The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 6, 2022 11:39:49 GMT
As far as *non*-disparate constituencies are concerned, I don't think that Bootle has been mentioned yet. And of course this was even more true prior to 2010.
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Post by andrewteale on Jan 6, 2022 13:41:48 GMT
Yes, but Royton & Saddleworth is very easy to create. the Royton seat which existed before 1950, and was perhaps surprisingly held by the Conservatives in the 1945 election, would have been very similar to a Royton & Saddleworth seat were one to be created. Not very similar at all. The name of the Royton seat of 1918-50 is misleading because the seat was actually based on all the small towns east and north of Rochdale. The Conservative hold of Royton in 1945 is partly (a) this was a seat where the Liberal vote refused to die, meaning Labour were unusually weak, and (b) the seat then included Norden and Bamford, which hadn't been incorporated into Rochdale until the 1930s. At the time Saddleworth was, of course, in a different county. A Royton and Saddleworth seat would have only Royton itself and Shaw & Crompton in common with the 1918-50 Royton seat. |
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Post by peterm on Jan 22, 2022 16:35:03 GMT
What about Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire?
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Post by greenhert on Jan 22, 2022 21:57:29 GMT
What about Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire? South Pembrokeshire is not that affluent. In terms of Welsh constituencies Cardiff North is surely the most disparate socio-economically. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 22, 2022 22:51:34 GMT
Could make a case for Preseli Pembrokeshire, from Milford Haven's industrial port and oil refinery to Haverfordwest as a market town, to the Pembrokeshire coast resort towns and villages, to agricultural Pembrokeshire, and the fishing port of Fishguard.
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Post by peterm on Jan 23, 2022 16:06:16 GMT
I cited Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire rather in terms of cultural disparity (i.e. Welsh Carmarthen v 'Little England beyond Wales' South Pembs).
In terms of Welsh constituencies - socio-economically Cardiff Central (Cyncoed/Penylan v Adamsdown) might have the edge over North.
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Post by greenhert on Jan 23, 2022 17:54:21 GMT
I cited Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire rather in terms of cultural disparity (i.e. Welsh Carmarthen v 'Little England beyond Wales' South Pembs). In terms of Welsh constituencies - socio-economically Cardiff Central (Cyncoed/Penylan v Adamsdown) might have the edge over North. Penylan is not as wealthy as Lisvane, which is in Cardiff North and where houses with values >£1 million can be found in abundance. No wonder Lisvane was the only Conservative ward in Cardiff in 1995, an annus horribliis for the Conservatives in local government elections; Lisvane's Conservative vote often exceeds 70%. |
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Post by iainbhx on Jan 23, 2022 18:12:53 GMT
I cited Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire rather in terms of cultural disparity (i.e. Welsh Carmarthen v 'Little England beyond Wales' South Pembs). Always amused by Plaid's strength in and around Tenby, although I believe some of that is very much a personal vote. |
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
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Post by cibwr on Jan 25, 2022 8:58:50 GMT
I cited Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire rather in terms of cultural disparity (i.e. Welsh Carmarthen v 'Little England beyond Wales' South Pembs). Always amused by Plaid's strength in and around Tenby, although I believe some of that is very much a personal vote. Like a lot of more rural areas, personal votes are important. My dad was Chair of Penally Community Council and the local County Councillor was and is from Y Blaid. |
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
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Post by bsjmcr on Feb 16, 2022 0:25:24 GMT
Being from the north west, Essex is probably one of the counties I am least familiar with (I always get Chelmsford and Colchester mixed up*…) and haven’t been to. I was therefore surprised how seemingly disparate Basildon and Billericay is, despite being united in unanimous Conservative support since its 2010 inception. I was also surprised that UKIP didn’t come second in 2015. research.mysociety.org/sites/imd2019/area/wmc_basildon-and-billericay/lsoa/*But at least I can differentiate between Bury and Burnley. Also impressive is the Labour result in Billericay in 1997, reducing an over 22,000 majority to just over 1,300. Granted there were boundary changes and I don’t know much about the MP at the time if there were any issues (she seemed like a bit of a character from what I read but was there a positive or negative personal vote depending on how you look at the result?) , but this sort of result now seems unthinkable in B&B. Also read South West Bedfordshire - 21,000+ majority to just 132, now 18,000 for Andrew Selous, who would probably be a candidate for a “pointless answer” if there was ever an MP round, as I’ve never heard of him, but maybe that’s how he has rebuilt the majority. Back to topic, SW Bedford doesn’t seem super-affluent either, yet has been super-safe since 2010 so this isn’t a new “Brexit” majority either a la Mansfield. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 16, 2022 3:44:23 GMT
