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Post by liverpoolliberal on Mar 4, 2022 2:14:17 GMT
Just got back from the count, here are my takeaways from the result:
- Apathy the biggest winner. Trying to draw national conclusions from a 27% turnout is a mug's game but...
- Feels like it's an indicator that the current Labour lead in the polls is a purely due to anger with Boris, not any real feeling of enthuasism at the idea of Labour in Government. (This could also be a lack of enthuasism for Birmingham Labour's performance at running the City. This would back up what we're feeling in the wards we're going for in Brum this May.)
- If I'm a Tory I'm quietly happy, given the awful last couple of months for the government. Probably indicates that they're not going to have an awful night in the City in May.
- LD feast or famine since the 2019 GE continues, pretty much impossible to draw any meaningful conclusion from our result other than our floor is still so low in seats where we have no network or capacity.
- Greens and the Farage-less Brexit Party are really bad at these kind of elections, where you'd think there'd be ample room for a "plague on both your houses" candidate.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765 
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Post by clyde1998 on Mar 4, 2022 2:26:55 GMT
Decent result for Labour I thought, Tories not a total disaster, yet again third and down get smashed in by-elections (George Galloway in Batley and Spen the only exception i can think of). But the minor parties like Reform struggling to get noticed. Doubt Lib Dems will care much, I’m not aware of any real effort or spend going on and still dining out on North Shropshire.I thought the Tories leaking that video late told a story (and I didn’t think what she said 7 years ago was anything much anyway) if they thought it was tight they‘d have run it loud and early. Running it late it seemed more about making her less credible once elected. Finally, if I was Gary Sambrook I would be thinking long and hard tonight if I really thought I could hold my seat under Boris Johnson. Realistically the Lib Dems aren't going to win this seat, so there isn't much of a point in putting much effort or resources in. Conservative seats in the South and East of England will, and should, be the primary targets of the party. If the party can achieve 30+ seats in the next election, I think they'll be viewed more credibly again by the media and therefore the public - which will have a knock-on affect in seats where the Lib Dems have the potential to do well, but are currently too far away to make a serious challenge. |
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Mar 4, 2022 2:35:00 GMT
Just got back from the count, here are my takeaways from the result: - Apathy the biggest winner. Trying to draw national conclusions from a 27% turnout is a mug's game but... - Feels like it's an indicator that the current Labour lead in the polls is a purely due to anger with Boris, not any real feeling of enthuasism at the idea of Labour in Government. (This could also be a lack of enthuasism for Birmingham Labour's performance at running the City. This would back up what we're feeling in the wards we're going for in Brum this May.) - If I'm a Tory I'm quietly happy, given the awful last couple of months for the government. Probably indicates that they're not going to have an awful night in the City in May. - LD feast or famine since the 2019 GE continues, pretty much impossible to draw any meaningful conclusion from our result other than our floor is still so low in seats where we have no network or capacity. - Greens and the Farage-less Brexit Party are really bad at these kind of elections, where you'd think there'd be ample room for a "plague on both your houses" candidate.I think with the Greens there's a lot of sympathy for the party (people who would seriously consider voting for the party if the Greens were viewed as relevant), but people feel they need to vote for Labour or the Lib Dems (dependent of the seat) to ensure the Conservatives don't win the seat; I think there have been very clear signs of this in the recent by-election results: where the Lib Dems have done well, Labour have done very poorly (and vice-versa). The leader of the West Berkshire Greens stood as the candidate in Chesham and Amersham and noted there was a lot of support for the Green's policies, but anti-Conservative tactical voting lead to a reduction in the Green vote share (albeit a lot less than Labour saw). |
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,591
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Post by bsjmcr on Mar 4, 2022 3:34:57 GMT
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,813
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Post by iang on Mar 4, 2022 6:02:53 GMT
Why is she a “fake journalist”, and if so shouldn’t you do your civic duty and ring West Midlands Police and have her removed from the count? This lady has as much credibility as the Labour Liar who said the weather was terrible and the vote was close. The difference is we know who this person is but not the Labour Liar. The media and journalists lie all day and every day so she should fit in very well with her London colleagues. It rained all day. The weather was terrible. I don't know why you are vociferously claiming this is a lie |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2022 6:40:13 GMT
Tories are still ahead of their 2015 performance here and not far behind their 2017 result.
