zIZg-nvh_RrA/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Robert Waller]

With Tamworth, and awaiting the authoritative final figures, I thinks congratulations for the week are in order to iainbhx and Toylyyev, and also to shadsy who made a strong debut and may just about have ascended the podium, or got very close to it ...!

[robbienicoll]

Feb 4, 2022 13:20:55 GMT Robert Waller said:

With Tamworth, and awaiting the authoritative final figures, I thinks congratulations for the week are in order to iainbhx and Toylyyev , and also to shadsy who made a strong debut and may just about have ascended the podium, or got very close to it ...!

Results are now updated, and these are indeed the headlines!