Being from the north west, Essex is probably one of the counties I am least familiar with (I always get Chelmsford and Colchester mixed up*…) and haven’t been to. I was therefore surprised how seemingly disparate Basildon and Billericay is, despite being united in unanimous Conservative support since its 2010 inception. I was also surprised that UKIP didn’t come second in 2015. research.mysociety.org/sites/imd2019/area/wmc_basildon-and-billericay/lsoa/*But at least I can differentiate between Bury and Burnley. Also impressive is the Labour result in Billericay in 1997, reducing an over 22,000 majority to just over 1,300. Granted there were boundary changes and I don’t know much about the MP at the time if there were any issues (she seemed like a bit of a character from what I read but was there a positive or negative personal vote depending on how you look at the result?) , but this sort of result now seems unthinkable in B&B. Also read South West Bedfordshire - 21,000+ majority to just 132, now 18,000 for Andrew Selous, who would probably be a candidate for a “pointless answer” if there was ever an MP round, as I’ve never heard of him, but maybe that’s how he has rebuilt the majority. Back to topic, SW Bedford doesn’t seem super-affluent either, yet has been super-safe since 2010 so this isn’t a new “Brexit” majority either a la Mansfield. SW Beds is mostly various forms of commuter middle-class with a little bit of council estate around Dunstable and Houghton. Absolutely stuffed with typical Thatcher-Blair-Cameron voters and it's quite likely that the slightly wealthier and more rigidly Tory Leighton Buzzard area (which is more typical home counties market town compared to Dunstable basically being an outskirt of Luton) saved the Tories in 97 |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 16, 2022 3:45:35 GMT
Actually SW Beds is a good entry for this thread as the two elements are Dunstable and Leighton-Linslade and I'm struggling to think of anything the two have in common
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Feb 16, 2022 4:05:14 GMT
Andrew Selous is popular and works the constituency hard.
Never heard a bad word about him.
The constituency is basically Leighton Buzzard + Dunstable + Houghton Regis. All three feel like Labour should do well in (Leighton not so much as the others) and if Labour are on an 'up' election when Selous retires, I would keep an eye on that seat.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 16, 2022 8:37:10 GMT
Milton Keynes North has some starkly contrasting areas. You have Olney in the north, which is quite rich, while Fishermead in central Milton Keynes has high levels of deprivation and a significant Somali community.
The result of a new city rapidly expanding not far from long-established market towns and villages, admittedly they're separated by the A509 and fields, but it's still the same seat.
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Feb 16, 2022 11:03:12 GMT
I cited Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire rather in terms of cultural disparity (i.e. Welsh Carmarthen v 'Little England beyond Wales' South Pembs). In terms of Welsh constituencies - socio-economically Cardiff Central (Cyncoed/Penylan v Adamsdown) might have the edge over North. Penylan is not as wealthy as Lisvane, which is in Cardiff North and where houses with values >£1 million can be found in abundance. No wonder Lisvane was the only Conservative ward in Cardiff in 1995, an annus horribliis for the Conservatives in local government elections; Lisvane's Conservative vote often exceeds 70%. You'll find that detached houses in Penylan and Cyncoed go for well over the million these days. The issue is more that there's a mixture of housing types in those areas. The most incongruous bit has to be the top end of Tŷ-gwyn Road, where the side streets on one side are million-quid-plus detached houses, and the other side is high-rise student residences. Cardiff South and Penarth is another disparate one – there are parts of Penarth that look like Lisvane, but then it also includes parts of Cardiff where supermarkets have to remind their customers not to come shopping in their pyjamas ( no joke). |
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sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
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Post by sirbenjamin on Feb 16, 2022 11:53:00 GMT
Much of this disparity is a direct result of the ludicrously unfair 'social housing' system (and welfare generally) that we have in this country of course.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 16, 2022 12:36:53 GMT
Actually SW Beds is a good entry for this thread as the two elements are Dunstable and Leighton-Linslade and I'm struggling to think of anything the two have in common SW Bedfordshire is the opposite of a disparate constituency. It's very middle of the road throughout, which is why there's so many swing voters there. There's some fairly grotty parts of Houghton Regis and some wealthy villages like Studham but on the whole there are not great contrasts of wealth and poverty. I reckon in 1997 and 2001 the Conservatives and Labour would have been about neck and neck in both Dunstable and Leighton-Linslade (the latter is a nicer town on the whole but Dunstable has a slightly more robust Tory vote perhaps partly as a reaction against Luton - Leighton Buzzard and Linslade always had a bit more of a Lib Dem vote). Labour would obviously have had a decent lead then in Houghton Regis and the Tory lead would have come from the villages . Milton Keynes North is a better shout in this part of the world |
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