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Post by owainsutton on Mar 4, 2022 21:49:46 GMT
Try reading what I said. GE2005 was when Labour lost the demographic that's now electing Red Wall Tories. My experience in Huddersfield 2019 looking at boxes, the Tory vote still correlates strongly with owner occupation, house size, and leafiness. But they do get more votes than they used to in WWC Council estates, still not enough to win. Labour do best in ethnic minority areas and trendy young graduate places now, while the votes used to pile up highest in social rental areas. Tories also win the postal vote in national elections where I am. Combination of the elderly and working professionals. That surely means they should do better in low turnout by-ekections, other things being equal. The homeowner effect not coming through in your data? |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Mar 4, 2022 21:50:29 GMT
Why do some (either disingenuous or extraordinarily stupid) people insist on repeating this ridiculous, insane and contemptible bollocks that the demographics of UK elections have totally reversed since 2015? Try reading what I said. GE2005 was when Labour lost the demographic that's now electing Red Wall Tories. How come at that election though Labour not only won but also did better in the North generally in terms of holding on to marginals? I'm sure more of their losses were in London and the south, such as Putney, Braintree, etc, but they still kept Bolton West and Bury North and probably still had 5-figure majorities in many now Red Wall seats. The decline may have started in GE2005 but it's a bit of a stretch to say they 'lost' the demographic. |
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Post by andrew111 on Mar 4, 2022 21:55:35 GMT
My experience in Huddersfield 2019 looking at boxes, the Tory vote still correlates strongly with owner occupation, house size, and leafiness. But they do get more votes than they used to in WWC Council estates, still not enough to win. Labour do best in ethnic minority areas and trendy young graduate places now, while the votes used to pile up highest in social rental areas. Tories also win the postal vote in national elections where I am. Combination of the elderly and working professionals. That surely means they should do better in low turnout by-ekections, other things being equal. The homeowner effect not coming through in your data? As I said, yes, homeowners tend to vote Tory as they always have, and the bigger the home, the more likely. We get our best vote in the same places though |
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redtony
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Post by redtony on Mar 4, 2022 22:07:56 GMT
In London the Labour vote still or has possibly increaced, on council estates theTory vote is still concentrated amongst owner occupied houses not flats butthatisgetting les and less as they areconvertedintosmall flats
In London Council housing is multi ethnic but most of them consider them selves to be working class and that is what unites them as Labour.
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Post by where2travel on Mar 4, 2022 22:27:59 GMT
Why is this seat often described as inner city? I don't know Birmingham well (at least not outside the centre), but this constituency doesn't look inner city from a geographical perspective (when it takes in spaghetti junction and borders Sutton Coldfield). That's not to say it doesn't have a lot of the characteristics often associated with inner city seats (in relation to housing, deprivation etc). What would equivalent seats be in other cities like London or Manchester (appreciating they may not have obvious comparisons)?
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Post by andrewp on Mar 4, 2022 23:38:02 GMT
Why is this seat often described as inner city? I don't know Birmingham well (at least not outside the centre), but this constituency doesn't look inner city from a geographical perspective (when it takes in spaghetti junction and borders Sutton Coldfield). That's not to say it doesn't have a lot of the characteristics often associated with inner city seats (in relation to housing, deprivation etc). What would equivalent seats be in other cities like London or Manchester (appreciating they may not have obvious comparisons)? I’m not sure I’ve seen it described as inner city. Its not inner city, It’s pretty suburban with a mixture of council estates and owner occupied territory. I’ve seen it described as red wall too, it’s not that either. Equivalent seats in London is an interesting question. Looking at the census stats. Enfield North or Dagenham and Rainham |
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Post by bjornhattan on Mar 4, 2022 23:59:20 GMT
Why is this seat often described as inner city? I don't know Birmingham well (at least not outside the centre), but this constituency doesn't look inner city from a geographical perspective (when it takes in spaghetti junction and borders Sutton Coldfield). That's not to say it doesn't have a lot of the characteristics often associated with inner city seats (in relation to housing, deprivation etc). What would equivalent seats be in other cities like London or Manchester (appreciating they may not have obvious comparisons)? I’m not sure I’ve seen it described as inner city. Its not inner city, It’s pretty suburban with a mixture of council estates and owner occupied territory. I’ve seen it described as red wall too, it’s not that either. Equivalent seats in London is an interesting question. Looking at the census stats. Enfield North or Dagenham and Rainham In terms of the kinds of areas covered, another similar seat would appear to be Leeds East. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 5, 2022 1:36:36 GMT
It's a little sui generis as constituencies go because of the unusual history of suburban housing developments in Birmingham. It is a very complicated patchwork of different types of inner suburb, both council and privately built.
