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Post by Rutlander on Feb 18, 2022 13:07:47 GMT
I always thought Oundle was the sort of place that the Lib Dems might have a chance in. Bit like Oakham in Rutland or Stamford in Lincolnshire. And an even closer comparison is Uppingham - both have a sense of a public school with small town attached. The schoolmasters are more liberal than you might expect and have provided LibDem councillors in the past in both towns. But the current Oundle seat includes a very large swathe of villages so the public-school town element is much diluted. A very good LD performance but their win was more down to squeezing the minor parties than a collapse in CON support despite partygate and the resigned cllr's circumstances. Higher turnout than in the all-out elections which shows how hard fought it was (Peter Bone kept mentioning canvassing in the by-election). |
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Post by batman on Feb 18, 2022 13:12:47 GMT
it is the Tories' strongest ward in Grimsby AFAIK & there was a pretty sharp swing to Labour. If I'm right about that, repeated constituency-wide the Tories would not win. calm down a little. It was a 10.25% swing to Labour since 2021 and a 6% swing to Labour compared to 2019. Labour would need a 11.1% swing to gain Grimsby on the current boundaries. OK thanks Andrew. impressive swing since last year certainly |
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Post by andrewp on Feb 18, 2022 13:13:19 GMT
I always thought Oundle was the sort of place that the Lib Dems might have a chance in. Bit like Oakham in Rutland or Stamford in Lincolnshire. And an even closer comparison is Uppingham - both have a sense of a public school with small town attached. The schoolmasters are more liberal than you might expect and have provided LibDem councillors in the past in both towns. But the current Oundle seat includes a very large swathe of villages so the public-school town element is much diluted. A very good LD performance but their win was more down to squeezing the minor parties than a collapse in CON support despite partygate and the resigned cllr's circumstances. Higher turnout than in the all-out elections which shows how hard fought it was (Peter Bone kept mentioning canvassing in the by-election). I think the circumstances of the previous councillor’s resignation and the fact that the Conservative candidate lived a way away, were pretty helpful conditions for the LD’s. |
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Post by andrewp on Feb 18, 2022 13:24:15 GMT
I’m actually quite pleased to see, in last nights results, that local factors are live and well in local by elections. Perhaps it’s accentuated this week by being a parliamentary recess and there having been fewer Westminster stories this week. A Con gain from LD where the LD council is seen to be doing something unpopular and a relatively nearby LD gain from Con where the last councillor had done something unpopular and the LDs had the more local candidate.
Of course on Twitter, there is very little understanding of the fact that local factors can influence the outcome of a local election. I sincerely hope that some Twitter accounts are trolls, because if people genuinely think that any place that votes for a party that you don’t like, is a place to be written off as a hellhole that you never want to visit, then that’s a sad indictment on them.
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sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979 
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Post by sirbenjamin on Feb 18, 2022 13:46:45 GMT
I’m actually quite pleased to see, in last nights results, that local factors are live and well in local by elections. Perhaps it’s accentuated this week by being a parliamentary recess and there having been fewer Westminster stories this week. A Con gain from LD where the LD council is seen to be doing something unpopular and a relatively nearby LD gain from Con where the last councillor had done something unpopular and the LDs had the more local candidate. Of course on Twitter, there is very little understanding of the fact that local factors can influence the outcome of a local election. I sincerely hope that some Twitter accounts are trolls, because if people genuinely think that any place that votes for a party that you don’t like, is a place to be written off as a hellhole that you never want to visit, then that’s a sad indictment on them. It's the same moronic comments and memes on every single local by election every week. It's sorely tempting to unfollow the Britain Elects account because of this rubbish. |
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Post by andrewp on Feb 18, 2022 13:50:04 GMT
I’m actually quite pleased to see, in last nights results, that local factors are live and well in local by elections. Perhaps it’s accentuated this week by being a parliamentary recess and there having been fewer Westminster stories this week. A Con gain from LD where the LD council is seen to be doing something unpopular and a relatively nearby LD gain from Con where the last councillor had done something unpopular and the LDs had the more local candidate. Of course on Twitter, there is very little understanding of the fact that local factors can influence the outcome of a local election. I sincerely hope that some Twitter accounts are trolls, because if people genuinely think that any place that votes for a party that you don’t like, is a place to be written off as a hellhole that you never want to visit, then that’s a sad indictment on them. It's the same moronic comments and memes on every single local by election every week. It's sorely tempting to unfollow the Britain Elects account because of this rubbish. Some of those people that moronically comment that they never want to go anywhere that votes Tory are denying themselves Dartmoor, Most of the Cornish coast, the Yorkshire Dales, the Peak District etc. What a life. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Feb 18, 2022 13:52:52 GMT
GWBWI
Lab +62
Con +43
Grn +13
LDm -10
Didn't look like this early on, but turned into another week where nearly everyone had some good results balanced out by bad results elsewhere.
Good for the Tories in (Collingham (N&S) and Wigston Meadowcourt, but almost exactly balanced out by Thurston and Oundle.