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Post by heslingtonian on Mar 4, 2022 7:02:24 GMT
Birmingham Erdington feels a bit similar to Batley & Spen - both built up constituencies with significant Brexit-voting socially conservative white working class populations which will ensure a decent Conservative core vote. However, in both this vote is slightly outweighed by a strong Labour BAME vote along with a scattering of Labour-inclined middle close voters. Both clearly still lean Labour but neither can be taken for granted.
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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 4, 2022 8:06:43 GMT
Just got back from the count, here are my takeaways from the result: - Apathy the biggest winner. Trying to draw national conclusions from a 27% turnout is a mug's game but... - Feels like it's an indicator that the current Labour lead in the polls is a purely due to anger with Boris, not any real feeling of enthuasism at the idea of Labour in Government. (This could also be a lack of enthuasism for Birmingham Labour's performance at running the City. This would back up what we're feeling in the wards we're going for in Brum this May.) - If I'm a Tory I'm quietly happy, given the awful last couple of months for the government. Probably indicates that they're not going to have an awful night in the City in May. - LD feast or famine since the 2019 GE continues, pretty much impossible to draw any meaningful conclusion from our result other than our floor is still so low in seats where we have no network or capacity. - Greens and the Farage-less Brexit Party are really bad at these kind of elections, where you'd think there'd be ample room for a "plague on both your houses" candidate. It might sound odd to say but a 27% turnout was arguably pretty good given the GE turnout was only 53%. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Mar 4, 2022 8:34:29 GMT
Why is she a “fake journalist”, and if so shouldn’t you do your civic duty and ring West Midlands Police and have her removed from the count? Back in the old world Journalists had something to do with news. The first sentence in her tweet is news. The second sentence is opinion. Back in the old world Editors had something to do with opinion. Whatever you think about that tweet, this is the basic problem with British journalism now. I don't think new media helps - no room for "news on front pages, op/ed inside" you have one tweet to grab attention and the reader then moves on, so hot takes abound and news/opinion is merged. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Mar 4, 2022 8:38:57 GMT
Decent result for Labour I thought, Tories not a total disaster, yet again third and down get smashed in by-elections (George Galloway in Batley and Spen the only exception i can think of). But the minor parties like Reform struggling to get noticed. Doubt Lib Dems will care much, I’m not aware of any real effort or spend going on and still dining out on North Shropshire.I thought the Tories leaking that video late told a story (and I didn’t think what she said 7 years ago was anything much anyway) if they thought it was tight they‘d have run it loud and early. Running it late it seemed more about making her less credible once elected. Finally, if I was Gary Sambrook I would be thinking long and hard tonight if I really thought I could hold my seat under Boris Johnson. Realistically the Lib Dems aren't going to win this seat, so there isn't much of a point in putting much effort or resources in. Conservative seats in the South and East of England will, and should, be the primary targets of the party. If the party can achieve 30+ seats in the next election, I think they'll be viewed more credibly again by the media and therefore the public - which will have a knock-on affect in seats where the Lib Dems have the potential to do well, but are currently too far away to make a serious challenge. I don't know about anyone else, but I didn't hear anything about this election from the party, not even an announcement of the candidate. If they told me it was so low key I didn't notice. We're talking about a near-paper candidate here (and rightly so IMO, purely on cost-benefit analysis.) |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,730
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Post by Chris from Brum on Mar 4, 2022 8:42:13 GMT
I'd be surprised if our agent had to spend more than 5 minutes completing the expenses return. AIUI at least Reform spent money on leaflets for little return.
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Post by matureleft on Mar 4, 2022 8:50:35 GMT
An OK result for the two main parties in a constituency that, other than in Timothy's fantasy world in 2017, is never likely to be very competitive. The very low turnout, even in a seat with a history of those, tells us little other than the absence of motivation for politics of any kind (they certainly couldn't complain about choice!).
