neilm
Non-Aligned
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Post by neilm on Feb 26, 2022 12:24:25 GMT
Like Airdrie and Shotts, or Sleaford in recent times.
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Post by andrew111 on Feb 26, 2022 12:31:46 GMT
Will this become a forgotten by election? For some reason the main news does not seem to focus on it...
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Feb 26, 2022 12:51:48 GMT
Will this become a forgotten by election? For some reason the main news does not seem to focus on it... Maybe because they’re not picking up the sniff of an upset from any of the parties on the ground, so if it looks like a fairly routine hold it’s going to be more low key like Old Bexley & Sidcup than Shropshire North.
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Post by jakegb on Feb 26, 2022 13:39:33 GMT
For some reason the main news does not seem to focus on it... Maybe because they’re not picking up the sniff of an upset from any of the parties on the ground, so if it looks like a fairly routine hold it’s going to be more low key like Old Bexley & Sidcup than Shropshire North. Agreed it is likely to be an easy hold. But this time last year, with the wind blowing in the Tories' favour, things could have been very different...
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Post by andrew111 on Feb 26, 2022 17:56:38 GMT
For some reason the main news does not seem to focus on it... Maybe because they’re not picking up the sniff of an upset from any of the parties on the ground, so if it looks like a fairly routine hold it’s going to be more low key like Old Bexley & Sidcup than Shropshire North. I don't think there is much room for by-elections in the Press at the moment. Of course there is still plenty of room for celebrity film-flam, but all the serious journalists are excitably busy...
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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 1, 2022 1:15:47 GMT
I hope turnout isn't too embarrassingly low at this by-election. It's had even less coverage than expected in the national and local press for obvious reasons. Lowest by-election turnouts since 1945 according to Wikipedia. "2012 Manchester Central by-election 18.2% 1999 Leeds Central by-election 19.6% 2022 Southend West by-election 24.0% 1958 Shoreditch and Finsbury by-election 24.9% 1999 Wigan by-election 25.0% 2000 Tottenham by-election 25.4% 2012 Cardiff South and Penarth by-election 25.7% 2016 Batley and Spen by-election 25.8% 1974 Newham South by-election 25.9% 2012 Middlesbrough by-election 26.0% 2012 Croydon North by-election 26.5% 2000 West Bromwich West by-election 27.6% 2011 Feltham and Heston by-election 28.8% 2000 Preston by-election 29.6% 1999 Kensington and Chelsea by-election 29.7%" en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Lowest_turnout
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Post by johnloony on Mar 1, 2022 2:04:06 GMT
I hope turnout isn't too embarrassingly low at this by-election. It's had even less coverage than expected in the national and local press for obvious reasons. Lowest by-election turnouts since 1945 according to Wikipedia. "2012 Manchester Central by-election 18.2% 1999 Leeds Central by-election 19.6% 2022 Southend West by-election 24.0%1958 Shoreditch and Finsbury by-election 24.9% 1999 Wigan by-election 25.0% 2000 Tottenham by-election 25.4% 2012 Cardiff South and Penarth by-election 25.7% 2016 Batley and Spen by-election 25.8% 1974 Newham South by-election 25.9% 2012 Middlesbrough by-election 26.0% 2012 Croydon North by-election 26.5% 2000 West Bromwich West by-election 27.6% 2011 Feltham and Heston by-election 28.8% 2000 Preston by-election 29.6% 1999 Kensington and Chelsea by-election 29.7%" en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Lowest_turnoutThe "turnout" is usually defined in terms of the number of valid votes, not counting spoilt votes. It usually doesn't make much difference (obviously) but in Southend West the turnout was thus only 22.4%.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Mar 1, 2022 2:24:37 GMT
The "turnout" is usually defined in terms of the number of valid votes, not counting spoilt votes. It usually doesn't make much difference (obviously) but in Southend West the turnout was thus only 22.4%. Any ideas on why that is? The people who have casted invalid votes did turnout ultimately.
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Post by johnloony on Mar 1, 2022 3:02:13 GMT
The "turnout" is usually defined in terms of the number of valid votes, not counting spoilt votes. It usually doesn't make much difference (obviously) but in Southend West the turnout was thus only 22.4%. Any ideas on why that is? The people who have casted invalid votes did turnout ultimately. I guess it's because the results of parliamentary elections (as reported in newspapers, books, references etc.) almost always give the number of votes for each candidate but not the number of spoilt votes. If you know the electorate, it is therefore easy to calculate the net turnout, excluding the spoilt votes. Even though the number of spoilt votes is given as an official part of the declaration, it is not usually reported. Therefore the gross turnout (including spoilt votes) is more difficult to determine. Of course in the vast majority of such elections the proportion of spoilt votes is negligible anyway.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,715
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Post by J.G.Harston on Mar 1, 2022 3:02:31 GMT
The "turnout" is usually defined in terms of the number of valid votes, not counting spoilt votes. It usually doesn't make much difference (obviously) but in Southend West the turnout was thus only 22.4%. Any ideas on why that is? The people who have casted invalid votes did turnout ultimately. And from memory, it made the difference between me scraping to 19.9% in Brightside and wonderfully acheiving 20.0%. I know that in my spreadsheets I've been inconsistant, and it would be useful for a definitive directive.
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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 1, 2022 3:10:36 GMT
The "turnout" is usually defined in terms of the number of valid votes, not counting spoilt votes. It usually doesn't make much difference (obviously) but in Southend West the turnout was thus only 22.4%. Any ideas on why that is? The people who have casted invalid votes did turnout ultimately. Interesting point. I've noticed that in most countries they do usually include spoilt papers in the turnout figures. But for whatever reason the tradition in the UK has been to ignore them.
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ilerda
Conservative
Posts: 1,042
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Post by ilerda on Mar 1, 2022 9:00:03 GMT
Some countries (including Spain IIRC) report it as abstention as opposed to turnout. Not sure why, or if it really makes any difference, but it's interesting to consider the alternative perspective they view it from.
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Post by phil156 on Mar 2, 2022 16:24:19 GMT
As normal the count will begin shortly after 10pm tomorrow
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Post by greenhert on Mar 2, 2022 17:56:07 GMT
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andrewp
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Member is Online
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Post by andrewp on Mar 2, 2022 18:05:17 GMT
Gary Sambrook has written to Keir Starmer
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Post by mrsir on Mar 2, 2022 18:15:35 GMT
The video is pretty damning and genuinely depressing.
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Post by Wisconsin on Mar 2, 2022 22:04:11 GMT
Where is the video?
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neilm
Non-Aligned
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Post by neilm on Mar 2, 2022 22:23:02 GMT
And now she's had a pop at two Labour MPs.
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Post by Wisconsin on Mar 3, 2022 8:55:23 GMT
Which two? Where?
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 3, 2022 9:08:02 GMT
Presumably Khalid and Shabana Mahmood; the video is of a 2015 speech she gave around Malcolm X, and she’s basically arguing that the Black community’s interests/needs are being ignored by the Asian community, and the need to placate them. The comment as reported is a very throwaway one - “we have two MPs who, well who are supposed to represent us”, so I presume she means Khalid and Shabana as the two Asian MPs.
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