CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,723
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Post by CatholicLeft on Mar 3, 2022 23:23:14 GMT
Labour getting in the expectations management early. I was in the constituency for a short time today and wouldn't describe the weather as "absolutely grim". It wasn't particularly cold, there wasn't much wind, and it was raining slightly. In the north, we'd be putting on Factor 50. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 4, 2022 0:05:54 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 4, 2022 0:18:05 GMT
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Post by johnloony on Mar 4, 2022 0:18:35 GMT
Someone on Twitter says turnout 27%
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Post by ideal4radio on Mar 4, 2022 0:19:38 GMT
So you're defending an inner City seat, that's been Labour since 1945, that you held in 2019 with a majority of over 3,600 ( despite your Leader being unelectable ), two years into a 3rd/4th term of opposition .... and you feel you have to " manage expectations " ?? Jesus !
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 4, 2022 0:25:02 GMT
Sky going live now
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 4, 2022 0:26:38 GMT
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Post by greenhert on Mar 4, 2022 0:28:27 GMT
This means that a candidate could retain their deposit in this by-election with as few as 851 votes, depending on the number of rejected ballot papers (which will probably be less than 100 here). |
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Post by independentukip on Mar 4, 2022 0:37:04 GMT
I was in the constituency for a short time today and wouldn't describe the weather as "absolutely grim". It wasn't particularly cold, there wasn't much wind, and it was raining slightly. In the north, we'd be putting on Factor 50. A liar about the weather and a liar about it being tight. Presumably this anonymous source is a current Labour MP or well in with Starmer regime to become one soon. Edit: Not a reference to you CatholicLeft , reply was to wrong post, sorry. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 4, 2022 0:37:16 GMT
Even though turnout was very low at the general election I didn't think it would go below 25% at the by-election because of the nature of the constituency with some high turnout areas like the boundary with Sutton Coldfield. It isn't like Leeds Central in 1999.
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,054
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Post by jamie on Mar 4, 2022 0:41:15 GMT
Well that’s not exactly shocking. The kind of people who are interested in voting Reform were not voting Labour in December 2019 (even if a minority of them might in 2024). |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2022 0:42:53 GMT
From the Birmindgham Mail. Seems the Tories are also playing the expectation management game (although not very well as absolutely nobody is going to believe that a Labour *majority* of over 50% is a realistic target).
"Gary Sambrook: "Labour ought to win by 9,000 or this will be a bad night for them"
Conservative MP Gary Sambrook insists the Conservatives are not expected to win tonight - but that it will be a 'bad night' for Labour if they don't win by a much bigger majority than at the 2019 turnout. It's a clear hint that a Tory victory is now highly unlikely - and that the Tory reaction is likely to be based around the margin between Robert Alden and Paulette Hamilton"
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 4, 2022 0:43:50 GMT
Well that’s not exactly shocking. The kind of people who are interested in voting Reform were not voting Labour in December 2019 (even if a minority of them might in 2024). It also opens a question of whether “Partygate” has led to a bit of an anti-Johnson protest vote amongst some Tories. |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,619
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Post by ricmk on Mar 4, 2022 0:44:41 GMT
Well that’s not exactly shocking. The kind of people who are interested in voting Reform were not voting Labour in December 2019 (even if a minority of them might in 2024). Coming third may not be as impressive as it sounds. Let’s see if the third place party hold their deposit, before we declare anyone as major challengers to the big two here. |
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Post by independentukip on Mar 4, 2022 0:50:50 GMT
Well that’s not exactly shocking. The kind of people who are interested in voting Reform were not voting Labour in December 2019 (even if a minority of them might in 2024). Coming third may not be as impressive as it sounds. Let’s see if the third place party hold their deposit, before we declare anyone as major challengers to the big two here. Indeed. The 1st sentence doesn't automatically lead to the 2nd and with deposit loss well on the cards it seems like another fake journalist wants to get a bit of attention. |
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,054
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Post by jamie on Mar 4, 2022 0:51:50 GMT
It also opens a question of whether “Partygate” has led to a bit of an anti-Johnson protest vote amongst some Tories. Potentially given it’s a by-election, but the national polling for Reform is the same as it was pre-Partygate (they did get a bounce from it but it quickly faded). |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 4, 2022 0:54:04 GMT
Coming third may not be as impressive as it sounds. Let’s see if the third place party hold their deposit, before we declare anyone as major challengers to the big two here. Indeed. The 1st sentence doesn't automatically lead to the 2nd and with deposit loss well on the cards it seems like another fake journalist wants to get a bit of attention. Why is she a “fake journalist”, and if so shouldn’t you do your civic duty and ring West Midlands Police and have her removed from the count? |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 4, 2022 1:03:48 GMT
Result just in and Paulette Hamilton has won. Sky went to it too late.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 4, 2022 1:04:23 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 4, 2022 1:07:44 GMT
Hamilton, Paulette Adassa (Labour Party) 9,413 (55.5%)
Alden, Robert James Cambray (The Conservative Party Candidate) 6,147 (36.3%)
Nellist, David John (Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition) 360 (2.1%)
Brookes, Jack Matthew (Reform UK) 293 (1.7%)
Harper-Nunes, Siobhan Bridget (Green Party) 236 (1.4%)
Dargue, Lee James (Liberal Democrats) 173 1.0%)
Lutwyche, Michael Louis (Independent) 109 0.6%)
Mbondiah, Melody Chipo (Christian Peoples Alliance) 79 (0.5%)
O'Rourke, Thomas Peter (Independent) 76 (0.4%)
Sir NosDa, The Good Knight [Beech, Mark William] (The Official Monster Raving Loony Party) 49 (0.3%)
Holmes, Clifton Richard (Independent) 14 (0.1%)
Bishop, David Laurence (Militant Bus-Pass Elvis Party) 8 (0.0%)
Majority 3,266
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