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Post by John Chanin on Mar 5, 2022 8:28:28 GMT
Why is this seat often described as inner city? I don't know Birmingham well (at least not outside the centre), but this constituency doesn't look inner city from a geographical perspective (when it takes in spaghetti junction and borders Sutton Coldfield). That's not to say it doesn't have a lot of the characteristics often associated with inner city seats (in relation to housing, deprivation etc). What would equivalent seats be in other cities like London or Manchester (appreciating they may not have obvious comparisons)? I’m not sure I’ve seen it described as inner city. Its not inner city, It’s pretty suburban with a mixture of council estates and owner occupied territory. I’ve seen it described as red wall too, it’s not that either. Equivalent seats in London is an interesting question. Looking at the census stats. Enfield North or Dagenham and Rainham It's a little sui generis as constituencies go because of the unusual history of suburban housing developments in Birmingham. It is a very complicated patchwork of different types of inner suburb, both council and privately built. Enfield North is a good call. |
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Post by owainsutton on Mar 5, 2022 8:33:58 GMT
Try reading what I said. GE2005 was when Labour lost the demographic that's now electing Red Wall Tories. How come at that election though Labour not only won but also did better in the North generally in terms of holding on to marginals? I'm sure more of their losses were in London and the south, such as Putney, Braintree, etc, but they still kept Bolton West and Bury North and probably still had 5-figure majorities in many now Red Wall seats. The decline may have started in GE2005 but it's a bit of a stretch to say they 'lost' the demographic. Bolton West: of the 8000 that voted in 1997 but stayed at home in 2001, two-thirds were Labour. Similar in Bury North. |
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Post by owainsutton on Mar 5, 2022 8:35:41 GMT
Try reading what I said. GE2005 was when Labour lost the demographic that's now electing Red Wall Tories. My experience in Huddersfield 2019 looking at boxes, the Tory vote still correlates strongly with owner occupation, house size, and leafiness. But they do get more votes than they used to in WWC Council estates Right-to-buy has meant that the owner-occupier vote from the latter has risen substantially over recent decades. |
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Post by iainbhx on Mar 5, 2022 9:19:54 GMT
My experience in Huddersfield 2019 looking at boxes, the Tory vote still correlates strongly with owner occupation, house size, and leafiness. But they do get more votes than they used to in WWC Council estates Right-to-buy has meant that the owner-occupier vote from the latter has risen substantially over recent decades. It's falling off now. As the tenants who became owners leave the properties, quite a lot of them fall into the hands of the buy-to-let landlords. |
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Post by greenhert on Mar 5, 2022 10:34:21 GMT
It's a little sui generis as constituencies go because of the unusual history of suburban housing developments in Birmingham. It is a very complicated patchwork of different types of inner suburb, both council and privately built. Yes although psephologically and demographically it is similar to Nottingham North, if not quite as poor. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Mar 5, 2022 15:02:11 GMT
Right-to-buy has meant that the owner-occupier vote from the latter has risen substantially over recent decades. It's falling off now. As the tenants who became owners leave the properties, quite a lot of them fall into the hands of the buy-to-let landlords. Indeed. Gone are the days when you could identify a Tory voter by the different front door. Even until a few years ago that was a good rule of thumb. |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Mar 5, 2022 17:19:12 GMT
Why is this seat often described as inner city? I don't know Birmingham well (at least not outside the centre), but this constituency doesn't look inner city from a geographical perspective (when it takes in spaghetti junction and borders Sutton Coldfield). That's not to say it doesn't have a lot of the characteristics often associated with inner city seats (in relation to housing, deprivation etc). What would equivalent seats be in other cities like London or Manchester (appreciating they may not have obvious comparisons)? Blackley and Broughton? Particularly if the boundary extended to include Sutton Park though I appreciate it is larger than Heaton Park... |
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Post by andrew111 on Mar 5, 2022 20:07:18 GMT
Right-to-buy has meant that the owner-occupier vote from the latter has risen substantially over recent decades. It's falling off now. As the tenants who became owners leave the properties, quite a lot of them fall into the hands of the buy-to-let landlords. And also ex council houses are significantly cheaper than the same house sold from the start, even on quite "respectable" estates. There are still a lot of substandard system built council houses around too.. |
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Post by andrewp on Jul 1, 2022 14:20:00 GMT
Birmingham Erdington by-election expenditure figs (£100k limit):
LAB: £93,049.95
CON: £87,289.93
REFUK: £18,811.74
TUSC: £3,053.37
LD: £411.97
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 2, 2022 8:52:32 GMT
Birmingham Erdington by-election expenditure figs (£100k limit): LAB: £93,049.95 CON: £87,289.93 REFUK: £18,811.74 TUSC: £3,053.37 LD: £411.97 So the Tories did take it pretty seriously, then. Makes the Labour result appear just that bit more creditable. |
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johng
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Post by johng on Jul 2, 2022 9:05:58 GMT
Birmingham Erdington by-election expenditure figs (£100k limit): REFUK: £18,811.74 £18,811.74 for 293 votes. That's £64.20 a vote.
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clyde1998
SNP
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Post by clyde1998 on Jul 2, 2022 10:03:01 GMT
Birmingham Erdington by-election expenditure figs (£100k limit): REFUK: £18,811.74 £18,811.74 for 293 votes. That's £64.20 a vote. Even Scottish Voice would be embarrassed. |
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