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jamesg
Forum Regular
Posts: 253
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Post by jamesg on Mar 4, 2022 8:54:48 GMT
This lady has as much credibility as the Labour Liar who said the weather was terrible and the vote was close. The difference is we know who this person is but not the Labour Liar. The media and journalists lie all day and every day so she should fit in very well with her London colleagues. It rained all day. The weather was terrible. I don't know why you are vociferously claiming this is a lie Maybe he was indoors. |
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bd
Labour
Posts: 109
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Post by bd on Mar 4, 2022 9:01:01 GMT
There's an interesting pattern in the vote shares among the various party descriptions he's used. In local elections, he performed best as a Socialist Alternative candidate and there's been a noticeable drop off in his vote shares since becoming a TUSC candidate. He didn't start using TUSC until after he had lost his council seat, which is a much more important factor. Though it is odd that the one election since then when he went back to Socialist Alternative was the only one where he actually gained ground. In the 2018 Council elections TUSC stood in two seats in the Erdington Constituency and averaged 2.4% of the vote. The numbers are fairly small so statistically of limited value but it suggests that by getting 2.1% they got about what they can expect here. I spent all day in the seat yesterday and TUSC had a street stall set up opposite the Labour campaign centre in the pedestrianised High Street. They seemed to spend most energy in heckling the Labour volunteers coming and going which I am sure gave them a degree of satisfaction but not much else besides. A decent result for Labour which doesn’t give the Party cause for crowing but there’s nothing for anyone else to crow about either. I think the Party machine will see it simply as job done. Paulette will be a good MP. |
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ilerda
Conservative
Posts: 1,096
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Post by ilerda on Mar 4, 2022 9:09:06 GMT
If the Tories should be scared of RefUK based on this result then Labour should be absolutely petrified of TUSC.
Or, alternatively, we could all accept it’s a load of nonsense and pretty irrelevant to the outcome of an actual election and partisan journalists just like doing it to boost their retweets and feel like they’ve got something insightful to say.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,615
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Post by ricmk on Mar 4, 2022 9:14:21 GMT
Decent result for Labour I thought, Tories not a total disaster, yet again third and down get smashed in by-elections (George Galloway in Batley and Spen the only exception i can think of). But the minor parties like Reform struggling to get noticed. Doubt Lib Dems will care much, I’m not aware of any real effort or spend going on and still dining out on North Shropshire.I thought the Tories leaking that video late told a story (and I didn’t think what she said 7 years ago was anything much anyway) if they thought it was tight they‘d have run it loud and early. Running it late it seemed more about making her less credible once elected. Finally, if I was Gary Sambrook I would be thinking long and hard tonight if I really thought I could hold my seat under Boris Johnson. Realistically the Lib Dems aren't going to win this seat, so there isn't much of a point in putting much effort or resources in. Conservative seats in the South and East of England will, and should, be the primary targets of the party. If the party can achieve 30+ seats in the next election, I think they'll be viewed more credibly again by the media and therefore the public - which will have a knock-on affect in seats where the Lib Dems have the potential to do well, but are currently too far away to make a serious challenge. Agree with that - also the Lib Dems would need an unpopular Labour government to make headway in a seat like this. None of the circumstances right to get anywhere here at the moment. And as you say it won't be here at the next GE, but it may be elsewhere. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 4, 2022 9:41:18 GMT
Can we just have a word of praise for Birmingham's electoral services, who conducted a very efficient count which matched exactly the number of verified ballots, and managed to get the result out at 1 AM?
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Post by Wisconsin on Mar 4, 2022 10:30:06 GMT
Glory to Birmingham electoral services!
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Post by elinorhelyn on Mar 4, 2022 10:35:07 GMT
Can we just have a word of praise for Birmingham's electoral services, who conducted a very efficient count which matched exactly the number of verified ballots, and managed to get the result out at 1 AM? Low turnout certianly helped. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Mar 4, 2022 10:46:28 GMT
there has been a noticeable trend in all the by-elections of this parliament in how effectively Labour and the LDs can squeeze one another's vote in seats where one or the other is most likely to win. without being unkind the Lib Dems didn't have much of a vote to start with |
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