|
|
Post by andrewp on Feb 18, 2022 7:37:21 GMT
the spectacular Conservative gain in Wigston is another example of a council with a longstanding monolithic majority (in this case for the Lib Dems) seeing a very big swing against it in a by-election. Other recent examples are Leicester which of course is next door, and Manchester. It may be that these results are connected, but of course there could be other specific local reasons for each result and we shouldn't consider these results as connected in any way. I think it’s been noticeable that the Lib Dem recent results in councils that they already control have generally not been nearly as good as those in councils in which they are not in control. See North Norfolk, Eastleigh, Oadby. I’m not sure that necessarily is because the Lib Dem council is unpopular, but it’s much harder to get a good result when already in control, whichever party you are. |
|
|
|
Post by iang on Feb 18, 2022 8:04:20 GMT
And it is a perfectly proper argument, whoever is in control, to say that monolithic control does not make for good governance, so vote for a decent opposition. The Tory candidate seems to have been high profile from a mark made further up the thread too. I'd think batman is right - it seems like the Manchester result of a couple of weeks back in reverse |
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Feb 18, 2022 9:25:53 GMT
'Forward With the People'! 'Solidarity With the working Classes'! 'Unity Is Our Strength'! You can just see the pebble glasses, the forage cap with little red badges on it, can't you? A step back to happier days. Pushing it close? Really? |
|
|
|
Post by phil156 on Feb 18, 2022 9:29:28 GMT
TAVISTOCK WARD count delayed to Saturday
|
|
|
|
Post by jamesdoyle on Feb 18, 2022 9:29:54 GMT
'Forward With the People'! 'Solidarity With the working Classes'! 'Unity Is Our Strength'! You can just see the pebble-dash glasses, the forage cap with little red badges on it, can't you? A step back to happier days. Pushing it close? Really? Personally, I would _love_ to see some pebbledash glasses. |
|
|
|
Post by La Fontaine on Feb 18, 2022 9:58:11 GMT
Stainburn and Clifton is a Labour gain. No figures yet. Apparently Lab 354 Con 294 Good result in the ancestral home. |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Feb 18, 2022 10:11:45 GMT
'Forward With the People'! 'Solidarity With the working Classes'! 'Unity Is Our Strength'! You can just see the pebble-dash glasses, the forage cap with little red badges on it, can't you? A step back to happier days. Pushing it close? Really? Personally, I would _love_ to see some pebbledash glasses. They would protect the wearer from the Bugblatter Beast of Traal, that is for sure... |
|
|
|
Post by batman on Feb 18, 2022 10:25:10 GMT
'Forward With the People'! 'Solidarity With the working Classes'! 'Unity Is Our Strength'! You can just see the pebble glasses, the forage cap with little red badges on it, can't you? A step back to happier days. Pushing it close? Really? it is the Tories' strongest ward in Grimsby AFAIK & there was a pretty sharp swing to Labour. If I'm right about that, repeated constituency-wide the Tories would not win. calm down a little. |
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Feb 18, 2022 10:33:14 GMT
'Forward With the People'! 'Solidarity With the working Classes'! 'Unity Is Our Strength'! You can just see the pebble glasses, the forage cap with little red badges on it, can't you? A step back to happier days. Pushing it close? Really? it is the Tories' strongest ward in Grimsby AFAIK & there was a pretty sharp swing to Labour. If I'm right about that, repeated constituency-wide the Tories would not win. calm down a little. It was a 10.25% swing to Labour since 2021 and a 6% swing to Labour compared to 2019. Labour would need a 11.1% swing to gain Grimsby on the current boundaries. |
|
|
|
Post by timmullen1 on Feb 18, 2022 10:34:17 GMT
'Forward With the People'! 'Solidarity With the working Classes'! 'Unity Is Our Strength'! You can just see the pebble glasses, the forage cap with little red badges on it, can't you? A step back to happier days. Pushing it close? Really? it is the Tories' strongest ward in Grimsby AFAIK & there was a pretty sharp swing to Labour. If I'm right about that, repeated constituency-wide the Tories would not win. calm down a little. According to Andrew’s Preview Labour have only held the Ward once, in 2012, on just 29% of the vote. The Tories have been gradually chipping away at the LDs since 2018, taking the final LD seat last May with 53% of the vote. |
|
Merseymike
Independent
Don't vote. It only encourages them.
Posts: 37,245
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on Feb 18, 2022 10:48:28 GMT
it is the Tories' strongest ward in Grimsby AFAIK & there was a pretty sharp swing to Labour. If I'm right about that, repeated constituency-wide the Tories would not win. calm down a little. It was a 10.25% swing to Labour since 2021 and a 6% swing to Labour compared to 2019. Labour would need a 11.1% swing to gain Grimsby on the current boundaries. Although some of these type of seats are going to be unpredictable given that the dominance of Brexit will not be present. And certainly Grimsby was a seat where that issue was very dominant and the leave vote very high |
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Feb 18, 2022 10:49:09 GMT
Oundle turn out is 35.4%
|
|
Merseymike
Independent
Don't vote. It only encourages them.
Posts: 37,245
Member is Online
|
Post by Merseymike on Feb 18, 2022 10:49:23 GMT
And it is a perfectly proper argument, whoever is in control, to say that monolithic control does not make for good governance, so vote for a decent opposition. The Tory candidate seems to have been high profile from a mark made further up the thread too. I'd think batman is right - it seems like the Manchester result of a couple of weeks back in reverse I wonder if Labour are regretting not standing a candidate? |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Feb 18, 2022 11:10:40 GMT
And it is a perfectly proper argument, whoever is in control, to say that monolithic control does not make for good governance, so vote for a decent opposition. The Tory candidate seems to have been high profile from a mark made further up the thread too. I'd think batman is right - it seems like the Manchester result of a couple of weeks back in reverse I wonder if Labour are regretting not standing a candidate? Well, given they have never come anything other than last in all elections since 2003, I doubt they would have done very well... |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Feb 18, 2022 11:13:48 GMT
The amount of detail and research that goes into Andrew’s previews is phenomenal. I don’t always get round to reading them but when I do I always enjoy them. Collingham is of particular interest this week as my mum lives there and has been complaining about the volume of literature from Debbie Darby in particular. As I think I noted on another thread, DD seems to be linked to the Ashfield Independents and her campaign has gone through the whole range of Lib Dem by-election templates - Mail merge letters, a3 risograph leaflets, fake local newspaper and even a “lifestyle magazine”. Her election expense return should be quite illuminating! Another example of "too many leaflets, that is putting everyone I know off"? |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 18, 2022 11:31:33 GMT
Oundle turnout 35.4%.
|
|
|
|
Post by olympian95 on Feb 18, 2022 11:36:39 GMT
LD gain Oundle
|
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Feb 18, 2022 11:38:05 GMT
Oundle
LD 1683
Con 1423
Lab 337
Green 124
|
|
Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group" - Douglas Adams
Posts: 7,493
|
Post by Chris from Brum on Feb 18, 2022 11:39:11 GMT
Oundle LD 1683 Con 1423 Lab 337 Green 124 Phew! Redemption. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 31,095
|
Post by The Bishop on Feb 18, 2022 11:56:29 GMT
Blimey. What the hell happened there? Liz Darling - say no more. Cryptic comments like this don't really help, what about her exactly? |
|