Terrible for the LibDems in Wigston, but good in Oundle and goodish in a couple of others.
This is all without Tavistock North, of course, but I'm away this weekend (weather permitting) so won't be updating till Monday.
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Feb 18, 2022 15:40:35 GMT
Not a bad trade for the Lib Dems really, losing a district seat on a council where they will still have a huge majority but gaining a seat on a unitary council they previously had no representation on.
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Post by johnloony on Feb 18, 2022 17:47:49 GMT
It's the same moronic comments and memes on every single local by election every week. It's sorely tempting to unfollow the Britain Elects account because of this rubbish. Some of those people that moronically comment that they never want to go anywhere that votes Tory are denying themselves Dartmoor, Most of the Cornish coast, the Yorkshire Dales, the Peak District etc. What a life. They are not denying themselves anything. They are (presumably) enriching themselves with the cultural diversity of inner London, Bristol, Brighton, or Liverpool. |
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Post by andrewp on Feb 18, 2022 17:58:54 GMT
Some of those people that moronically comment that they never want to go anywhere that votes Tory are denying themselves Dartmoor, Most of the Cornish coast, the Yorkshire Dales, the Peak District etc. What a life. They are not denying themselves anything. They are (presumably) enriching themselves with the cultural diversity of inner London, Bristol, Brighton, or Liverpool. But they could enjoy both. Both are enriching. |
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Post by andrew111 on Feb 18, 2022 20:29:33 GMT
They are not denying themselves anything. They are (presumably) enriching themselves with the cultural diversity of inner London, Bristol, Brighton, or Liverpool. But they could enjoy both. Both are enriching. It was a tragedy of gargantuan proportions when all those beautiful Scottish mountains defected from Lib Dem to SNP! (strangely, they still look just the same...) |
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Post by andrewteale on Feb 18, 2022 22:43:18 GMT
It was a 10.25% swing to Labour since 2021 and a 6% swing to Labour compared to 2019. Labour would need a 11.1% swing to gain Grimsby on the current boundaries. ... compared to december 2019. 3.7 since may 19. There seems to have been no election in one of Labour's stronger wards in the constituency in 2021 (no idea why; also going by the council website because the result is not on leap yet) but just putting that ward as casting 0 votes, a 10.25 swing compared to 2021 across the constituency is exactly what Labour need to tie the Conservatives in Grimsby. So yes, on this swing Labour would gain Grimsby. Mind you, an above-average Labour swing in the constituency's most affluent ward wouldn't exactly be surprising at the next ge. West Marsh is one of three North East Lincolnshire wards which only has two councillors (the other two are Waltham and Wolds wards, which are safe Tory seats in the Cleethorpes constituency). 2021 was the year off for all three of those wards. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Feb 19, 2022 7:30:02 GMT
It's the same moronic comments and memes on every single local by election every week. It's sorely tempting to unfollow the Britain Elects account because of this rubbish. Some of those people that moronically comment that they never want to go anywhere that votes Tory are denying themselves Dartmoor, Most of the Cornish coast, the Yorkshire Dales, the Peak District etc. What a life. What people say they will do in life and what they actually do in life are sometimes (a little bit) different. |
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Post by andrew111 on Feb 19, 2022 8:53:39 GMT
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Post by andrewp on Feb 19, 2022 9:24:26 GMT
Some of those people that moronically comment that they never want to go anywhere that votes Tory are denying themselves Dartmoor, Most of the Cornish coast, the Yorkshire Dales, the Peak District etc. What a life. What people say they will do in life and what they actually do in life are sometimes (a little bit) different. Oh I know. I’m sure they go to those places which is why that comment, which is made every single week is so moronic. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Feb 19, 2022 10:43:05 GMT
Is North Tavistock going for some sort of record late declaration here, and does it count if it is storm-assisted?
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Feb 19, 2022 11:01:23 GMT
Is North Tavistock going for some sort of record late declaration here, and does it count if it is storm-assisted? Both Toylyyev and phil156 posted thad the count had been postponed until this morning, presuming they started at 10.00am that would mean they’ve only been going an hour, but their social media seems to have weekends off. |
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Post by Rutlander on Feb 19, 2022 12:00:54 GMT
West Devon DC, Tavistock
Con - 379
Lib Dem - 337
Green - 137
Labour - 85
Conservative GAIN from Independent
(acc. ALDC tweet)
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
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Post by Chris from Brum on Feb 19, 2022 12:55:20 GMT
West Devon DC, Tavistock Con - 379 Lib Dem - 337 Green - 137 Labour - 85 Conservative GAIN from Independent (acc. ALDC tweet) File under "close but no cigar". Also under "vote Labour/Green, get Tory". |
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Post by middleenglander on Feb 19, 2022 13:17:01 GMT
West Devon DC, Tavistock Con - 379 Lib Dem - 337 Green - 137 Labour - 85 Conservative GAIN from Independent (acc. ALDC tweet) Green vote was 163 |
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